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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Headed down to @waltrip country last night in order to get some XC running on their course last night. As soon(and I mean right when we put the truck in park and got out), it started to thunder. So, we got back into the truck to wait, and wait, and wait. Those storms were coming off the mountains heading NW. All it would take would be a little ripple. As soon the storm come off the mountain, it unloaded and trained over east Greeneville. Finally got on the course around 7:15 after about a two hour wait. You can see the same deal on the radar above. As the rainfall descends the mountains - nada. As soon as it hits flat land....rain appears. This is textbook as to why during winter that the valleys do better with storms that come from the GOM. The foothills get the shaft in this set-up though(on the west side....east side gets hammered.)
  2. Carvers Gap
    There are two potential rainmakers. The flow from the GOM with Floyd and a potential front late next weekend. MRX has a pretty decent rainfall map on social media. That looks reasonable to me. What will be interesting is whether we get significant rainfall in day6-10. That could be a problem on the heels of Fred. Right now, we could use the rain.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I am not seeing the aggressive totals with the Euro or Canadian. Is the American model more accurate with this type of set-up?
  4. Carvers Gap
    I like this thread today!!!!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Great post. I miss those winters. This is an odd flip this time. The QBO never really cycled during the last negative cycle. It left the loop early. It has done the same thing with the positive cycle. It is almost like we are actually entering a true negative stage this time where last time was an off cycle head fake. Will be interesting to see if this current negative trend continues. After many, many normal cycles...it has gone pretty wonky. I don't completely trust it right now, but I definitely like the trend. I would seem this sets the stage for an early start to winter, but I have no crystal ball on that! LOL. I almost feel like this is has the potential to have a 17-18 cold snap which was brutal cold but dry. Oddly, I am a little less worried about cold this winter, and maybe more concerned that precip is sparse. I suspect we may have some chances with NW flow stuff. The new Euro seasonal is banging the drum for a big ridge out west for December and blocking in Greenland which lasts in January. Very much hoping we are at the beginning of a new -NAO cycle.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, 95-96' has a similar flip...just a bit later. 09-10 and 14-15 also have a QBO that flipped almost exactly at the same time as this summer's.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @tnweathernutshared this with me today. Take a look at what the QBO has done....gif of guy throwing all of his papers up in the air! LOL. Well, to quote Bob Kesling, "What a turn of events." Check out those last two QBO changes. Not sure many were expecting that. Double digit negatives now for the QBO for June at 30mb. That has my attention. Chaos right there. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index
  8. Carvers Gap
    TYS just had its driest month since '95....Man, wouldn't it be nice to see the 95-96 analog pop up this winter?
  9. Carvers Gap
    Looks like we managed ~0.25 of rain this evening. Very thankful for the rain. Some area to our east, as has been the case for several months, did very well. Right now IMBY, we are getting rain so infrequently that it reminds me of tracking snow during the winter.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Normally, when it rains(during a summer with normal rainfall), I don't have to water my garden for about three days. Right now, soil moisture is almost non-existent IMBY. We received about 1.25-1.5" last week during that rain event(got lollipopped here)...had to water within 36 hours as the rainfall was soaked up or evaporated that quickly. With La Nina set to return, very possible this drought could intensify - though that is no guarantee as some La Nina's have produced plentiful rainfall during recent years. That said, drought/heat IMBY is almost always correlated with LaNina conditions. As I noted during spring, when NE TN has BN precip during spring...that is usually a really good indicator that summer is going to be a problem in this area.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yards are beginning to fry up here. Mine is toast. With the heat forecast mid-week and a lack of consistent precip, potentially could get much worse. We have only had three days at TRI which have seen 0.1 or more of rainfall. Two of those days were way back on July 1-2. If we don't score tomorrow, we are looking at a developing drought here. The US drought monitor from last week is picking-up on those conditions in this area.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Update on peppers. With the increase in frequency of warm weather and warm nights, we have been blessed with an abundance of both giant Marconi sweet peppers and a poblano peppers(planted those in the hopes of making chile rellenos). The Marconi plant produced so many peppers that if fell over(and pulled the stake out of the ground). We also have had a better crop of cucumbers this year. Went with Spacemasters and Beit Alpha(an Israeli variety).
  13. Carvers Gap
    We planted a fig tree this year. Found a great website which is documenting backyard gardens by Italian immigrants. I know we have some NE folks browse this thread from time to time. Would enjoy hearing your stories. Cool thing is they actually have been growing figs and lemons in areas of New York - thinking Long Island. The way they preserve their trees through cold NE winters is nothing short of genius. I have two neighbors who grow figs. One set of neighbors are expert gardeners. The other neighbor, a fine gardener in her own right, has a fig tree which was grown from a cutting by a coal miner in SW VA who was Italian. Growers in NE TN need to simply get a fig tree, and plant it on a south or southwest facing side of your residence, and then do some reading on taking care of it during winter. They are by no means a rarity, but they are also not found in abundance at this latitude. If you see a fig tree in NE TN or SW VA, those folks have either worked carefully to preserve their tree through winter, OR they chose a variety which overwinters well here. We are rookies in the fig tree hobby, but it is very rewarding. So far, deer will not touch the tree. I have heard that deer don't like the sap of established plants. Fresh figs taste incredible. https://www.theitaliangardenproject.com That fig tree, in its first year, decided to produce figs. Pretty cool. Additionally, we have been blessed with probably our best tomato crop ever. We are going to process those into spaghetti/marinara sauce. Despite limited rainfall in TRI, the garden has gone crazy. We installed an irrigation system this year, and it has been worth its weight in gold. The lack of consistent rainfall has actually mitigated disease. BTW, the ribbed tomatoes below are Marsalato Marmande which is a French variety. They are striking in appearance both on the vine and on the plate. Seeds are pricey, but the plants have been very disease resistant with plentiful production.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Since it is kind of a boring wx pattern, though we might discuss the heat in Mountain West and the absolute scorcher that is likely to come to pass. They have already begun to close rivers. Oddly, they had a good snowpack in many places(Wyoming Range), but the water content was very low. Other places had to depend on a wet spring there for additional moisture(to add to deficits). Now, couple low water with hot temps....bout to get bad out there. Looks warm here in the TRI with temps in the low to mid 90s for the next several days. It is going to be HOT!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS in the front range of the Rockies is torch city with some temps approaching 110F+ in the medium range. Man, I hope that is not coming this way. Yikes.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Received some much needed rainfall yesterday afternoon/evening. Looks like I got lollipopped to the tune of 1.5." Water was ponding on the baked ground. We had places where 1-2" of water was on dry, brown grass. Looked really odd. Anyway, everything is much greener today but the humidity is wicked.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Powell, awesome to hear!!!!
  18. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting "opposite" to my my recent post. The CFSv2 is picking-up a Greenland Bock for early fall. If that occurs(and it doesn't bridge into an E Coast ridge) that is a great sign for those of us who like seasonal fall temps. I think climatology supports a warmer fall, but right now, I am not seeing that in all LR modeling. The Euro is nearly opposite of the CFS suite. So tough call this far out. The Euro has a really bad bias of being too warm in its Weeklies forecast. However, American modeling is often too cold. Split the difference, and you get seasonable temps. That said, if the American suite scores a coup(and correct me if I am wrong, but I "think"it picks up on Greenland blocking a bit better at range), extended summer would not occur. So bottom line, nothing is a slam dunk this far out, and while climatology(building La Nina) supports extended summer, one wonders if we can actually sneak through fall without the atmosphere responding to the Nina. I have learned not to discount the CFS of late.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Have to agree with Cosgrove, thinking fall is looking much warmer than I thought a few weeks ago. Anyone for another extended summer?
  20. Carvers Gap
    We had a nice rain shower this AM. It really soaked things. Thankful for that!!!!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it has been crazy. I can probably drive 20 minutes and find similar departures. When this finally breaks, probably going to have more than we want!!!
  22. Carvers Gap
    0.08" of rain during the last 11 days. Pretty sure on the day where excessive rainfall was a potential that MBY got zip. Through nearly mid-July, there is potential for July to finish as TRI's fourth straight month w BN precip.
  23. Carvers Gap
    All the time. I-81 is kind of the demarcation line. East of that is generally a slight upslope until JC, and then of course one hits the Smokies. West of the interstate is more of a downslope. Part of what is going on right now might be that NE TN is sitting just close enough to a Bermuda high that precip is just running out of gas as it hits it. You can really see that on how the line this evening is forecast to dissipate just to the east of TRI.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yard looks great, Powell! Finally received some rain last last evening. It wasn't a lot(I don't think), but it was enough to keep the garden watered. Looks like today there is actually a chance for excessive rainfall in NE TN per NWS/MRX on FB.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Have barely had a drop here this week. Yards reflect this. I-81 eastward has not done as poorly. We have had a three minute "shower" which didn't even get the pavement under trees wet. Moisture was gone within minutes. Hopefully we can score some rain this weekend. The irrigation system in my garden is now paying dividends in this dry weather here.
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