Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Take a look at the 500 anomaly at 222 on Tropical Tidbits. -
Major ice storm for next Thursday into Friday there. Middle TN is likely a part of that as well.
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18z GFS is bringing the hammer to west TN with storm #2.
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Same here. Car said 46...LOL. Three of the first four days of February have had frozen precip falling from the sky. Pretty crazy.
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Can't see the frozen maps yet, but the RGEM sure looks like it could be good.
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If you bring Chattanooga snow, you will be a legend.
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Not sure why, but the TT site just flat hammers a larger area. Has 8" for Chattanooga.
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Highly recommend looking at the accumulation map on Tropical Tidbits for the 12k NAM.
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Euro operational appears supported by the EPS.
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Probably closer to 95-96, because it is driven by snow cover. 85 was the PV just settling in over NE TN. I will have to look closer...that could be happening but seems more like bitterly cold air over OH that just banks up over a snowpack west of the Apps. That is probably splitting hairs, because it is really cold either way in terms of what is being modeled. Still a long ways to go, but was interesting. Modeling for several days has shown pipe cracking cold over the Lower 48 though.
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Yeah, something was/is off. And honestly, I am not sure things aren't still wonky. It is like we had this great pattern nailed, it disappeared for 48 hours, and now it is back. I have speculated a bite with others, but not sure why. Thing is...it may not be fixed yet. One eye over my shoulder for sure right now........
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Re: 12z Euro You asked...LOL. There are temp anomalies (departures not actual temps) of 35-5F BN just after 200 rolling across the entire forum area. Snow is on the ground so that is why. Temps in the NE valleys are 10-20 degrees below zero for actual temps. That is WAY out there...would have to see it to believe it.
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Yeah, I have to be honest(I know a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush), but I am looking at that Wednesday to Sunday event more than I probably should. LOL!!!
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It is almost embarrassing to state how many degrees below normal we would be if it snows...so, I won't. So let's just say "really cold."
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No idea if this verifies, but that is good to see the para-GFS and Euro at 12z with similar looks at 12z. Snow accumulation maps are super similar. Euro is a hair east on a global scale. If we get snow, temps are going to be nuts in terms of severity. All of this is speculation, but it is on the table as of now.
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Portions of Knox Co are at 11" though 222.
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When we consider that the Euro had nothing for several runs....that is a really big jump.
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The 12z Euro has some eerily similar characteristics to the 12z para-gfs multi-day overrunning event.
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I don't know. The SLP pops off Charleston, SC. It has plenty of room to correct northwest. Would likely mean the entire storm spins up and we could have a very potent inland runner. Confluence would be earlier which could really force that thing to go neg tilt. tnweathernut is far better with that stuff than I!
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I think there has been something wrong with modeling for about 48 hours....have seemed way, way to benign given then pattern.
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So, is the 12z GFS wrong or is it wrong(in a good way) - meaning that storm should did a bit more and trend well west of even the current modeling?
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NA view 500 sort map at 144 (animate it) is like a conveyor on the Euro. No idea if it goes to the para-gfs multi-day over-running event, but the set-up is almost there.
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Request for the entire run here. Pivotal goes to 240...can you get more?
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You may still get to yet! LOL. I am not ruling out any scenario. Mine need washing as well. Just got it done last weekend, and now have salt all over them again.
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The 12z para-GFS is just going nuts. Frame that run. Crazy. Not saying that verifies...but wild, wild multi-day over-running event. Overall accumulation map is pretty will as well...think it doesn't go past 240 or it would be more due to the storm just after 240.
