Carvers Gap

Bout time to start a new thread as Feb/March has pretty much run its course!

Looks like NW Kingsport received just over 5" of rain during the past 18 hours.

RE: First line that came through TRI this morning.... The hail photos out of Kingsport and JC are crazy. Today was our long run. Miles 1-4 were uneventful. We could hear the storm coming up behind us. Called my wife to get to our pick-up point early which is at mile 6.5. We hit mile 6.3(just .2 from the car) and had to stop under a bridge as the storm crossed the ridge and went bonkers. I wasn't sure we could get across the parking lot without getting hit by lightning. Temps began to drop quickly. They came over and picked us up. We all sat in the car as the storm roared through. We had nickel to quarter size hail. Picked up one dent - old van and not worried. Managed to get some video and photos near the last 1/3 of the storm. The Greenbelt was flooded within minutes in that section. @tnweathernut shared this with me...

Snow showers on April Fool's Day for NE TN, SW VA, and the higher elevations?

Some crazy snowfall pics from the record setting Rockies snowstorm this past weekend. If you get a chance, go on FB and look at Wyoming through the Lens. Crazy stuff. (May be two sites with the same name...)

What the EPS is advertising would be a chance at a significant late-season outbreak of cold straight off the pole d10-15. The is a crazy big PNA ridge - pretty much into the Arctic.

Crazy!!!! ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MST SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 24 inches possible. Accumulations up to 30 inches possible near Boulder and Fort Collins. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver, Denver, Castle Rock, and Greeley. * WHEN...From 5 AM MST Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Finish preparation for this storm by Friday. Conditions will likely deteriorate quickly Saturday as the storm arrives.

Going to be interesting to see this storm in the front range of the Rockies this weekend. Could be a record breaker.

That last saddle below Carvers is the place to be.

In a heartbeat. There is a beautiful valley just below that with an apple orchard. Lots of great homes there.

If I was moving to the area and location was not an issue....western NC on a northwest facing slope @Ji. As for everyone else. The 12z CMC spitting out single digits late in its run. Whew. Modeling starting to sniff out a trough amplification during the d10-15. Location TBD but likely east of the Rockies.

The MJO continues to advertise a cold shot of air mid-month or just after. Not saying snow or snow storm. I would think higher elevations are not done(maybe even folks along the KY/VA/TN/NC border. Ensembles are beginning to pick up on an eastern trough around mid-month which fits the MJO nicely. If this fits the pattern of cold shots that make it into the Lower 48, it may be abnormally cold. We will see. Enjoy this great weather!

12z Euro with some snow on the Plateau, especially the Smokies, and some light stuff in NE TN/SW VA with the system on the 3rd. Nothing huge...but not warm.

You can see the 18z GFS-para with a very good pass of a slp around the 6th. 1040 hp sitting just north of the GL. If that pulls north(and likely will as spring bowling balls are notorious for shifting north even at the last minute), that is not a terrible look. We really want stuff in Cuba at this time of year, and let it work back northward.

12z was flirting with something decent.

My hoop house is up and ready. That guaranteed what the MJO shows this AM which is a potentially high amplitude rotation through phase 1. Beginning to see some modeling "feel" the MJO now as SLP tracks are now south of our area. Have a feeling that much colder air will insert itself into the pattern. I really don't disagree with the March looks that are AN. But embedded in that pattern may be a cold and stormy 7-10 day time frame...been that way almost all winter.

The 12z CMC ensemble mean is flirting with a trough around the 13th. So, that is the first model to maybe show some hint of a response to the MJO. We will see if that occurs in reality, but worth watching in the LR>

LOL...I don't envy having to release a March forecast for a living. I think we could see AN temps for March, especially the first 10-12 days. This kind of has the feel of the cold spell earlier this month where it go pushed back a few days, and a few more...then just finally arrived. Guessing a 7-10 time frame of abnormally cold temps gets sandwiched in there at some point. I don't see that on modeling at some point, but the MJO in phase 1 would flip modeling in a hurry without a lot of warning.

US modeling has now moved decidedly towards the EURO model suites in regards to the MJO moving into phases which correlate to early spring cold. Makes me think cold, maybe significant, might be lurking right past what operational models can reach with their 16 day range. If real, we should begin to see LR modeling over the weekend produce some cold solutions periodically from run-to-run and then get more consistently so by mid-week next week.

Here is the MJO...that is not warm for weeks 3. We will see if this verifies as US modeling is not really in support of that look right now. If the Euro verifies, we are currently in a reloading of the pattern very similar to what happened in January, and honestly, not sure many actually want to hear that cold might return. LOL.

Fortunately stuff around TRI is still well behind the last 2-3 years. Weeklies still hinting that some troughing is going to show up in the East around mid-March. Looks like the March 3 window will be a an amplifying trough into the OH Valley and deepens as it swings east which means just backside cold. The EMON MJO (connected to the Euro Weeklies which as just released this evening) is adamant that we rotate into very cold phases around the 15th. That would be jarring given the warm temps we are experiencing right now. IF that pattern is correct, I would not rule out a snowfall which is well out of normal climo for us in the valley. Man, I kind of like the weather today...MJO is just nasty around mid-March in terms of prolonged cool weather.

Half tunnel for the garden is about to go up! @Stovepipe, when are you starting your tomato seeds?

Definitely seeing bowling ball season commencing. Just need to get one below us and time it with a trough.

Short term, yes. Been saying the last week of Feb through March 3rd was going to be warm. If the MJO rolls to 1-3, the SER will be squashed at some point after that time frame. Seeing that scenario on some LR modeling operationals. Nothing a given at this point. Real question is does the MJO loop back to 7 or turn to 1-2. SER for the next week for sure. Going to be a swampy mess. I am of the opinion this is the same reset pattern that we have seen already twice this winter. I could be wrong...won’t be the first and certainly won’t be the last.