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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy about that map, it is not even close to being done...not even close in NE TN.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Lots of blues, light blues, and dark blues on that Kuchera. That is a run for the ages right there. LOL Wow!!!!
  3. Carvers Gap
    And 240....yup. Let's reel one in from ten days out. LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Long range discussion...but the Euro at 228 says, "Hello." @AMZ8990....waay out there, but that is two straight runs.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Always high bust potential....LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Also seeing snow in Birmingham, AL, breaking out as the system swings through. Might be the western solutions are looking decent right now?
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the cold front is pushing off the Plateau right now. Precip is filling in quickly.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Basically, the first line of precip slides past, the lee side forms, and precip builds back quickly. Can see that happening right now to the west and southwest of Knoxville. Fingers crossed modeling is correct!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Any of our Chattanooga folks seeing a changeover?
  10. Carvers Gap
    I like what I am seeing on the radar to the west of Knoxville and to the south. Looks a lot like that 16z run of the HRRR. Precip slides past, lee side forms, precip blossoms to the west.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Bring it!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the system is beginning to back up the flow just a bit as a line to the west of Knox Co is beginning to build - real time and not a model comment.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Been out running in this mess. Just got back.
  14. Carvers Gap
    17z HRRR is backing down a hair, but yeah...we roll with that right now!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Have to get all of the way to the end of that run. Lots more snow fell after that image. Fingers crossed, Jed!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Euro Kuchera...shift east a hair with heavier snow. Final run before the modeled storm.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Well, time to go running...this is gonna be a slog. Moderate rain. Been trying to get up the nerve or about two hours. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    15z HRRR( @Reb mentioned the HRRR trends earlier) has really beefed up in comparison to 12z. I am about out of memory space, but a Kuchera Ratio from 12z(full run) and 15z(full run) would be interesting to look at at the trend. Even comparing the same time of day is impressive.
  19. Carvers Gap
    MRX update...9:49AM .DISCUSSION... The main change for the morning update will be to end the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning, as obs around the area show wind gusts falling below criteria in the last few hours. The forecast for snowfall this afternoon still appears on track, as the latest model guidance shows a changeover to snow starting in the Plateau between 1-2 PM, in the TN Valley between 2-4 PM, and in NE TN/SW VA between 4-6 PM. Behind this transition zone, there will be a 3-4 hour period where snowfall rates could be high, around an inch per hour possible with localized snow bands producing even higher rates. Steep low level lapse rates and some low level CAPE around 175 J/kg may even produce some thundersnow in NE TN/SW VA around 4-6 pm, as shown by the HRRR. Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly during and in the hours after the transition to snow. The forecast snow accumulations and the W/W/A products will not be changed at this time.
  20. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I thought about it - very briefly. By the time it starts snowing there...not sure I can make it back to TRI. Might try to swing up there Saturday if roads permit. I suspect(if this verifies), they may have near blizzard conditions overnight and into early tomorrow. I have great respect for how bad the weather can get there...My scout troop (the year prior to me joining way back when) went up to the first bald to camp. There are stories that they couldn't hold their tents down(tents today are much more suitable for higher winds). About halfway through the night in howling winds and rain, they packed up and walked back to Carvers Gap to whatever transportation they had - not sure if they slept in the van or came home that night. These were pretty savvy kids and wouldn't normally pack-up...I have been up there a few times after big snow storms - waist deep drifts type stuff. White knuckle stuff coming back down. The road up to the gap(not sure if you have been) is on the shady side of the mountain. So, it gets super icy.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a westward expansion of snow on the 12z GFS, especially important for those along I-75 in John's neck of the woods and London/Corbin.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS looks very similar to 6z. By the time it runs again, this event will be under way. So, that is basically its last run(with the totality of the event) for folks to the west of TRI.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Pretty crazy. You can see the convective snow bands in the RGEM above. Some of those bands are picking up very light traces of snow into southern parts of Georgia.
  24. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM...
  25. Carvers Gap
    How does the Kuchera look?
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