Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, having a couple of guys out is going to be problematic, but Barnes will make sure the game gets played. Winning in Bama has always been tough for TN. UT plays at Bama, LSU, and UK during the first three weekends of the SEC season....all ranked, all on Saturday, and all on the road. Rob Lewis mentioned that the SEC did UT no favors...I concur. Then, we scheduled Texas for the last weekend of January in Austin. Brutal schedule for January. If we can stay slightly above 500, that would be an accomplishment given the SOS. If Memphis hadn't cancelled, UT would have played Memphis, Zona, and Bama in consecutive games. Barnes doesn't shy away from great competition. We have already played Villanova, Texas Tech, UNC, Colorado(in Boulder) and the aforementioned Arizona team. -
LR looks good overnight, more of a status quo when compared to modeling yesterday. Still not sure I trust the MJO, but looks good. Question will be does it keep progressing into one and two or loop back into 6 and then start the process over again? @jaxjagmanmentioned (I think...correct me if I am wrong, Jax) that the waters in the equatorial regions of the western Pacific are warming from Nina levels. Think I read that the subsurface was very warm. That may well allow the MJO to progress into phases 8-1 much easier. The storm next weekend has always been a bit of a push for MBY. Front is too strong, and it is OTS. Front is too weak and cuts west. We really need the front to slow down once it exits our region and drag the trailing front into the GOM. The GFS was getting by with that solution, because it was likely (and possibly erroneously) modeling a weaker cold front. That allowed the front to wash out and essentially stall. Flow backed just enough to allow for a storm. Now, that front is blasting through and it is cold chasing rain. Still, I wouldn't give up on that window just yet. Not uncommon for storms to be lost in this time frame. Agree with @John1122 that it is often a sequence of storms which eventually gives us a shot. I think we are entering a pattern where the cold loads out West and surges eastward. How long that lasts? TBD. Again, when severe is seen in the valley, it is not uncommon to see a cold/stormy pattern follow a couple of weeks later.
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My lights are still on, so I know that isn't true! LOL.
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18z GEFS looks fantastic. Has the cold shot on Jan 9/10. Two trackable windows right now. No assurances, but better than watching the big red ball over Dutch Harbor.
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Will be interesting to see where modeling goes tomorrow. Need to see a day or two more of this before I would buy what they were cooking today - huge EPO/PNA ridge, multiple Arctic fronts, prolonged cold/snowy pattern. I remember a few years back where we had a great looking pattern headed into Jan on modeling....then the models missed a strat split(which occurred) and modeling went sideways.
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The great Chattanooga teleconnection. Like clockwork.
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Either that or they are just letting us all go play in the backyard for a bit to get some energy out, and then will call us in for dinner when gets out of hand.
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@John1122, that is your pattern, man, on the EPS after 300.
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LOL. That is a legit EPO/PNA ridge at 354. Models are all over the place this suite. Not sure which one my money is one(probably wise to take the warmest), but I hope the EPS is on to something and not on something!
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The 12z EPS is bound and determined to flip the PNA pattern. Whether that occurs or not, I give it an "A+" for the effort. In all seriousness, looks like the 12z CFSv2 and GEFS leaned towards the EPS...correct or not? Again, the irony of the EPS is that it is now a +PNA/-EPO pattern after 300. Take a look at the surface temps...cold is cutting under those 500 heights.
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Good thing...the EPS is at the point of the season where it begins to have lots of weight. If the tables were turned and we were in a cold pattern that the GEFS was continuing and the EPS turned warm...which one would you think might have the most chance of being right?
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Through roughly 300, it has kind of doubled down on its look....consistent with its MJO look as well. BIG, BIG difference is the AH is basically gone when compared to other ensembles.
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The 12z Euro doesn't feed back with the western slp(off the coast of California). Overall, good look from that run. We will see what the ensemble says.....
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Euro looks a lot like the cmc at 500 and GFS for the 3rd storm...best of both worlds.
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So looking at both the GEFS and GEPS finish their runs after 300. Both show a cold pattern at 500 for much of the US between the Rockies and the Apps. That looks more like their MJO plots. Just wanted to add that addendum. The GEFS looks more like the EPS now(which was a good look at 0z). Maybe another cold shot around the 10th.
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Check that...looks more like an AK block with some AH high mixed in....
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In the LR, looks like the trend is to retain the Aleutian high. Still a long way out there, and modeling looks out of sync with their MJO plots. GEPS took a step to the GEFS at 12z - though certainly not extreme as the GEFS. So, for now looks like we have a window for winter weather with the front that passes through, then a strong warm-up, and then TBD around the 10th.
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The 6z CFSv2 started to look likes MJO plot. Something is way off regarding American modeling and their MJO plots at CPC.
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Yeah, the 12z GFS doesn't even look realistic in its run, eventually stringing together lots of small vortices and rotating them around that high. May happened, but will have to literally see it on a satellite to believe it. Looks like The Day after Tomorrow when it starts stringing vortices together in a line like it does at the end of its run. LOL. This is 384 which I normally wouldn't show, but the model is doing some weird stuff in the LR. It may verify, but the likely feedback problem on the model is producing this.
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The GFS is leaving the Aleutian high in place after a brief relaxation in the pattern, and that is certainly realistic. If that slp kicks off the Cali coast after Jan 3 it likely doesn't allow the AH to rebuild. That vortex backs the flow and reforms the AH.
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To me, the past three runs of the GFS seem to struggle with feedback and the western slp after the 3rd. It just sits there which digs the downstream ridge. The CMC does not have this nor does the EPS.
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The weaker GFS solution is actually allowing for less suppression in the short run. My guess is the cold front is more CMC-like and less GFS-like. You can already see the second front reloading on the CMC late in the run.
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The GFS right now is producing solutions which are far, far different than its own MJO or other global operationals. It is either about to score a coup, or it is struggling. Its cold front on the 3rd is much weaker than the CMC or ICON. Seems like an error, but time will tell. Large difference begin then.
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6z GFS plasters portions of middle/west TN. You all need to head tot he Midwest/Ohio to see the comments which were posted from their local NWS disco statement. I often read the MA forum, because a lot of their weather begins IMBY. If I lived in middle/west TN, I would get my hands on that post given what we saw the GFS just do. The CMC has a storm further east. Euro, as expected, is slower and more west than the other two solutions. 12z might be an interesting suite if models keep showing that look. My guess would be middle and west TN for now - but low confidence that modeling has this sorted out. It could simply cut well west of the area. In the LR, the past two runs GEFS has little support for its solutions at 0/6z, even from its own MJO plots. Could be a coup and leading the way or it could be dealing with feedback from a slp which stalls along the west coast as a result of a split trough. The GEFPS and especially the EPS have excellent solutions which would produce winter. For now, I go with the GEPS/EPS combo. What is weird is the GEFS MJO looks fantastic! Wonder if that model might be getting ready to move yet again. Tough pattern for models to work out. LOW CONFIDENCE in timing of the potential next cold shot after the 3rd-5th. Would guess it is around the 10th, but we will see. American modeling looks significantly worse today, though their MJOs looks textbook for cold. Something is going to have to give. The actual 6z GFS looks reasonable though. Holston has given a great rundown this morning. Questions still which need to be answered over the next few days. Is this a pattern relaxation which simply returns to its December form? Is this a new pattern which may still put the trough out West? Or is this a return to the November pattern in a step down fashion during January? Again, it is super important to look at the mslp under those 500 looks. Some of those looks are terrible at 500, but the surface map is below normal. I say that because the 500 look has been fooling me for days, and the MSLP tells a different story. Great write-up, @Holston_River_Rambler
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Yeah, the CMC is similar to the GFS regarding the possible event for the 3rd.
