Carvers Gap

12z GFS has a definite uptick in snow accumulation - both Kuchera and non-Kuchera. The 12z suite across the board has seen a slight uptick in general - so far.

For comparison, here is the 0z EPS for the 10-20th. Not a great signal but a weak signal. That does not take into account ice I don't think. So, one might wonder if the southern extent of that is indeed icy. Biggest takeaway I have is how far south the extent of frozen precipitation is....

Yeah, agree. Need it moving towards 8 or COD and then we get enough help from the Pac to push the cold eastward.

For reference, here is the 6z GEFS 10 day snow map beginning on Wednesday so as to eliminate tonight's shenanigans.

Very realistic and has occurred many times in the past....my guess it that is does bank against the Plateau(if the cold indeed pushes that far). Then a couple of fronts will likely press it onward. But the setup on modeling is a classic old school set-up for ice in western sub-forum areas. Used to happen like that when I was a kid and lived in Knoxville(70s). I share this often, but I used to think our cold came from due West, because Memphis was always coldest first w/ ice.

Worth saying about 1000x.

The 16 day run of the 6z GFS. It is going to be the zero or the hero. LOL. Of course the Euro had something similar as well just a few days ago. Of course, a lot of this is ice - so be sure to make that distinction. That would be a really big pattern for this entire subform. This is the potential for the pattern if the cold presses like the 6z GFS had.

Kind of an interesting test today....the NCEP/MJO plots show the MJO heading for 8 or COD just under the 8 plot(meaning background phases of MJO are cold). Let's see if modeling follows suit today.

That is no knock on the Euro BTW. It is a fantastic model, but it is shoulder season time, and that model is very mortal when seasons begin to change. All modeling is bouncing all over the place right now with this boundary and even with this current storm. I don't really have a "go to" model at this point. I think we are just going to have to rely on pattern recognition for a while. So, the real answer I am going to be looking for is the how strong the cold front will be later this week, its speed, and location. In other words, we needs its vector...victor.

I don't think the Euro is modeling this front well. I see some posts on other forums where Arctic air is often modeled too quickly and overdone. Indeed, that is often the case, and I don't disagree. However, there are times(because cold air is relatively low to the ground) that modeling misses the southerly extent of the cold air. Ditto to BNA above in saying that modeling is struggling with the Arctic front. When models can't reach consensus 12 hours from now, they don't have the late week pattern nailed down either IMO. The pattern has the potential to support a big overrunning event. I am just going with prior knowledge and not modeling...there should be an event. It is going to depend on whether the cold gets hung up on the Plateau(very plausible) OR seeps into the eastern valley and banks against the west slopes of the Apps. So, my guess is that western forum areas get hit with 1-2 ice/snow/mix systems(one significant) and then the from presses east towards the eastern valley. I think the 6z GFS may be on to something. Now the really question for me is whether a system remains to run the cold when it moves into the eastern valley. So for now, I am not swaying with model runs...just think this has a reasonable chance of occurring. We spotted this evening's system a couple of weeks ago by recognizing the pattern and knowing that a storm was possible. That doesn't mean we get snow tonight BTW, but it has been something to track and the NWS has issued winter weather products for various locations.

0z NAM (3k and 12K) have run...

12z GEFS still shows the potential for overrunning next week. Probably just need to lean on ensembles right now and not operationals....stuff is all over the place right now even inside of d3.

18z GEFS mean is very similar to the 18z Euro for system one.

Yeah, nice to have the Euro and RGEM singing the same song now. That is a good combo. Was just coming over to post that the Euro bumped up totals in general by about .5-1".

I don't think temps will be a big issue with the precip on the back side. I am just not sure that precip amounts are going to be high enough to get 2-4." With it being at night, that could help. Just seems like the overall system is less juicy. The mountains usually outperform valley locations here in terms of precip amounts - should have mentioned that earlier.

MRX indeed kicked the lower elevation call to the next shift...right thing to do with modeling still all over the place.

Agree, just not used to seeing it do that inside of 120.

MRX does have a snow map posted if someone wants to show it. I would probably shift heaviest amounts to the Plateau, but overall fits modeling.

Was mainly kidding. LOL. Great write-up this evening by MRX BTW. Also mentioned the potential in the LR as well. Sounds like they are using ensembles quite a bit which speaks to the inconsistency of operational and even short range modeling.

If I was MRX, I would kick valley location decisions to the next shift. LOL.

But one place the Euro is really susceptible is with getting hung-up in the southwest...but that normally happens at d+5.

Which looks like the CMC/GFS operational combo.

Definitely not just a Euro problem. The UKMET, GFS, and CMC all seem to be jumping around in unison which makes me thing there is a data ingest(or lack thereof) problem. The shift in unison away from the pattern a few days ago and then promptly back...makes me think we have a data issue. Ensembles, as MRX notes, are probably the way to go right now. They have been pretty steady.

I just think something is really off right now with modeling. I will say it makes since with the trough amplification to have a storm move sharply north - that makes sense. What doesn't make sense is why modeling took this long to get to this point. It has been obvious for weeks. We were dealing with out to see options just a few days ago. I really think we are entering a time frame where we need to see the cold driven to the Gulf Coast, and then have the boundary work back north...in order to have a shot.

The NAM is moving the snow axis about 150 miles a pop to the NW. Nice statewide run even it is less than favorable for MBY.