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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Today's MJO from the CPC shows some modeling which takes it into phase 7 after a bout with phase 6. Let's see if we can take a run through the cold phases. If that MJO look is legit, modeling should begin to reflect that. Lots of plates to juggle right now in regards to getting something out there that makes sense regarding December/early January ideas.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I like analogs, but they are fickle companions. Lot of ground to cover before I would be willing to mail it in this winter(especially since it hasn't started). There is always the risk of non-winters. Generally, strong El Nino's and strong La Nina's are notorious for those. The late 90s were terrible with the exception of a couple of monster snows. Lots of variables still to sort out right now as I am not sure the base winter pattern has shown itself yet. There are always good and bad exceptions to the rule. It is a good sign that November will likely end-up BN. I have generally found that record setting cold shows-up IMBY during weak La Ninas. It is often followed by a break for spring or an extended thaw. Of note, the GFS(the model that was warm for so long) is spitting out some 1040+ highs in early December. The 18z run was extreme in terms of trough amplification - single digits and low teens showing up between Dec 5-7 and highs below freezing IMBY. I like the GFS when it begins to hint at those types of events. It is definitely not always right nor is the timing always exacting....but, it does sometimes sniff out those types of events. 12z Euro had it as well. I suspect we will see those features come and go on modeling. If the frequency increases on modeling, it will have my attention.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Welp, it looks like the Euro and GFS have sort of met in the middle. Interesting points....It is waaaay out there, but some hints at a major trough amplification over the east between d8-10. This time of year, trough amplifications have to be watched as the GOM could fuel sever and/or winter activity. Looks like modeling is beginning to converge on the time frame of Dec 10-20 as a time of warmth. This does not surprise me as much of November has been below normal, and we are due a break in the below normal pattern. Euro Weeklies, after the 20th go into a pattern where there are cold swings and warmth in equal doses. Again, would not surprise me to see some extreme temps in terms of cold this winter. Maybe the timeframe from Dec 20-Jan10 has some potential for that? But hey, let's not rule out the potential amplification in the 9-10 day timeframe. HUGE grains of salt!!!
  4. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS was super warm. We better hope the EPS hangs on!!!!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the great post! I think this winter will be potentially super similar to last winter. Base warm, but with some cold shots embedded - maybe severely cold at times due to the QBO flip from late summer. Right now, I am just super wary of model output. I think La Nina lends itself to cold which arrives abruptly and leaves abruptly. Total crapshoot on timing, but generally December has better odds. All of that is based on the ENSO state. Seems like the last few winters have had modeling show cold barreling into the East at d10-15 only to have favored areas in the northern Rockies get the lion's share. That may be what the EPS is indeed doing again. IDK. However, given that December "should" have some cold, have to think the actual solution is probably somewhere in between the Euro and American suites - warm interludes w/ AN heights with 3-4 day cold shots arriving regularly. In other words, the pattern is one where a southwest ridge pops and sends cold eastward. Once the trough in the east exits, the ridge rolls forward. So, maybe a blend of the two gets us to something which works? Best case is a full NA trough. Been a long time since we have seen that. Have a great Thanksgiving, man!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, late in the forecast time frame the MJO is shown on American modeling to swing into phase 7 which is cold for NDJ(source is CPC site). I read in the MA forum that DT had noticed the MJO beginning to move on the Australian site. So, I made a mental note to check the CPC site to see if there was similar movement. The GEFS for the past several runs is pulling the eastern ridge back into the southwest. The 5-day 500 anomaly (d10-15) on the 0z EPS stretches from Juneau to the west slopes of the Apps. That looks an awful lot like phase 7(even phase 8) of the NDJ MJO. GEPS has a different look. The GEFS is trending away from its solutions of the past several days. Just something to watch. Huge grains of salt as always.
  7. Carvers Gap
    GEFS at 6z has the stubborn ridge in the nation's mid-section. But we are again where the 6z GFS, 0z EPS, and 0z GEPS are showing a sharp cold shot during early December. Interestingly, the EPS/GEPS combo has almost all of the cold air in the northern hemisphere(in regards to departures) over North America. That may well be forcing the cold eastward regardless of the SER. Crazy look. Been a while since we have seen the major hemispheric cold pool on this side of the planet....no idea if that occurs. I can say this, if true, models likely don't have that ironed out yet.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles look quite a bit different this morning. Will take some time later and dig through them later. There is a full latitude trough showing up on the EPS now. The GEPS has flipped back to a good solution. Not sure I trust any solution at this point. Again, a lot of volatility in LR modeling. Just looking at this AM's suite, looks like something as moved the needle just a hair back into the cold camp to start December. Not sure what has changed, but they look a bit different than yesterday. The 6z GFS is not exactly warm, and even attempts to send a piece of the PV south late in fantasy land.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the update. Always great information.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think Nina climatology wins in this regard....there should be a substantial cold shot at some point during December, and then again during late January. Agree that winter will be likely be base warm. Aren't most of them? The real wild card here is that some second year La Nina's tend to turn cold and hold that look. So, I am really wary of what I am seeing on LR modeling. Could just be a warm winter upcoming. Could be models are wrong in the d10+ which we saw repeatedly last winter, sometimes to our benefit and sometimes not. The back half of winter, as Jeff notes, should be warm. However, it seems that analogs have been squirrelly of late. If in doubt though, roll with the ENSO state. I still think our chances for winter are on the front end of the season. That said, this is what makes following wx so much fun and frustrating - predictability is no a given! I am definitely willing to sacrifice a cold start for cold/winter around Christmas. MJO is locked in the same 4-5-6 rotation that it has been for several seasons....I think things will improve once this La Nina is over and maybe a chance for an improved SST gradient which has been lacking during the past decade or so. If December is warm in totality, I am not sold the rest of winter will be warm. It seems like there are some second year La Nina's which have a decidedly cold Jan/Feb cluster. Maybe @John1122 would care to comment on that?
  11. Carvers Gap
    Looks like TRI will likely finish BN for November. Right now we are at -2.1 and likely to strengthen that departure. Will have to go back and look at which models actually got that right... Strong amplification this week. Maybe some moderation next week, and then uncertainty persists. I would urge caution(on way or the other) when viewing LR model output during November as verbatim. Right now, I think Cosgrove is on to something with his most recent FB thoughts. Basically, he says a warm start to December(2-3 weeks at least), but with the stage being set for a typical and possibly severe cold outbreak to end the month. I am leaning in that direction, but not quite there yet. Lots of understandable volatility in modeling right now. The GEFS in particular seems a bit blind to trough amplification in the East. Something to watch if it consistently misses those.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Very persistent and somewhat conflicting features still showing in the LR....BN heights over Alaska and the SE/EC of the US. If taken verbatim, Alaskan cold would periodically break loose and head southeast under the persistent AN heights over Greenland, Davis Straits, or Hudson Bay. Warmer air would intrude between cold shots. Whether this can persist is another question altogether. I tend to think an Alaska vortex wins most of the time. However, we have discussed this on here many times...during the 70s and really early/mid 80s a cold Alaska was a good thing here. At some point, it was heading southeast. Was just a matter of time. That has not been the case during the past couple of decades in general. Right now the EPS, has handled the LR better IMHO. GEFS is playing catch-up as evidenced by the cold coming this week.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Some fairly massive differences this morning in the overall North American pattern between the EPS/GEPS and GEFS. EPS/GEPS is a strong, early season shot of repetitive cold while the GEFS is a trough out West. This has been a persistent difference for a couple of days. I don't discount either camp on this. I see sound reasoning for both portrayals. Something to watch. Weeklies looked a little bit more back and forth to me vs a December cancel. Always a fight to get it to snow early IMBY, though recent years have bucked that trend. More of a shift from a net cold(with warm intrusions) to a net warm(cold intrusions) look to me.
  14. Carvers Gap
    EPS and GEPS double down on a continuation of BN heights in the d10-15. GEFS now "toying" with the idea. Modeling is now beginning to show ridging along the western coast of North America. What we don't want to see is a strong ridge in the Aleutians IMHO. Not seeing that consistently, but it has shown up on a few operational models. I think the amplification next week is now highly likely. Could be 1-2 shots of winter like air masses. After that, that is the question mark. The MJO certainly seems to be an opposite signal of what the EPS is signaling. Though, as noted above, the EMON did show it moving out of warmer territory. IMHO, the MJO becomes really important as we get deeper into December. IO definitely has people skittish right now - as it should.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The EMON(EMOM?), swings the MJO to colder phases late though. The EPS/GEPS are just about opposite with 500 heights after d10 when compared to the GEFS. Was kicking around with @tnweathernut on a sidebar if maybe the GEFS handles the IO a bit better? I probably lean towards the EPS, but that model has flat burned me in November in the past!!! Will be fun to watch.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Holston makes some great points.... The EPS has been adamant about the -NAO for some time. The 6z GFS oddly seems to match the EPS more than the GEFS in regards to the NAO look. Interestingly, the EPS appears to be about to score the coup regarding the early season -NAO. I didn't believe it a few weeks ago, but that feature is now only about five days out on modeling. I tend to lean EPS on this since it identified the NAO potential. I think the GEFS is playing catch-up. But again, we all know how tough it is for models to identify NAOs in advance - VERY difficult for them. Last winter the NAO remained in place despite a terrible Pacific set-up. All of that said, the LR looks blocky. IF the NAO develops, always good to remember that modeling has a real problem with breaking it down too quickly. Anyone have the MJO forecast for later this month?
  17. Carvers Gap
    1989 is the benchmark of winter leaving in December and never coming back. Hopefully, we don't relive that. That said, it will make those afternoon jogs much more tolerable. Welcome to La Nina. As tnweathernut notes, at this latitude we are just looking for windows when it can snow. Of note, the Pacific will be in much better shape after the La Nina, but that won't help us this season. Right now, it is the Indian Ocean which is actually wrecking havoc as the MJO gets stuck in warm phases due to the energy it is producing. Also, we need a sharp gradient between pools of warm/cold water in the Pac which has been lacking for the past several years - that is not my concept but someone from another forums. Of note, the QBO is strongly negative. My initial forecast in June was for a front loaded winter in December. Did I get lucky? Time will tell. My seasonal forecasts are based on recent temp trends and almost completely on the ENSO state. That said, I didn't factor the QBO during June as it suddenly and unexpectedly flipped negative during early fall. Second year La Ninas are tricky business. As John notes, they are often weaker than year one. Weak La Ninas have a tendency to produce a period of severe cold in somewhere in our forum region. And sometimes, second year La Ninas do bring winter back for a second round - assuming there is a round one. The great and worst thing about winter...there are nearly always twists which nobody saw coming. If I had to pick one ENSO state which can deliver prolonged cold/snow, it is a weak La Nina. That doesn't mean it always delivers, but that SST state can make for wild winters swings.
  18. Carvers Gap
    This -NAO shown on the EPS(for the past several days) could be a tough feature to move if it actually forms at that intensity. Something to watch. Models may be playing a bit of catch-up in the LR. Greenland blocks are notoriously stubborn features and models are often erroneous in breaking them down too quickly.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, in NE TN at lower elevations we have had multiple early season snows during the past decade. I actually consider early season snows bad for winter. Seems like what is required for early season snows is a very active, late hurricane season and early season cold. That combo has a tendency to cause problems with the winter pattern IMHO. So, I am perfectly happen with no early season snows. Modeling has had conflicting teleconnections for weeks. I think that is partly due to it being shoulder season. Things are in transition, and signals are often in conflict with each other. As noted earlier in the thread, modeling for a couple of years has had a bad bias between d10-16 of portraying cold shots into the EC, only to have them verify more westward. I do think we are on track for an early start to winter. My biggest question is once the inevitable thaw hits during late December, does it come back? Some Nina years this happens, and for some it leaves and is gone. Time will tell. Again, HUGE grains of salt as mentioned earlier...
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, that is a monster block over Greenland showing up on both the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS for the end of November - monster. Euro Weeklies have it as well. Weeklies are back to a cold look until late December when winter shifts back out West. Huge grains of salt, folks. I do think the blocking signal has merit. The Euro picked up on this last week. It has been really windy during the past week. I usually notice this during the fall when their are nearly opposite air masses near each other - Captain Obvious I know. That said, this means that we are not likely going to be in a zonal patter for long periods of time. If we want cold, we don't want universally meh air masses UMAM. My term.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Just got back from Indianapolis, Indiana. As we left this morning, and much to our surprise, it started to snow like crazy. The band has been up there since Wednesday competing in Grand Nationals(National Championship). It is like one giant playoff - prelims, then semifinals, then finals. They start with roughly 100 bands and then get down to 12 finalists by Saturday night. Divisional national champions are determined in semifinals. They won the national title for the 3A division. Then, they have finals where they take the top scorers (from all divisions) regardless of division, lump them into one competition, and then determine a Grand Nationals champion. They finished 8th in the nation in finals. It was a great experience for all involved. The entire competition is done at Lucas Oil Stadium. Lots of hard work paid off for those kiddos. Marching competitions are awesome to watch.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Leaning towards an ensemble head fake this AM regarding the return to cold after this weekend's amplification. Lots of modeling(too lazy to name them all) are beginning to show BN heights over Alaska with fading BN heights here. BN heights over Alaska generally teleconnect to a warm SE. The Euro Weeklies eventually re-drop the hammer during December in regards to cold here. Message today....cold this weekend, more moderation than was shown last week both in terms of warmer temps and duration, and still cold for the middle part of December. Again, this is shoulder season so things will be all over the place. Jeff's comments above pretty much explain what is driving the change. The IO has been an absolute thorn for several years...I don't see this winter being any different. Huge grains of salt though. Models probably are not done bouncing around. November can be an incredibly difficult month to model as cold/warm pools(new cold pools/diminishing warmth) are moving thousands of miles from their summer latitudinal norms. Wavelengths are changing. This is dice stuff. At least this time, we kind of know that really cold looks past d8 often verify -----but just not in the place where originally modeled.
  23. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I have no idea what a cold look Fountain is(maybe spellcheck derived it from "forecast"???)....Probably should have said that is a cold portrayal by that model since model output is technically not a forecast.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Way, way out there but the 12z Euro ensembles show a very cold pattern at 500. Source region might be lacking at first, but if that holds....it could tap some really cold air from over the top. We have seen this several times during the past few years as a head fake, so I am holding my fire. However, I like what I see from this far out. That is a cold look Fountain!
  25. Carvers Gap
    After accumulating snows on Mt LeConte yesterday, the lower elevations in Kingsport are dealing with heavy fog and our first killing freeze. Visibility this morning was maybe 100' in spots downtown. Needless to say, frost on the ridge lines above the river is heavy!
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