Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Trends over night are not the best. Need this to begin trending the other way. The 6z GEFS has a majority of its low placements moving into the TN River Valley. The 0z EPS now has a much bigger cluster of lows (1/3) making a significant move northward over Alabama. It had few, if any, at 12z yesterday. Unless something changes drastically, I think we will see some sort of significant energy hand-off to the coast. Just how much energy makes it into the TN Valley is open for debate. For those in the eastern valley, we need that slp further south. I have watched a lot of these hand-off type systems, often seems like they come further north than modeled in the eastern valley. Maybe the recon plane will help models get some clarification. For now, 2/3 of the global ensembles are generally depicting an elevation dependent event.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
66-46 and shot 44% from the free throw line!!! LOL. -
18z EPS looks good in terms of slp locations. Oddly, it is the 12z GEPS(Canadian) which has several members cutting west of the Apps and then handing off.
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The thing about operationals right now...they will likely be catching trends before the ensembles. The operational GFS caught the northwest jog on last weeks second system(edit) before all other modeling. It just over-did precip.
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Looks like the main system slowed down, allowed for more spacing between it and the Thursday night deal(which becomes the 50/50), and ultimately that spacing allowed it to come north/cut. That 50/50 is needed to prevent the cut. The spacing ultimately allowed it to move a hair north. Ultimately on that run it models a crap ton of snow on folks to our east who canceled winter about a month ago. LOL. It doesn't really affect the coastal low as the energy is going to form in the Panhandle it appears. But when it cuts into the forum area, it just washes out thermal gradients. I suspect we are highly likely going to deal with a handoff. Of note, the GFS has been entirely too wound-up with the last two systems. So, let's see where other modeling goes with this. I mean, this storm may end up in Ohio before this is said and done (with those big moves today). Lowering expectations on my part quickly!
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That is a non-starter for our area. Handoff leaves thermals washed out. On to the next run.
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Hybrid Miller B incoming. Low cut into TN and will hand off to the GOM at 111.
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Lots of rain on the front end this run. We really need the north trend to hold up, but I think it is going to continue with this for a few runs. Likely going to cause a hand-off issue(future runs) if the trend continues.
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This run is a bit warmer through 90. Tells me it is digging and is further north.
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Track should be about 20-30 miles further north by 84. That will likely allow a bit more of the warm nose downstream. Still could change even on this run.
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Slowed down a hair at 78 I think. Might allow for more spacing with the first system. Might allow it to track a bit further north without the 50/50 to hold it in place. As Holston notes, looks super similar.
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Slightly less digging at 66 and a split hair faster. Would imply maybe a less amped solution downstream, but not by much.
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That is what I like to call the "school car line" snow - meaning from forty miles away I can see Roan Mtn and snow from the school car line. LOL.
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Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny.
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What was on all three global ensembles is a major winter storm. No idea if that holds or if it trends west more, but that is a big storm.
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Clown map. With the storm trending strong, would very much suspect the west side of the Apps would get much more. Honestly, the hourly precip type maps look great.
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Here is a three slide sequence. 12z is on the left. 0z is on the right, hours 126-132-138. BIG move...
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That storm is 977 over Delmarva at 144. That is a big storm models are eyeing this weekend. Chances are, they are not done seeing how strong it is. Good to have the Euro just a hair to the east.
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Very sharp cutoff from 75/81 westward. As @TellicoWx notes, that is right where we want it. Room to move. That was a massive shift northwest.
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12z Euro is definitely northwest. Snow along the northern shield from Alabama, Georgia, and E TN. Chattanooga now officially has a storm to track.
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At 117, here she goes. Snow along the northern shield in MS, Alabama, Georgia, and southern TN.
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At 96 Pivotal has a low sitting over Mobile, Alabama.
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At 96, the trend to dig more to the west-southwest is evident.
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At 84, the Euro is indeed allowing the system to dig a bit more. Much more organized.
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Through 75, the Euro looks a lot like the GFS on the 500 sort maps. Much stronger than its last full run at 0z.
