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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Debatable whether the second system will be south of us. The 12z CMC is not. I don't trust the GFS with the first system, and that first system sets the wave pattern that will allow the second system to cut or go underneath. I would think both systems go south, but absolutely not written in stone yet for the second.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Second storm is going to be tough to forecast. The system for the 8th has trended SE over time. Modeling is struggling with the block right now. Like BNA says, just get the track right, and we will worry about the rest later.
  3. Carvers Gap
    12z updated... Such a range of options from the 12z suite for the 8/9th system. Going to depend on the angle that the systems takes. The GFS is very progressive and does a near loop to loop over Arkansas. To me, the para looks very realistic and matches the ICON very well. The CMC is a bit strung out. This is almost like trying to predict where a hurricane makes landfall while running parallel to the coast. The slightest degree of change in regards to angle of entry....changes forecasts by dozens and dozens of miles.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The one thing with the 8th/9th systems is the downsloping in the eastern valley. The system is weak enough and far enough away that some downsloping (and even temps rising) is possible over the far eastern valley including portions of TRI. Seems like when modeling latches on to downsloping, tough to shake. 12z suite about to roll...
  5. Carvers Gap
    Still think the 8th/9th system is just now coming into focus. Trends tend to favor western NC, but really tough to rule out the eastern valley at this point or even the Plateau. Another system is immediately after that one centered around next Monday. The 6z GEFS mean for NE TN is 6+" of snow w/ 2-4" for much of middle TN and the rest of E TN - increasing as one heads north and east.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Good catch. And the changes due to that may be very abrupt. Modeling is a lot colder today. Very evident the TPV is getting split after d10 within those runs. Seeing models change over the last 48 hours reminds me of Feb’18.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS does continue the trend of 12z modeling in finding bitterly cold air after d10. So as not to create confusions. The GOA vortex still basically pumps the cold out of northern Canada during the next week. Post d10, the steady reversal of cold back over to the pole into Canada is still there...but vastly accelerated. I think a new/continued SSW is playing a role that.
  8. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS gets strung out with the storm on the 8th. However, the 18z GFS-Para now has it.
  9. Carvers Gap
    You can watch on both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z, the cold just pouring over the pole once the GOA vortex(which pumps the cold back to Siberia initially...see previous posts) gets out of the way. The 12z GEFS is very much in the process of relocating a large portion of Siberian cold over the pole once that GOA vort gets out of the way after next weekend.
  10. Carvers Gap
    So, looking at the 12z GFS and Euro, sure looks like the TPV splits just by the cold that some this direction. If you look at the 50mb strat anomalies on the GFS, you can see a significant split. The TPV is very likely under the warmer heights heading over the pole after d10 on the operational run.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Also, be sure to look at the NA view of the GFS on Tropical Tidbits. Toggle to temps(not anomalies) and watch the cold come over the pole into Canada. Impressive.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Not to be overlooked, but the LR pattern has a -EP ridge, -NAO, and BN heights in the Bering Strait on the 12z GEFS....that model is decidedly colder than two days ago with BN temps during week two through much of the nation's mid-section and eastward. 12z GEPS looks good as well.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Definitely western areas of the forum would also want to give that a look. Big changes with the 12z suite for sure.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Well, that was a pretty wild run of the 12z Euro. Yet, another storm is in the pattern around 180.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the 12z GEFS has a beefy snow mean for the central and NE valley along with the Plateau. Been creeping up since 0z.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Yeah, you are digging deep if you are dialing up the Australians!
  17. Carvers Gap
    I hadn't even planned on watching much of the 12z run until I saw the 12z ICON posted in the MA forum. The CMC has had it for a few runs kind of off and on, but just tough to believe it at times. That said, the CMC has done really well this winter with systems in this region. But yeah, something had to have changed to get that abrupt of an agreement. Might just be that models are converging on a solution - but not sure on that.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro trended NW and slightly less strung out. How much it climbs the coast is a big deal for NE TN folks. Right now, the CMC is right in the middle...and was closer to be correct with higher accumulations than other modeling at range. Again, really doubt modeling has caught up to this - if real.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Something has changed in modeling for that many global models to all of the sudden reach agreement. My guess is that modeling has not caught up to this storm - trends could obviously be better or worse! LOL. We will certainly take a good 12z suite of operatonals though!
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro...E TN people you are going to like this run.
  21. Carvers Gap
    That bowling ball appears to want to head SE and then ride up the EC.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The entry into the western forum area(in terms of latitude) is important. The 6z GFS-para vs the 12z GFS really illustrate this if memory serves me correctly. Para is further north.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The -NAO, in my experience, is usually less of a culprit of pushing things to the GOM than say a really strong -EPO. There is really nothing to dig a storm deep into the south. I expect a lot of sliders, bowling balls, and systems that pop along the coast. Area of confluence is right over North Carolina. Whether it happens or not, that is the real question. However, this is why eastern valley folks like NAOs. Just stinks that we don't have a bit more cold to work with or these would snows and placement would simply be the questions vs having to have a perfect track. Bowling ball looks like it could certainly be a score for someone in the Upper South...question is where?
  24. Carvers Gap
    As for Kuchera or non-Kuchera, I just roll with whichever gives MBY more. LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has 4-8' in the valleys on the 8th and 9th of NE TN with a foot in the mountains. So, that is the CMC, GFS, and ICON that have this now. No idea if real, but worth a look.
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