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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Think it is going to be a month where troughs move east, lift out, reload, and happens again. The SER will slip in between those troughs at times. At this point, that is just a timing issue. I don't think I have seen a single person calling for sustained cold, but....this is a pattern which could produce as nearly every cold shot has produced frozen precip this winter in this forum area.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just to re-iterate what we have been saying for several days, the 12z EPS and GEPS are still advertising a strong trough amplification in the East around Feb5th. As noted, the changes which force the trough eastward on those models are now almost at d10 with the trough following soon after. The 12z EPS is stronger and very slightly faster (w just a quick glance). Euro Weeklies look like periodic shots of cold throughout February. It is worth noting that the 12z GEFS remains steadfast in its depiction of an eastern ridge. At this point the MJO has a strong say in what happens downstream and obviously the GEFS and EPS are much different with their indices in the mid to late range.
  3. Carvers Gap
    It still is my favorite for sure.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Only problem I have with the RGEM/CMC combo is that it has been a hair too cold IMBY which is causing it to overestimate snowfall here - matters especially when changeover times matter.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Want to see the Euro on board for NE TN...has been really good this winter when it showed snow here and when it did not.
  6. Carvers Gap
    EPO ridge is at d9-10 on both the 12z GEPS and 12z EPS which is less unreliable time - bit quicker on the GEPS. So the driver to move that western trough eastward is not at d14, but is actually at d9/10. Certainly no certainty even at that range, but that is not d14 stuff I am noting.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is snow also showing a similar strong amplification around the same time frame - Feb 5/6(we can use that time as a benchmark). Been moving up in time fairly consistently.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The d10-15 5 day mean for the GEPS is just sick in regards to the EPO. Wow - reaches to the Arctic Circle.
  9. Carvers Gap
    EPO ridge on the 12z GEPS is just nuts. The 12z EPS which is running is not far from that solution.
  10. Carvers Gap
    0z UKMET on Pivotal was interesting re: snow accumulation trends.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Really it is almost a slider for the length of the TN/KY border - 12z Euro is much colder.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is very close for portions of NE TN. The WxBell snow graphics actually have all snow(with little accums) for Sullivan and Washington Co's and NE.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Two thoughts... 1. I think NE TN, SW VA, and SE KY are going to have to keep an eye on the system just after 100. The 6z GFS and 0z CMC both pop a lee side low or inland runner after energy transfer up the Piedmont/Coastal Plain. Now, I am not a huge fan of energy transfer, but if the energy transfer were to occur far enough to the southeast, one could see rain changing to snow in the aforementioned areas. Bit of a long shot but it has been my experience that these types of handoffs tend to run a snow axis from Bristol to DC. 2. MJO. Some modeling stalls the MJO around 6-7. However, wanted to share a couple from this morning (ECMWF and CA-LLR) which actually move the MJO along. Some MJO modeling actually produces another wave off of Eastern Africa and rolls it eastward. If that happens, that means the MJO rolls through phases 1, 2, and 3. You can see on the CHI map that very wave beginning just after d5. ECMWF(notice it head towards 8) CLA is about perfect... CHI Propagation Map from yesterday as today is not updated for this yet(look specifically for the way around Africa move to the central IO....that is MJO 1-3 which is cold for JFM) That is one window for potential cold. It is on modeling and there seems to be some moderate agreement among MJO modeling. FTR, I think the MJO is now driving the boat in terms of temps. The -NAO seems to be driving the storm track. So, the 0z GEPS and 6z DFSv2, which pop significant EPO ridges are showing the cold potential(as opposed to the very real warm potential scenario) for just after the 5th. Could it be a mirage? Sure, but I don't need to provide all of the caveats. The above is a great example of why modeling is struggling. I tend to think we see the cold move East...so I am tentatively rolling with cold pushing East around the 5th(likely gets pushed back a few days as cold often can), but that is my current thinking.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Again, I think we potentially may see a major trough amplification around or just after the 5th. The 0z GEPS has a monster EPO ridge moving forward in time on its 0z run. If the air in front of that sharp trough is warm enough, could be fireworks for sure. The 0z EPS is not far behind but its Pacific ridge is displaced further west. As Webber noted the other day, there is a super fine line between torch and major league cold. Modeling is now moving up in time that Feb 5th timeframe. This is the first winter in a while where I don't remember tracking at least some severe wx, so a big amplifying trough with warm air in front is definitely a good recipe. Almost has a "flooding and then snow" look. Again, I look for the coldest air to go into the front range of the Rockies and surge eastward 2-3 times in February. Only concern would be a repeat of November....
  15. Carvers Gap
    Pretty interesting to see the 18z GEFS "cave" to the 12z EPS re: the position of the ridge in the eastern Pac. The GEFS has been stubborn in pushing that ridge well of the coast and allowing the trough to run well into the west. At 18z, the GEFS now has the trough up against the coast...and bang, EPO ridge just after d10. All of that can change at this range, but good trends.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we should have gone with a thread for that one this morning. There was plenty of model support. I just thought I was nuts since it didn't get more attention. @kvskelton, great pics!
  17. Carvers Gap
    You know, that 18z GFS storm at 162 is super close to being a big storm for E TN. Big high over the stop and nearly perfect placement. If it turns the corner and trends slightly NW(which is entirely possible...boom.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Beginning to spitball a major trough amplification over North America late during the first week of February. Could easily change. That said., the 12z EPS actually splits the western NA trough around 240. That has moved up in time quite a bit. Fits with the operational quite well. Trough retrogrades into Canada, ridge builds in the West and sends a lobe of BN into the SE around d10. Eventually the AK vortex slips SE into the nation's mid-section. Makes me think that the MJO is maybe going to slip over into 8 or COD by late in week 2. Honesty, the last few hours of the EPS are the best look we have had all winter. Not a lot of skill at that range for the model, so will just refer to the 5d mean above. Just picture the bluest shaping places with the light blue for d15.
  19. Carvers Gap
    This is the d10-15 5day mean from the 12z EPS. Weeklies aren't bad...get really good around mid-Feb. That said, I think the transition to a better pattern was actually sped up on the 12z run. 12z was a substantially better run. Again, this is a 5d mean. D15 basically drops the core of BN 500 heights into the Plains and spreads eastward. Classic cold air delivery mechanism for winter. Notice the trough building into the west. It is possible the trough could even split like we had during December.
  20. Carvers Gap
    One local school system had kids get caught mid-bus route and school was called. Was a huge mess in parts of Sullivan and SW VA. Euro nailed this. Just drizzle now.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Higher elevations around town have a decent dusting. Once you hit the EB, it is all rain. Was very marginal in terms of temps. Glad you all scored up that way. Was a nice surprise!
  22. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome. A solid dusting here.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Silver dollar snowflakes coming down here. Super light dusting. Doesn't look like it will last long, but impressive nonetheless. Modeling has done really well with this system in terms of precip type and timing for several days. Showed basically a sloppy mess. Sure enough.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The last two times we have seen significant cold predicted(and did not occur) was for early Jan and now late January. Those two "busts" by modeling are likely (but not totally) attributed to SSW events that have thrown off modeling which occurred during those time frames. The good thing is that we still had chances as modeling eventually trended back to a moderated cold shot. I suspect we see this again.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, I have shared privately that we might have 2-3 legit windows this winter. So far we have had one right around Christmas - maybe another minor window to begin January. I suspect we get one more good one. Wavelengths will shorten up during February. I don't really sweat the "it's always at d10" stuff. We all know how that works. And again, when we are talking about the MJO, usually the pattern is not good.
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