Carvers Gap

Ensembles look decent after just a quick glance. The 12z EPS is a bit of a shift west very late in the run, and centered over the Davis Straits which is textbook.

Thought this was a cool animation embedded in a Tweet by Webber. Found this in the MA forum. Looks very familiar to current modeling. The have another good post about the disconnect between the strat and troposphere which you can go see for yourselves. I hate just to grab all of it without sending folks to see that great thread.

Pretty interesting to also see that feature on the 0z CMC. 6z GFS is too progressive as usual, but is close. CMC actually has a great track, but a weak precip shield in the NW quadrant.

Not much to add this AM. Was good to see the Euro Weeklies and now the CFSv2 with a similar look. CFS now has a reasonable progression of its MJO. It is now the GEFS which is leading the way towards phase 8. Right now I am going to break down the wx pattern into 10 day blocks: Dec20-31st: Certainly appears that we get a couple of cold shots with warmth in between those transient thoughts. Real question is whether the cold holds after Christmas. For now, I think it warms back up briefly. Jan1-10th: Looks cold. Could always be a mirage, but certainly seems like the pattern will evolve to a least a temporarily cold pattern. Fits climatology. Fits with teleconnections. Fits with the MJO look. Fits with HLB. Jan10-20: HUGE question mark for me. I can see where a cold pattern would lock-in or simply leave and never return. If one looks at the analogs...84-85 is still in the there. December '92 is in there. Both of those had memorable events. @John1122, any other big winters in that group of analogs.

The 18z GEFS has a really impressive -NAO. Ensembles are now picking up those trends which is great.

I feel like I need to dust off my Tolkein concordance.

Oh, I think we are moving forward(famous last words I know). Just think about where things were ten days ago. The Euro Weeklies are money...if they are to be believed. I think once the tropics settle down in the MJO region, we will see a true orbit through the MJO. The MJO is moving, but the OLR is a wreck right now from what I have heard. The OLR is in turn creating issues with the MJO plot. Once those invests are out of the MJO region, I suspect modeling will reflect a similar pattern evolution found on the 12z CFS and today's Euro Weeklies. In other words, the pattern transition to cold might begin in very early January vs December. Some will say that is pushing back the pattern, and it might be, but IMHO it more like correcting an error with the MJO plot. Good to see so much blocking on LR models. That is a BIG change for the positive. As Jeff notes, just have to let a lot of this sort itself out.

Can you produce a Weeklies 500 gif? Thanks, man!

Yeah, I didn't know what anomaly he was referring to....if he was talking about La Nina's producing cold or just February being cold or what. For the record, extreme cold(though rare at this latitude)...if it is going to happen a weak La Nina is great bet. 84-85 have been showing up in analog packages of late. 95-96 is also similar. The cold snap of 17-18 comes to mind as well. NOT saying that will happen this winter, but saying a weak La Nina is going to be wall-to-wall warm is shaky, shaky ground. It can happen as it did during the late 90s, but man, they can go super cold as well. It is just a pattern of extremes. A pattern such as this has produced some forgettable warmth and memorable cold. But if we want a shot at wild weather, this is the pattern.

And indeed the Euro Weeklies are latching onto a pronounced -NAO and high latitude blocking scheme during the second week of January. Looks like the CFSv2 but without the initial cold shot that the CFS has. Good call...you called your shot on that earlier this afternoon about those changing. Also, great post. Models struggle with blocking. And totally agree about winter really not even starting for us yet. And yes, if we are having the same conversation about four weeks from now...different story! But anyway, Weeklies are now on board for better or worse.

It is literally what folks have been saying on this subforum here for 2-3 months. Glad those two could join the party.

I have no idea what that last sentence means.

Euro does well, because it has a warm bias. It is almost always the last to effectively model cold. When the pattern is warm, it does well. Of late the Euro Weeklies just basically have been wash, rinse, repeat of whatever the first two weeks are. Been pretty much useless. They and the EPS have not had realistic modeling during the past couple of months IMO - just total repeats of the first few days of each run. GEFS has not been much better. The Euro right now is to warm what the CFS is to cold - biased. That said if one knows the bias, they can still work with it. Still a good model. I could be wrong, but I don’t think the Weeklies will change...but who knows. Euro is not good IMBY until about January. Shoulder season for the Euro is tough. I much prefer the GFS and CMC are much preferred as they can see cold. Now, by Jan the Euro is the boss.

The Euro/EPS completely and totally whiffed on the trough after the 20th. It was the last on board. It is always safe to bet warm in the south though.

We know.

The 12z CMC pattern looks really good and so does the Euro out to 180.

I believe the CFSv2 is off its rocker wrong regarding the MJO. Go look at it on the CPC site. You can tell it is not going to correct to its forecast. I was hoping it would be right, but its MJO plot looks way off. JB had a post this morning which basically(if I read this correctly) stated that the MJO is not in phase 7 as it is likely being moved erroneously to 7 by the tropical activity in that MJO region. The OLR maps are a mess due to the cloud cover from the tropical systems. It is why we see the MJO push into 7 and then abruptly retreats back on all modeling not named the CFS - meaning the tropical system leaves the region and it corrects back. Once that system exits, the MJO returns to its normal transit as OLR data will be accurate. It is likely going to get to 8, but it is falsely being pushed along by tropical activity which truly doesn't represent convection for the MJO. In other words, the MJO is not in phase 7. More likely the MJO is actually in phase 6(the surface wx over the US reflects that look), and it will crawl from 6 to 8. This is likely why are seeing modeling jump to cold solutions too quickly. Models are jumping the gun as the input due to the MJO error is causing havoc. They likely get to phase 8, but much slower than projected right now - more like early January. So my advice, proceed with caution as at some point it is going to leave phase 6. We may not get a ton of lead time. Positives this AM, blocking is showing up. Now, is that blocking a result of a flawed MJO number? No idea. If the two are connected, all LR modeling is off right now. It may well be that if the blocking is independent of the MJO, the Atlantic is about to co-drive the bus. If that is the case the CFS may be on to something. For me however, the wonky MJO it has produced this morning is evidence that the model is likely partially wrong. ALL OF THAT SAID, the CFSv2 did nail the trough after the 20th where other modeling did not. So for now, we cannot completely toss. If you are an MJO expert, please free to add or subtract from these comments......

Well, the CFS seems to like your area! Hang on tight if it is correct....

18z CFSv2 doubles down on the duration of cold. The control of that run is extreme with temps during the coldest week of January(second into third week) nearly 30F below normal over western parts of the forum area. I highly doubt that occurs, but yikes. That is pipe buster city right there. Generally, IF the MJO eventually rolls slowly through phase 8-1-2 during the coldest part of winter, that would be something to behold. I am way ahead of myself. Could easily go wrong. We have seen cold model runs revert to warm patterns in reality. So, huge grains of salt. I refuse to share a foxhole with the CFS.

If I had to rate my favorite weather patterns, a weak La Nina is at the top. A weak El Nino(w a proper Pacific SST gradient) would be a close second. Neither are slam dunks, but they work IMBY. We are adding a -QBO to the mix this year. We are also seeing teleconnections, with the exception of the AO which is hit or miss, heading to favorable territory on LR modeling. The MJO could certainly still balk, but for now, looks headed for 8 and couple that with a slow progression. There are some good signals there. A word of caution to all....the best signals in the world don't make a wx pattern happen. Some years have great signals and go to crap. Seems like a recent winter had beautiful teleconnections and LR modeling looked nearly perfect during December. Then the SSW came and screwed it all to ....well, you know, "Grandma Got Run Over by the Stratosphere." For now I like the climatology of the La Nina for some periods of severe to seasonal cold. And seasonal cold will get the job done during late December and early January. Flies in the ointment are of course the MJO regions which don't favor convection due to BN SST temps - that is a problem. The PDO is not in phase for a cold eastern seaboard - that is a problem. So, again, just blend it....and we get a our shot. Biggest concern I have is one that doesn't get a lot of pub. We aren't getting a lot of precip. Lack of precip IMO is the single greatest cause of BN snow. Gotta see that pick-up.

I haven't read the post. I may have misread that as well. So Grit is not saying orbit across the COD from 7 to 2...but to actually go through 7-8-1-2. I would tend to agree that is a strong possibility. Those invests are going to cause havoc, and could even skew the MJO reading. Just an in general observation not meant for D-Boone...The 18z GEFS again has a pretty strong signal for a -NAO. I know there is some discussion about west based or east based. Get those AN heights(even if not the core) in the Davis Straits and good things begin to happen. One word of caution to the masses, if the -EPO ridge gets super tall...the trough can still tuck west underneath it. I saw it occur for nearly two years straight recently. That tucking of the trough under the EPO ridge could also just be a common error. Lots to sort through and that is what makes this fun.

Ditto.

For sure. The current NAO depiction is slightly east of where we need it. However, if we get that block into Alaska proper(not the GOA which is prime real estate) which is being showing in modeling...that likely dumps cold into the West which spreads eastward as it moderates. Ideally, yes, we want the motherland to dump into the East, but that just doesn't seem to be case. Even with phase 8 of the MJO, cold dumps into the Plains and spread eastward. I doubt we see a perfect block as those are rare, but blocking itself will likely send plentiful cold into the Lower 48. I will take the Euro operational and run with it. It isn't perfect, but it would provide some chances. The SER is going to be with us this winter. When is it not? LOL. That is not a bad thing if we can get cold into the mix. No SER and we lack the ridging needed to get systems to turn north. As Boone noted, Canada is cold this year so at least the source region for cold shots is good. Saw Jeff's post. Yeah, just going to have to let things work themselves out for now.

The 12z GEFS, GEPS, Euro, and CFSv2 have great looks. The 12z GFS and EPS not as much. Now which of those models missed the potential trough amplification around the 21st and was the last to see it? Honestly, I would take the 12z Euro and run with it if that look at higher latitudes verifies. Sure, we would have some bouts of warm wx, but that is a given during any southern winter for the most part. But that potential block(if real) is going to push cold air east at times. Super similar look to last winter. There is A LOT going on right now in terms of variables being unknown or fluid...Again, the winter pattern has very likely not shown itself yet. I stand by this...base warm pattern with cold intrusions. If the CFS is right, I am wrong with that last sentence. Remember all of the ensembles that were wall-to-wall warmth just a week ago. Not so much now. In general at this point with lots of variables undecided: Blend model solutions and go straight down the middle. Why? The solution is usually(not always) found between two extremes. That leaves us with a blended solutions which is base warm but leaves room for cold intrusions and winter weather. I a definitely glad to see modeling take a step back from the wall-to-wall warm solutions from 7-10 days ago. Welcome to winter - southern style.

I think I have laid out my thoughts on this pretty clearly with my earlier post this morning. I don’t have anything to add at this point. Not that we have a choice in the matter, I do think the MJO is going to crawl this winter. If we indeed make it to phase 8, modeling will at some point move to that colder look. It is also important to remember that the Carolinas generally get much different results from La Niñas so that impacts perspectives. Have a good Sunday!