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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Spring/Summer 2021 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like it snowed on Mt Leconte this morning.- 86 replies
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Spring/Summer 2021 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Indeed, a chance for snow is now included at highest elevations for Wednesday.- 86 replies
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Spring/Summer 2021 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked to see some snow above 3K' on Wednesday - Plateau and Apps in the usual spots prone to late season frozen precip.- 86 replies
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Tomatoes, basil, dill, and peppers....started those indoors a few weeks ago though! Have a smaller high tunnel which I use outside as well.
- 292 replies
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Monitoring a potential cold shot which could mature into another frost/freeze around the 19th. Appears to be a western ridge/eastern trough on both ensembles and operationals setting up shop. Can't tell if this is a long duration event or not. Heat is building in the Southwest at the same time which I would think would have a chance at coming eastward at some point. Would not be surprised a cool 10-14 time frame from April 14th-24th(maybe longer....just don't know). So holding off in NE TN right now until probably the Kentucky Derby weekend. All of the above info could change as modeling is especially fickle during shoulder season.
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Spring/Summer 2021 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Cold shot in the d5-15...not a fan.- 86 replies
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Beautiful day today! Yesterday was cold, windy, and raw with snow falling from the sky on occasion. Today is postcard worthy. Cover up those at-risk plants tonight! as it is going to be very cold. Our seasonal hoop house(which I was wondering if it was even going to be needed) has been up for about a month. This week it is worth its weight in gold. We roll up the sides during the day and drop them at night when it goes below 32. Tonight is going to be pushing the limits even for it. Good thing is that most of what is in the garden right now is just cold hard stuff anyway.
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Snow coming down at a good clip right now. We have snow on raised surfaces and a little bit on the roads. No April Fools....legit stuff. We will now record a healthy trace here - maybe even a tenth of an inch of snow. Normally, that is no big deal, but in April it is pretty cool.
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Off and on light snow showers today here at TRI. Fairly amazing on April 1st after the warmth and flooding that we have had during the past week. MANY trails in the mountains and parks have severe ruts in them due to the heavy rain.
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@John1122 Beautiful day for sure. We managed to get some running and hiking in....
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Looks like NW Kingsport received just over 5" of rain during the past 18 hours.
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RE: First line that came through TRI this morning.... The hail photos out of Kingsport and JC are crazy. Today was our long run. Miles 1-4 were uneventful. We could hear the storm coming up behind us. Called my wife to get to our pick-up point early which is at mile 6.5. We hit mile 6.3(just .2 from the car) and had to stop under a bridge as the storm crossed the ridge and went bonkers. I wasn't sure we could get across the parking lot without getting hit by lightning. Temps began to drop quickly. They came over and picked us up. We all sat in the car as the storm roared through. We had nickel to quarter size hail. Picked up one dent - old van and not worried. Managed to get some video and photos near the last 1/3 of the storm. The Greenbelt was flooded within minutes in that section. @tnweathernut shared this with me...
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Crazy!!!! ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MST SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 24 inches possible. Accumulations up to 30 inches possible near Boulder and Fort Collins. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver, Denver, Castle Rock, and Greeley. * WHEN...From 5 AM MST Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Finish preparation for this storm by Friday. Conditions will likely deteriorate quickly Saturday as the storm arrives.
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If I was moving to the area and location was not an issue....western NC on a northwest facing slope @Ji. As for everyone else. The 12z CMC spitting out single digits late in its run. Whew. Modeling starting to sniff out a trough amplification during the d10-15. Location TBD but likely east of the Rockies.
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The MJO continues to advertise a cold shot of air mid-month or just after. Not saying snow or snow storm. I would think higher elevations are not done(maybe even folks along the KY/VA/TN/NC border. Ensembles are beginning to pick up on an eastern trough around mid-month which fits the MJO nicely. If this fits the pattern of cold shots that make it into the Lower 48, it may be abnormally cold. We will see. Enjoy this great weather!
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You can see the 18z GFS-para with a very good pass of a slp around the 6th. 1040 hp sitting just north of the GL. If that pulls north(and likely will as spring bowling balls are notorious for shifting north even at the last minute), that is not a terrible look. We really want stuff in Cuba at this time of year, and let it work back northward.