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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z operationals and ensembles pretty much bone dry for NE TN with the exception of maybe getting total of a .1". I have not received rain for 21 days. If we go 16 more, that is going to get pretty sketchy. The likelihood of me having 0.00" of precip for September is a possibility....have to think we at least get something. The heat ridge on the EPS is brutal to the point it is not even worth talking about. The operational does have some very brief cool downs followed by more heat. Nothing like dry frontal passages.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I linked the Wildlands fire danger map below - there are several variations of threats and data on the left menu bar. Plenty to look at and interesting for sure. I am not aware of any significant fires at the moment. We have had just enough rainfall to keep the worst conditions at bay. What we don't want are high winds to go with the high temps...dries things out in a hurry. Though we are not out West and our fire season does not really have a ton of similarities to theirs...sometimes wet springs can accentuate the following fire season or two due to more growth(fuel) than average. I agree with Jeff that the danger is not there at the moment, but the precip forecast is bleak. Total accumulate precip for the 16day noon run of the GFS is .2-.3 for most of NE TN with a few spots modeled to get .3-.4. Keep in mind that IMBY we have already gone twenty days with no appreciable rainfall(might have had one day with sprinkles that barely did more than stir the dust). If the GFS is right(LOL...how many times have we said that in our lifetimes), that would be almost a month straight with no rainfall. The CMC through 240 is about the same with just a few hundredths forecast for NE TN. Thank goodness for replenished aquifers or this would be pretty bad. Low humidity with record or near record temps.... https://www.wfas.net/index.php/fire-danger-rating-fire-potential--danger-32/north-america-fire-danger-map/92-sfwpinterface
  3. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if that is driven by the tropics(GOM origin)? A couple of recent runs of the GFS have also been trying to leave a cutoff over the nation's midsection as well which slowly meanders eastward. The last week of September is a slight relaxation of the SER pattern. At the end of the last pattern relaxation in August, Dorian went through the Bahamas. So maybe, something is getting pulled in there. Another good find, Powell. Hope we see some precip from it. Definitely need it.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Good info. While not as dry as the fires that burned Gatlinburg(as that resulted from a summer long drought), it pretty alarming how dry things are right now and after a very wet spring. I guess the heat and low humidity is the culprit. WJHL I think had passed along the danger of brush fires. These really dry falls are bad business because there is so much dry fuel in the forest. The trees are also parched. I think John was saying that the northern Plateau is in better shape. Seems like it is the valley floor eastward to the Smokies. The only time my yard has looked worse was during that fall a few years back.
  5. Carvers Gap
    In all seriousness, if we don't get some rain there could be serious fire issues in the eastern valley....low humidity, not a ton of precip recently, and record warm temps.
  6. Carvers Gap
    You should be good to go. I am kicking myself for not putting out a late season crop of beans. They would be loving this weather. My cool weather crops are doing OK despite the record heat. Maybe the days getting shorter and longer nights is giving them just enough of a break.
  7. Carvers Gap
    What was your final high for the day?
  8. Carvers Gap
    Sitting at 19 days straight without measurable precip IMBY. The airport received some late last week...not here. With all of this record heat and not precip...we are back to some rough looking lawns.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS mean dumped every bit of the cold into the northern Rockies ad nauseam. It is a never ending pattern. I will say, I am not really a model basher...just frustrated with the relentless heat we are experiencing right now. It is far worse than anything that we experienced all summer relative to norms. Normal high tomorrow is 79 at TRI. Going to approach the record of 92 set in 1954...high is forecast to be 91. Looking forward to the "cool down" this week with highs in the mid-80s which are still 5-7 degrees above normal. Most years we would be complaining about highs in the mid-80s at this time of year...all relative I guess. One last nugget. The average temperature(high and lows averaged together was 75.2 for August. It is currently 76 for September. The average high for September is a whopping 90.2. During August it was only 87.2. I mean at some point this trajectory has to go down, right? At this point I have to laugh...I am going to be freezing my tail off when it finally gets cold. Maybe when the wavelengths change-up we will catch a break.
  10. Carvers Gap
    It is crazy that the same head fakes from last winter(admittedly haven't been watching much since April)are still presenting themselves in modeling. There was significant cooling signaled on modeling for this upcoming weekend(in the day 10-15)...likely to be maybe to verify as maybe one or two seasonal days at best(maybe not that), but mostly a miss. Lately, the Euro seems less inclined to take the bait of faux deepening troughs in the East....but it seems to miss the cold in the northern Plains. The GFS/GEFS...whew...has a pretty bad cold bias in the d10-15 range. I do know that d10-15 is sketchy at best, but at one point that time frame would give us a hint on modeling. Not so much right now. But yeah, you called it late last week...we'd be lucky to get back to the upper 80s or 90. Seems like warm fall temps in place are very tough to break these days, and that is sort of Nina-esque. We haven't had more than a sprinkle IMBY since the third week in August. East of I-26 has received a storm or two. Think the airport got .68(?) last week. Anyway, these warm temps and bone dry conditions have some Nina qualities here. With the SOI in the tank, sort of surprising there isn't more precip. Maybe we can steal some rain from a tropical system...or this might be a pretty rough ride here with extreme temps and not much rainfall. I do think when this flips...going to flip super cold(vs norms) similar to last November(no idea when this year) with not much transition in between it now appears. Until then...the furnace beckons.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Whoa!!!!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Beginning to look more and more like the extreme heat will exit by next weekend, but as we have seen for the several weeks...the strong cold fronts which are modeled to form long-lasting eastern troughs are tempered down to but mere seasonal frontal passages. I am not ready to throw in the towel yet, but my confidence is much lower that the ridge will hold in the West. As with the last cool off in August, nice temps potentially will be in place for the last week of the month of September with hints in LR ensembles that the trough over the northern Rockies will again return. But let's see what happens...at some point this pattern is going to change. When it does, modeling will likely try to perpetuate the old pattern and show a faux return of the old pattern. That said, the eastern ridge just really wants to return every, single time it has been knocked down for the past couple of nine months(excluding a few breaks in the pattern). The longer these AN temps persist, the likelihood of having very little fall increases...meaning a flip to much cooler temps at some point. When? Not sure. Let's see if modeling picks up those strong cold fronts again...sometimes modeling will lose a pattern only to regain it as it gets closer. This is the year of reversing bad mojo...the Jayhawks are doing their part. Now, if the wx pattern and the Vols will just do theirs!!!!
  13. Carvers Gap
    That is crazy hot! I went back and looked at those analogs after you posted this. Looks like a pretty big drought in the south/southern Plains centered around eastern TX, Oklahoma, and the GC states if I am remembering the map correctly. We have managed to pull this year's heat off with above normal rainfall. That pattern flipped to a cold November during 1954. Temps were -4F to -6F BN over E TN for November after that heat dissipated. I will freeze my tail off if that happens.
  14. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, I thought the Euro Weeklies from last night looked fairly decent from the last week of September through October? I hadn't looked at them until now. Looks like some seasonal temps at least...OR are they just pushing back seasonal temps ad nauseam?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Indeed we have set a fourth record high in a row at TRI. As of the 2:53PM reporting cycle, 95F was recorded. It breaks the old record of 94F. As a Tennessee football fan, it is never wise to ask, "It can't get any worse than this, right?" But, come-on...enough already with the heat! LOL. I just wonder how many records Sept 1954 held originally...have to think a few have been broken? Nine still standing...impressive. Well, in Sept 2019 we now hold four so far. I will have to check next week as there is one more push early in the week of hot temps.
  16. Carvers Gap
    One more degree to go and we hit an extraordinary fourth record high in a row. Meanwhile, the areas above 7,000' feet out West saw their first snow of the season...*sigh*. 1954 has nine record highs for September for TRI including the all-time high for the month, and they also had four days in a row of record heat at least. Nine...
  17. Carvers Gap
    We have officially recorded three straight record highs. If we hit 94 today, we tie a fourth. Can't be many times that we have hit four straight at TRI...15 straight days without any recorded rainfall at TRI though there were some sprinkles in the area yesterday.
  18. Carvers Gap
    This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations. We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here. We actually use those more than you know. Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak. Heat index is 96 out there. Feels like a horribly hot summer day. Just brutal. Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those. We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break. Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks. LOL.
  19. Carvers Gap
    You all have had it good. Not sure why NE TN has been catching the brunt of the heat this summer. We have set two consecutive record highs prior to today at TRI. The forecast high of 95 today will smash the old record if it verifies. Tomorrow's forecast high will be close depending on which point and click forecast are verifies - barring any storms. So, likely three straight records with a 50/50 chance for a fourth straight. Hopefully, once we get to next weekend...this extreme stuff is off the table for a long time.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I agree. I thought the Nino look was going to diminish more than it has based on last month's trajectory and outlook, but the recent positive look might actually hold through winter. Definitely has cooled off in the eastern ENSO regions, but still likely to produce a weak Nino signal, maybe a Modoki. The SOI seems to agree the Nino effects are still there, because it is really tanking. Might be one of these winters where the weak El Nino signal gradually fades...
  21. Carvers Gap
    Thanks. Any thoughts after looking at that? Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip. Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern? Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip. @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all. Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Thought I would kick off the fall season banter thread. Definitely noticing leaves changing, especially along creeks and rivers. Seeing sycamores, maples, and honey locust beginning to change. Some of this is due to heat stress for sure, but definitely getting to be about the time that leaves begin to turn due to the days getting shorter. Last year it took forever for the leaves to drop. I suspect they are off the trees much earlier this year...that is not saying much since last year I only had about eight weeks between the end of leaf season and the beginning of mowing season.
  23. Carvers Gap
    @jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man. Another good find. Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible. I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day. A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2. What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps. The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well. Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter. I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues. One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then. Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth. Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package? If so, how did it look for our area.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Nice to see the 12z GEFS, GEPS, and EPS Mean are in very good agreement that the eastern ridge/western trough will reverse. Whether that verifies, no idea. Still in the d10+range, but you can see on the Euro OP the beginning of the eastern ridge exiting w the western ridge beginning to form late in the run. In other words, the operational models almost have the transition within d10. Looks like(if this is actual a real opportunity) that the cold will dive into the eastern flank of the Rockies and drive SE. Why am I happy about this? We do not want the persistent pattern of the past 10 months to linger, and I am just plain tired of summer. Plus, I think tracking those first cold fronts of fall are pretty interesting. Bring on fall!!!
  25. Carvers Gap
    See, I am wondering if the CANSIPS is in error? What do you think? Seems like it is going to have a tough time cooling off that much in the ENSO regions and its overall global ocean temps(especially the Pacific basin) again look overly cool for the second straight run. I hadn't seen that map...good share. Right now, just hoping the ensemble means from this AM are on to something with breaking the overall pattern which results in a western trough at least temporarily if not permanently. I think you used the word "crap shoot" the other day...I am pretty much in that camp for December as this warm fall is going to be tough to shake. That said, I still like a weakly positive Nada.
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