Carvers Gap
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Nice PNA/EPO signature on the 12z EPS. It does create a chinook which scours a lot of the cold out of NA. Always something! As each trough pushes through the ridge reforms slightly west of its previous position. It may well be that a formidable EPO eventually builds and cold empties back into NA in a pinwheel fashion as cold wraps around the vortex over Greenland. Looks like a good pattern but a period of moderation over central and western Canada. Would be our luck to finally get a good pattern and the source region be less than optimal. The GEFS and GEPS look much better in terms of source regions. I suspect there would be enough cold given it is January and AN air masses to our north are still often BN if they can get here in decent shape.
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The 12z GEFS has similar look(to the GEPS) but further west. Both looks will work in the LR. Those looks, if we can get split flow, are excellent for winter in the east. Big red ball is in the right place for now. LOL. @Blue Moon, keep us updated on the severe!
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If you all want to see a MONSTER EPO/PNA, take a look at the GEPS at 12z in the LR. Wow. That'll do it.
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12z GFS and CMC and their ensembles continue to look good. Looks like several opportunities are on the table. The ensembles are quite cold.
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Was just digging back through the December thread, pretty amazing to see modeling pinpoint this upcoming timeframe for both cold and rain. @Holston_River_Rambler, the EPS may have hit this rain at max range. If the cold arrives on Sunday/Monday, it was hit at max range as well by almost all globals. The CMC may have again shown its worth. Again, modeling has done really well this winter with the overall longwave pattern at 500. It wasn't so great during November, but has been decent since then. The Euro Weeklies may have had the Jan 3 shot around December 13th. I can remember when modeling had almost no skill past 7-8 days. Now, it is still pretty sketch after those timeframes, but decent work by those 0s and 1s.
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Finally starting to see Jan 3-10 timeframe come into focus just a little. Looks cold and stormy at times from the MS eastward. Just how far that come southward is up for grabs. With this setup, I tend to favor west and middle forum areas just a little bit more. In general, in the LR modeling has a similar look to the past few days. Just tough to tell if that is the look or if it is transitioning to another pattern altogether. Easy to look at a transitional pattern and think it is the next pattern. I am 50/50 that we are seeing a pattern transition to a more favorable Pacific with some sort of smorgasbord of a -WPO and and EPO ridge(potentially AK block)...OR just a relaxation of the current pattern(and then a return to an Aleutian high. What I am seeing this morning is a more traditional La Nina high off the West coast. That would allow the cold to push in waves. Very much agree with Flash that this looks a lot like last year. I definitely note that cold fronts are stalling just short of the Apps or at the Apps. The good thing this time....it is January and the cold is stronger. Great pattern discussion above. Of note, both the ECMWF and GEFS MJO plots depict a stalled MJO on the 7/8 border...hard not to like that. The actual MJO itself is almost in 8 today. There is a risk it could loop back to 6 in the very LR. But Daniel Boone made some great points about the water warming in the 7/8/1 regions and potentially allowing the MJO to move into those areas. Lots of uncertainty, but the fickle MJO looks decent today. Oddly, the GEFS has come around...While it is not to be trusted in MJO IMHO opinion, the model easily has the best look for winter and its LR is finally in sync with its actual MJO look. The ECMWF isn't too far from that look. I alway note that when discussion veers away from the MJO, it must be in decent territory or headed that way. When it is the main subject of discussion, our wx pattern is hot garbage. LOL.
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Bit of an uptick in the 18 GEFS snow totals. 3.4" or NE TN which is decent. 2" north of 40 for a good chunk of the state of TN....I mean it ain't zero. LOL.
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Welcome to the party happy hour of the GEFS. The 18z GEFs is now cold - very cold at times. It reflects a similar look now to the 12z EPS. Slightly displace westward -EPO. Y'all remember those GEPS runs from a few days ago at the surface? Like those in regards to temps. @John1122, looks like a more traditional placement of the eastern Pacific high during a La Nina don't you think? If it will not retrograde into the Aleutians.....
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Just gave a quick look at the teleconnections on the EPS: EPO: goes positive and descends to neutral (looks strongly negative on maps...might be a false reading or it is just slightly displaced westward) PNA: very negative and ascends to barely positive by the end of the run (a BIG reversal) NAO: negative and goes positive AO: negative and goes positive WPO: negative and slow ascending. First half of January is a month of transition. The NAO quite likely takes longer than modeled to flip - stubborn feature once in place. Wouldn't surprise me to see it return. Overall, looks like a PNA pattern at least temporarily.
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Biggest thing right now, and the GEFS has caved since yesterday at this time, is the elimination/severe weakening of the Aleutian high. How long it stays gone is anyone's guess. One step at a time right now. My guess(and it is a guess) is that we see the Pac drive the pattern through mid-Jan. Then, it is up for grabs.
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Biggest thing is we are seeing the pattern reshuffle. We can see the transition. We just can't really see past the transition period with any rigor at this point. I definitely see some good things and things which would bring back warmth after mid-Jan. I just don't know past mid-month. But the first half of the month should be seasonal to slightly BN after the 3rd which is indeed cold since it is January. Now, just have to wait for the details to come into focus. IMHO, the thing we really need is an active STJ with frequent systems undercutting the western ridge. The STJ is the key moving forward....otherwise, going to be dry during those cold snaps. I am 50/50 on whether it will bring enough precip to up our chances for winter wx.
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I am sure I do. I normally don't look at them. I usually just look at the various regions on the map and eyeball it. I only do this as a hobby, so eyeballing usually has to do. I will give it a look later this evening. Just spitballing, In the LR looks like EPO is good, PNA neutral, NAO strongly negative. AO was likely heading negative late in the run. Looked very similar to the 18z GFS, but not that extreme. If it is going to hold, we need the AK block or EPO from the 18z GFS to lock. John is on the money with that post he just posted. He is the guru when it comes to unspoiled local climate data and Pacific patterns - I know of none better. Truly, we want cold being directed into the area and just let the warm GOM waters do their trick. The cold is the match. Gotta have it.
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The GFS has been all over the place, and I mean all over the place. Just needed to say that before mentioning that the 18z GFS is an excellent winter pattern. And the pattern switch/relaxation has remained around Jan 3 for the past 10-12 days(noted that before). The real question is the duration of the pattern/relaxation which brings waves of cold every 2-4 days. Best guess is that we have a couple of weeks after Jan 3rd of cold/snow. That is the window at the moment. I think folks on this subforum have done a really good job of tracking that window. And let's be honest, that is about how long those windows last in this area, 1-2 weeks of cold at a time. Would not surprise me in the least to see Cosgrove's thaw after that...and then maybe another chance later in the season if we are fortunate per his forecast. I will also echo John's post about '84, the way these troughs are amplifying, an extreme shot of cold is on the table(single digits is extreme in my book). Just not comfortable in floating that timeframe quite yet.
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Pretty sure that we did have an SSW(not huge, but significant enough to perturb the 30mb and 50mb levels) back in mid-December if I remember correctly. SSWs don't have to result in the splitting of the PV in order to be a strat warm. One could make the case that the cold coming in early Jan is a direct result of that.
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Well, let's enjoy 2-3 cold shots to start January before we worry about an indefinite torch. We could end up wishing our lives away for the perfect pattern. Bottom line, winter is not over yet.
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18z GFS loses the first system, but "found" the second one on the 7th. It is within the realm of reason that the second front could be cold enough to allow for snow if the cold pushes enough. Modeling definitely favoring the middle and western parts of the forum areas. VERY similar to last winter in that the SER will fight east of the Plateau. Need the STJ to become more active. These fronts are so strong, they are suppressing everything, but when the rebound to warmth occurs, it is nearly equally strong.
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Pretty much the story for December.
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The big red ball(aka the AH) break it? LOL.
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I would add that the transition to that a transition to a new pattern is likely underway or at least a significant pattern disruption. Cold fronts will press eastward into anomalously warm air. That in turn will set the state for possibly two severe events, before cold begins to surge eastward. Looks like a 2-3 day warm-up after the first big front not he 3rd before the next from moves through. Again, I suspect the new pattern would be cold building in the West and pushing eastward. The 12z EPS would imply the cold dives into the Plains and spreads eastward which means less modified cold. Now, one caveat....the EPS rotates all of the cold eastward, completely emptying the Mountain West of its cold(remains seasonal though). While I do mention a pattern change/disruption, if that trough simply rotates through, we need the trough to reload and the western ridge to hold, or it may simply reload the old pattern. MJO will have a say in this.
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The 12z EPS is now, IMHO, advertising a pattern change. I have been holding off on that terminology for a bit. Indeed, it looks there will be a new pattern. The transition to that new pattern certainly looks like a dominant EPO/PNA ridge which is a reversal from where we are currently. Is the new pattern a zonal pattern where the trough moves eastward and pulls north? Sure. It the new pattern one where there is very cold air being dumped into the eastern US w/ the EPO/PNA pattern continuing? Sure. And it could be something entirely new. Won't rule out a head fake either. For now, pattern looks good. GEPS and EPS look quite similar. Did the GEFS stop reporting mid-run? My three sources have it paused.
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Really interesting Tweet. 12z GFS certainly reflected that. Watching the GEFS roll as we speak. Seems like modeling likes the AK block but flirts with re-establishing the Aleutian High. For at least a time, I think the AK looks likely. Great find. Thanks for the share.
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Been out enjoying the gorgeous weather before big changes next week. Actually was able to wear shorts and a t-shirt on my run today, a rarity during late December. So far, modeling looks pretty similar to overnight runs. Didn't have a lot to add this morning and don't have a lot to add right now. Cold shot set to arrive on Jan 3rd. Modeling has been remarkably consistent with this time frame for nearly 10-12 days. A ridge slides through after that. Modeling differs on when the next cold shot arrives, but likey the 7th through the 10th. Definitely can see winter on mid and long range modeling. That is a significant change from two weeks ago.
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In addition to the sever wx tomorrow and tomorrow night(I leave severe wx discussion to those folks as I don't track it much), we may get some of @Holston_River_Rambler's rainfall tomorrow. We need it. Just planted my garlic(late due to supply chain issues), so the water will be nice. Just hope we don't need a boat! TRI still on the lighter side of amounts as we have been for several months.
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If you need a snow fix this morning, here is a link to Star Valley Weather. Star Valley is in western WY. The writer of that blog is a veteran met who spent some time in Norman. I don't know him, but stumbled across this great site a few years ago. Just click the weather cameras tab. You will see cameras for many places in that region. Two weeks ago, the ground was brown there which is very unusual. https://www.starvalleyweather.com
