Carvers Gap

Rally cap...long shot stuff. I didn't feel like the 0z Euro was exactly benign centered on March 3. Also, the 12z para-GFS has a low which takes the low road, but with a less than optimal thermal profile around the same time frame. Cold is not exactly in play, but this is a ways out and things could change(for the better or worse).

The 12z EPS at 270 is textbook phase 8 for March. Trough tucked east of the Apps with ridging out West. Makes me think that ensemble may correct more.

Euro Weeklies 500 look looks like a very slow progression into spring. NAO refires and sends additional shots of cold into the East - at least two in March. Looks like a normal-ish spring time pattern. Keep in mind the 2m temps on the Weeklies are always warm. Have to actually look at the 500 pattern and temps at 850. Think we get a warm-up and more of the pattern from February. Looks very much like a pattern reload.

Still waiting for the warm-up! Cold rain here today - very cold. My summer forecast is easy this year...hot and getting hotter. Have seen several mets who have stated something similar, so that is nothing new. La Nina often means really hot summers IMBY.

Yes! Have a great time. Sunshine, is that even a thing anymore? LOL

My advice for folks is to pick a window which looks good, see if it has model support, look at the MJO for support, look for blocking, and see if modeling works back to your idea. MJO on US models this AM shows it migrating towards and into cold, very low amplitude background phases. I think we have a shot at snow right before the big warm-up, and then right as we get colder again as we should in early March if the MJO is only halfway right. Ensembles this morning don't look great for early March, but I am riding with the MJO right now and NAO block. We have seen this pattern all winter where models take some time to find the cold shot. Guess is that we see the NAO form on the east side of the block, retrograde back west in very early March, cold builds into Alaska, dumps down the front range, and then pours eastward for one last shot. It is not a certainty, but looks like a strong possibility. If the MJO cooperates, that could be a problem for the Eastern half of the country. Time will tell.

Off the top of my head(and I probably need to dig through the obs threads), I think my seasonal total is between 7-8" of actual events more than 1". I honestly have lost track of the nickel and dime stuff under 1". Rough calculation from the airport is 10" or so. That is probably pretty close for me. The airport for DJF has recorded 19 days with a trace or more. I have rarely scored so little while having so many days of recorded snow. LOL. But I am not complaining....Christmas Eve Storm along with the west/middle forum area event(and many other smaller events)...I have really enjoyed this winter. The Christmas Eve tracking will be one I will remember for a long time. Our mountains have had snow most of the winter which is kind of cool. @Math/Met, what is your total now? I think you might be running higher than me.

Snowed steadily for an hour or two here as well this AM - a trace in the grass. Reminds me of June out in Yellowstone. You kind of get the feeling that spring is waiting around the corner, but winter isn't quite giving up just yet.

Had yet another day running in the snow. I have never seen so many days of snow with so few inches of it! LOL.

It is crazy. We are in a pattern where we have a threat about every 7-10 days. I really like the March 3rd -15th timeframe. MJO is less hostile(unless it dives into 6). The EMON and Euro really like the MJO heading into background cooler/colder phases. US modeling is not there yet. Just get us some cold into this active weather pattern, and let's see what it can cook up! LOL.

Looks like another system for middle and west just glancing through the 192 panels. GFS is all E TN, but it really struggled with this current system.

So the 12z GFS and the Euro at 192 are trying to snow during the warm-up. That is a change.

We haven't had a load of snow at TRI this winter, but I decided to see how many days in the snow we have run. Double checked it with records at TR...looks like TRI has received 17 days of a trace or more. Talk about nickel and diming. It doesn't amount to a lot as there are a ton of dustings. We do a lot of running above 2,000', and that has been out of commission due to mud and snow during the past couple of weeks. Again, I "think" one last window awaits just after March 3rd. One word of caution, some of these warm-ups have actually had chances during those time frames. Wavelengths during spring can cause abrupt swings as you all know.

It is worth noting, and I can tell this due to my running journal, that we are getting events about every 7-10 days in NE TN. We have run in a lot of snow and slop this winter - more days than I have seen in some time. We have also run in A LOT of mud.

An upper South skiff of sleet IMBY this AM.

Last two windows I am looking at before we break for spring: 1. Outside shot around the 25th...Most model looks are cutters for the now. The para-GFS is close to something good. For now though, looks like a cutter. 2. Time frame after March 3rd looks like an actual significant trough amplification or a big bowling ball. Each trough amplification this year has pretty much produced somewhere in the forum. This amplification might well be more than just a 1-2 day event, but it also could just be a big storm showing up on LR 500 modeling. I "think" that last window mentioned is just a repeat of the current pattern which we have been a part of all winter. Big amplification somewhere between the Rockies and Apps, followed by significant moderation in the pattern(a reload), and wash-rinse-repeat. Think we cycle through that one more time. Even though climatology works against many at this point, I would suggest that the amplification potential in early March doesn't rule anyone out. Late winter and spring chasing is full of uncertainty, so beware. But it does snow in March sometimes. Looks like Cosgrove late month warm-up will verify. He also says the pattern will recharge. Normally, I would say we are about to break for spring. In reality, I think we are about to experience another 7-10 warm-up before yet another cold shot into the Lower 48.

Hit my forecast high on time. Should start coming back down.

18z RGEM has run....added more snow for TRI.

Make sure you drink plenty of water and stay out of the sun.

Two words for ya in regard to that...process upset.

Sitting at 75 here in Kingsport.

Double edged sword IMO. As Boone notes, it cuts the warm nose. However, heavier rates may well have forced the air column to cool more efficiently.

This system is now becoming "almost" a traditional slider.

Trend right now is for a faster system and less precip due to that. RGEM cut my qpf by half....still mostly frozen but much less precip overall. Looks like it cut precip totals across the state.

12k NAM is absolutely terrible for TRI regarding ice. 3k NAM is better. Trend for TRI on the NAM is ice right now.