Carvers Gap

Might not hurt to add Middle/West TN to the thread title or tags so when we go back and search(in future years), it will be easier to find....

The 12z CMC/RGEM is developing a low which takes the low road Tuesday. Modeling seems to be split between sending some energy up the west slopes of the Apps and then developing a lee side low or hybrid Miller A OR just going with a Miller A. Some fairly different solutions out there right now regarding Tuesday. ICON/CMC camp vs GFS.

Nope. We just follow each threat. Been middle and west for several days. Totally fine with that BTW.

Do we need a new storm thread for the next system or just want to rename the other thread as some sort of multi-day overrunning thread? It doesn't matter to me as I have no horse in the race...but what is being modeled is significant. Maybe wait until 12z and then work it.

Thanks, man, for keeping our middle and west TN folks in mind. I know we have been focused on the eastern sub-forum areas this winter, but glad we can get the folks out in those areas (who have waited patiently...Memphis has waited seemingly forever) involved in our winter discussions.

Some fairly significant trends with the MJO today. The EURO is now forecast to hustle out of 7 and even duck into 8 for a couple of days. The GFS is now forecast to hustle out of 7(big trend last it was not even getting out of 7 a few days ago...and looping back into 6 if memory serves me correctly), into the COD, and then back to warm phases. The good news is the MJO is forecast to get out of 7. Now, both head towards warmer phases at some point...but check the EMON (posted it above) as one potential that might occur. I suspect we are about to see some model discontinuity coming up. Often, when we see this push by the Euro...we see changes just after d5. Let's see its next couple of runs. That, at the very least, shows a trough in the East for 3-4 days. With the cold in the pattern right now, 3-4 days of a trough in the east would be nice.

Latest EMON is out for the MJO....well, isn't that interesting. Makes a beeline out of 7 into the COD, makes a move to 6, and then back to background cold phase COD. Ya'll, I don't think winter is over yet in eastern areas. It might be, but I think we have a system or two yet to track. Climo definitely begins to work against some with each passing week after this week...but this year just has the feel that this is now actually winter. We will see. And not the pattern hasn't been pushed back...it is just not centered over E TN. This is a middle and west TN pattern and a doozy at that. It is one that may well be remembered for some time in the western areas of our subforum.

Just looking at the snowmegeddon snow axis for west TN, it has shifted into that SE region....there is definitely a press going on there.

Euro is east with most of its features next week. We need to keep an eye on these trends. Sullivan may have some issues Monday if 12z is correct...nothing like out west but a mixed bag.

The 6z GFS had a light mix/icing event Tuesday re: NE TN. And for the record, the multi-day overrunning event is likely going to verify for this subforum - just not the NE corner...yet. Let’s see the trend on modeling for next week before pronouncing E TN out of the picture. I am not even sure I want any part of an ice storm. That said, the boundary has slowly pressed eastward for Tuesday. This is how much modeling has missed the current system regarding SE positioning...I am 4 miles from the latest ice advisory area.

Tuesday set-up is not good - and I don't mean rain.

Thing is...the Para-GFS, UKMET, and CMC are even further SE with the cold boundary with the Euro still trending that way. This might be a case where the cold makes it to the Apps on Tuesday and banks right up against it. With a 1046 in that position, the cold would run down the spine of the Apps into the eastern valley unit it gets moved out of the way. IF, IF that looks is legit....eastern valley could be much colder if the precip gets out in front of the low. Again, I think this boundary keeps pushing eastward to at least the Apps before the SER beats it back.

The other thing is that it is very likely that more precip overruns that boundary earlier. If that happens, it would quite likely trap the cold in the valley from TYS to SW VA. It would scour over time, but that is ZR city right there for the eastern valley and way worse for middle TN.

Thing is the HP might get moved...but that is some really cold air that is going to likely get trapped north of I-40 if that is legit. That is nasty.

It is way more extreme than that. Let me see if I can grab a map and post it under CG2.

Wow. I am not sure the cold will get out of the way quickly enough with that. That is a bananan1046 high over an incoming storm. That is winter storm city there.

It moved 700 miles?

That is a significant move eastward of the boundary. In NE TN temps are almost 20F+ colder than the previous run...

12z Euro run has pushed the gradient further eastward on Tuesday through 123.

Pivotal looks good through 144. Looks like the entire state has 2+"...maybe almost the entire forum area.

Para-GFS, CMC, and UKMET at 12z all have something frozen in the eastern valley on Tuesday. GFS cuts further west.

Think E TN will get some looks eventually with this pattern. The pattern doesn't appear to be going anywhere. And this is not a pattern that is not producing for the forum area...it is just not producing for all backyards which is understandable given the size and microclimates of our region. However, this looks like west TN's pattern for now, and it is wild. I am not complaining. Yeah, I would like to see more snow IMBY(knee high to a giraffe always!). However, west TN has had to see the many of us talk about winter for years and years with few results, especially the Memphis area. Would really like to see Chattanooga sneak into this pattern as well at some point. West TN(especially Memphis) and Chattanooga have been in a snow/winter wx drought.

Disco from Memphis this morning....worth the entire read. DISCUSSION... A significant ice storm is expected to impact the Mid South later this afternoon through early Thursday afternoon. We are already seeing some icing and dangerous travel this morning across Arkansas. The Ice Storm Warning continues to be adjusted this morning as the push of colder air made it into the AR/MS delta regions. We have added Lee and Phillips Counties in AR to the warning, and we have also adjusted the Winter Storm Watch to include more areas in west Tennessee and north Mississippi. This will continue to be the case as we go through the event. Portions of the area will be upgraded to Ice Storm Warnings as the event unfolds. The freezing line this morning is draped across the forecast area and we will continue to watch the progress of this line as it will snake across the Mid South and serve as the delineation of ZR and rain. Taking a look at the range of possibilities for ice accumulation across the Mid South, we are generally seeing most of the guidance keep ice accumulations less than an inch of ice for the Mid South. The Worst Case Scenario (90th Percentile) shows a swath of 0.5 to 0.75 inch of ice along and north of I-40...just north of downtown Memphis, and a quarter inch of ice as far south as Clarksdale, MS. The most likely scenario (50th Percentile) has a swath of ice of 0.25-0.40 along and north of I-40 with little to no accumulation south of I-40. The official forecast sticks close to WPC guidance with is more in line with the 50th percentile. We will have to watch for trends in obs and rainfall to adjust the forecast as needed. Either way a significant ice storm will make travel very dangerous...cause power outages...and tree damage. The other thing to be said for this event is that this ice has the potential to be around for a while. Precipitation will move out and end on Thursday, but from Thursday night onward....portions of the forecast area will not get above freezing until late next week. Ice could be around into the weekend. This means the possibility of power outages with bitterly cold temperatures for several days. Wind chill readings Friday and Saturday will be quite cold, approaching single digits in some areas. A fast-moving trough will bring a chance for very light snow to portions of the area Saturday evening, but no impacts are anticipated. A reinforcing cold shot will arrive by Sunday, where wind chill values will fall below zero early next week. Beyond the cold...another system is expected to impact the Mid South Monday night into Tuesday. This could bring another shot of winter precipitation, but let`s get past this ice storm first before we dive into that system.

Tellico, that looks like a bit of a shift trend southeast on that run. Is that your take?

JB mentioned the same error. I have seen systems cut between just a sliver daylight between two big highs. I also have seen big highs exit quickly. But some of the stuff shown lately just seems so counterintuitive. A great example is how far south the ice line has trended. It was just north of the Ohio River. Now it is running though sought KY. My suspicion is that this cold finds its way to the Plateau and then banks west of the Apps. Might take several storms for this to occur, but I like that option. I like this pattern. Maybe I won't in the end...but truly being near the boundary between cold and precip is interesting to follow. Also, modeling is VERY prone to big shifts even in the medium range right now. So, I think any solution that appears locked-ed at d5...might not be. And yeah, sometimes it is like modeling doesn't see the NAO block and then it is like....whoa, better fix that solution once it finally "sees" it.