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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Impressive increase of drought conditions and at a terrible time of the year for that. Hopefully, we can get this dry pattern to break in a couple of weeks...or it is gonna get bad.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The WeatherUnderground station on my end of town, which is pretty accurate, still has 0.00" of rain for September. We did have some light showers earlier this week, but the air was so dry that the ground was dry within less than five minutes. I am guessing we might have had 0.02-0.03" of rain if that. So in my book, we are now 29 days straight without appreciable rainfall. Four weeks with barely a drop. There is a small shower heading this way, but is quickly dissipating. Let's see if we can get some sprinkles from it.
  3. Carvers Gap
    New buzz word for weather this fall and winter...get ready to be inundated with the IOD.
  4. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I have managed not see D3(won’t admit to seeing the first two...) but I have heard it and lots of singing kids from the other room. The QBO is an odd deal. It does stall from time to time while riding and falling. What I don’t want to see is something similar to the the last drop where it stalled, when back up for an entire second cycle(never went negative), and then finally fell. I guess what it means is that we might see it finally go negative during late winter vs early or mid. We just need it falling to quote a famous Jayhawk fan. I think if we can get that by late October or November...good news. Absolutely don’t want to see it going back up...not sure how many times that has happened before(referring to the last double dip that allowed for a double positive cycle). Descendants 3 and the potential prolonging of summer...way to bring those together! Just what I needed. If not a pattern change, let’s at least get that front to pass through the entire forum area!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, definitely stalled it which has been the case ad nauseam for months on end. I do like that the GEFS and GEPS look decent after day nine and have held those looks for a few runs. But have to have the Euro on board....it has been stubborn to break the pattern and has been correct pretty much every time. I do hold out hope that it is often the last model to see a relaxation in the pattern or pattern change. But hey, at least we have some models with a front inside of day 10. LOL. Until then, we are going to absolutely roast this weekend and into early next week. MRX put out a graphic now about the chance for the 4+ consecutive record highs to fall beginning on Friday.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, felt great here this morning. Low to mid 50s if I remember correctly. Truly, in comparison this is what the worst of summer is out West above 5,000'. Cool mornings and warm days with low humidity all summer long.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Hmm. The daily input of the SOI has popped positive today. Have to thinks a shake-up is coming with that moving. The ridge on global ensembles is starting to take a beating around day 9. Now the real question, "Is it real?" I have said it for a couple of days...it will be really tough for the a ridge to hold in place as the seasons change. The wavelengths change(JB mentions that today...my comments precede his). Now, the ridge my return once we enter winter and longer wavelengths return. Back to the SOI, the really negative numbers of the SOI correspond with our record heat. It is always good to remember that MJO phases during winter get different results during different seasons. The SOI movement could signal that the MJO is getting ready to move, and we need it out of phase 1 in order for things to cool down. Now if the SOI stays positive for long enough it could pull the 30 and 90 day averages into positive territory. That will take a while as some big negative numbers were posted during September. It "may" signal that these dry, hot conditions are likely from some sort of Nina background in the atmosphere. Hear that before? All of last winter! Anyway, what might result are some extreme air masses later on down the line. Right now we are experiencing extreme heat? Does it flip, even if briefly, and deliver a strong cold shot into the East? Maybe. Models have hinted at that. Just some things I was kicking around today. Maybe we can get Jeff in here and see if he is ready to hop off the "hot" train yet? Hot about the SER and hot about the NCAA! LOL. I generally don't start looking for any type of cool down until he is on board and judging from his last post...not good. Jeff, do you see any potential for a pattern break in mid-October?
  8. Carvers Gap
    Ugh. Trust me, Tennessee basketball fans know all to well about the uneven hand of the NCAA and the SEC commish. We feel your pain. Have to fight them for sure. We didn't and we should have. And trust me, basketball season can't get here fast enough!!!! LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, anything with CFS is absolutely suspect...rest of the video is good. That is why I noted that the MJO was stalling in phase 1 yesterday w several other models...haven't looked at today's yet. Yeah, I can barely take the CFS seriously because it puts out a different solution often...a broken clock is right twice a day type deal. Interestingly, the Euro Weeklies have a fairly big break in continuity(compared to previous runs) at 500 beginning around the middle of October. It has fooled us before by depicting a flip, and then went right back to the eastern ridge. So, I am going to keep an eye on it for a couple of runs before delving into it so as not to be fooled again. It is odd that it went right to what DT was talking about. IDK... What is tough about the Weeklies is that recently they have not been showing BN temps after week 4. That is actually verifying as incorrect as there are ares in western Canada and the western US that will likely verify BN to much BN. So, I just look at heights from week 4 - 6. The GEFS on its past two runs is now breaking down the eastern ridge as well in the long term. The EPS and GEFS are not terribly far apart as they both move the ridge back into the Plains. That is probably too quick, but who knows? Maybe they are seeing something. I suspect they are a couple of weeks too quick. I am not sure if I would call it a retrograde or just a reforming of the ridge further west...not sure it actually backs west vs reforms there. Might that be the first time this pattern has "blinked?" If anything, I think that the changing wavelengths of fall will at least temporarily shake-up the well entrenched western trough/eastern ridge alignment. As DT mentioned, with that warm water in the eastern Pac, that is going to be a long term problem in keeping an eastern trough.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Not even gonna put in on the pattern discussion thread after the last head fake. The Euro Weeklies have broken slightly with continuity IMHO this evening....much different 500 setup after mid-October. The control brought repetitive shots of cooler air into the East from that time to early Nov. Will waiter for another run before really dissecting it after last time.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Have received a couple of light showers here. Maybe .01 or .02....slightly more than a trace. Basically a dry frontal passage, but feels nice out there!
  12. Carvers Gap
    If any of you all wanted to know what summers out West feel like(on the hottest days), the past few days are super similar. Low humidity, cool mornings, and tolerable when cloudy. John, glad you are getting some rain. You all have really dodged the worst of this during this summer/fall. I am on my 26th day straight with no rain IMBY. Send it this way.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And the EPS control basically tries to pull off the same deal. No way I think it verifies, but that is crazy to see tropical systems trying to phase into a massive cold front heading eastward on two models today. It has happened before....but I just don't see this pattern breaking down like that. Seems way too stubborn. EPS mean will have none of it. Would be interesting to see how the 1954 heat run finally broke since its November was so cold - measurable snow in some parts of the forum area that month. If anything remotely similar happened to those runs today...I would laugh about it for years to come. Anyway, that is is in Lala land and rightly so. DT's video in the pattern discussion thread does discuss a potential cold shot around October 15th thanks to the MJO. I don't think it has staying power, but it would provide a welcome shot of seasonal to cooler air.
  14. Carvers Gap
    What the 12z GFS just did was banter worthy. Give that d10+ a look. We can at least dream right! Even the lake effect snow machine fires up!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Really good video by DT about the current tropical situation, the current wx pattern which is producing much AN temps over the eastern half of the United States, and maybe where the pattern goes. He also delves into the pattern in the SST in eastern Pacific around Alaska. He does note that the MJO "should move into phase2 by mid October and then into phase three which should effectively end the much AN temps. Hope that is correct, because I have seen a few models stall the MJO in phase 1 almost indefinitely. Anyway, worth a look...super focused on much of what has already been mentioned in this thread.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I have looked only briefly this morning, but it looks like really warm temps on tap for this weekend and into next week. I think it is vey realistic that TRI could actually break the records for this Friday through Monday(one week...not today). Again, it is crazy how similar this is to 1954...but we have yet to break one of those records. Might have a chance in October to break one from that year. What is even wilder, is November of 1954 was really cold. Don't look at winter of 54-55 though...started cool and then the pattern returned. I think in this case, once the patterns leaves...it is gone. It has been a remarkably consistent pattern for almost ten months. Even though it has been warm here, the Mountain West has been BN to sometimes well BN. BTW, I don't think we broke the record yesterday at TRI last I think the high was 88. I think we have about 2-3 more weeks of this...then the transitional wavelengths of the fall season will likely shake-up the pattern - I hope!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting "opportunity." If TRI can hit the record high today of 90, next weekend's temps are well within reach on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as those record high temps(if I am remember correctly) are in the 89-90 range....that means five more record high temps could fall. That would leave 2019 will a full 1/3(ten of the thirty record high temps in one calendar year) of TRI's record high temps! I kinda think that might be tough as a single, cloudy day could derail that...but still this is some rare air. Something to keep an eye on...even without those other records, five is incredibly impressive. If we hit the forecast high today and next weekend, this might be a once in 50 year heat event for the month of September. Interestingly in 1954, there are five more record highs in October. It is fairly amazing how closely we are mirroring that year so far. Looks like the last blast of incredible heat will be in early October(and later this week as well)...then climo begins to push temps back fairly rapidly. In other words, we may see more records but just not of the extreme summer heat variety.
  18. Carvers Gap
    A fifth record high for September in now in the books at TRI hit a whopping 92 on September 16th. For some of you further south that might not sound too bad...up here that is pretty much as out of bounds as one get as evidenced by the record. Looks like there may be more chances for records to fall next weekend and early into the next week. Oddly, none of the 1954 record highs have fallen....just picking low hanging fruit right now by setting records on the other days. LOL....yeah, even the low hanging fruit is still hot!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Sitting at 25 days straight with no rainfall. On the other side of town this week, there was a brief shower that wet the streets(barely)...nothing here.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Was that the year that NE TN had a ton of snow...but the Plateau kept missing out? Seems like during one of those winters of that timeframe it snowed like crazy here...and might have been BN for you all. Hope that does not happen this year BTW...just trying to place that winter.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. I have seen the 14-15 analog kicked around some...maybe by JB or D'Aleo. I am too lazy to look, but was that a La Nina year? I know Jax mentioned this in the main board ENSO thread(and I agree) this heat and flip to almost no precip is almost like La Nina.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Following up on Jax's post...the Weeklies are just brutal in regards to temps and precip. The worst warm temp anomalies for the Lower 48 are over the TN Valley. The worst temp anomalies are over western North Carolina where the usual brown color scheme for the worst precip departures is now actually shades of red. Maybe there have a slow breakdown of the pattern. However, as Jaxnoted, almost every time this pattern is modeled to break down...it doesn't verify. Admittedly, the Euro Weeklies are prone to follow the forecast they are derived from, and almost assuredly, they will actually miss the eventual pattern change. But ya'll, this temp pattern(minus some noted breaks...the potential drought is a new feature) has been absolutely locked into place since the second week of December! My rule of thumb is that a pattern lasts around 4-6 weeks. Been a very long time since I have seen a temp pattern survive this long. That monster SER has been locked into place and maybe by November it shows some weakness. That is the warmest set of Weeklies I think that I have ever seen. Hopefully, the will be as wrong as they were last winter. But we know the rule...warm always verifies. That will be my only Weeklies updated until the pattern shows some changes....nobody want to hear my play by play of increasingly warm temps.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It does look like another near-record warm, air mass will approach our forum area beginning on Saturday. The record high at TRI on Sunday is 90 and that is our forecast high. The record highs for the few days after that look like they are just out of reach, but there are a few later in the month that are reachable. Wouldn't surprise me to see us set another record or two before this next air mass leaves us. Meanwhile, enjoy today...about perfect compared to recent weeks.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Kudos to the SE forum folks finding this. The CPC updated their maps today. Her are the OND, DJF, and JFM temp maps. My takeaways are: 1. This warm fall set-up is going to take some time to break down...but there is hope. Looking like a gradual step down from these wicked hot temps. 2. The persistent SER is reasonably absent from those outlooks. Looks like they favor a western ridge and central/Midwest trough setup developing with poor source regions fro cold. I do really like the JFM outlook. It is also good to keep in mind that they rarely forecast large areas of cold at LR. It is also of note that they do forecast colder areas at 30 day ranges...and those are absent which jives with recent Euro Weeklies and Seasonal model runs. I have a tendency not to look at temps, but to try to look at where they think the ridge/trough placement will be which is usually indicated by these types of maps. Wherever the trough sets up is where the cold will likely setup...again the severity of which we don't know due to source region temps being fickle to predict at this range. 3. Unless I missed something flipping through the maps quickly, precip is normal in our subform area w AN along the northern tier of the US. 4. They have a couple of great writeups. Here is the 30 day discussion link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html . Here is the 90 day long lead: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html. Those discussions connect really well to discussions that we have had in multiple threads among multiple posters.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Have a few things that I wanted to share with this photo....First, you can see just how dry MBY is. Normally, it is a full and a lush green. Since it is south facing, it can get admittedly a but scruffy at this time of year. But this is well past being scruffy and about as bad as it gets. Second, you can see the leaves changing. Third, @Stovepipe, you can see the mustard greens, lettuce and cover crops chugging away. We water those which is why they are green. Lastly, it is thankfully cloudy! If we do indeed go a couple of more weeks with very little rain, we have a "before" pic now.
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