Carvers Gap

Pretty much a cage match between the MJO vs the NAO vs the SSW vs changing wavelengths of the season. MJO phase 7 centered on JFM is warmish over the East. Notice the severe cold over MT which fits the above maps. Thing is, the NAO is going to try to press that cold eastward with suppressed flow - will agitate that MT cold if you will. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

This is 144 on the 12z UKMET. That is -47F stuff in Iowa. Models "seem" to be signaling a major cold outbreak. Timing is EVERYTHING in regards to if/when the cold arrives and if it the southern stream will attack it(which I think it would). The Euro is pretty much the best solution as I look at the 12z suite. Yes, it is slower with the cold...but it holds the cold in the Plains. If that cold slides into the Midwest - it will be a major news story because of the cold and not snow. If it holds in the front range of MT and slowly heads SE(key being SLOW), that gives multiple piece of energy a chance to attack that incoming cold. Pretty much all modeling is showing severe cold...UKMET, Euro, GFS, and CMC. Duration, location of the worst of it, and extremes TBD. Sorry for the small thumbnail...had to resize it. Pivotal has the actual model run.

Really, after 100...The Euro is not too dissimilar to this 240 slide. Again, no reason to take a 240 slide verbatim. Simply showing the potential. The 12z UKMET was pretty much this cold at 144. I am just showing this so you all can see an expanded view of the MT cold with actual temps and not anomalies. That set-up is why we had such huge snow totals on yesterday's run at 12z on the Euro. The setup is still there, but the timing is different due to the range. D5-10 stuff is absolutely going to have lots of variability. However, when we look at modeling during winter, this is a great setup. Been a while since we have seen this on modeling inside of d10 .

Here are the anomalies in MT. I like front range cold in MT. That has a tendency to move SE. I am woefully low on my account memory, but here is the Euro at 240. It is simply slower with the cold - and way colder. Very difficult to find anomalies this cold. This is Siberia type stuff in February in NA. These are BN temp anomalies in MT during the middle of winter.....

Nah, it's just mid to LR forecasting - just all kinds of gremlins in play. I actually feel today's run was a big improvement to 0z. Yesterday's run was more for fun - no way we are seeing 36" in ten days. Honestly, since we still have cold in play and an active southern jet...I am encouraged. I doubt we have seen the last of the big snow runs though. I could be wrong, but with that much cold around and an active southern stream....like gasoline on a fire.

There are -66.1F temp anomalies at 240 of the Euro. LOL.

The Euro high pressures after 200 are just insane. There is a 1059 siting in MT late in that run. I am going to make the assumption that the GFS is too fast and the Euro too slow with the cold. The UKMET was lights out cold. So, we have an active southern jet and severe cold(which presses the boundary near our area) coming in the day 5-10. No idea if we score, but I take that 10/10 times if given the option.

Honestly can't decide which would be more interesting - GFS or Euro. The Euro has a 1058 hp over southern Canada in the Plains at 216!

GEFS would likely mean that there is enough cold left over after each trough to cause ice or snow with WAA. Pretty wild look.

The 12z GEFS really wants to amplify a trough over the East about every five days. That is NOT saying there is a permanent trough over the East. Trough drops in and lifts out on three separate occasions. That is a recipe for some wild solutions.

Going to have to see the ensemble. The 12z Euro is at odds with previous runs and nearly all other modeling within this suite with the exception of the ICON after storm one. The Euro can be notorious for seeing cold late. A blend of the Euro and GEFS is not a terrible thing. Probably what I would do at this point. Have no idea what the Euro is doing after storm one though....Lots of potential. Let's be glad we have storm one to track, and then take it from there. LOL. Most definitely going to be a lot of movement on modeling during the next few days re: situation after potential storm alpha/one.

Sounds odd, but I take that run in a heartbeat. I think the GFS is pushing the cold too far and the Euro is too slow. Fix those biases, and we are in the cone for at least one potential winter storm.

That second wave is not insignificant as much as the Euro loses the cold behind system on and then the model washes out. Verbatim, it tries to pop a coastal(VERY weak with storm 2) - I think.

Not even sure the Euro is believable at 174. 1030 hp over OH and 1040 in SE NE....yet it rains here?

Let's assume the Euro is right about Sunday but gets hung-up not releasing that second wave....that is a 1-2 storm scenario. Looks like a drag strip from Denver to Wilmington. Guessing these models don't have the second system modeled well since there is so much spread with storm one.

12z Euro is now now on its own at 500...the CMC and GFS are waaaay different. Looks like the Euro is slow coming out of the West again.

Not sure where this goes at 156, but that flow is basically just flat from TX to the Atlantic. Door is open for a slider now.

Now, the Euro is markedly less cold behind that system than any other model really. Opens the door for yet another storm. Let's see where it goes.

Just glad the Euro has a storm...IMO obvious the GFS is now pushing the progressive envelope. Basically a weak reflection tries to cut into west TN, then a low on the SE Atlantic coastline forms and cuts inside of Hatteras. Move all of that back about 150 miles, and that gets really interesting. Much improved solution to 0z and very close to 12z yesterday.

Watching the Euro roll. Not to notable timeframes yet. But this thought crossed my mind, we had thunder last week here IMBY...snow in it today. I am telling ya, that rule works really well.

Phase 7 may be colder...but the cold that is on the table on the UKMET is unreal. Now, it seems like 95-96 or one of those Nina winters, the MJO had virtually no influence on the pattern - meaning it rotated through the warm phases and remained cold in the East. The snow from the past two days has been right in the middle of phase 6. Last winter was phases 5-6 - was awful. @TellicoWx I want to revisit a QBO conversation that we had last winter(I may have been wrong in retrospect) where you noted that the falling of the QBO was not as correlated to the bottoming out and rising of the QBO. I am too lazy to dig back through the thread, but makes me wonder(even if the QBO is positive) if maybe the current phase of the QBO is actually helping us. It may just be as simple as the -NAO has been a good card for eastern areas of the sub-forum.

The analog is strong with these travel plans. LOL. So true, man!

Ended up with about .5" here in Kingsport. Probably have had much more, but melts and then we get more snow. It managed to close schools this AM as one burst rolled through around 7:30AM-ish and fouled the roads.

Going to sit down and watch the 12z Euro roll today. Our schools up here are out today as the NNW flow event slightly overperformed in Kingsport. I bet we have had 2-3" but it keeps melting and then getting reloaded with the next set of snow showers.

Cold looks overdone on some modeling. We will see, but off the top of my head, modeling which has been that aggressive this winter has usually verified north. Also, feb1-5 was supposed to be warm!? Welp, first two days say otherwise. If you all remember, Jan 25-30 was supposed to be super cold and then flipped on us at the last minute. I now wonder if that pattern was simply delayed to the Feb5 amplification.