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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Jeff, weren't you one of they guys last winter who really looked at what was going on in the Indian Ocean in terms of convection. I know everyone is IOD crazy this year, but seems that was something that you used fairly effectively last winter before it was "cool." I would go look at previous posts, but am just too lazy. LOL. And yeah, the MJO is a mess in phase one for sure. The EPS last night had one foot in and one foot out in regards to whether it wanted to go with a ridge somewhere east of the Rockies. I agree that ridge wants to reform in the SE. I do think it will be strong at times, but with less staying power than this record death ridge. I think we will see some fronts beat it down. As you have noted, the SER will likely be something that is persistent. If we could get some stronger cold fronts during winter that push that SER down, that could allow for some storms to ride that boundary at times. Maybe we become the new mid-South w/ big snows on marginal temps. Biggest thing that we need now is some consistent rain which also looks iffy. I am putting my chips on changing wavelengths as fall progressed which will make it difficult for anything to lock in - more progressive than locked-in.
  2. Carvers Gap
    No idea. Matches the AMO cycle nearly perfectly though. Still have a few years to go before it flips "I think." Interestingly the month of March has had several BN months during the past several years, including this one at TRI. Seems like September is now more of a continuation of summer and that March is more of an extension of February - D'Aleo had a discussion about that last weekI think. Fairly interesting. Plus there is cold in NA...it is just not here. 40" of snow in western Montana over the weekend. I will say that weekend snowstorms are an interesting phenomenon as well...so many occur on the weekend. I am using the observation thread to document wx events up here as well. MRX data is such a mess, I can barely use it - especially when it comes to data about historic snow totals. Hopefully, we can all refer back to threads like these and see what the weather actually was...Even though John is probably 100 miles away as a crow flies from my house, I still like his personal records as I trust those more. It will be interesting to see what happens when this pattern flips....even if the balancing of the temperature scale is tilted slightly towards warmer, the flip of this pattern could be fairly chilly in terms of balancing things out.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, weird heat wave for sure. This is likely a once in 100 year event. Very rare. I think the colder temps near South America are really influencing the pattern here. When those showed up, it got exceptionally hot. I also think that kink in the jet stream over the NW(seems perpetual) is forcing a SE ridge that wouldn't otherwise be there in that extreme. That said, I do think the same drivers that are forcing extreme heat(-NAO right now included) will bring a different result as the seasons change. The weak Nino looks like a very Modoki look to me. What is weird is that kink in the jet stream started showing up on models, especially the Euro, a couple of years before it actually verified. It kept showing a trough popping up under an Alaskan ridge. So, I think what many thought was a bias by the Euro was a pattern that was very close to that kink. Now, we have it. Thankfully the changing wavelengths of fall should at least jostle the current pattern. The SOI really tanked during August and September and the daily contribution is near neutral today. Tons of conflicting signals and have been for about a year. It is almost like the climate has had a base Nina state since the last super Nino. Anyway, definitely agree that anomalous wx has been afoot since last December. My gut tells me this long lasting pattern will eventually break beginning next weekend and take about 3-4 weeks to break it down. But I could be easily wrong. Many wx models keep trying to break the pattern down, but it doesn't verify....likely just too quick.
  4. Carvers Gap
    TRI set its eighth record high for September today it appears - always have to wait a couple of days for it to be officially in the books. Tomorrow the high is forecast to be 90 so that would be a ninth if it verifies. What is even more interesting is that TRI's all time record high for October is 91. Looks like that has a very real chance of falling next week. Anytime an all-time record falls that is a fairly big deal. Looks like the first three days of October will be records. That would make for seven record highs in a row to fall. To me that probably makes this particular air mass a rival of 1954. I would be surprise if that is the last record high. Looks like some wild swings are on the way if the GFS and Euro operational are correct. I do think the weeks-on-end of record high temps are likely done. However, I do think that 2-3 spells of extreme heat are possible in front of some fairly strong cold fronts.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Point and click NWS forecast Fir-Sunday next weekend is upper 70s to low 80s at TRI. Might be a few degrees above normal, but with lows in the low 50s, going to feel much improved. The next four days are going to be sweltering, but if the NWS is correct...relief is on the way. Temps will potentially be 10-15 degrees cooler than the Monday-Thursday temps.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Pattern looks fairly progressive after Friday...which is about 100x better than what we have had and better than what the next four days hold. The ridge will not easily disperse, but looks like some typical fall cold fronts will at least knock it back.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks like if we can actually prove that a cold front can get through the forum area lat next week, the post frontal pattern may be warm but not extreme. More like a few degrees above normal vs. 10-15 AN. Also the pattern looks like one where the SER tries to rebuild, but the pattern becomes a bit more progressive and allows it to take hold for a few days at a time vs weeks at a time. We will see. Fingers crossed. Just get the 90s the heck out of here until next summer. Going to break a bunch records it appears prior to that front.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, couldn't see anything with the update and white font. Might be working now.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yep, font needs to be switched to black. Default is white...Can't see any previous posts because the font is white. No idea how to change that...but folks can post right now until they fix the other posts by simply switching font to black. It won't fix past posts, but current and future posts are good.
  10. Carvers Gap
    White font....switch it to black font and you can see your post. That doesn't fix the 100,000s of posts that are now white. I am assuming this will be fixed.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Record high #6 in the books for September with three more likely after today. TRI hit 90 which ties the old record set during 2017. The normal high is 76. If the NWS forecast verifies, we will break the record on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Sunday's record is an elusive 1954 record. If the 1954 record falls and the next three days are records, 2019 will be the undisputed, record-high record holder for the month of September(if my calculations are correct). If nature comes back and balances the checkbook so to speak...gonna hurt.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Interesting article. Saw HM or one of those guys like a Tweet from this page. Decent write-up about the potential upcoming winter, warts and all. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/
  13. Carvers Gap
    ...Just in time for the beginning of four months of yet another record -NAO.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think we do get a break by mid-October. I think the GEFS is just too quick. Not a great sign that the Euro Weeklies are not on board, but they absolutely don't see BN temps past week 3-4 right now - and that has verified poorly. Plus the Weeklies have been fairly terrible since about last December. Plenty of cold on the map today, just not here. The biggest thing is what Typhoon Tip noted on the main board's ENSO page which is that the northern hemisphere's atmospheric pattern has some eddies that won't break. The persistent buckle over the NW is one IMO. Anyway, I think the much AN stuff eventually backs off by mid October and maybe even sets the stage for a rather cool November. Cause anything is cooler than right now, right? Easy call. That is just an educated hunch which is open for debate. Meanwhile, the next couple of weeks are gonna be scorchers with maybe the extreme stuff backing off by day 8-9...maybe.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Picked up a nice shower that lasted about ten minutes. Unfortunately, caught the edge of yet another passing storm. Closes wx station has 0.05", but I think we may have been north of 0.1". (Update: Radarscope has me at .05"...pretty bad when .05" seems like a lot!) Saves me having to water the garden for a night! Still not near enough to hold back growing drought conditions, but we will certainly take it. Mid-town and the east side received much less if that is possible.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The real question...Are we going to get any appreciable precip during the next three weeks?
  17. Carvers Gap
    Received another passing shower. My raised beds aren't even damp from the rain. LOL. I can still see where I watered them from yesterday. Brutal weather pattern for gardeners.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Impressive increase of drought conditions and at a terrible time of the year for that. Hopefully, we can get this dry pattern to break in a couple of weeks...or it is gonna get bad.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The WeatherUnderground station on my end of town, which is pretty accurate, still has 0.00" of rain for September. We did have some light showers earlier this week, but the air was so dry that the ground was dry within less than five minutes. I am guessing we might have had 0.02-0.03" of rain if that. So in my book, we are now 29 days straight without appreciable rainfall. Four weeks with barely a drop. There is a small shower heading this way, but is quickly dissipating. Let's see if we can get some sprinkles from it.
  20. Carvers Gap
    New buzz word for weather this fall and winter...get ready to be inundated with the IOD.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I have managed not see D3(won’t admit to seeing the first two...) but I have heard it and lots of singing kids from the other room. The QBO is an odd deal. It does stall from time to time while riding and falling. What I don’t want to see is something similar to the the last drop where it stalled, when back up for an entire second cycle(never went negative), and then finally fell. I guess what it means is that we might see it finally go negative during late winter vs early or mid. We just need it falling to quote a famous Jayhawk fan. I think if we can get that by late October or November...good news. Absolutely don’t want to see it going back up...not sure how many times that has happened before(referring to the last double dip that allowed for a double positive cycle). Descendants 3 and the potential prolonging of summer...way to bring those together! Just what I needed. If not a pattern change, let’s at least get that front to pass through the entire forum area!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, definitely stalled it which has been the case ad nauseam for months on end. I do like that the GEFS and GEPS look decent after day nine and have held those looks for a few runs. But have to have the Euro on board....it has been stubborn to break the pattern and has been correct pretty much every time. I do hold out hope that it is often the last model to see a relaxation in the pattern or pattern change. But hey, at least we have some models with a front inside of day 10. LOL. Until then, we are going to absolutely roast this weekend and into early next week. MRX put out a graphic now about the chance for the 4+ consecutive record highs to fall beginning on Friday.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, felt great here this morning. Low to mid 50s if I remember correctly. Truly, in comparison this is what the worst of summer is out West above 5,000'. Cool mornings and warm days with low humidity all summer long.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Hmm. The daily input of the SOI has popped positive today. Have to thinks a shake-up is coming with that moving. The ridge on global ensembles is starting to take a beating around day 9. Now the real question, "Is it real?" I have said it for a couple of days...it will be really tough for the a ridge to hold in place as the seasons change. The wavelengths change(JB mentions that today...my comments precede his). Now, the ridge my return once we enter winter and longer wavelengths return. Back to the SOI, the really negative numbers of the SOI correspond with our record heat. It is always good to remember that MJO phases during winter get different results during different seasons. The SOI movement could signal that the MJO is getting ready to move, and we need it out of phase 1 in order for things to cool down. Now if the SOI stays positive for long enough it could pull the 30 and 90 day averages into positive territory. That will take a while as some big negative numbers were posted during September. It "may" signal that these dry, hot conditions are likely from some sort of Nina background in the atmosphere. Hear that before? All of last winter! Anyway, what might result are some extreme air masses later on down the line. Right now we are experiencing extreme heat? Does it flip, even if briefly, and deliver a strong cold shot into the East? Maybe. Models have hinted at that. Just some things I was kicking around today. Maybe we can get Jeff in here and see if he is ready to hop off the "hot" train yet? Hot about the SER and hot about the NCAA! LOL. I generally don't start looking for any type of cool down until he is on board and judging from his last post...not good. Jeff, do you see any potential for a pattern break in mid-October?
  25. Carvers Gap
    Ugh. Trust me, Tennessee basketball fans know all to well about the uneven hand of the NCAA and the SEC commish. We feel your pain. Have to fight them for sure. We didn't and we should have. And trust me, basketball season can't get here fast enough!!!! LOL.
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