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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 0z GEFS ensemble mean is a pretty decent improvement from 18z.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Not saying this is going to happen, bu the GEFS extended which comes out each evening was really a great looking pattern for much of its run.
  3. Carvers Gap
    ...And when I say "holds serve," I generally mean the storm is still there, trends haven't completely altered the idea of where the storm was depicted during previous runs, the synoptic set-up is still pretty much the same, and accumulations are generally where they were placed during the previous runs. Looks like the CMC might have indeed shaved some off the southwest edge near south/middle TN. Overall, the look is pretty similar on the 0z CMC.
  4. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC looks like it is going to hold serve again.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just drank some Mayfield's eggnog. Man, the wind is howling here.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That little lee side low might be a bit stronger as well, and is being better depicted as we get closer.
  7. Carvers Gap
    LOL, just now saw your comment. Snowbird's comment was the one that got me to thinking, and I was referring to that. And yes, very much agree with you and snowbird. I was just thinking it is not so much an adjustment in track as it is in flow backing...and your comment is spot on as well. When a slp forms, modeling has trouble with the NW quadrant. Will be a triumph in modeling if globals and mesoscale models successfully depict a finesse situation like a lee side low. Modeling has come a long way.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The models and digital stuff that I take to with me from this point onward are these: a couple of more runs of the Euro, the RGEM, the ARW, and radar returns. I just keep it simple with those four. All we can do at this point is monitor trends. Most good storms have an uptick in good trends right up to the event as models don't seem to ever catch-up to good storms. No idea if that happens with this. Depending on a lee side low is tricky business, but most modeling has it and climatology support that on a strong front like this per MRX.
  9. Carvers Gap
    WRF-ARW now has this... had been all over the place. Good model and we needed it on board in some fashion or another. You know, I am not sure this is really trending west as much as the lee side low is backing the flow of the storm. That is causing the flow to back just enough that the cold catches the precip and then orographic lift does its thing as well.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Need to go out further on that RGEM...there is more.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Good trends so far for TYS.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Here is the video update from MRX which they did at 7:00PM. There are couple of slides which show when the changeover is in various places. Very helpful and should answer your question almost to the minute for Kingsport. Yeah, that is a high degree of difficulty with snow on it!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Meaning expanding the warning area?
  14. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro basically shifts the entire precip axis back west maybe 75 miles...even in Ohio.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Looks like it is a bit slower, between hour 27 and 30 the line hits the valley and backs/slows down and precip depeens over the eastern valley. Overall, the line just looked a bit more robust. Lee side low drops to 999 vs 1001.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Should just be the motto for the forum. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Let me give it a look.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Crap. Mislabeled! That is the 18z Euro!!!!
  19. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro **edit**. Decent uptick in accumulations and increase in amounts along the western edge of 12z accumulations.
  20. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro has come a bit west. Nice, nice run.
  21. Carvers Gap
    MRX updated snow map...
  22. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS was putrid as was its ensemble. 6z was similar. So, 12z seems to be the outlier for that model during the past couple of days. Wonder if it is its progressive nature? Other modeling seems to be fairly settled.
  23. Carvers Gap
    18k NAM on board for NE TN. 3K NAM is going nuts - worth a look if you live from Knoxville or eastward.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is pretty much an awesome post right there.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Which wx office handles Dickenson Co?
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