Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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And the happy hour run of the 18z GFS did not disappoint. LOL. Brrrrrr. Low 40s into the Florida Panhandle.
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That cold next to South America has SER written all over it. Worst case could be a torch...best case an inland storm track.
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LOL. Nashville folks may want "in" on this ranking, probably Memphis as well...and maybe whatever defense showed up against Georgia State. Also, I am a Steelers fan. I feel fairly certain Rudolph sort of feels like he wondered into a snow black hole on Sunday after getting knocked out cold.
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I put my garlic and shallots into one of my raised beds yesterday. Figured the upcoming seasonal to AN(but not extreme) wx will get them off to a good start before the first inevitable freeze hits at some point during the next few weeks. My garlic is definitely a testament to @Stovepipe's sharing about his garlic harvest a few years back. This is my second year growing. I had never attempted it prior to reading his post. Shallots are a new venture.(probably tried some during the wrong time of year several years ago) Some folks call them multiplier or potato onions, because one bulb will produce many over the winter and early spring. I am still shocked that my "cool weather" crops have done so well given the record temps of the last few weeks. The only thing that just came up and was like, "Nope..." was spinach. Everything else has done very well considering the temps and drought. I think it is due to an odd, but useful setup in my garden in relation to sun angle. During the summer, the angle of the sun provides direct sunlight all summer. However, during the fall, it drops just enough into the southwest that the tops of some tall trees shade the garden in the afternoon. Anyway, if you all garden...this is perfect time to plant garlic. Just let it sit all winter, grow during the spring, and harvest as the tops brown and fall over next summer. Filaree Farms has a great site for pretty much all root crops, but especially for garlic. They have a growing guide as well.
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18z GFS is some wildness....
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So lettuce talk about the GFS after 300...this is in banter so that in itself is an acknowledgement of the situation and if that wasn't enough then I refer to "lettuce." To be clear...I don't think that is going to happen. However, both the Euro and the GFS have tried to dig a trough just far enough south that it grabs a tropical system and forms some extra-tropical something. I don't think that is out of the question. But the GFS today almost took that a step further....if that tropical system had been picked-up a shade earlier that would have likely meant yet another year with heavy, early mountain snows which we now know is the kiss of death for winter. All it will take is one powerful cold front(of which several have been shown after this weekend...no idea if any of those verify) to pick-up a rare GOM storm of which models have been hinting at for a few days. Now, I am all for it because it would rain here and we would ironically finish the summer the way that we began - wet. Anyway, this is a BIG "what if" post which is "way out there" so hence the reason for it being here.
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....but the current heat ridge gets the W!!! LOL.
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White font....switch it to black font and you can see your post. That doesn't fix the 100,000s of posts that are now white. I am assuming this will be fixed.
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...Just in time for the beginning of four months of yet another record -NAO.
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New buzz word for weather this fall and winter...get ready to be inundated with the IOD.
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Ugh. Trust me, Tennessee basketball fans know all to well about the uneven hand of the NCAA and the SEC commish. We feel your pain. Have to fight them for sure. We didn't and we should have. And trust me, basketball season can't get here fast enough!!!! LOL.
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Not even gonna put in on the pattern discussion thread after the last head fake. The Euro Weeklies have broken slightly with continuity IMHO this evening....much different 500 setup after mid-October. The control brought repetitive shots of cooler air into the East from that time to early Nov. Will waiter for another run before really dissecting it after last time.
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And the EPS control basically tries to pull off the same deal. No way I think it verifies, but that is crazy to see tropical systems trying to phase into a massive cold front heading eastward on two models today. It has happened before....but I just don't see this pattern breaking down like that. Seems way too stubborn. EPS mean will have none of it. Would be interesting to see how the 1954 heat run finally broke since its November was so cold - measurable snow in some parts of the forum area that month. If anything remotely similar happened to those runs today...I would laugh about it for years to come. Anyway, that is is in Lala land and rightly so. DT's video in the pattern discussion thread does discuss a potential cold shot around October 15th thanks to the MJO. I don't think it has staying power, but it would provide a welcome shot of seasonal to cooler air.
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What the 12z GFS just did was banter worthy. Give that d10+ a look. We can at least dream right! Even the lake effect snow machine fires up!
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You should be good to go. I am kicking myself for not putting out a late season crop of beans. They would be loving this weather. My cool weather crops are doing OK despite the record heat. Maybe the days getting shorter and longer nights is giving them just enough of a break.
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Yeah, I agree. I thought the Nino look was going to diminish more than it has based on last month's trajectory and outlook, but the recent positive look might actually hold through winter. Definitely has cooled off in the eastern ENSO regions, but still likely to produce a weak Nino signal, maybe a Modoki. The SOI seems to agree the Nino effects are still there, because it is really tanking. Might be one of these winters where the weak El Nino signal gradually fades...
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Thanks. Any thoughts after looking at that? Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip. Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern? Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip. @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all. Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring.
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Thought I would kick off the fall season banter thread. Definitely noticing leaves changing, especially along creeks and rivers. Seeing sycamores, maples, and honey locust beginning to change. Some of this is due to heat stress for sure, but definitely getting to be about the time that leaves begin to turn due to the days getting shorter. Last year it took forever for the leaves to drop. I suspect they are off the trees much earlier this year...that is not saying much since last year I only had about eight weeks between the end of leaf season and the beginning of mowing season.
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@jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man. Another good find. Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible. I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day. A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2. What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps. The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well. Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter. I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues. One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then. Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth. Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package? If so, how did it look for our area.
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Cover crop consisting of rye, winter wrye, winter peas, crimson clover, and vetch are growing like they are on steroids. Probably will turn that under in December or very early spring. Mustard greens are up. That stuff has some pop(spicy). I am also trying some Pak Choi this fall. It is purple and green. I am a big fan of William Woys Weaver who is known as someone trying to preserve heirlooms with great taste. My fall lettuce is from his collection at Baker's Heirloom seeds. Hopefully the cool weather stuff doesn't fry this week in the heat. When all of that is harvested later during the fall, I will plant those rows with winter wheat. Trying to get the soil ready for next spring as it has been fallow for twelve months.
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With no sharp gradient(Typhoon Tip) in SST temps on those maps above...I agree, all bets are off. Also, Isotherm has talked about how the warm Pacific created a really strong jet that just plowed into the Northwest this past winter. Again, evidence of deep mountain snows in western WY and western MT revealed that. This winter, tough call as not many analogs fit the Pacific basin wide warmth. The MJO also was abnormally strong last winter along with an atypical SOI. I am still leaning towards my original thinking for winter which I wrote in mid-June somewhere in the Spring/Summer thread....but still a long way to go and things can/will change. For a time last month, I thought we might actually go to a La Nina State which would have tanked my early forecast on the spot. As of now, it looks a bit more like a Nada on the weakly positive side - but a funky setup as some Pacific equatorial regions will be almost Nino and some almost Nina. As D'Aleo mentioned, need to get through hurricane and cyclone season and then see what the SSTs look like.
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@Stovepipe, I put my cover crop in the ground on Sunday and it was up on Tuesday morning!!! 36 hour germination rate....I have never seen anything like it. I think the warm ground temps and steady rain in combination were just about perfect. Some of the stuff(whatever is in the grass family in that mix) today is ~2" out to the ground.
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Impressive and thanks for the information and the share. That is A LOT of compost volume standing there.
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Yeah, I was worried about that vetch...I already have it in my garden anyway! LOL. 120!? Wow. I assume you are hosting the TN Valley Wx Spaghetti dinner with that much tomato action! Keep us updated on the hemp situation. How do you market that? I am assuming that is the for the oil which is a big time product right now. Hey, at least you won't have to can all that hemp. Definitely going to need a pic of 10-12 foot plants!
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@Stovepipe, my garden remained fallow this year. Going to plant a fall cover crop which I have not done prior. Going to roll with a mix and see how it works. Likely will order some garlic as well...was awesome a couple of years ago. Here is what I am using...thoughts? Hey, and how has your gradient been this summer. I am glad to not be watering through this heat! https://www.johnnyseeds.com/farm-seed/cover-crop-mixes/fall-green-manure/fall-green-manure-mix-cover-crop-seed-2613.36.html Probably going to add some fall salad stuff and definitely some garlic.
