Carvers Gap

Phase 7 may be colder...but the cold that is on the table on the UKMET is unreal. Now, it seems like 95-96 or one of those Nina winters, the MJO had virtually no influence on the pattern - meaning it rotated through the warm phases and remained cold in the East. The snow from the past two days has been right in the middle of phase 6. Last winter was phases 5-6 - was awful. @TellicoWx I want to revisit a QBO conversation that we had last winter(I may have been wrong in retrospect) where you noted that the falling of the QBO was not as correlated to the bottoming out and rising of the QBO. I am too lazy to dig back through the thread, but makes me wonder(even if the QBO is positive) if maybe the current phase of the QBO is actually helping us. It may just be as simple as the -NAO has been a good card for eastern areas of the sub-forum.

The analog is strong with these travel plans. LOL. So true, man!

Ended up with about .5" here in Kingsport. Probably have had much more, but melts and then we get more snow. It managed to close schools this AM as one burst rolled through around 7:30AM-ish and fouled the roads.

Going to sit down and watch the 12z Euro roll today. Our schools up here are out today as the NNW flow event slightly overperformed in Kingsport. I bet we have had 2-3" but it keeps melting and then getting reloaded with the next set of snow showers.

Cold looks overdone on some modeling. We will see, but off the top of my head, modeling which has been that aggressive this winter has usually verified north. Also, feb1-5 was supposed to be warm!? Welp, first two days say otherwise. If you all remember, Jan 25-30 was supposed to be super cold and then flipped on us at the last minute. I now wonder if that pattern was simply delayed to the Feb5 amplification.

As I look at the 12z suite roll in, becoming apparent that modeling is MUCH colder so far. The air mass being modeled is just ridiculously cold for Sunday into next week. What is even crazier is that the MJO is stuck in 6/7. Makes me think the SER will not be nearly as suppressed as the 12z suite has and that the cold is going to fight it. Extreme cold battling a SER is pretty much how I would draw up a wild winter weather pattern. Just a hunch about the SER being a little more active...but for now suppression is the trend. I am just not buying it right now. Also, important to remember that the NAO is going place confluence over us and the MA. The NAO will tend to slow things down as well. I am not seeing the big storms from yesterday, but am no less interested in the pattern(not in the least). Cold air masses(even if brief) have been money all winter as the southern jet has rarely been quiet.

Awesome! Glad to have you aboard!!!

Want to see some bitterly cold air settling into the Midwest and eastern Plains...12z UKMET has you covered. Has -32F stuff at 144 in Iowa.

12z GFS just looks way too suppressed to me.

Keep brining down 1040+ highs and one would think that we eventually hook up with a system that has frozen precip. The GFS seems too fast this weekend which is causing it to miss the phase, but that is an overall trend so far at 12z with the ICON doing the same. Still, looks like plenty of opportunities past that.

Crazy, but Kingsport has had snow all day. Normally, we don't get NW flow event snow. Ground is white this evening IMBY. Probably .5" so far. Super fine flakes coming down.

Do yourself a favor and go to Tropical Tidbits, select the 18z GEFS, then temp anomaly, then North American view, and just enjoy the d7-16 look.

18z GFS Para has the S/M event...

And to be clear, I would shocked if that map verified...that is just for fun. However, I do think tracking a significant event or two is not out of the question. The GFS, CMC, and Euro have been throwing haymakers. The pattern (IF THE COLD BOUNDARY HOLDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND HOLDS WITHOUT GOING TO CUBA), is a great set-up if we can time precip. We have been tracking this trough amplification since Jan 19th - all the way back in the other thread. Pretty cool.

What is wild is that that the 12z GEFS certainly supports something like two snow storms - maybe not that crazy looking, but two decent snows back-to-back. Cold air intrusions this winter have generally supported snowfall each time they have happened. We haven't really had an extended shot of cold like is being portrayed. So, going to be a fun test.

We just want the cold front to stall south of the forum area for just long enough so that an active southern jet attacks it.

Probably 95-96 is closer or maybe an old school overrunning event. 93 was a monster. That map is the result of two big storms which follow one right after the other. Spacing is perfect and the cold air boundary is prime. Assuming the GFS is maybe to quick with its deeper cold, I think a big winter storm is certainly possible over the sub-forum.

If that verifies, I may retire....or just die from shoveling first.

I like my map better. 240 with Kuchera...

Sorry, should have led with this...Anything interesting on the 12z Euro today?

Not sure if the snow or the cold after the snow is more impressive. My house pipes just shivered.

If the EPO ever cranks and Alaska's cold is dislodged..... Low tonight in Fairbanks is -40F with wind chill advisories of -60F.

Raining here in Kingsport. LOL - no lie. Upslope events are not our thing here.

Could easily happen. These patterns with huge temp swings tend to cause huge fluctuations. Seems like this winter all we need is a 3-4 day cold shot to be in business. Looks like a strong amplification this weekend, and maybe another mid-month. If that pans out, we may all be ready for spring. LOL!

There are several nice members, but that is just insane. LOL.