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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The odds of everything being exactly correct are very low. We can get snows during bad patterns and miss during good patterns. Many of the very big snows in the eastern Valley during March I am willing to bet occurred during -NAOs. That is unlikely to be as true for points to our west. But I do add again, rarely are things perfect. We don't have to have multiple things in our favor...just a few things that work really well such as a -NAO or +PNA and/or a broad, full latitude block which is my favorite. What we need is a general pattern look. Also, the -QBO is definitely correlated w -NAOs and very snowy winters in NE TN. The tricky thing about the QBO is there is a difference in QBO that has just turned negative and is falling and one that is rising though still negative. Off the top of my head, a -QBO that is rising near neutral can be very warm during winter...but double check that. The best QBO is one that drops during late fall or early winter like we had....ENSO is also a big factor which is currently in transition.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Oh, we want a locked in -NAO in NE TN, unless you are in a place for upslope snow. Otherwise, we need Miller As on my side of the Valley. -NAOs slow the pattern enough to produce them. One thing to keep in mind is that the Plateau westward usually requires a different look and they do indeed need the Pacific to cooperate. We need the Atlantic over here. Crazy, huh? The mediocre values IMO are because the NAO begins to decay as you mention. Most storms occur as the values begin to rise after bottoming out like your original maps. It has to be strong before good patterns emerge for us. The Weeklies have the NAO barely hitting neutral during the second half of March and early April. -NAOs are more important for E TN because we can actually catch the fetch off the Atlantic for big coastal...middle and west usually do not. Great work!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Here is the d10-15 mean on the 0z EPS. For comparison...not exact but interesting.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Also, notice that area of BN heights just east of HI...that is also a nice marker.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Great work! Nice information and graphic. Looks to me like a -EPO ridge w some blocking over the Davis Straits is key...AND that the storms don't necessarily happen until the block matures and erodes just a bit.
  6. Carvers Gap
    John that is an awesome list, man. I just wanted to add that. That is just one of the many things that makes our forum awesome.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Use the big storms IMHO. Looking good.
  8. Carvers Gap
    You know, I wonder how the -QBO is influenced during a transitional ENSO state. Usually it is money for cold in this area and is closely tied to high latitude blocking. I wonder if the -QBO is enhanced or muted during a transitional state?
  9. Carvers Gap
    Great memory. I was at UT. You know, the WATE guys sort of insinuate that they missed on snow totals....but they nailed that forecast from almost a week out. IMO, it was a real success of computer modeling. They may have missed on totals, but I remember waking up on Saturday knowing there was going to be a blizzard. They did really well. I grew up watching Johnny. Always enjoyed his work. Some great old-school anchors from both Knoxville and TRI that I remember. He is one of them. I always enjoyed Bill Williams of WBIR as well...He did not do the weather, but just delivered the news very well.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Coming up on the 25th anniversary of the Blizzard of '93....Link to WATE anniversary coverage from yesterday. Hard to believe it has been that long ago. http://www.wate.com/the-blizzard-of-93
  11. Carvers Gap
    Weathertree...I am seeing some hints of a Nino developing. Jeff mentioned there was some evidence that a developing Nino could reduce the severe season spring threats. As for next winter though, the models are generally really bad with ENSO IMO. I think they called for a weak Nino this winter and then backed off??? I think right now it will be tough to know the strength or placement of anomalies for next winter. Generally by early fall we start to get some idea what the ENSO will look like.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Great thread. One of my favorites. So are we looking at a La Nada w Nino tendencies for the summer? Would be fine by me!
  13. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if this moves towards a weak to moderate Nino by next fall. Way out there and ENSO predictions can be fickle.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Will do.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Always an informative thread. We need the enso thread as well, Jax. It looks interesting over the next year or so.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Great stuff, everyone.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Did you use a filter or filter on a computer? Great shot!
  18. Carvers Gap
    John and knoxtron, what did you all use to get those pics. Awesome.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Refrigerator pickles. Aged them for two days on the counter and then refrigerated for two weeks. This pic is before the aging process. 15 pints of these... Also, that is an Italian canning tomato.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Awesome pics, you all.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Not the best. Can't wait to see some filtered shots. This is w an iphone w glasses over the lens. LOL.
  22. Carvers Gap
  23. Carvers Gap
    Tortoise thread....Slow and stead wins the race! Hey, it may get cloudy but at least we know w this event that it will 100% happen....and not have to follow 40 straight runs only to see it go OTS or to NC or to Ohio or just dissipate. LOL!!!!
  24. Carvers Gap
    Pretty awesome to follow a thread for two years and be almost there...
  25. Carvers Gap
    I will snap a few pics. Going to make an old shoe box viewer. Not sure I posted this, but I may have....we inadvertently took a pic of a partial eclipse while in Sanibel a few years back. The sunset was outstanding that evening. We forgot about the eclipse. Later, I saw an article about the eclipse. It jogged my memory. I hustled over to the computer to look at the pics...and there it was. Clear as day. What are the odds? My wife is the family photographer by the way. I almost always work from memory. I would just like to see some experiences of others from the event. The zoom feature along s computer filters allowed a pretty clear look considering we were not trying to photograph it.
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