Carvers Gap

The 0z GFS is rolling.

So right now, it is the RGEM/EPS/Euro/GEFS in one camp in terms of tracks. The GFS is another camp. The NAM is on its own. This will be a really good model test. Have the rolls reversed? IDK, but we are about to find out.... Been a while since we have seen the NAM at range out duel every other model.

The 0z RGEM looks nothing like the 0z NAM. More of a Miller A. It can amp some, but not like the NAM. Reasonable solution, if not maybe a hair east of where this track eventually ends up.

Just looking at the mslp low location, the NAM(18z and 0z) is dragging its heals when forming the coastal. No global ensemble has anything evolution that looks like that. Again, I strongly suspect it is too far west of sensible modeling. GFS/Euro blend looks wise to me. That doesn't mean downscoping won't exist east of 81/75. But if this turns out to be a Miller A, that NAM run is sheared out compared to what it will potentially become. I still think this becomes an inland runner. Energy handoff could be a problem, but for now I am only seeing the NAM with that issue. It may or may not appear on other modeling, but that is an outlier solution to this point.

Not John, but certainly plausible solution. As John notes, that very track can happen but is rare. Considering no other model has that solution (slp tracking the spine of the Apps), looks a bit amped to me. The real thing to nail down is the track. The NAM actually shifted the snow axis well eastward. It moved towards the Euro quite a bit, but quite a bit to go. My guess is a blend of the GFS and Euro would be a decent solution right now. Even if it put 4' of snow IMBY, I wouldn't trust the NAM at this range.

Agree. NAM has burned me too many times over the years at this range. That is 45-60 hours away on this run from precip onset IMBY. No way I trust it. As for the GFS, its ensemble is a perfect track. The amped models are producing amped solutions right now. No surprise there. Euro and EPS tracks are great. NAM/GFS are not for E TN. I am not seeing any other model send a low into the Apps. Until I see that, the NAM is an outlier solution. E TN has some battles to fight in order to get snow. Middle TN is looking good again. I believe the snow hole deal is over with or without this storm.

Didn't expect that, but it is what it is. I don't like losing a short range model, but it is still at range. Middle and west TN should still do well with that track.

18z NAM is north of its 12z run and the warm nose is howling. On to the next run. Always tough to know if the NAM is onto something or just amped. Would have like to have seen some consistency there. Looks a lot like the amped GFS runs.

18z NAM is definitie warmer through 48. Let's see where it goes from the Panhandle from 54. This is the NAM we know and love/hate.

It is amped for sure. Probably not as great an outcome on this run. It is the NAM at range, but it also hasn't dug as much, so it might not cut. Just need to rock that baby like a pendulum and let it scoot up the coast.

One of the cool things about the Euro run is that a little system drops in right behind it as it is departing. That is old school stuff that happened when I was younger. We would sometimes get big storms, but we would have light snow for ~12-24hrs after. EPS low locations. You can see the trends. New is left. I used 0z on the right to show how much it had changed. Looks like fewer slower solutions and definitely a trend to send fewer lows to the TN tri-state border with MS/AL. Still a few lows in e TN, but overall placement is along the coast. The quicker that inland slp gets going (meaning the further SE it pops), the more precip comes back this way. This is the EPS comparison of 12z and 6z....You can see the trend for great snowfall in middle TN. Very consistent look though. Just want to dial this in now. This is the GEFS slp placement comparison earlier in its run(than when compared to the Euro above). Notice the cluster of lows near the TN border is substantially smaller.

Roan Mtn might be a good spot as well. Those cabins in the state park are nice, and have wood stoves. Boone should be money.

Bama is not bad either when they have it going. They play long and are fast. I have to think the ACC and Big10 will have some teams that are really good by March. TxTech and Kansas can ball. TxTech plays great defense. I think we have Texas coming to Knoxville at some point. LSU looked incredible when we played them. They can put five guys on the court who all can legit score.

True. Was that you? If so, that is money. The slower version was allowing the storm to dig over LA/MS, and it pushed north. Faster version just rolls until it transfers to the FL Panhandle and the NE she goes.

@tnweathernut's rule of thumb. Set the bar low and you will not be disappointed. I almost always subscribe to this when it comes to snowstorms at this latitude. LOL.

Awesome, waltrip. I always enjoy your observations over there!!! Hope all is going well!

That is a Miller A.

Substantially colder run.

I could be wrong, but this looks like it is going to be a big run.

Of note, the Euro is slightly faster as well...not sure if that affects anything, but might mitigate the warm-nose if it is moving a bit quicker.

At 39, the Euro is colder.

Originally, the 13-15th looked a lot warmer from a distance on modeling. 50 is going to feel like a heat wave today. Morning lows have been rough. I use my own "hands are cold as crap while jogging" index. LOL. That index has been high. I couldn't feel the tips of my fingers after running yesterday - could barely use my iPhone to check distance LOL. As for Robert, are you talking about his post about Raleigh to CLT to ATL? I don't think I have seen the JB post about the 24th. I will say the jet configuration is there for an Arctic outbreak. No idea if that happens, but all it would take would be a deepening storm or just a strong front crashing through the Ohio Valley headed due south.

Yeah, thanks for the clarification. That makes sense. I know your definition of "region" is a bit different than mine. LOL.

Yes.