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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Weather this AM is gnarly. The weather in this trailer is gnarly as well. The Star Wars theme/score in the middle of this trailer is just sick. I saw the first one in the theaters in 1977. I was super disappointed in the last Star Wars movie. This trailer gives me hope that they will get this one right. The was the last Star Wars full trailer of my time. But wow, what a trailer it is.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just tagging onto my earlier post. I think that 6z GEFS(10.21.19) run still looks like a good compromise. Looks like the 12z GEFS and EPS have their act back together...at least for this run. Very similar runs and placement of features. Looks like both moved towards each other. About the only thing different from a few days ago(looked super quick...so don't consider this a scientific statement with loads of rigor) is a cut-off that will dive into the southwest. "Looks" like the Euro has resolved leaving the low in the Southwest versus just dumping every subsequent cold shot there. IMHO, that is just normal bias working itself out. My main concern, is that has sort of been the actual solution(cold dumping West and staying) for about ten months so I am definitely gun shy. Basically a progressive pattern with warm and cold dispersed fairly evenly. Weeklies will run off a very warm run...bet they would have looked different if derived from the 12z.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Was a Saturday of close calls. Kansas nearly edged out Texas. The Vols were a botched fourth down play from taking the Tide down to the wire. Hey, having the number one team in the country in a one score game late was a true feat for a team that lost to Georgia State, a game which I will never fully understand.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now. Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Pac...as Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter. I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part. The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with. Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin. As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course. At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two. That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years. The 90s had many low water years out there. When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term. Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat. But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below. Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot. Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive. Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch. Might be we get both of each this winter.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Not a ton this AM that hasn't already been discussed. Sometimes that EPO ridge can bee too much of a good thing. Looks like the Euro is correctly placing energy into the Southwest sort of underneath that big ridge. We have seen that many times during past years. Cold is forecast for the East and the model corrects by dropping it into the West underneath a big West Coast, coastal high. Fortunately, I wasn't totally bought into the cold Eastern solution quite yet. I do think it is a situation where the trough still eventually goes into the East. The GEFS has corrected towards the EPS solution this AM which is of no surprise at all. I actually like the 6z GEFS run as I suspect that might be how it evolves at 500. Energy hangs back and then kicks out...and the eastern trough reforms for a time. My money is on a big warmup next weekend into early next week. Would not surprise me to see some record highs fall, though I have not looked at them recently. I made a mental note a few weeks ago that there were some low-hanging fruit record highs in late October. This week should be pleasant with seasonal to slightly BN. The 12z runs will be interesting to see if the the GEFS and EPS continue to move towards each other. Some say the recurving typhoon over Japan is responsible for the bouncing around of the EPS over the weekend. I think it is just fall, and well within what normally happens...which means LR ensembles are notoriously fickle at this time of year. I still think the overall pattern is one where cold builds out West and then surges eastward with big fronts. Warm surges behind those fronts on return flow. Wash, rinse, repeat. Pretty classic fall pattern. In other words, fairly progressive pattern where nothing really holds yet.
  6. Carvers Gap
    TRI's wx data for the past nineteen days of October. Notably, on October 3rd TRI had a record high temp of 94. Just two weeks later, the high was 60. That impressive 34 degree change definitely challenged the wardrobe of many. Shorts and t-shirsts to hoodies and rain jackets! Five of the last six days have featured BN temps with plentiful rainfall and the first frost of the season on rooftops IMBY.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Very beneficial rains fell in NE TN yesterday which is a regions that has struggled to get rainfall before last week.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a weak trend long term to slide a SER in south Georgia and the coastal Carolinas. With that cold water off of South America, does not surprise me at all. I continue to think a back-and-forth pattern is likely with cold building in the northwest and surging SE w/ arm air surging in between cold air masses...and significant(but temporary) heat at that. Sometimes with ensembles, the average/mean shows up and the average or mean is not the actual weather. That SE ridge is going to be significant in front of incoming cold fronts, and I wonder if maybe that is why it is showing up. The GEFS nor GEPS have this, but the overall long wave pattern over NA is fairly similar among all global ensembles - GEFS would have a SER if it backed up a few hundred miles. The Euro does a good job in detecting that SE ridge early. Now, the Euro bias is also to hold cold air back in the SW. However, it has been correct about this for months on end, but sometimes it misses because of this. I think with it being shoulder season, we are just going to see an unsettled pattern. This past week is probably a great example. Lots of conflicting signals out there, and I am sure it is playing havoc with LR modeling including along with the changing wavelengths of the season. Lots of moving parts.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I actually like wx twitter...just have to filter out the blah. I literally only follow like twenty people total on Twitter. For me, pics use up a ton of my AmWx storage, so just easier to use a Tweet. Point is the with Tweet above, though we are about to enter a normal to BN pattern...tough to extrapolate that too far out as the 6wave pattern is likely not sustainable - need to have a more stable wave pattern. That will likely break down fairly quickly. For those saying there will be a quick return to warmth, that pattern probably supports that - meaning it will break down. That 6wave pattern is fairly progressive and won’t allow heat to build over one area for long. But once it breaks down heat will possibly build under either a western or eastern ridge.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I saw one of these stations last spring and again over the summer during trips out there. Pretty cool article on cloud seeding in the Salt River Range with the intent to produce more snow that will in turn produce better water years for energy and agricultural purposes. BTW, this guy runs a great blog. I think he used to work in Oklahoma at the storm center. http://blog.starvalleyweather.com/2019/10/14/cloud-seeding-in-star-valley-and-western-wyoming-an-update-2019/
  11. Carvers Gap
    I thought it was windy today...when I opted to stay under the bridge, I might have understated the winds. Winds were clocked in the 30mph range today in areas of E TN. If you have ever watched the weather roll in over the ridge lines at higher elevations...that is what it looked like. Grabbed this graphic from MRX's FB page...
  12. Carvers Gap
    I am with you Jed...when I looked out and saw it raining this morning, felt like I was watching it snow(it had become such a rarity). Anyway, looks like wind chills this evening in southwest VA are ranging form the low to upper 30s. Wind chills at TRI are in the low to mid 40s there. Wind is really howling. This is my kind of weather. Friday morning has a mention of patchy frost by MRX for Kingsport as lows dip into the mid 30s. Will be interesting if later this month TRI can approach a record low as many are in the mid 20s. The GFS has been toying with this for several runs - but it has a notable cold bias so we will see. Wouldn't be surprised to even set a record high early next week. Looks like some wild temp swings coming up. That is fall to me...some nice days and some gnarly weather days. I had to stop jogging today and chill out under a bridge as sheets of light rain and drizzle came up the river on about 15 mph winds. Looked like the kind of thing you would normally see at higher elevations. Anyway, I didn't really chicken out by trying to stay drive. I was done walking my route and was waiting for my ride. Just surreal to be roasting a couple of weeks ago and then to be witnessing a scene like that. Wild, but why I like the weather and find it interesting. My neighbor saw me heading out in shorts and a T-shirt and noted that it was probably time to switch to warmer clothes...I was thinking he was likely right as I was standing under that bridge.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good illustration of the hemispheric pattern where the wavelengths are really shortened up likely due to the season change. Finally have the term I was looking for earlier in the thread - wave. So, wave3 and wave4 patterns are fairly stable IMHO with w4 patterns being very common during winter(correct me if I am wrong on that). The wave6 pattern below is probably not sustainable for very long. What becomes the stable pattern once this(if it even verifies) reverses back to a wave4 or wave3 pattern is debatable. Pattern could revert back to the most recent warm pattern or form something new. IMHO, sort of like spinning the wheel on the old Price is Right. The wheel is gonna eventually stop...but can we win a new car is the question? Also note this is waaaay out there and may not verify...but this also might explain why the GFS is so cold - cause it might be wrong. LOL. Anyway, I thought it was a interesting look even if it didn't verify.
  14. Carvers Gap
    So.....haven't seen rain for months. The band is heading into Western NC over the weekend. A low comes out of the GOM along the SE coast throwing copious amounts of precip back int W NC. I think we get the event in, but gonna be a tight fit. Hoping that system doesn't get there until late Saturday night - Euro needs to be right!
  15. Carvers Gap
    For the eastern two grand divisions, looks like the lion's share of precip fell north of I-40. NW TN, NE AR, SE MO, and the western half of KY did very well along with areas just north of Nashville. Also appears that anywhere 0.80-1.00" of rain in the Kingsport area this morning. For once, an over producer IMBY!!! I thought RadarScope looked too low. So, I scanned some wxunderground stations and many showed one inch totals near MBY which seemed too high. AHPS seems to give some credence to those higher totals, though maybe not quite that high. Still, a good rain event for some with a maybe some more still to fall. https://water.weather.gov/precip/
  16. Carvers Gap
    A big snowstorm in NE TN in late October is the kiss of death here. Cold Novembers, as John has documented, generally favor cold winters. Last winter was an exception to that rule. As Jeff noted as well, probably want to see some strong cold fronts then - the winter will remember what happens in November. However, I really don't like seeing snowstorms in October - though I don't really have a choice in the matter so I just enjoy it anyway. LOL. I definitely think there is always a danger that sometimes cold source areas get emptied of cold and then it takes them some time to rebuild. Though, I am sure there is a line of thinking that cold sources can replenish quickly.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Lastly...what a welcome sight!
  18. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the d10-15 EPS is pretty cold....time will tell.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Glad to have you posting on here. I look forward to more posts.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Some fun stats. TRI had 44 straight days of AN temps until yesterday when its departure was -2. During that same time frame, MBY(airport had a little more precip due to a few more showers) had just 0.1" rain. Saturday's high of 71 was TRI's coolest high temp since May 15th just looking quickly at things. Temps will likely be below normal to well below normal on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday with highs struggling to reach 60 on Thursday. Looks like Friday AM has an outside chance of scattered frost with lows approaching the mid30s. The high on Thursday will be nearly 30-35 degrees cooler than it was just two weeks ago. It has been a remarkable transition.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Can I just say how awesome it is not have temperatures in the mid90s everyday? Feels like a million bucks out there. I am jealous of the frosty mornings, John. We might have a shot at scattered frost later this week here. First freeze and first frost may show up at the same time if we miss Thursday!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Very good points about the PDO. I do think the SST gradient is making some usually dependable indices less dependable. Also, agree that the -AMO did help to offset the POD during the 70s. It is a good example of how a favorable Atlantic can really help. Also, good points by John about the EPO. Going to be interesting last to which drivers really have the most influence. Last winter, my ideas were actually warmer than most forecasts even with my backloaded winter idea, but not still not anywhere close to being warm enough. If the Weeklies from last night verified, I would feel really good about winter...but no way I am dying on that hill just yet(meaning one run of the Weeklies). LOL. Seriously, the discussion on this page has been stellar.
  23. Carvers Gap
    As for winter...man, I was tired last night and hope my posts weren't too disconnected. Shew. Anyway, winter at this latitude and elevation has never been a slam dunk. It is really going to depend on whether cold air and moisture get into the pattern at the same time. Bad patterns can produce snow and good patterns can be snowless. So really, at this range we can only guess the pattern. Last winter looked like a slam dunk to many, and it never materialized. For me, I thought December would be warm but Jan/Feb cold. Hit the first and missed the second two. All three were warm. At this point, just need to see where the cold sets up shop...and where the storm track is. I remember us all seeing those awesome runs of the Euro Weeklies...and then Jeff noting, "....but the storm track is over Kansas." Indeed it was and indeed it stayed there. So, going to have to see where the cold and storm track sets up. Fun to speculate though!
  24. Carvers Gap
    I agree with Jeff that the Weeklies are notorious for being wrong during shoulder season, mainly outside of week four. So, even though last night's run supports some of my thoughts...those thoughts are no more right nor wrong than they were yesterday prior to this run. So, right now I am just sharing a 30day 500 map from d16-46. The Euro Weeklies have slowly evolved to this vs just one big flip. Are they right? No idea. Again, 2m temps past wk4 are just raging warm and likely incorrect. It is going to be cold and significantly cold somewhere in NA. I will say, I really wish we had that look in January. Features that are present: 1. Kind of a hybrid PNA/EPO ridge 2. WAR(Western Atlantic Ridge) 3. Blocking over Greenland and over most of the pole. 4. Eastern trough centered a bit too to the east to really deliver news making cold to our forum area. NE might be really cold. 5. Likely a coastal/inland storm track as systems run into the WAR. Long story short. Looks very much like the pattern for the next weeks just being repeated. Huge if...but if that verifies, the trough over eastern NA is likely stronger and the ridge out West stronger. Fly in the ointment would be that the pattern retrogrades some late in the run. The WAR gets into the NE. But again...it is shoulder season and I can just about guarantee that map is going to change and likely for the worse as that is about as good a 500 map as one can get at that range - if you like fall that is. 3.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Great discussion by all BTW. Going to hit the sack. 0z suites are rolling. Plenty to discuss tomorrow. Will be super interesting to see if the QBO drops again this month. Also, low solar can cause some crazy effects as well and produce opposite results of common analogs. Anyway, my mind has gone to mush at this late hour. Cheers!
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