Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I still have my doubts with this system in regards to the warm nose. MRX went out of its way to downplay any threat. They specifically used the NAM as a reference for a non-winter event. I totally understand their trepidation with models all over the place. But the 6z NAM.....
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I thought the faster solutions tended to not cut....or is this for the 50/50 which would suppress the second wave?
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Significant change by the gfs.
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Southeast trend by the gfs. Man, it almost caved. Not there yet, but close.
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Yeah, it is digging less and almost 150-200 miles further along.
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This run of the GFS is faster with slightly less digging. Might result in a less robust system. That would be good for the Valley.
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18z GFS looks slightly more progressive at 42. Let’s see where this ends up.
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Let us not discount how cold the 12z GEFS is. Crazy cold.
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Yep forgot about that. I do think it does a better job with the warm-nose(maybe Jeff said that in the other thread). But tough right now to discount the steady Euro run which actually has support from the GEFS and its own EPS. Guessing one of the two blinks by 0z. There is an argument to be made that it will cut, but that almost requires an amped solution over Louisiana. And the model with amping problems is the one cutting it. Tough call. Never thought I would see the day where the Euro has the consistently most progressive model run.
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Yep, delayed their release.
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Normally, I would never even give a GFS/CMC combo any weight in comparison a Euro/UK/GEFS/EPS combo. I mean that last combo is stout. I would throw out the GFS/CMC solutions or minimize their influence in my thinking. However, they have done ok with the past couple of storms. Seems like the Euro woefully missed the warm-nose for E TN. Not sure the GFS did much better though! That said, this will be a test of those models as they were recently updated. FTR, I am not sure the GEFS received the update or not. Seems like it was supposed to, but I never checked.
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This is like overtime in college football. We got our 2pt conversion with the Euro. Now to 18z, to see if the GFS converts or folds. The 12z GEFS rejoined the Euro camp. The models with the newer updates are the GFS and CMC. They are either too amped, or their updates have better physics in the region.
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EPS slp placement barely moved compared to 0z.
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It is not often that I get to share 1' totals form a model deemed "Dr. No" while the rest of the models say, "No." I have low confidence in this map. It needs some support outside of the UK.
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LOL. There is more....
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There is way more snow in E TN. Snow falls almost through 120.
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Still plenty of snow falling at 111 over NE TN.
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Lots of ice/mix over TRI on that Euro run.
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I mean the Euro barely(and I mean barely budged). It might even be further east around Hatteras than 0z.
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In other news, the 12z Euro held serve.
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From Pivotal: (12 Jan 2022) GDPS and RDPS maps may be delayed or missing due to data feed problems at Environment Canada.
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Appears the CMC is "broke down"(poor grammar noted...but used anyway). LOL.
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12z GEFS is a slop-fest in NE TN. The 500 pattern argues that the cold should be scoured out, and it would be rain here. Cold just hangs on forever in NE TN and SW VA. Not sure that is actually what happens. A lot of times modeling will erroneously bleed cold air into TRI. Verbatim it is is snow to sleet to rain. One note, the 12z GFS is slightly colder across NE TN and SW VA. @Daniel Boone what do you think?
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Agree on all counts, but will add that I am in the camp that wants snow. LOL.
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Just digging around while waiting on 12z. When I first started following modeling, if I saw a d8-14 that looked like that, I was pretty excited - BN temps and AN precip w/ a great looking storm track. We may not get anything or we may do well...but tough to draw up a winter pattern better than that. Also, here is the analog package which was released yesterday. 1994 stands out. Some cold/stormy analogs in that package.
