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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Holston makes some great points.... The EPS has been adamant about the -NAO for some time. The 6z GFS oddly seems to match the EPS more than the GEFS in regards to the NAO look. Interestingly, the EPS appears to be about to score the coup regarding the early season -NAO. I didn't believe it a few weeks ago, but that feature is now only about five days out on modeling. I tend to lean EPS on this since it identified the NAO potential. I think the GEFS is playing catch-up. But again, we all know how tough it is for models to identify NAOs in advance - VERY difficult for them. Last winter the NAO remained in place despite a terrible Pacific set-up. All of that said, the LR looks blocky. IF the NAO develops, always good to remember that modeling has a real problem with breaking it down too quickly. Anyone have the MJO forecast for later this month?
  2. Carvers Gap
    1989 is the benchmark of winter leaving in December and never coming back. Hopefully, we don't relive that. That said, it will make those afternoon jogs much more tolerable. Welcome to La Nina. As tnweathernut notes, at this latitude we are just looking for windows when it can snow. Of note, the Pacific will be in much better shape after the La Nina, but that won't help us this season. Right now, it is the Indian Ocean which is actually wrecking havoc as the MJO gets stuck in warm phases due to the energy it is producing. Also, we need a sharp gradient between pools of warm/cold water in the Pac which has been lacking for the past several years - that is not my concept but someone from another forums. Of note, the QBO is strongly negative. My initial forecast in June was for a front loaded winter in December. Did I get lucky? Time will tell. My seasonal forecasts are based on recent temp trends and almost completely on the ENSO state. That said, I didn't factor the QBO during June as it suddenly and unexpectedly flipped negative during early fall. Second year La Ninas are tricky business. As John notes, they are often weaker than year one. Weak La Ninas have a tendency to produce a period of severe cold in somewhere in our forum region. And sometimes, second year La Ninas do bring winter back for a second round - assuming there is a round one. The great and worst thing about winter...there are nearly always twists which nobody saw coming. If I had to pick one ENSO state which can deliver prolonged cold/snow, it is a weak La Nina. That doesn't mean it always delivers, but that SST state can make for wild winters swings.
  3. Carvers Gap
    This -NAO shown on the EPS(for the past several days) could be a tough feature to move if it actually forms at that intensity. Something to watch. Models may be playing a bit of catch-up in the LR. Greenland blocks are notoriously stubborn features and models are often erroneous in breaking them down too quickly.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, in NE TN at lower elevations we have had multiple early season snows during the past decade. I actually consider early season snows bad for winter. Seems like what is required for early season snows is a very active, late hurricane season and early season cold. That combo has a tendency to cause problems with the winter pattern IMHO. So, I am perfectly happen with no early season snows. Modeling has had conflicting teleconnections for weeks. I think that is partly due to it being shoulder season. Things are in transition, and signals are often in conflict with each other. As noted earlier in the thread, modeling for a couple of years has had a bad bias between d10-16 of portraying cold shots into the EC, only to have them verify more westward. I do think we are on track for an early start to winter. My biggest question is once the inevitable thaw hits during late December, does it come back? Some Nina years this happens, and for some it leaves and is gone. Time will tell. Again, HUGE grains of salt as mentioned earlier...
  5. Carvers Gap
    Man, that is a monster block over Greenland showing up on both the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS for the end of November - monster. Euro Weeklies have it as well. Weeklies are back to a cold look until late December when winter shifts back out West. Huge grains of salt, folks. I do think the blocking signal has merit. The Euro picked up on this last week. It has been really windy during the past week. I usually notice this during the fall when their are nearly opposite air masses near each other - Captain Obvious I know. That said, this means that we are not likely going to be in a zonal patter for long periods of time. If we want cold, we don't want universally meh air masses UMAM. My term.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Just got back from Indianapolis, Indiana. As we left this morning, and much to our surprise, it started to snow like crazy. The band has been up there since Wednesday competing in Grand Nationals(National Championship). It is like one giant playoff - prelims, then semifinals, then finals. They start with roughly 100 bands and then get down to 12 finalists by Saturday night. Divisional national champions are determined in semifinals. They won the national title for the 3A division. Then, they have finals where they take the top scorers (from all divisions) regardless of division, lump them into one competition, and then determine a Grand Nationals champion. They finished 8th in the nation in finals. It was a great experience for all involved. The entire competition is done at Lucas Oil Stadium. Lots of hard work paid off for those kiddos. Marching competitions are awesome to watch.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Leaning towards an ensemble head fake this AM regarding the return to cold after this weekend's amplification. Lots of modeling(too lazy to name them all) are beginning to show BN heights over Alaska with fading BN heights here. BN heights over Alaska generally teleconnect to a warm SE. The Euro Weeklies eventually re-drop the hammer during December in regards to cold here. Message today....cold this weekend, more moderation than was shown last week both in terms of warmer temps and duration, and still cold for the middle part of December. Again, this is shoulder season so things will be all over the place. Jeff's comments above pretty much explain what is driving the change. The IO has been an absolute thorn for several years...I don't see this winter being any different. Huge grains of salt though. Models probably are not done bouncing around. November can be an incredibly difficult month to model as cold/warm pools(new cold pools/diminishing warmth) are moving thousands of miles from their summer latitudinal norms. Wavelengths are changing. This is dice stuff. At least this time, we kind of know that really cold looks past d8 often verify -----but just not in the place where originally modeled.
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I have no idea what a cold look Fountain is(maybe spellcheck derived it from "forecast"???)....Probably should have said that is a cold portrayal by that model since model output is technically not a forecast.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Way, way out there but the 12z Euro ensembles show a very cold pattern at 500. Source region might be lacking at first, but if that holds....it could tap some really cold air from over the top. We have seen this several times during the past few years as a head fake, so I am holding my fire. However, I like what I see from this far out. That is a cold look Fountain!
  10. Carvers Gap
    After accumulating snows on Mt LeConte yesterday, the lower elevations in Kingsport are dealing with heavy fog and our first killing freeze. Visibility this morning was maybe 100' in spots downtown. Needless to say, frost on the ridge lines above the river is heavy!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Seeing some photos of snow above 5,000'. Looks awesome. If one of you all Twitters, put a few posts in here!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Man, it feels like winter out there. And the ensembles do not look warm after d10. Monster ridge going up right along the West Coast. Give it a few more runs, and I might be read to say that winter is about to begin north of I40 during the second half of November. Now, that doesn't mean snow necessarily, but it does mean we are about to flip cold. @Blue Moon, were you in this area for a time?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Maybe first high elevation snows next weekend? Euro looked robust for the northern Plateau and Smokies. Interesting track with marginally cold air in place or sliding in as precip arrives/departs(we know the drill).
  14. Carvers Gap
    Aaaaand, the Euro Weeklies have flipped back to a cooler November just like that. Shoulder season is a bear for models which attempt to portray patterns after the normal 16 day look. Looks a bit blocky which might also be contributing. Almost seemed like the last run had a similar start to the pattern, but broke it down too quickly. Again, I would not be surprised to see the cold dump into the West and work eastward(that is much more likely in Jan and Feb). It is decidedly colder at the surface which is unusual as it has an AN bias after week 3. The other thing is that it was derived from a pretty cold run yesterday morning which does impact the full run.
  15. Carvers Gap
    East Coast. Still looks like a major trough amplification for early November, but then reverts to a trough out West. Now, one word of caution is that the Euro Weeklies REALLY struggle during shoulder season. They can do quite well with individual events like next weekends EC trough, but they can miss the overall pattern at times. I was just saying that it does not shock me to see the weeklies flip back to an western trough. There has been a real bias of late where it places a trough over the eastern part of the US - only to have it dump the cold out West. Honestly, I would be fine with a cold shot in early November just to get some fall weather, and then have it warm-up for a couple of weeks. The best case scenario for a cold December is a late November flip. But right now, huge grains of salt are called for when dealing with the weeklies.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies for November...yep. Looks like it pushes the potential for a better 500 pattern later into November. Been a huge bias for several years. At least this time we kind of knew the potential. The good thing would be that a later flip to a more seasonal pattern would mean that much of December would be included in that pattern if one holds to 4-6 week pattern cycles during winter.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Very persistent Hudson Bay block is also there. During winter that would be money if not too far south. Right now, seems to just be funneling north Pac air across the US and maybe tap Alaska from time to tome.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies are out. Still a fairly good signal for seasonal or slightly BN temps for the SE. @nrgjeff, most of the teleconnections look neutral after the next week or os. Best I can I can tell is many the -WPO is helping driving the pattern some in terms of teleconnections. I imagine the climatology for Nina is also driving the look in modeling.
  19. Carvers Gap
    A bit of a lazy comment upcoming....lots of modeling is foreshadowing cooler weather right at the end of this month and into an undetermined time frame during November. Source region is in question. However, pattern amplification into an EC trough is growing more likely as several models and their ensembles are supporting this pattern along with some Weeklies modeling - notably the Euro. See commentary above and someone go get Jeff out of banter! LOL. j/k. Nothing is a slam dunk at this range, and we all know modeling will often show an EC cold snap, and then it dumps into the West first. That has been a model bias during the past several years. Plenty of talk of an early strat warm event. John mentioned that in the winter thread I think. Some great discussion there.
  20. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS shows the potential for the late month pattern and early Nov pattern(though it doesn't quite get to Nov). Deep trough amplification and a phase along the eastern seaboard which(this far out) could be anywhere. I think the chances for a powerful coastal or inland runner are there.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Great post by John there. Going to post a couple of links for why we double dip with La Nina's and a graphic of how the second in the series is usually weaker. Also, great ENSO update today in regards to winter. Lots of great stuff in those links. Great disco past few days! https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/double-dipping-why-does-la-niña-often-occur-consecutive-winters https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-niña-here?fbclid=IwAR04Y3Kpyl8pTfS19Uy0XuBKxxPVPWLuQ9tlGV7VbBSvpTNijCerDvFLKEU
  22. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Posted something similar in the fall discussion thread on Monday. On second thought, banter was probably the better choice....but it was a slow day. Kind of unreal how nice the set-up for the time frame is! And yes, huge grain!!!
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think seasonal models have struggled of late due to analog packages not working. We have seen a lot of "opposites of what we would expect" during the last few years. I do think this La Nina may "reset" the Pacific basin for a time(future winters/not this one), and allow traditional analogs to have some merit again in the future. No idea if the GOA trough holds. It can be stubborn to move. Looks like it is on the GFS right now, but this is still mid-fall so no worries at this time of year. I am guessing that the Euro Weeklies may be favoring a moderate-ish La Nina - I haven't looked at its SSTs so just a guess. If so, that would explain the torch over the East for much of winter...but again, the last few winters have not not played nicely in regards to traditional wx patterns. I would suggest the IO and western Pac will still have a say here. If the MJO is the driver, La Nina may well make it tough for waves to propagate into phases 7, 8, and 1 - will depend on how far back the La Nina stretches to the West. And again, La Nina's behave differently over the forum area. Last year was a fantastic example. Memphis was downright frigid and snow. Never really made it to TRI after the Christmas week cold in December. Would not surprise me to see a similar pattern repeat.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies continue to strongly hint at an eastern trough amplification during early November(second week?). Would involve blocking in Greenland hooking in with a PNA ridge which creates a broad area of banana high pressure over NA. Honestly, that looks like a winter storm set-up for those a few degrees in latitude to our north and for our higher elevations. Would not surprise me to see an early season snow in those areas. Still likely a little too warm here due to climatology, but wouldn't be surprised to see some flakes in the air here.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Euro seasonals look rough. To echo Cosgrove, wx models really like a GOA low. That is no beuno for here. Biggest feature I am seeing is a ridge over the eastern US which persists as a dominant feature for the next 4-6 months. Very little encouraging in that run - like zip.
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