Carvers Gap

Like clockwork, when we begin to see even one model exit the MJO 6/7 loop...seems like we see the front press on all models. I know I sound like a broken record, but this boundary "should" press eastward with each piece of energy. Have to think the Tuesday system is looking like a significant event, but I am going to remain guarded with that. Also, beware of systems that cut directly into big highs. They may attack them as the enter or exit the area, but if they are over the Lakes, easter Plains, or central Plains....that system is likely to be forced southeast.

Seeing ice storm warnings hoisted for eastern Arkansas and a good portion of KY beginning tonight. Edit: and NW TN.

In for later...

Yeah, the thread doesn't mean anyone likes it! Totally agree. However, if they are talking ice storm warnings...it is newsworthy and worth discussing IMO.

Been a while since we have seen a 384 mean for the entire sub-forum that looked like this.

Just looking at the ensembles....looks like an outside thread at a light mixed precip event Sunday, a bigger event around the 16th, and then the overrunning pattern just holds. We are going to have to work for it in eastern areas, but man....middle and west TN are looking good. Honestly, if the 12z EPS is correct in the depiction of the gradient....it is going to be a wild couple of weeks. And we haven't really pushed back the pattern. The boundary for the cold air has been moved, but the overrunning pattern is still appears legit.

This is the 12z EPS. This is the look that brings winter wx to the forum area.

You all feel free to fire-up a thread. Been a while since that area of the forum has had a thread for an event.

12z suite is loaded for bear....Looks like 3-4 windows for winter weather. Pretty much every system is going to have to be watched as each one has a winter component on the west and NW side.

Just looking at the CMC, GFS and Euro for 12z...looks like this sub-forum is going to be an active place. Though details are not nailed down...sure seems like the intersection of precip and cold is in this area. Right now, I favor middle and west areas first with the threat gradually pushing east. The 12z Euro IMHO would be a massive ice storm for pretty much everyone. I know it had rain in the East, but doubt that cold is going to get scoured that quickly with two highs sitting over the top.

Just now getting back in pocket. Couple of things: 1. Pattern looks REALLY good if you live in west and middle TN during the next 10 days. 2. The MJO for the EMON and EURO is a BIG improvement...let's hope we don't go with US modeling. If modeling trends towards the Euro, there are some big changes in store for modeling still yet to come.

Memphis is under a Winter Storm Watch as well as much of far western TN, SW KY, and eastern Arkansas.

Agree.

Don't we all! LOL.

A 1049 hp in the Plains is not going to play nicely.

Yeah, honestly...I don't want to have show-off my madly awesome urban survival skills. Besides, I have grown to really like electricity.

Yeah, these maps are going to look wonky as each storm leaves a stripe of snow, zr, sleet, and rain(maybe some thunder) along their paths. I did go back and double check my answer after shocker asked that.

That is a nasty look. Looks like the CMC and GFS are slightly eastward with the boundary than yesterday. Who knows if that is right? Maybe models are "feeling the cold" press now.

Both the 12z CMC and 12z GFS are back with the original idea of a multi-event overrunning event.. Each event presses the cold eastward towards the Apps. The SER will push it back...but that is when ice becomes a real risk. We all know that it is tough to scour cold out of these valleys without a real push of WAA timed just right.

I think it is two storms. Boundary gets pressed eastward with each storm. I "think".....

The threat for ice is growing unfortunately. I guess we could hope the front presses through and a Miller A forms and ejects all of the energy at once in one really big storm. Right now modeling seems quite content to stall the boundary at the Plateau or Apps and then send pieces of energy along that positively tilted broad trough. The problem right now is this is fresh cold which has a SER fighting it. The likelihood of the cold getting trapped at the surface as a wave rolls over the top is growing with each run. Miller A though is my answer to your question...just get all of that energy out in one swoop.

Basically, the NAO and Atlantic blocking as well as the AO will have to spend February fighting the MJO if this morning's plots are correct. This is going to be a SE ridge fighting a block for the next three weeks or so...and that might get pretty wild as wavelengths change. Getting a good look at that battle in modeling later this week. It is almost like a standing wave SER is locked against very cold air moving east past the Apps. Going to make it very difficult to find the boundary and then model the speed as the boundary gets pushed eastward once it hits the Plateau(if at all).

MJO looks like hot garbage this morning. Euro has the best solution which moves to COD and back towards 6. GFS stalls in 7. I am very suspicious of cold air that can hold on for very long given that set-up. It does look like the NAO is going to try to hold on despite a brief retrograde. The CHI maps still say phase1-2 of the MJO may occur....so I almost feel like the plot and the actual modeled look are a bit out of sync.

Morning disco out of Memphis... With the front stationary the situation doesn`t change much for Wednesday with the notable exception of the cold air behind the front. Light overrunning across this front could bring a wintry mix across mainly northern sections of the Mid-South Tuesday night through Thursday night. By Wednesday night into Thursday the stationary front becomes a cold front and starts pushing south through the area. The best chance for wintry precipitation appears to be Wednesday night into Thursday when a more significant upper level disturbance moves through the area. This could result in advisory level icing to NE AR, the MO Bootheel and portions of northern TN. There could be some freezing rain into the Memphis metro area by early Thursday. The problem is there is still some disagreement with the models. While the Euro is still warmer which means rain for Memphis the GFS is still colder and means ice for Memphis. The CMC is still siding with the GFS, just slightly warmer. Stuck to the middle ground here with this forecast. Further south in north MS we could see thunderstorms. There is elevated instability but at this time nothing severe is expected. Now by Thursday afternoon into the evening this front moves out of the area. By Friday we are expecting dry weather which should continue into Saturday. The bad news is because this was a cold front temperatures will be very cold. High temperatures during this timeframe will be into the 20s and 30s with low temperatures into upper teens to mid 20`s. With winds elevated wind chills will come into play with the possibility of single digit wind chills. Now for Sunday and Monday the next disturbance approaches the area. Cold temperatures will be in place and we could get another shot at wintry precipitation. It is too far out to pinpoint any exact details or impacts this might bring but it is worth the mention.

6z GEFS and 0z CMC are again showing a long term overrunning event. The 0z Euro is not. The temps on the 6z GFS for late next weekend for western TN are nearly 50 degrees BN(departures from normal) and around 10-17 below zero. Honestly, we probably need to be pulling for the Euro to be right...just compared to latest the GFS and CMC runs. The 6z GFS is brutally cold and the 0z CMC has an ice storm. With this set-up(as long as the severe cold is near us), there should be a period of significant winter weather in the Ohio Valley and/or middle/west forum areas...and then that boundary likely pushing eastward. I don't think that is set in stone, by IF the Euro comes on board....would make an already strong signal even stronger.