Carvers Gap

I am really liking western areas of the forum for winter weather this week and into the weekend. I know these past few winters have been hot garbage out there and discussion has been minimal for there, but this may well be a really good pattern there. I think the cold presses eastward over time, but west TN gets first dibs with this - I think. Reminds me of some of these patterns during the 70s. The temp gradient across TN next week may be something to behold.

I continue to lean towards the GFS in the medium and LR. The Euro does well once it gets past the time time frame where it plays in the West. All modeling lost last night's system for about 36 hours if I remember correctly. Just have to roll with pattern recognition. This "should" be a very wintery pattern if the cold presses east to the Apps. It makes sense for cold to bank up against the Plateau or the west slops of the Apps. That is kind of an old school pattern modeled on the GFS and CMC to some extent. Again, I think we see the first bout of winter in west TN and then the gradient pushes slowly eastward. Several systems likely ride this boundary. I could easily be wrong, but that is my current thinking. The 6z GFS is really a perfect run in terms of set-up.

Sleet and snow here.

For sure. Agree. It has been interesting to see multiple models produce crazy runs at various times. Wonder what it would have been like during those great winters of the past to see the pattern on computer models well in advance?

Welcome aboard...pretty average poster at best(and maybe a tad on the ugly side), but we will take you since you have more memory.

Worth noting that the 12z Candian ensemble has shown a noticeable uptick for the entire forum area regarding snow accumulations for the entire run. Not used to seeing it so robust. Some of you might be wondering about maps. It is not a tease. Been out of memory for about two years. Seriously been contemplating getting a new account here just so I can have more map space! LOL...kidding, not kidding. CG2 might be in my future.

Re: 12z Euro. Anyway, fairly substantial changes in temps beginning Wednesday and really deviates from its 0z run by Fri/Sat next week. Tells me the Euro "might" be playing catchup. The run-to-run temp changes (later in the run) over the East are more drastic than what I posted above. About it. Good luck to everyone tonight. Will give the ensemble a look later and see if the EPS has any changes for midweek.

The 12z Euro is nearly 30 degrees colder over middle TN next weekend.

Major change at 174 as the 12z Euro pushes the front through. Much colder run at this time frame.

Light mix is showing up next Saturday over the Plateau at 168.

The 12z Euro at 168 has rediscovered cold in the eastern Plains which was completely absent at 0z. I think it is still biased in holding this cold back...Who know, I learned long ago not to discount it.

The Euro at face value looks similar to 0z. However, it is finally correcting to placing more cold in the Plains. A step towards the GFS if you will.

Overall, the 12z Euro looks to hold the ZR over the Ohio River. BUT, the model has cooled considerably.

Overall, the 12z Euro has trended colder over the SE in general though AN temps certainly remain south of the TN border - they just are't as warm. So right now, the trend is towards the GFS in regards to temps. Not there yet and likely won't be this run, but a move in that direction. At 111, it is 5-10 degrees colder than 0z over middle and west TN.

On a very small scale(just looking at KY/TN, the Euro has trended further SE with its cold at 102. It isn't by much at this point, but may bake a difference down the line.

Can't see the surface yet, but the Euro is much colder at 82 re: run-to-run temp change. Edit: Think this is just a case of the Euro being overly warm and coming back to other modeling.

Out to 66, the 12z Euro is a tick faster with the front (maybe 30-40 miles faster).

@PowellVolz, definite uptick in overall precip amounts is driving the uptick in snow totals. No idea if that verifies, but noticeable change. I know you mentioned that earlier. Just following up regarding the 12z Euro op.

12z Euro is a definite uptick in snow accumulations

12z Euro is rolling. Will split my commentary between two threads...the storm thread for tonight's potential even and then back here for the overrunning event. Will be interesting if the Euro finally moves to the CMC/GFS combo. Wasn't there overnight...so really looking for trends - especially if it speeds up the front next week or has more cold behind it.

Ditto that.

That is awesome and thanks. What the GEFS depicts is a glacier being built over the MidWest. The highs migrate to that cold. What folks can't see on that depiction is that the southern branch keeps attacking the base of that high. It is non-stop on that run. I am out to 270 on precip type, and it is just crazy. Basically the -NAO pushes confluence and cold over this region.

@Holston_River_Rambler, do you have the ability to make a GIF of the MSLP(not the anomaly, just MSLP) of the 12z GEFS? There is a 1054 hp on the ensemble over front range in Canada! The GEFS is just one system after another attacking cold which slowly(and I mean slowly presses eastward). The MSLP map(I know gif speed is an issue), but I think it does a good job of depicting all of this. The US or NA view should do it...just whichever one has that big high sling SE. Thank in advance if you are able and understood if you are too busy.

Need a "wow" emoji. Not a "good wow", but just "wow." That is craziness. Might be the only time I am glad to be inside of the little white circle in NE TN. Quite literally, I would be the only place in TN without ice...ya'll come on over if it gets bad!!!!