Carvers Gap

0z NAM (3k and 12K) have run...

12z GEFS still shows the potential for overrunning next week. Probably just need to lean on ensembles right now and not operationals....stuff is all over the place right now even inside of d3.

18z GEFS mean is very similar to the 18z Euro for system one.

Yeah, nice to have the Euro and RGEM singing the same song now. That is a good combo. Was just coming over to post that the Euro bumped up totals in general by about .5-1".

I don't think temps will be a big issue with the precip on the back side. I am just not sure that precip amounts are going to be high enough to get 2-4." With it being at night, that could help. Just seems like the overall system is less juicy. The mountains usually outperform valley locations here in terms of precip amounts - should have mentioned that earlier.

MRX indeed kicked the lower elevation call to the next shift...right thing to do with modeling still all over the place.

Agree, just not used to seeing it do that inside of 120.

MRX does have a snow map posted if someone wants to show it. I would probably shift heaviest amounts to the Plateau, but overall fits modeling.

Was mainly kidding. LOL. Great write-up this evening by MRX BTW. Also mentioned the potential in the LR as well. Sounds like they are using ensembles quite a bit which speaks to the inconsistency of operational and even short range modeling.

If I was MRX, I would kick valley location decisions to the next shift. LOL.

But one place the Euro is really susceptible is with getting hung-up in the southwest...but that normally happens at d+5.

Which looks like the CMC/GFS operational combo.

Definitely not just a Euro problem. The UKMET, GFS, and CMC all seem to be jumping around in unison which makes me thing there is a data ingest(or lack thereof) problem. The shift in unison away from the pattern a few days ago and then promptly back...makes me think we have a data issue. Ensembles, as MRX notes, are probably the way to go right now. They have been pretty steady.

I just think something is really off right now with modeling. I will say it makes since with the trough amplification to have a storm move sharply north - that makes sense. What doesn't make sense is why modeling took this long to get to this point. It has been obvious for weeks. We were dealing with out to see options just a few days ago. I really think we are entering a time frame where we need to see the cold driven to the Gulf Coast, and then have the boundary work back north...in order to have a shot.

The NAM is moving the snow axis about 150 miles a pop to the NW. Nice statewide run even it is less than favorable for MBY.

I am going to ride with @PowellVolz on this. I think something is out of whack right now. It is definitely not out of the ordinary for modeling to flip. Happens more than we like. That said, this flip flop stuff from one extreme to the other is odd within short time increments. Might see one flip, and that is it...but not the multiple extremes which we have seen for several days. Maybe it is just extreme cold which is in play. Maybe it is just shoulder season stuff since we are leaving our normal, winter long wave pattern. Maybe there is a computer or data problem. Something is off.

The 12z EPS actually looks very much like the CMC operational.

Regarding mid-late week overrunning event: The 12z EPS pushes the front through E TN at 174 which is later than 0z which was at 114. Everything is similar to 0z until the front hits west TN and then it CRAWLS across the state for nearly 60 hours. So, that creates an extended time opportunity for overrunning. The operational doesn't press the front through E TN until 222! It stalls the front in Missouri. So, there is some support to slow the front, but the actual operational is out of step with pretty much every model at this point....but I don't discount it. The EPS still has the overrunning window while the operational halts the cold in the Plains.

The 12z EPS provides some support for the operational. However, it is not to the extreme extent that it flips the pattern. Still has the overrunning event later next week. Something to keep an eye on for sure...big changes from the Euro should not be taken lightly.

12z Euro is much different than the 12z suite and much different than its other runs. It may be correct and it may not be. I think it is a combination of an error(getting hung up in the West for the umpteenth time this winter only to have it not verify nearly as strong) and a legit MJO trend not to go into phase 8 but the COD. It will be nearly 40-50 degrees warmer in some forum locations for later next week. At this point, I am not buying that extreme of a shift, but there is some trend to keep the cold west of the Apps - that I buy...just not West of the Apps as in Oregon.

This is my opinion, I think the Euro is playing games again in the West. It has a tendency to dig too much out there. This solution was different from Wednesday onward - way different. Just going to have to wait on its ensemble to see if this is a big shift or an outlier. Tendency would be to toss it as of now...but will wait to see the EPS.

Just posted the MSLP comparison anomaly above...

Take a look at this at 174. The big high has just vanished. So, this run is either going to score a massive coup or be tossed as an outlier. I know better than to disagree with the Euro when it makes big changes. However, that is just a massive massive break in continuity. We will see if other models follow suit during the next few runs. New is on the left.

MASSIVLEY different run on the 12z Euro...doesn't fit with its other runs nor the rest of the 12z suite. Completely loses the high over the nation's mid-section later next week...poof. We will see if he ensemble supports that.....

At 144(132 this run...144 0z run), the Euro has again lost a hp over the Plains which is allowing for a more robust southerly flow.