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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I think our chances are waining...but no way modeling has this all nailed down. The front runner was much stronger on this run. As Tellico noted yesterday evening, I wouldn't be shocked that some sort of transfer of energy is occurring. The primary pushes into the Midwest while a secondary forms along the coast. I don't think this is sorted out yet.
  2. Carvers Gap
    At 120, a slp pressure develops in the upper Gulf states and then slides along the lee side of the Apps. That'll do the trick if real.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Don't look now but here comes another somewhat different look by the Euro.....stay tuned.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Muddled picture persists as most modeling now have a fairly decent front running slp. What needs to be watched is whether modeling beginning to strengthen the front runner. If that happens, all bets are off on the synoptics of this. I think a cutter is likely, but that front-running low(engine and caboose) pattern has wrecked havoc on model solutions in the past.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It likely would melt before the second system arrives. This is the front runner system. Again, I can't find it on any other modeling.
  6. Carvers Gap
    LR Update: Looks like we see a warm-up from Dec28-10th. The EPS led the way w/ this by sniffing out the Pacific flooding the continent w/ maritime air. We "may" still have a trough in the SE, but that is not for certain, and source regions are certainly suspect on modeling. Is this a pattern change or just a temporary relaxation? TBD. We need to see if the can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to cold. I "think" cold returns fairly quickly, but I could certainly see a scenario where cold returning taking a lot of patience. Normal temps get the job done here in January. Lots of fluidity in the pattern to start January.
  7. Carvers Gap
  8. Carvers Gap
    The CMC is showing ice on the 22nd for the eastern valley. I don't see that on other modeling, but something to watch. That set-up is one way to get it. When rain approaches from the SE, there is air pushed down the west slopes of the Apps(warming those slopes due to compressed air...downsloping), the cold gets pushed in the deepest parts of the TN valley and west slopes of the Plateau....and ZR. I don't think it is overly likely as the thermal profile on the CMC is colder. Time of day is important.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Perfect. The GFS is scoring decently at d7. It was terrible a few weeks ago, has now cleaned up its act.
  10. Carvers Gap
    My dad was hauling a load from St Louis and barely made it back to TRI. He called us and said he was running the leading edge of it. He pulled in the driveway, and the hammer dropped. Has to be that one. That is a great example of how this "could" work. The 18z is how I would have imagined that would look.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I am probably picking apart a single run a bit too much as we are still 5-6 days out. That said, you all can see that most of the lows are in line w/ the current track or eastward. Notice that cluster off the coast of Georgia? It looks to me like the trend would be eastward IF that run was correct......
  12. Carvers Gap
    Just settling in for a brief respite before heading back out....the 27th on the CMC/Euro is pretty close to another storm.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Last post for a bit. That was a hop, skip, and a jump from being a Miller A. It looks like the southern extent of the spine of the Apps split the slp. Some of it lifted into E TN. Some of it skirted into the Piedmont. I think modeling(ICON to some extent) is not handling the front runner slp well.
  14. Carvers Gap
    And whoever wanted the HOT! thread...you got it now.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Not sure if anyone has followed the run after the main event. There are several sneaky short waves which follow. Those won't be modeled well until 24-48 house prior to the event w/ short range modeling. With so much cold in place, those systems could easily drop 1-2" at a pop. This winter reminds me more and more of 10-11.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @Wurbus, there you go.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is plausible for sure. Also, the cold which will ensue after the precip on that run is gonna push -10F over northern parts of middle/west TN.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Just digging into that run....that is a pretty extreme run for this time of year. Something to watch, the GFS is sliding a slp up the coast ahead of the system. Does it eventually jump on that coastal? Maybe. I have seen that happen before. To backtrack from earlier, I give the GFS the edge right now as it seems to be handling the long range a hair better as well. The track is not a Miller A which is a win for the Euro, but the Euro looks far too tame considering the strength of the front.
  19. Carvers Gap
    More than a warm nose. The SLP tracks right through E TN. It did shift slightly eastward. Let's see what the trends hold. Still six days out. Lots of changes still to come I think. I wonder if modeling is about to "find" the storm again. We are about to exit the window where storms are lost.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I probably should clarify. The GFS is basically a toned down Euro track - that is the cave. I don't buy the lack of precip on the Euro. As John noted, if this becomes an extreme event...the GFS may actually take the lead at this point.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, time to wake this thread up! With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look. With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow. I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85. The cold basically just took over the front.
  22. Carvers Gap
    18z is a nice and classic La Nina/NAO run for middle and western forum areas.
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is now completely in the Euro camp(edit...eh sort of...clarifying comments in following posts), and a bit less amped. It should provide light snow to much of the forum area and really allows west TN and Arkansas and northern MS to score. I meant to add this for those who have just come back to the board. The GFS update which we speak about is not the one from last year-ish. It was tweeted this past fall again, and hasn't been the same since then.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Again, though. Without the -NAO...we may have seen a stretch of record highs. The Pacific is that bad.
  25. Carvers Gap
    One last note about the -NAO...a strong NAO in December is closely correlated to it returning mid and/or late winter. The CFSv2 shows a zonal pattern to end the month, and potential cold reload quickly thereafter.
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