Carvers Gap

The 12z Euro seems to be beginning the overrunning event on Wednesday. It has a light mix along the KY/TN border where it had none at 0z. That is quite a different look.

Switching back to this thread for the late week look from the Euro....

It is craziness. Was just looking at it myself.

Euro is slightly NW like the rest of the 12z suite. Its western edge of snow accumulation has definitely trended west over the forum area. Looks like modeling is defiintiely relying on the backside of the precip to be enhanced as the system along the coast pulls northward.

Holston has to be thinking right now...might be time to schedule a trip to Kingsport and the EB.

The 12z GFS not any better over middle TN. Looks like the 12z suite really wants to stall the boundary right at the Plateau or Apps - take your pick. Looks like modeling is wanting to come out of phase 7 on the MJO into the COD with phase 8 as a background state. Certainly looks like what we are seeing on modeling right now.

That is crazy, man. I am just looking at who doesn't have ice so I can show up unannounced like Cousin Eddie.

It gets worse...LOL. Wurbus just turned out the lights on most of the forum.

And that is before the big stuff hits....

.7" ice accumulations in portions of eastern Kentucky through 153.

Edit: .3-.4" ice accums through 153 for portions of west and middle TN.

The CMC only takes 150 hours to push the cold boundary across the entire state. That is a wide open window for all kinds of winter weather.

Will depend on precip amounts. The orientation of that axis and slow movement of the front could be a problem. But definitely don't want to lose power and then have record cold. The CMC does not push as much cold eastward FWIW. Stalls the boundary which is why it is bad in terms of zr.

12z CMC is very icy for the eastern valley areas.

The CMC has 4-5 waves of frozen precip which slowly press the boundary eastward.

12z CMC also has the overrunning event for later next week. It is a bit further east and less cold. I think we are looking at the potential for the front stalling at the spine of the Apps and/or the Plateau. Edit: Well some of it must get past the Apps as there is also a decent CAD signature for NC during part of that event.

@AMZ8990, that right over your house?

Edit: It is in agreement with its operational. The different snow algorithms are messing with my mind.

The 12z GEFS mean is stout for much of the Plateau and eastward.

Yep, think it is a problem for those in the foothills on the west slopes. Agree.

The trend at 12z is a big move northwest with the snow axis. The CMC has now placed the northern Plateau in the game. If the CMC is correct, would think Monterey and Crossville would be in the game now. It is crazy how far west this has come since 0z. I just don't think modeling has caught up so I am not sure where this ends up....

Give it a day or so, but may be time for a separate thread for that cold shot and potential overrunning event. If modeling is even halfway correct, that event could be significant for many in the forum area - if not ice, then severe cold. Really tracking two events right now...the system this weekend and the cold/potential overruning event later next week.

Man, going to get ridiculously cold if we get frozen before that cold shot. The scenario is there where we could have wide spread power outages prior to a really severe cold outbreak.

So here is why this is so difficult to predict. Think about how a hurricane when it is approaching the coast at a 90 degree angle, the cone is easy to set for the most part. Now, if the hurricane is running parallel to the coast...much tougher. Any degree of change to a storm running parallel to the coast could result in hundreds of miles of changes in landfall forecasts. Pretty much the same deal with this overrunning event next week. The slightest change in angle of that boundary is moving that frozen boundary all over the place.

The trend with the 12z GFS is to push further south with the cold post 100.