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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I can’t say that I like a 7-10 delay in a modeled wx pattern. One winter recently we waited all of Jan/Feb...for what turned out to be a cold front. The upcoming pattern change at mid latitudes is now set for the 16th. At one point it was the 11th. That said, there is decent model agreement this afternoon which is good. Is that consensus or just one common point on a grid as two ships pass in the night going opposite directions? We will know soon. I am optimistic but also a bit more cautious as the colder pattern has been sort of stuck around d10.
  2. Carvers Gap
    We are going to see a fairly epic model fail by either the GFS/GEFS or the CMC/GEPS/Euro/EPS in the medium and long range.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Captain didn't get back on the first goal, and his man scored as a result. Pretty much each USA goal was simply due to not marking their men. Plenty of chances for the US. Moment wasn't too big, but we need a finisher. Memphis......not just a city in TN.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies, if they are right, show Dec15-Jan5 as our best chance for winter. Is Cosgrove controlling the Euro Weeklies? -NAO retrogrades(?) to an EPO/PNA ridge. Eventually, the trough moves out West and doesn't budge. Looks like '89 without the cold temps from '89. It does have Christmas as cold. Nice pattern IF it will verify. One thing I hold onto is that -NAO patterns tend to resurface later in winter.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I don't think we will torch(till later in the winter). But it is definitely having trouble w/ the block IMHO. The Euro has this inside of d10 now, and it looks remarkably like what ensembles have had for a couple of weeks.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is what I think is a realistic pattern evolution for the next ten days given the block in place and potential for the Pacific to start lending a hand per John's post above. It is supported by the CMC and GEPS. For now....I am tossing all runs of the GFS (unless it verifies....LOL...but which run do we pick?).
  7. Carvers Gap
    I think a Euro/CMC blend is probably in order. The GFS is all over the place. I give it some credit as it was first to find that the pattern was not going to be favorable prior after the 15th, but man...I don't know if I have ever seen it this erratic. The Pacific is just not cooperating as well. The other explanation is that very cold air is about to enter the pattern in the d10-15. That could explain some things.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I saw that. I think that is good advice. I also think you are right that modeling was a bit too quick...
  9. Carvers Gap
    I am beginning to wonder if the GFS operational is even usable right now. It is either going to score a coup within its own suite(GEFS doesn't agree with it nor does any other global or ensemble that I can find), or it is an outlier which isn't really consistent. I may move forward with a Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS blend. Has the GFS been updated already?
  10. Carvers Gap
    One storm....just for kicks and giggles.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yes, yes it was!!!!!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Just for sharing and no comment on my part. Will these looks hold? I want to see a day or two more of consistency before getting too carried away on my part. The highlights of the 12z suite of global models... @*Flash* An old saying on AmWx(and its predecessor), when we are talking about the MJO the patten is usually not good. True point on your part.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro follows the CMC lead w/ potential for a wave riding the cold front in the day 9-10 range. Take w/ a huge grain, but the GFS sort of had it as well. With the potential for so much cold to be moving into the east, it makes sense for a wave to ride one or more of those cold fronts.
  14. Carvers Gap
    This is the third straight set of runs where winter weather and very cold temps are showing up on modeling.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The Canadian has snow falling w/ temps in the single digits on the Plateau.
  16. Carvers Gap
    As a matter of fact, there are multiple threats to follow.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a storm to track per the 12z CMC and GFS.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Digging through modeling this morning, there are some "much below normal" solutions showing up between Dec 15-20th across all global models. The 0z Euro control has this as does the 6zCFSv2(20-25 degree departures from normal over TN, and also the 0z GFS. The 0z GEPS is not warm either. I am NOT saying that is going to happen. However, many of us have seen the extreme blocking and have been curious as to why some colder solutions have not surfaced. Now let's see if we can get those inside of d10.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I hesitated to even look at modeling this morning after Friday night. Things look on track for the first cold front to arrive maybe a week from tomorrow.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I’d think the near record -NAO in combination with a terrible MJO(IO influence) is not something most modern models have ever had to contend with during a third year Niña. There might be 2-3 analogs at best.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS holds. I won't say, "Game on," but if I can see 3-4 more operational runs/ensembles....After some shaky overnight runs, much improved 12z suite. Will it hold?
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro follows suite (operationals finally showing what ensembles have shown). If the 12z EPS holds, this train may have somehow gotten back on the tracks.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Pretty interesting. So a standing wave (monster SER) has been a characteristic of recent GFS runs(not this one). The 12z has a system slide across the MidWest on the 12th, and it (and the subsequent system) just destroys the SER. Good call by @Daniel Booneabove. That is the golden ticket. If the SER establishes, we are pretty much screwed. The 12z GFS really shows the NAO block flex. I am not buying that run quite yet, but FINALLY the actual operational matches the previous ensembles.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Whoa. Mercy me, what a flip from the 12z GFS. Now, that is understandable at this range...but that is a nearly complete reversal from d8-16. If we get cold, send me a Christmas card for the from earlier this morning. LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    1. We definitely need help from the Pacific. There have been runs which show the EPO/PNA ridge building. For you all in middle and west TN, the western ridge is money. In E TN, the NAO or HB block (especially in conjunction w/ a falling QBO and weak Nino) is a better result. The EPO/PNA ridge during Ninas is often too far west(for E TN) which leaves E TN in the warm sector. So, kind of depends on where one lives. But for now, we definitely need help from the Pacific. We "should" catch some brief cycles into phases 7-8 and let that ridge out West build. A -PNA is not good for any of us east of the MS. 2. Again, watching the 12z GFS flip-flop yet again.....I am not sure modeling is handling the NAO block well. The 12z GFS has again flipped to a much colder run. 3. As for E TN winters, NE TN has not had great winters during the past several years, especially once December is over. Nina winters favor E TN during December and middle/western areas are favored as winter progresses into Jan/Feb. Middle and west TN have scored big due to the Nina pattern, even Knoxville. The eastern mountains and NE TN have drawn the short straw. That is cool though, the pendulum will swing back. This Nina cycle has been greatly needed in order to reset the gradient so that El Nino's actually have a normal effect.
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