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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    1044 high sitting over a potential slider.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS has a window for a storm around 180. Missed the phase by just a hair, but that setup could work.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I think a lot of this has to do with the MJO being predicted to go phases 5/6 which are very warm vs the -NAO which is quite negative. One thing I notice is the variations in the Pacific trough. As Webber noted, there is super fine line between cold and total torch and nothing in between after d10. If the ridge, like the EPS, sets up closer to the Pac Coast....the trough will extend eastward in a 95-96 fashion. The GEFS is nearly a completely different solution with that eastern Pac ridge. Again, I tend to support the EPS solution. I feel the Euro stuff has superior physics when it comes to juggling multiple features: SSW, conflicting Pac/Atl features, changing wavelengths, etc. It is not infallible, and I definitely don't hug that model. However, I think the idea that cold pushes eastward is legit. As a side note, take some time and go back through the winter run-up thread. I think our ideas from that thread(dating back to summer and earlier) have been really good and have encompassed a lot of what has occurred this winter.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Folks in Chattanooga are looking at those maps and saying, “This has been going on since 1886?!” j/k. Great maps as always.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Skepticism is welcome. Frustration directed towards posters who have no control over the weather is something I try to avoid.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Friend just shared this with me, and I 100% concur.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Dangit. LOL. It is gonna be money.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Great.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS has moved towards the good look that the 12z GEPS has. GEPS is a true 95-96 look. EPS is not far off that mark. GEPS start date is around d11 and EPS is around d14. Both basically open up a path from AK(super cold temps) into the lower 48. Realistic look and I would lean in that direction if forced to pick. Guessing the GEPS has this as the EPS is probably holding back just a hair in the West which is a known bias. Good trends from those two ensembles.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GEPS has been advertising an EPO ridge(might be a hair too displayed westward), but that feature greatly changes its LR look. The 0z GEFS does not have this feature. The 0z EPS kind of splits the difference between the two. The EPS is not a warm run. Though modeling kind of has one foot in and one foot out, I do think we move to what models had a week or so ago....strongest cold anomalies in the Mountain West and front range of the Canadian Rockies....and then extended occasionally to the western spin of the Apps (95-96 lite). We are really just a weak PNA or EPO away from a very cold pattern. TBD if that actually happens, but the EPS and GEPS are party of the way there. I do surmise that we likely see a ridge roll through from time to time with that look. Again, think there are some inconsistent looks with the MJO paired with a -NAO. Throw in the SSW and some shortening wavelengths, and modeling right now past 7 days can get a bit dicey. As long as we have the -NAO and/or EPO(potential), there is a chance for confluence and storminess here. As for spring, I know some analog packages call for a warmth. Wouldn't surprise me to see it get very cold about the time we are ready for it to warm-up. If the Nina hangs on, one would expect Cosgrove's flip to warmth at some point per his newsletter.
  11. Carvers Gap
    LOL. What a day.....
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, TN fans haven't been looking at squat regarding modeling today! LOL. Came over to post what John just did....I wasn't overly displeased with either the Euro OP, the EPS, nor the Weeklies. The Weeklies controls run was pretty awesome in terms of 500. Haven't looked at a map all day. You think a SER is bad...TN football says hold my beer.
  13. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy is how very little thunder we have had in NE TN this winter - not even sure I can name a time where we have had even weak thunderstorms. I think last January we had a really bad severe event on my end of town - knocked down a bunch of trees. But yeah, with a ridge temporarily bellying into the center of the country...could happen. I haven't even been able to use my "thunder in the mountain...snow within ten days" rule this winter - yet.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting side note and a testament to the lack of cold source this winter. Duck season has been tough this year from what I have read. One reason that was suggested is that cold weather(meaning frozen waterways further north) has not forced them as far south as normal.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Saw a similar head fake when we saw truly cold air enter NA during November. Lots of solutions between d10-15 showed remarkable cold going into the East...only to have it dump West. November patterns have a real tendency to show back-up during winter(though the previous winters' Novembers did not comply with that rule). Looks very much like that will occur again. Still think the MJO look on OLR maps looks good for the LR re: our area. You can see on the 18z GFS the easy late in the run(and not taken as verbatim but just an example) at which the trough repositions itself at 500 across the eastern US when that trough in the West retrogrades just enough off the West Coast(talked about that earlier today).
  16. Carvers Gap
    Speaking of the West, they are WAY below normal on snowfall. Many places which generally have lots of snow...have bare ground in the Mountain West.
  17. Carvers Gap
    And I will add, this winter was supposed to be a huge nothing burger. It was forecast by many to be wall-to-wall torch. I think we have 4 winter threads so far, including a Christmas Eve storm(the Holy Grail of storm tracking) which was nailed at range. And certainly this has not been great for everyone, and I have no control over that. However, that does not mean this winter is a fail by any means in some areas. The mountain behind my house has had snow on it since Christmas on most days - it is only 2,400'. The NAO has saved us from much AN temps. It is very important to remember that the Nina is fading. So it is important to think about what modeling is juggling right now: fading Nina, yet another SSW, and an unexpected NAO - not to mention analog packages are few. I think the pattern which has persisted much of winter is periodic, seasonal cold that has brought snow chances with each surge of cold. But make no mistake, modeling is bouncing around right now. HOWEVER, modeling has generally gotten the overall progression(or should I say retrogression?) of the January pattern overall. I should add that the 12z CFSv2 supports the 12z Euro control. I am not confident that anything past d10 is accurate at this point, but I do think the West is about to get their share of winter.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS control shows the quick way to get to a monster EPO/PNA ridge around d11. Not saying that happens, but if the MJO can swing into 8 while the NAO persists...that is the outcome. Just don't think modeling has this worked out yet - some great options on the table and some "get your garden" ready options as well.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The linkage from the NAO to the SE has been shown nearly the entire first half of winter and has rarely verified. So, I have my doubts at to how persistent that will be, but glad it was mentioned. I have been watching if for several runs. Could it last for weeks on end? Sure, but I have doubts about that. We have talked about the SER/NAO link off-and-on at times so far. Just looking at the 12z EPS, looks to me like the trough will retrograde through the west and eventually form a GOA low - which is not great but no a deal killer. I still think modeling is really struggling with the NAO which simply seems to have no intention of going away - yet. As I noted in late December, we are entering a time of great uncertainty - and still are. My guess? The trough retrogrades slowly, a PNA pops, and back in business by the second week of Feb. So, cold shot Jan 25-30th, one week ridge, and back to a trough by the second week of Feb. The CFSv2 has handled that really well. Keep an eye on the MJO. I have often wondered if the NAO could bridge us to a better Pacific. It may be doing just that. If you watch the 12z GFS, the eastern ridge amplifies and retrogrades west with each amplification - to the point it is in the eastern Pacific by d13+. Add in that LR modeling is all over the place right now...going to take a wild guess that another SSW is under way or about to be.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Not overly fond of model trends during the past 12 hours regarding the LR. That said, the CA OLR and GEFS OLR which we can use to predict the MJO are again strongly hinting that the MJO is about to propagate into 7 and likely 8. That would mean that help from the Pacific would possibly occur between d10-20. Let's see if modeling, especially the GEFS begins to correct to that. If true, that would open the doors to very cold air in the eastern US. Not saying that happens as the MJO could get stuck in 7 and the cold get bottled up in the Canadian front range....but something to think about.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Still seeing signs of cross polar flow on the GFS - quite impressive.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Great catch, man. Glad you shared that. From this AM, the CA OLR maps (which have been wrong before) show the precip propagating into 7/8. Seeing some hints of the pattern on the CFSv2 showing the EPO return on the 12z run today. The GEFS OLR is hinting at that move - at least showing the IO become less. That would fit what we are seeing past d10+.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Couple of notes before going out running in this mess. 12z CMC is picking up on the potential for next weekend's system. The 12z GFS is freakin' cold.
  24. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro has 1-2" of snow for NE TN on the 23rd, and has snow for the Plateau and mountains - was a nice look. Looks like TYS to the NE got snow on that run around 168. As John noted, the 6z GFS looked good as well.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Light dusting here. Light snow falling.
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