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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, anything with CFS is absolutely suspect...rest of the video is good. That is why I noted that the MJO was stalling in phase 1 yesterday w several other models...haven't looked at today's yet. Yeah, I can barely take the CFS seriously because it puts out a different solution often...a broken clock is right twice a day type deal. Interestingly, the Euro Weeklies have a fairly big break in continuity(compared to previous runs) at 500 beginning around the middle of October. It has fooled us before by depicting a flip, and then went right back to the eastern ridge. So, I am going to keep an eye on it for a couple of runs before delving into it so as not to be fooled again. It is odd that it went right to what DT was talking about. IDK... What is tough about the Weeklies is that recently they have not been showing BN temps after week 4. That is actually verifying as incorrect as there are ares in western Canada and the western US that will likely verify BN to much BN. So, I just look at heights from week 4 - 6. The GEFS on its past two runs is now breaking down the eastern ridge as well in the long term. The EPS and GEFS are not terribly far apart as they both move the ridge back into the Plains. That is probably too quick, but who knows? Maybe they are seeing something. I suspect they are a couple of weeks too quick. I am not sure if I would call it a retrograde or just a reforming of the ridge further west...not sure it actually backs west vs reforms there. Might that be the first time this pattern has "blinked?" If anything, I think that the changing wavelengths of fall will at least temporarily shake-up the well entrenched western trough/eastern ridge alignment. As DT mentioned, with that warm water in the eastern Pac, that is going to be a long term problem in keeping an eastern trough.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Not even gonna put in on the pattern discussion thread after the last head fake. The Euro Weeklies have broken slightly with continuity IMHO this evening....much different 500 setup after mid-October. The control brought repetitive shots of cooler air into the East from that time to early Nov. Will waiter for another run before really dissecting it after last time.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Have received a couple of light showers here. Maybe .01 or .02....slightly more than a trace. Basically a dry frontal passage, but feels nice out there!
  4. Carvers Gap
    If any of you all wanted to know what summers out West feel like(on the hottest days), the past few days are super similar. Low humidity, cool mornings, and tolerable when cloudy. John, glad you are getting some rain. You all have really dodged the worst of this during this summer/fall. I am on my 26th day straight with no rain IMBY. Send it this way.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And the EPS control basically tries to pull off the same deal. No way I think it verifies, but that is crazy to see tropical systems trying to phase into a massive cold front heading eastward on two models today. It has happened before....but I just don't see this pattern breaking down like that. Seems way too stubborn. EPS mean will have none of it. Would be interesting to see how the 1954 heat run finally broke since its November was so cold - measurable snow in some parts of the forum area that month. If anything remotely similar happened to those runs today...I would laugh about it for years to come. Anyway, that is is in Lala land and rightly so. DT's video in the pattern discussion thread does discuss a potential cold shot around October 15th thanks to the MJO. I don't think it has staying power, but it would provide a welcome shot of seasonal to cooler air.
  6. Carvers Gap
    What the 12z GFS just did was banter worthy. Give that d10+ a look. We can at least dream right! Even the lake effect snow machine fires up!
  7. Carvers Gap
    Really good video by DT about the current tropical situation, the current wx pattern which is producing much AN temps over the eastern half of the United States, and maybe where the pattern goes. He also delves into the pattern in the SST in eastern Pacific around Alaska. He does note that the MJO "should move into phase2 by mid October and then into phase three which should effectively end the much AN temps. Hope that is correct, because I have seen a few models stall the MJO in phase 1 almost indefinitely. Anyway, worth a look...super focused on much of what has already been mentioned in this thread.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I have looked only briefly this morning, but it looks like really warm temps on tap for this weekend and into next week. I think it is vey realistic that TRI could actually break the records for this Friday through Monday(one week...not today). Again, it is crazy how similar this is to 1954...but we have yet to break one of those records. Might have a chance in October to break one from that year. What is even wilder, is November of 1954 was really cold. Don't look at winter of 54-55 though...started cool and then the pattern returned. I think in this case, once the patterns leaves...it is gone. It has been a remarkably consistent pattern for almost ten months. Even though it has been warm here, the Mountain West has been BN to sometimes well BN. BTW, I don't think we broke the record yesterday at TRI last I think the high was 88. I think we have about 2-3 more weeks of this...then the transitional wavelengths of the fall season will likely shake-up the pattern - I hope!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting "opportunity." If TRI can hit the record high today of 90, next weekend's temps are well within reach on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as those record high temps(if I am remember correctly) are in the 89-90 range....that means five more record high temps could fall. That would leave 2019 will a full 1/3(ten of the thirty record high temps in one calendar year) of TRI's record high temps! I kinda think that might be tough as a single, cloudy day could derail that...but still this is some rare air. Something to keep an eye on...even without those other records, five is incredibly impressive. If we hit the forecast high today and next weekend, this might be a once in 50 year heat event for the month of September. Interestingly in 1954, there are five more record highs in October. It is fairly amazing how closely we are mirroring that year so far. Looks like the last blast of incredible heat will be in early October(and later this week as well)...then climo begins to push temps back fairly rapidly. In other words, we may see more records but just not of the extreme summer heat variety.
  10. Carvers Gap
    A fifth record high for September in now in the books at TRI hit a whopping 92 on September 16th. For some of you further south that might not sound too bad...up here that is pretty much as out of bounds as one get as evidenced by the record. Looks like there may be more chances for records to fall next weekend and early into the next week. Oddly, none of the 1954 record highs have fallen....just picking low hanging fruit right now by setting records on the other days. LOL....yeah, even the low hanging fruit is still hot!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Sitting at 25 days straight with no rainfall. On the other side of town this week, there was a brief shower that wet the streets(barely)...nothing here.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Was that the year that NE TN had a ton of snow...but the Plateau kept missing out? Seems like during one of those winters of that timeframe it snowed like crazy here...and might have been BN for you all. Hope that does not happen this year BTW...just trying to place that winter.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. I have seen the 14-15 analog kicked around some...maybe by JB or D'Aleo. I am too lazy to look, but was that a La Nina year? I know Jax mentioned this in the main board ENSO thread(and I agree) this heat and flip to almost no precip is almost like La Nina.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Following up on Jax's post...the Weeklies are just brutal in regards to temps and precip. The worst warm temp anomalies for the Lower 48 are over the TN Valley. The worst temp anomalies are over western North Carolina where the usual brown color scheme for the worst precip departures is now actually shades of red. Maybe there have a slow breakdown of the pattern. However, as Jaxnoted, almost every time this pattern is modeled to break down...it doesn't verify. Admittedly, the Euro Weeklies are prone to follow the forecast they are derived from, and almost assuredly, they will actually miss the eventual pattern change. But ya'll, this temp pattern(minus some noted breaks...the potential drought is a new feature) has been absolutely locked into place since the second week of December! My rule of thumb is that a pattern lasts around 4-6 weeks. Been a very long time since I have seen a temp pattern survive this long. That monster SER has been locked into place and maybe by November it shows some weakness. That is the warmest set of Weeklies I think that I have ever seen. Hopefully, the will be as wrong as they were last winter. But we know the rule...warm always verifies. That will be my only Weeklies updated until the pattern shows some changes....nobody want to hear my play by play of increasingly warm temps.
  15. Carvers Gap
    It does look like another near-record warm, air mass will approach our forum area beginning on Saturday. The record high at TRI on Sunday is 90 and that is our forecast high. The record highs for the few days after that look like they are just out of reach, but there are a few later in the month that are reachable. Wouldn't surprise me to see us set another record or two before this next air mass leaves us. Meanwhile, enjoy today...about perfect compared to recent weeks.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Kudos to the SE forum folks finding this. The CPC updated their maps today. Her are the OND, DJF, and JFM temp maps. My takeaways are: 1. This warm fall set-up is going to take some time to break down...but there is hope. Looking like a gradual step down from these wicked hot temps. 2. The persistent SER is reasonably absent from those outlooks. Looks like they favor a western ridge and central/Midwest trough setup developing with poor source regions fro cold. I do really like the JFM outlook. It is also good to keep in mind that they rarely forecast large areas of cold at LR. It is also of note that they do forecast colder areas at 30 day ranges...and those are absent which jives with recent Euro Weeklies and Seasonal model runs. I have a tendency not to look at temps, but to try to look at where they think the ridge/trough placement will be which is usually indicated by these types of maps. Wherever the trough sets up is where the cold will likely setup...again the severity of which we don't know due to source region temps being fickle to predict at this range. 3. Unless I missed something flipping through the maps quickly, precip is normal in our subform area w AN along the northern tier of the US. 4. They have a couple of great writeups. Here is the 30 day discussion link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html . Here is the 90 day long lead: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html. Those discussions connect really well to discussions that we have had in multiple threads among multiple posters.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Have a few things that I wanted to share with this photo....First, you can see just how dry MBY is. Normally, it is a full and a lush green. Since it is south facing, it can get admittedly a but scruffy at this time of year. But this is well past being scruffy and about as bad as it gets. Second, you can see the leaves changing. Third, @Stovepipe, you can see the mustard greens, lettuce and cover crops chugging away. We water those which is why they are green. Lastly, it is thankfully cloudy! If we do indeed go a couple of more weeks with very little rain, we have a "before" pic now.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That was an interesting run. Huge winter storm over the lee of the northern Rockies mid-run. Three to four feet in the Crazies and Beartooths of southwest MT. Would be nice to see that feature. It has hinted at early northern Rockies snowstorms during past runs intermittently. That would at least shake-up the pattern.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z operationals and ensembles pretty much bone dry for NE TN with the exception of maybe getting total of a .1". I have not received rain for 21 days. If we go 16 more, that is going to get pretty sketchy. The likelihood of me having 0.00" of precip for September is a possibility....have to think we at least get something. The heat ridge on the EPS is brutal to the point it is not even worth talking about. The operational does have some very brief cool downs followed by more heat. Nothing like dry frontal passages.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I linked the Wildlands fire danger map below - there are several variations of threats and data on the left menu bar. Plenty to look at and interesting for sure. I am not aware of any significant fires at the moment. We have had just enough rainfall to keep the worst conditions at bay. What we don't want are high winds to go with the high temps...dries things out in a hurry. Though we are not out West and our fire season does not really have a ton of similarities to theirs...sometimes wet springs can accentuate the following fire season or two due to more growth(fuel) than average. I agree with Jeff that the danger is not there at the moment, but the precip forecast is bleak. Total accumulate precip for the 16day noon run of the GFS is .2-.3 for most of NE TN with a few spots modeled to get .3-.4. Keep in mind that IMBY we have already gone twenty days with no appreciable rainfall(might have had one day with sprinkles that barely did more than stir the dust). If the GFS is right(LOL...how many times have we said that in our lifetimes), that would be almost a month straight with no rainfall. The CMC through 240 is about the same with just a few hundredths forecast for NE TN. Thank goodness for replenished aquifers or this would be pretty bad. Low humidity with record or near record temps.... https://www.wfas.net/index.php/fire-danger-rating-fire-potential--danger-32/north-america-fire-danger-map/92-sfwpinterface
  21. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if that is driven by the tropics(GOM origin)? A couple of recent runs of the GFS have also been trying to leave a cutoff over the nation's midsection as well which slowly meanders eastward. The last week of September is a slight relaxation of the SER pattern. At the end of the last pattern relaxation in August, Dorian went through the Bahamas. So maybe, something is getting pulled in there. Another good find, Powell. Hope we see some precip from it. Definitely need it.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Good info. While not as dry as the fires that burned Gatlinburg(as that resulted from a summer long drought), it pretty alarming how dry things are right now and after a very wet spring. I guess the heat and low humidity is the culprit. WJHL I think had passed along the danger of brush fires. These really dry falls are bad business because there is so much dry fuel in the forest. The trees are also parched. I think John was saying that the northern Plateau is in better shape. Seems like it is the valley floor eastward to the Smokies. The only time my yard has looked worse was during that fall a few years back.
  23. Carvers Gap
    In all seriousness, if we don't get some rain there could be serious fire issues in the eastern valley....low humidity, not a ton of precip recently, and record warm temps.
  24. Carvers Gap
    You should be good to go. I am kicking myself for not putting out a late season crop of beans. They would be loving this weather. My cool weather crops are doing OK despite the record heat. Maybe the days getting shorter and longer nights is giving them just enough of a break.
  25. Carvers Gap
    What was your final high for the day?
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