Carvers Gap

I like that timeframe from the 15th onward(not that the one right now isn't producing). But watching the 12z GFS roll, there is room there for an Arctic outbreak.

In the LR, thought this was interesting. Weeklies(non-bias corrected...bias corrected is still pretty good with background cold phases): Message is the next 3 weeks or so look good....then we will see. Phase 3 is warm for DJF. But when centered on DFM, it is widespread cold. I feel comfortable in saying that this not a pattern relaxation, but a pattern change. Now, that does not mean that we won't revert to this past December's pattern. That is certainly on the table once this runs its course. The SER will continue to fight. AN heights may still well center in the western half of the GOA at times(normal for La Nina as John reminds us). A three week shot of winter temps/wx is a pretty good look, especially if in January when climatology favors us.

So it snowed in Fort Walton Beach, FL? Wow. https://www.fox13news.com/weather/snow-falls-in-florida-panhandle-following-first-winter-storm-of-2022

Just looking at the Euro Weeklies and the 12z EPS(which has a very short warm-up after Jan 10...not even sure one would call that a legit warm-up), this current pattern(and this is a new pattern I think) will be potentially be sustained maybe through the end of January. The next 30 days feature below normal(temps) for the entire forum area according to the Euro Weeklies, roughly 1-3 degrees below normal. Mean ridge in the Southwest. PNA ridge first couple of weeks will retrograde into an EPO ridge through approximately the end of January. LR posts by me will be fewer in the coming days as we now have a cold pattern. Hopefully, we actually have short range stuff to discuss and track. Only fly in the ointment is a BN precip pattern over western forum areas. E TN is seasonal in terms of precip. It is by no means a perfect pattern. I would not be shocked by a severe Arctice outbreak should one of the systems really deepen.

Those are two pretty similar maps. Onset for western areas would be around 7:00AM and 4:00:PM Thursday for eastern areas.

Man, if it can get some juice to go with that system...might be all snow. CMC clown map for 12z. Apologies if it has already been posted.

If anyone has an accumulation map, please post it for the Euro. WxBell has been a bear to get to load for several days. Feels like I am on dial-up on that sight today. it is actually a good look for the accumulation map as well.

If we are recruiting a strong 3* (low 4*)QB will a high ceiling, the Euro run for Thursday and Friday is it.

It was just about there.

12z Euro looks really good for Thursday and Friday - really good.

12z CMC is a workable look north of I-40...Plateau westward.

Map is pretty much accurate. However, I don’t know many(if any) who received more that a dusting in most of Kingsport. Maybe someone got a 1” lollipop. Not a huge deal, but it is pretty much brown/green grass here. LOL! Not the end of the world. Super glad it worked out for everyone else. There have been many times when we score in Kingsport and very few others do. Just taking our turn this time! Plenty of winter left. Plus, I enjoy tracking winter weather about as much as the event itself. Still crazy to have a high of 77 on Saturday, only to have it snow 36 hours later. That makes this hobby fun. La Niña winters have been good to you, @AMZ8990!

Forgot about the convection piece. Good point.

With one winter storm in the books for many(not all) in the forum area, time to turn the focus to the next potential storm and next few windows of opportunity. The 6z Euro is a little further south with the TR/FRI system. Given that model run and the 0z CMC, to me that looks like a good opportunity for someone along a line from Memphis to Nashville and points northwestward to maybe score a light event. Maybe some wrap around snow for the rest of us. But until the GFS caves, probably need to keep an eye on it. That said, the GFS is more of a quick hitting, light event for a good portion of the forum area about 100 miles north of the TN border (and northward). The Euro is more of a NW TN and KY/TN border system(and point northward. To me I think the CMC and Euro seems to have the TR/FR system under control. The Euro trended slightly south at 6z, so the I-40 corridor and northward is in play...again, I tend to think the Euro is correct here. After that, looks like a brief warm-up from the 12th-15th. The current area of BN heights will lift out to our NE and an area of AN heights will push into the Plains(out of the Rockies) at that time. Then, almost all global ensembles retrograde the trough(which pushes into the western Atlantic) back into the East and eventually to the mid-section of NA. Another good window on LR modeling after the 15th. Whether the trough continues retrograde back into the West is open great debate. The 6z GFS shows the potential of the pattern after the 15th. Good storm track on both the 6z EPS and 12z GEFS if it verifies. The MJO is coupled well with what modeling is depicting now as it shows a loop into 7 or the COD. I would suspect it comes back to phase 8 at some point. Almost all modeling has been pretty lousy with the MJO plots of late. The Euro was erroneous in trying to keep the MJO out of 8. It was correct in dragging its feet. The GEFS was too aggressive at one point with moving it into 8. It was correct in eventually moving into 8, albeit it appears briefly. The Australian MJO yesterday looked reasonable, though it is certainly not infallible either.

Oak Ridge and Oliver Springs were slow to change over. Kingsport is another area with very little. We don’t shed many tears here. After four decades of living here, pretty much the norm. Though, the last few years we have done well. We were overdue. Will officially record a trace here. Normally with a low to our southeast, we score. Band just didn’t set up over Kingsport. Other areas of TRI did well - closer to the Apps one goes. Great storm to track though!

Had snow in west Kingsport for several hours. Just wasn’t snowing very hard. Have a minor dusting at my house on raised surfaces. That will be the final total. Congratulations to all who scored!!! What a crazy swing.

Mostly sleet. Some snow as it gets heavier. More frozen stuff during the past 15 minutes. Slower transition as we are just a little ahead of the main area of lift. Raised surfaces almost seem frozen now.

Oh yeah.

Seems like when those temps drop below 38, things start to change. Temps in Kingsport range from 36-37.5 right now.

12k 0z NAM is pretty big for TRI. Washington/Unicoi Co's looks like the bullseye.

Temps are crashing here. We have mostly rain, but can confirm that some sleet and snow is mixing in.

We are a wild bunch. 24 people logged into the sub-forum as we speak at 2:30AM to work a snowstorm. LOL. Awesome!!!

Thought you would be close. I can see 2,700' from my back window. Socked in....cloud deck is dropping. Just a matter of cold working into lower elevations now.

There we go. I have been using MyRadar. Seems to have better caught the changeover line. RadarScope is infinitely better. In this case, however, simplicity seems to be the trick.

Yeah, it's moving in to the communities just west of Knoxville. Clinton and Oak Ridge should begin to see a mix anytime.