Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Yeah, it's moving in to the communities just west of Knoxville. Clinton and Oak Ridge should begin to see a mix anytime. -
Finally started raining steadily her. Wind is blowing. It may be raining, but it is cold out there. Any southwest Virginia folks seeing a changeover?
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Have spent a lot of time out West. Warm ground temps rarely stop heavy snowfall from accumulating.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We will simply say that we are ready for basketball and "curling." Curling is code for that which shall not be named unless the Storm Prediction Center decides to throw down the double dare, hatched heavy curling jinx. Then all responsibility is passed to that higher authority. -
What is crazy...nearly the exact same thing happened during 1984. Highs in the 70s on Jan 1 followed by snow 3 days later. Not sure that analog helps going forward, but just crazy how good it was for February and up to now.
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Within 24 hours, many areas have gone from all-time record highs to accumulating snows. No doubt, that is wild stuff. Some modeling nailed this time from 3+ weeks ago and the rainfall that came right prior to today. Truly amazing that computer modeling can do that now.
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When was that released, Tellico?
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Between three separate rain shadows, and downsloping winds...we know the drill in Kingsport. LOL. Not too mention we have easily the state's largest micro-heat island. Not so much a warm nose here as it is warm air that just won't scour out or that we make our own warm air. We also deal with downlsoping winds. Once that slp swings to our SE, the warm nose stops. What I saw with that 23z run of the HRRR was the slp was 1-2mb deeper over Upstate SC which has caused much more moisture to be on that model run. Last Christmas, took a while for the warm air to leave and for cold to flood-in from the Plateau. Our biggest advantage here is that we are have higher elevation than most cities....JC and Bristol are I think 100-200 feet higher than us. We will see...thermal profile will be threading the needle. Usually is.
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@Daniel Boone, that dead spot in the wx grid along the VA/TN border is driving me crazy. LOL. It is on every model, every run. Something is way, way off with that.
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23z HRRR looks much stronger than 22z. Changeover is quicker. Let's see where that goes.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountain model has verified yet again. This time amazingly so. Record highs yesterday in the middle and western areas of the region...snow today. I feel like I am seeing something from the Plains or northern Rockies with this turn around.
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That is a score, man!!!
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12z EPS update. Kind of a fun evolution of the next 15-16 days of weather. We get a strong cold shot next weekend. The PNA ridge pushes into the Plains(prob Chinook-eque). Then, the pattern retrogrades into a pretty nice pattern after that. Nice little window mid-month when the trough retrogrades westward. EPS is 24-36 hours slow that the GEFS/GEPS combo with the trough after the third trough(the one after next weekend). That is a great looking window. That WAR along with the WC ridge is a great snowstorm set-up. Again, cold shots with warm rushing-in as the cold leaves...wash, rinse, repeat.
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As we track the system this evening, I probably should add that both the 12z GEFS and GEPS looks pretty awesome in the long range. Going to be some swings, but they look good.
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So, are we talking 40 degree temperature swing in Nashville from this time yesterday?
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LOL. About 1,000 different ways for things to get sideways in the valley. Oddly, my fear with this would be downsloping which causes the column to warm just enough to slow the onset of the snow. The warm-nose itself is probably either a product of warm air pushing up the valley or warm air created by the downslope. I want to see a strong system coming by to our southeast. That will pull the cold in quickly. Good to see reports of early changeovers. May signal some strong dynamics.
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That is a win given it was like 95 yesterday!!!! Awesome to hear.
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Who is going to be the one to post the 18z snow total map for the entire run?
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Have a feeling we have to deal with some 4-6 at some point.
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Snow maps are similar, but appears that it backs more so. System is about 2-3mb deeper at hours 36 and 39. Just a hair northwest of its 12z run.
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We want the water in regions 8-1 to warm in order to allow for convection. That would do it. @Daniel Boone had a great post about it earlier.
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8 and 1 have had cooler SSTs this year due to the La Nina. The current slight warming at the surface may be helping things there progress, and provide almost a weak Nino signature. As those areas warm temporarily, the convection/rain can form there more easily. As @jaxjagmanpoints out in the ENSO thread, cold lurks right below it. If it upwells, the MJO hits the wall IMHO. Tough, tough forecast after mid-month. Our fate may rest in an accurate ocean current forecast and an accurate wind forecast which might cause the upwelling cold water in the west central Pacific. When we get a tropical system in those areas, everything goes haywire because they basically measure outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Colder temps are found in cloud tops. The OLR signatures for the MJO can get false readings which is why we had the GEFS likely get ahead of things in mid-Jan.
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Here is a rough map of the MJO regions...
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Man, the 18z GFS is a run...
