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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Simply beautiful runs of the 12z GFS and GEFS.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And the 18z NAM at range only has temps in the low to mid 30s as precip gets into the eastern valley, including Chattanooga. Take with a huge grain that far out, but those temps are not warm. NAM was flirting with more wintry stuff even outside of western TN and MS.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the 12z CMC it had temps at 35 during the heaviest of rain in the Central Valley.
  4. Carvers Gap
    As a matter of fact, almost the entire region is barely above freezing on the RGEM. WAA may scour that out...but it looks like that return flow has passed to our east east, because the low goes to our southeast - meaning that the warm nose would be limited on that particular model run. Just toggle to temps and look on TT. That is like the coldest possible rain without ZR or SN.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The temperature in Knoxville is 33F at 84 on the 18z RGEM with rain moving in over the top. Dropped 2 degrees as precip started on that model.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z RGEM looked pretty good for western areas of the forum - I agree. Also, it had a bit of an icy look on the northern fringe. Think maybe it was tnweathernut who said he thought the high over the top would have trouble moving. Ice stuff here is often very tough for modeling to pick-up on. Almost always occurs when WAA gets over the top of cold valley locations. Not saying that happens, but seeing the RGEM hint at that made my power lines shiver.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Was looking a bit more closely...looks like that storm is really affected by time of day. I like that track quite a bit. Just going to have to watch it.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Interesting discussion by Joe D'Aleo today about the lack of airplane data, specifically less data about jet streams. This is nothing new, but he floated the idea that some of the bouncing around of modeling at LR may well be to lack of sample data. He did note that the Euro takes the cold from the strat split to Asia, and the American/Canadian models now bring it to NA. This creates a much different look over NA after the 20th. Now, it is still entirely possible the mother load of the cold stuff is going to dump into the West - can find very few LR models that show it make inroads into the East. However, though 500 maps like like poo, the actual surface maps are much colder between the MS River and the spine of the Apps - speaking after d10. If a piece of the TPV drops into southern Canada, which I actually think is likely(I like the GFS with strat splits), then that cold may well push eastward and fight the SER shown on most modeling. Anyway, just going to close by re-iterating that we may be lacking some of our normal data which drives modeling...and is causing some wider than normal variation. That may well be contributing to models taking a longer than normal time to hone-in on a solution with winter storms. Of note, like John, I feel the Canadian has done remarkable well with both short, medium, and LR work. I think the chances for a major winter storm along the EC are increasing as the cold drops south and interacts with a ridge that will allow storms to climb along the EC.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Kingsport called school today(crazy since were are on virtual, right?). So, I have some time to catchup on modeling. Was barely able to track this last system - had somebody keeping me up to date. Wasn't able to catch-up until last night.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 6z Euro and 12z GEM, not sure this system on the 11th and 12th will be benign. If anything our northern MS posters have something to track for a bit. The 6z Euro was sneaking frozen precip into the forum area. 12z GEM is just west of that. The GFS was terrible with the current system. Now, not saying everyone received snow, but it failed to identify any snow in NE TN until the last minute. Euro was too aggressive...GFS to weak. As John noted, the Canadian has been during fairly well. Might be a bit too amped at times with accums, but did ok. The RGEM identified the Sullivan Co snow band at decent range this last time. Would not surprise me at all that the GFS is just too washed out.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Ended up with 2.5+". Drove into town around the EB and very little. Get away from that and much more.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Have picked-up a couple of inches at the house so far.
  13. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS has five snow events for the sub-forum.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Total 18z GFS snowfall for the sub forum are is probably worth a post if someone has it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    So much more fun than last year!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Haven't been watching today as closely as others, has the system trended north or south? Lots of times bowling ball lows tend to jog north at the last minute. Just seems like right now modeling is generally spitting out all kinds of solutions in the general vicinity of western NC, M TN, and E TN.
  17. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS-Para looked very much like the 18z Euro.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Could be anything from nothing, to lollipops, do a full fledged winter storm. Tough call. Glad I don't have to make it!!!!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Not sure if you all have seen it, but MRX has released some graphics on FB just now.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Just wanted to stop in and say that the the gif work land map sharing in this sub-forum is outstanding.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Seriously...that is a very cold run and supports those who have been talking about the potential for extreme cold.
  22. Carvers Gap
    After looking at the 18z GFS, I think I am just going to keep posting about how warm modeling looks after d13. That approach seems to be working for us this winter.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Webb had some stuff this AM about part of the TPV potentially heading south into the lower 48. Like Jeff said we just don't want it settling into the Rockies. With that said, when I was posting earlier, I didn't realize that the BN heights diving into the nation's mid-section were potentially the TPV. If that is the case, that changes the equation pretty significantly. I am not overly confident in a cold time frame after the 25th, but can definitely see the path to that point for sure if the TPV settles into southern Canada or the Lower 48 and slowly burns itself out.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I am pretty much half-a__ing it today in regards to posting. LOL -------> If I had watched the 12z GEPS finish running, I would have noted that it did eventually did double down in its cold. Just looking at the 500 pattern(no anomalies) that block is textbook and barely moving at all on the EPS. If anything it may attempt a full latitude trough in the lower 48. Been a while since we have seen a winter with one of those! So folks maybe need to take my posts with "low confidence" today - heck, maybe you do anyway. If so, you are wise.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I think we can hold the pattern through the 20th, maybe the 25, just based upon the 12z EPS. But eventually, the retrograding ridge into the West will allow ridging to belly underneath the eastern trough. My hope is on the -NAO holding on into early Feb before it fades quickly. Maybe(big maybe) we can survive the MJO orbit with the -NAO in place and then get it into 8, 1, 2 in early February as it fades.
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