Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,695

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Really, the setup verbatim is not whether it will snow but where it will snow due to the cold air being modeled. Long way to go, but it is pretty rare to see that type of pattern.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS has the storm next Sunday.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is backing up the operational out to 168. Where it once had a weak frontal passage on the 5th, it now has a massive shot of cold air which drives SE of this subform area with much BN heights over the OH Valley.
  4. Carvers Gap
    There are multiple snow events inside of d10 ranging from backside snow, to clippers, to full on winter storms. Not saying any or all of this verifies...just reporting what is on modeling.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS mean and GEPS means are bonkers. The GEPS has 2"+ mean for all of TN and into norther MS and AL. GEFS isn't far from that. EPS is roiling now. Let's see if we can hold onto that signal. Could be a blip, but wow...what a blip if so.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro for the next 10 days...that is insane. Kuchera. Smokies w/ nearly 40."
  7. Carvers Gap
    Seriously, Wow. The CMC was nuts and so was the GFS. That CMC look at 240...after it had already brought snow with with the earlier storm. Looks like modeling is trending slightly further south with the freezing line. Good sign.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Just checking in to make sure everyone is doing well after that snoozer of a 12z suite.....
  9. Carvers Gap
    I know we are looking at M/T stuff, but next weekend is not without promise. Timing is a bit different on each, but both the Euro and GFS(old and new) show something along the front as it sags through our area. The EPS has finally seen the light, and the 6z EPS pushes a strong cold front through just after the 6th. I would also suspect we have a legit shot a clipper with this cold and then maybe a WAA system as it departs. Operational models are definitely colder than the ensembles of each model overnight. Makes me think the ensembles are playing catch-up. The ensembles seem to have been very slow to adjust to the actual pattern. Some fun facts, the MUO is gaining amplitude in phase 6 which is normally very warm. If we get snow in phase 6, enjoy that! Doesn't happen often. One would think that the wave in 6 is going to propagate to the dateline and get us to phase 8. The CHI map yesterday shows that and then has precip over Eastern Africa which would imply phase 1-2 of the MJO. So, I would suspect modeling and MJO charts to at least "try" to get the MJO in colder phases. Honestly, as long as that block is over Greenland modeling is likely to struggle. As wavelengths shorten(due to spring approaching at this latitude in 4-5 weeks...think it will be a bit late), modeling is going to struggle with that as well, especially the EPS(shoulder season issues). Somebody remind me, does the NAO have a great impact early, mid, or late season in terms of cold/snow?
  10. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS easily has the coldest air mass of the season after 150. West TN gets some digital snow on that run as well. Low single digits around 200.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Think we are going to see cutters periodically drive the cold boundary eastward(which will be fought by the SER). How far SE that boundary gets driven will determine winter wx vs rain. The Euro looks like it is dealing with a lot of feedback issues around d10.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro later in its run(though cold in the Ohio Valley), is playing the "tuck rule" game where it tucks a trough under a big EPO. Very realistic probability and one way the pattern could go wrong. That has occurred during the past 3-4 winters. That said, the NAO is a new feature on the map this year, and may not allow that trough to have staying power under the EPO ridge this time. Have a feeling that gets forced out.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS is the best case scenario with the EPS the worst case at it has a very dubious look with the cold bottled up in the Southwest. That can happen, but it is usually in error and is out of step with its own MJO with that look. Will be interesting to see corrections as we move forward. Right now, I think areas of NW TN and SW KY would be ripe for snow after the 5th, but really that is a long way out right now. Anything could happen with that much cold around and also with a SER. Lots of variables.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is pretty much at the same place. Lots of high pressure over the northern tier of states. GOM begins to attack the cold. Lots of variations with the SER. We DO NOT want an absence of the SER, but just enough of an angle to send precip into the cold. Right now have to think the NW shield of those waves will be cold. Again, nothing set in stone. This could trend to a stronger SER and just be a ton of rain OR modeling could be underestimating the push of cold and we could be in business. We need the cold front around the 5th to blast through and not wash out. Then, we need the boundary to press SE of the area. That hasn't happened a lot this winter, but has generally produced when it has. The NAO seems to slow nearly every system over E TN just enough so that some frozen precip falls in those areas. This upcoming window is something that everyone can watch...Usual areas north of I40 are in better shape due to latitude. However, that is some crazy cold air in the front range of the Rockies. If any of that breaks loose and heads East...that is a good set-up. I know by this time of year most are fatigued from following system after system...but I am intrigued with this.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Definitely have my eye on the 12z GFS Para(GFS has this as well). They both push the freezing line to our area our just past it. There are 2-3 waves which ride that front. Guessing the GFS is being overly aggressive with the cold. However, in the off chance that those are right, that would be a multi-wave overrunning event. Those happen, but has been a long time. Time frame is just after the 5th which is right around the much discussed trough amplification.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Of note the EMON MJO looks really, really good. Think some of these colder solutions on various runs is due to the MJO flirting with very cold phases for February.
  17. Carvers Gap
    What does natural gas look like today and/or energy futures? I never look at them, but if those start going up....
  18. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies say winter is not over. Initial cold push around the 5th. About 6 days later the trough returns and slams the door on spring. As Boone notes, if the Euro is holding back a bit in the West, the entire trough could come east around the 5th and settles into a full latitude trough. Nice look. Let's reel it in. Basically the message is more cold than warm, but some warm still embedded after the 5th. Implies a late spring.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The LR doesn't look half bad on multiple operational and ensemble runs. We will see how the pattern develops after the 5th. The 18z GEFS, after pushing the idea of a western tough, is not so much anymore. We will likely have a strong cold front around the 5/6th depending on our location in the forum area. After that is the topic of great discussion. Strong amplifications during February can be interesting.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Still very much like the time frame after Feb5th. Take a look at the 12z GFS...hard not to like that run. The 12z GEFS is also nice in the direction it is heading. I don't think winter is over.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Evidently, the 12z GEPS has rediscovered the trough amplification in the East which it lost overnight. MJO is having some effect here I think.. Monster EPO and NAO block. Not saying that happens, but sharing the information from the run.
  22. Carvers Gap
    That said, I really need to look at the MJO before I post. The EMON has the MJO going into phase 8, the GEFS is flirting with it, and the ECMWF is as well. IF that is the case, modeling should send that trough into the East. Those are not bad looks. That trough "should" kick eastward. Been following the TN coaching search while the wx is in lull, so take with a huge grain.
  23. Carvers Gap
    If the EPO verifies, the EPS and GEPS will score the W. I am referring to the persistent SER on the GEFS. The EPS and GEPS have not had that until overnight for that time frame. I still think the cold will push as evidenced by the EPS Weeklies. But the GEFS look has been the lesser(re:winter) of the three IMO.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Quick note: Looks like the GEFS has pulled the coup in the LR which means its depiction of a warmer phase MJO is looking more likely to verify. The EPS and GEPS have both moved towards GEFS solutions. They push a front through around or just after the 5th, but quickly return the trough the the Mountain West. We will see if that holds as there are many questions as to where the MJO goes after phase 7. To me, it looks like it goes to 8, but we will see.
  25. Carvers Gap
    RGEM has been missing changeover times here by a fairly wide margin. It does a great job though of identifying a threat and remaining consistent if real. The Euro actually nailed the snow here last Thursday which Is why I want it on board. When both the RGEM and Euro have something short range, I feel pretty good about the chance of occurrence.
×
×
  • Create New...