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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Going to switch over to the meteorological fall thread from here on out. Here is just a quick nugget from the September 1 CANSIPS. The CANSIPS season model, which has done fairly well during the past several years(been very warm w maybe even a bias towards warm), goes normal for September(likely a bust right off the bat), warm for October, and then slowly brings in seasonal temps(some even BN) through August of next year. I keep saying that we are way overdue for a pattern change w the current pattern being in place since almost December of last year. That pattern has been BN temps in the northern Plains w a stout area of AN temps over the SE. It is always good to note that models have a tendency to jump the gun on pattern changes. Last year, the flip switched right after a very cold November. Models last winter were notorious for trying to bring back winter, but it never did. With the QBO now in a steady decline, I think that has to be factored in now as an indicator that is changing "phase." That is a good sign I think. It is just one model and we are about a month away before I truly start taking any of these models seriously...and even then still cast a wary eye at their solutions. The biggest takeaway is progressively cooler temps over the eastern 1/3 of the country beginning in November. The Weeklies have hinted that a change might be in the works and then pull back(might just be the same reoccurring error from last winter...might not). I do think when the pattern ends, it actually might be foreshadowed by a couple of cold shots and then flip quickly. Pattern change timeframe predictions are fraught with infamous busts...so I am not calling a time, just sharing output from one model. Lastly, the Canadian may or may not be correct with its SST depiction for winter. Also of note, the Euro seasonal is warmer over the East w a similar progression as the CANSIPS but slower by roughly a month. It has a fairly warm December which skews as a SER when in reality it is a progressively cooler pattern each month. Dare I even say it after the infamous fail last winter...the backloaded winter is depicted on it. So for good vibes and because I don't trust the Euro at range right now and because I like the cooler model...I am just showing the wish cast CANSIPS.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Cover crop consisting of rye, winter wrye, winter peas, crimson clover, and vetch are growing like they are on steroids. Probably will turn that under in December or very early spring. Mustard greens are up. That stuff has some pop(spicy). I am also trying some Pak Choi this fall. It is purple and green. I am a big fan of William Woys Weaver who is known as someone trying to preserve heirlooms with great taste. My fall lettuce is from his collection at Baker's Heirloom seeds. Hopefully the cool weather stuff doesn't fry this week in the heat. When all of that is harvested later during the fall, I will plant those rows with winter wheat. Trying to get the soil ready for next spring as it has been fallow for twelve months.
  3. Carvers Gap
    With no sharp gradient(Typhoon Tip) in SST temps on those maps above...I agree, all bets are off. Also, Isotherm has talked about how the warm Pacific created a really strong jet that just plowed into the Northwest this past winter. Again, evidence of deep mountain snows in western WY and western MT revealed that. This winter, tough call as not many analogs fit the Pacific basin wide warmth. The MJO also was abnormally strong last winter along with an atypical SOI. I am still leaning towards my original thinking for winter which I wrote in mid-June somewhere in the Spring/Summer thread....but still a long way to go and things can/will change. For a time last month, I thought we might actually go to a La Nina State which would have tanked my early forecast on the spot. As of now, it looks a bit more like a Nada on the weakly positive side - but a funky setup as some Pacific equatorial regions will be almost Nino and some almost Nina. As D'Aleo mentioned, need to get through hurricane and cyclone season and then see what the SSTs look like.
  4. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, I put my cover crop in the ground on Sunday and it was up on Tuesday morning!!! 36 hour germination rate....I have never seen anything like it. I think the warm ground temps and steady rain in combination were just about perfect. Some of the stuff(whatever is in the grass family in that mix) today is ~2" out to the ground.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Today has been pretty much awesome. Cool breeze out of the east w a nice morning to head out to church. Can't ask for much better in August.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Impressive and thanks for the information and the share. That is A LOT of compost volume standing there.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I was worried about that vetch...I already have it in my garden anyway! LOL. 120!? Wow. I assume you are hosting the TN Valley Wx Spaghetti dinner with that much tomato action! Keep us updated on the hemp situation. How do you market that? I am assuming that is the for the oil which is a big time product right now. Hey, at least you won't have to can all that hemp. Definitely going to need a pic of 10-12 foot plants!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Still looks like a nice shot of cool air is going to be here around Labor Day weekend. Some divergence in modeling(understandably at that range) if the ridge in the East will return or be completely beat down post-Labor Day. I am probably 50/50 on that. Given our recent Fall patterns, the heat likely returns. With that big ridge(EPO?)popped over the western Pacific, it likely opens the door for at least some cool air to push periodically into the SE after Labor Day. It will depend on the amplitude of the downstream trough though. A higher amplitude trough puts the cooler air into the nation's mid-section...a broader trough at least gets seasonal to the spine of the Apps in regards to the post-Labor Day pattern. Basically, the skinny is that the ridge that has been so dominant of late is going to get pushed out to sea or at least to the coast by Labor Day. The question is whether the ridge returns to the East...sometimes modeling is correct in bringing back the original pattern and sometimes it is incorrect in trying to perpetuate the old pattern. The 0z EPS wants to have the ridge rebound while the GEFS is less enthusiastic...both within the bias of each model so who knows! Keep an eye on the ENSO thread, some good stuff in there. Also, Joe D'Aleo is definitely kicking around the idea that a turn to a BN pattern for the EC may return sometime in late Sept or early October. I tend to agree just based on some digging that I have done. But with the crazy Typoon Tip gradient in the Pacific, it is literally like trying to find your way through the dark...
  9. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, my garden remained fallow this year. Going to plant a fall cover crop which I have not done prior. Going to roll with a mix and see how it works. Likely will order some garlic as well...was awesome a couple of years ago. Here is what I am using...thoughts? Hey, and how has your gradient been this summer. I am glad to not be watering through this heat! https://www.johnnyseeds.com/farm-seed/cover-crop-mixes/fall-green-manure/fall-green-manure-mix-cover-crop-seed-2613.36.html Probably going to add some fall salad stuff and definitely some garlic.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Fingers crossed that a nice little pattern change is being shown on the ensembles(GEFS, EPS) this morning. Maybe the first cold front of the season around Labor Day? Pattern change potentially arrives with that front as well. Big ridge goes up over the West and at the very least knocks down the heat over much of the East with maybe even coastal areas getting involved over time. Still 10+ days out there so everyone knows the rules(huge grain of salt). The 6z GFS would be pretty awesome for the first full football Saturday of the year. The potential for normal or slightly BN is something that a few folks have been kicking around for a week or two, so let's hope that comes to fruition...meaning fall like temps.
  11. Carvers Gap
    JB shared the Euro Weeklies through September...about as warm over NA as one can get in a LR model. Looking at Jax's Jan 2013 model and I thought it looked similar. Check out 2019 so far over the Lower 48. Pretty uncanny resemblance regarding the placement of warmth...also note that one is a 500 map and the other surface temp anomalies. In some ways, I think that pattern has been in place for about eight months already.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Try this...let me know if it works. If not, I will grab some snippets. BTW, I am not completely sure what the ENSO is up to...I have a pretty detailed post in the ENSO thread. Jax has some good stuff their recently from the JAMSTEC. Hey, I now have access to Euro seasonal stuff!
  13. Carvers Gap
    It is free if you have Facebook. Just search for WxSouth. You know me...I will write a 5,000 word essay before teasing you all. LOL. I just didn't expound since it wasn't a pay site. Skinny...Thinks that a weak La Nina will be good...mentions TN as a being in a good spot. All speculation he freely admits. D'Aleo had a great post on WxBell today regarding the 93-94 analog going into fall. Thinks that OND will be BN in terms of temps. Also thinks that the cooler temps forecast in the LR over the northern Plains will eventually build into an eastern trough that becomes a mid-late fall stable pattern. I am tired of the heat...so I am freely stating that I am wish casting for a some cool fall weather...or at least just dream about it.
  14. Carvers Gap
    So in honor of me saying that analogs are likely untrustworthy as we approach the winter season, let's look at where we are today...or close to it. Oddly, I have tried to remember the summer of '93 and can't remember it. Well, there is a reason for that. I wasn't in North America! I was in the Middle East all summer(non-military). What I do remember is news of the Mississippi flooding. Anyway, I can find a few similar times to where we are now in terms of the ENSO cycle. 93-94, 95-96, and 05-06. 95-96 had more of a La Nina raging by August than now...so I am going to discard that for the moment. However, the summers of 93 and 05 looked fairly familiar in terms of the actually look of the SST temps vs comparing graphs. August 12, 2019 August 1993 August 16, 2005 Here are the composite temps for May through July for 1993/2005... and here is the precip map. Here is 2019... Plenty of similarities on the analog composites. 2019 has surface temps in similar areas but warmer. 2019 has AN precip in the nation's heartland but displaced further south and east. Both winters were wildly different but yielded normal to slightly BN temps over the TN Valley for winter. Where they were significantly different was over the northern Plains during the following winters. I didn't include that composite of the two analogs because they are so different that the composite map actually does a misrepresents the two winters. 05-06 is wildly warm over the Norther Plains and 93-94 is cold...almost opposites in those areas. That said, again, the SE is normal/cool during both. addendum: One can also not on the SST maps that the overall look of the 2019 Pacific map is warmer and is washing out the gradient in the northern hemisphere and might render moot the downstream ENSO implications over NA. Reference to Isotherm and TyphoonTip again.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Good stuff, Jax. IDK about the JAMSTEC. That is another big change in continuity for it. I generally like that model, but it struggled last winter as did the Euro Weeklies. If I had to bet, I think the regions closer to SA will be slightly BN in terms of SST and the regions to the West will be slightly AN. That seems to be a commonality at least for Fall on modeling. So, what I can't decide is whether that has a Modoki look or if it is a week Nina. I am beginning to subscribe to the idea that Robert from WxSouth is floating, and that is that typical ENSO patterns are not producing correlating results in relation to past analogs. I think the gradient will be the issue now in terms of SST(giving a nod to TyphoonTip). Pretty much the entire Pac basin is atypically warm. Now, Isotherm just posted(maybe on the main board now) about how the over-amped Pac may likely produce a very active Pacific jet. We saw that last winter as it just hammered the northern Rockies. I have never seen so much snow in my life(visited in late March last year)....they still had snow up to the second floors of their buildings on April 1st in West Yellowstone, MT. So, I wonder if we see another year with a very active Pacific jet. What I don't know is how the cooler water near SA is going to impact that fire hose. Does it buckle the jet(if so, where?) or does it just allow a zonal flow as this winter's norm? Also the warmer temps in the GOA are going to have to be reckoned with. Even if analogs could be used, seems like very few match the warm basin look along with the very warm water in the GOA. I have seen 93-94 kicked around and maybe 14-15...but do those analogs even work as there is very little gradient in the Pacific right now. I still think the mean trough is east of the Rockies(maybe up against the foothills on its westward extent) and is west of the Apps(maybe barely). I also think this winter is going to be similar to 17-18 in that it has extremes that tend to flip back and forth during winter. Hey, and great thread as always. Thanks for sharing those maps. Definitely not a boring ENSO look as it is sort of wild looking. I suspect we are in new territory right now in terms of the ENSO. This is when I would like to have an atmospheric physics degree(without having to put in all of that work to get it...LOL).
  16. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler pretty interesting to see the storms roll off Bays tonight. Looks like the winter time snow deal that you have studied some. The animation is pretty cool. Maybe a little lift from Bays Mtn which sits at 2300’ and maybe some lift from the industrial heat dome?
  17. Carvers Gap
    Robert has a post on WXSouth FB about different scenarios regarding the upcoming fall and winter...is a good write-up I think.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Ventrice on Twitter is saying there is an issue with the CANSIPS August run...they are working on a fix per the MA sub-forum.
  19. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Yeah, I probably should have looked at that a bit more closely.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Good find. Interesting that it has an Nina for an SST and a trough in the East at 500. Weak La Nina's are not always bad in my neck of the woods. Strong Nina's are pretty much terrible. The weak ones produce some serious extremes in temps. About the only thing that limits snow amounts are years when weak La Ninas produce long spells of precip-less weeks. I do wonder if the atmosphere will experiences a very mild hangover from the El Nino early during the winter and then(Niña...edit) lock-in during late winter. The warm water near the GOA/NE PAC should cause an interesting PDO index. As mentioned in the pattern discussion thread, this year may not have a ton of analogs. Does the Cansips work with an analog package at that range? Interestingly, the Cansips has a fairly warm bias IMHO. So, that is an interesting 500 look. It would be pretty wild if the West gets a perfect setup and the cold goes East...would balance out last year where they got a ton of snow during a perfect set-up for the East.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Again, I would encourage everyone to find the comments (I think it was TyphoonTip) regarding gradient, El Nino, and this past winter. Short story...the Pacific basin as a whole was warmer than normal during this past winter. The El Nino was weak. That created very little gradient, and the atmosphere had some La Nada/Nina characteristics. There needs to be a somewhat sharper ocean temp differential between the Nino area and the rest of the basin. Add in the active MJO(strong Nina characteristic), there is room for plenty of discussion regarding both this past and upcoming winter. Jax, am I reading correctly that the JAMSTEC is slightly south of neutral? Interesting early look there. Have you seen any other LR thoughts on ENSO for next winter? Jax already knows this, but for the new folks....ENSO can be really fickle at this range regarding next winter. We might get some hints with its summer state, but ENSO models aren't super accurate until November when looking at winter. Still, it is nice to look at LR modeling and is the only way to get better. Thanks for the share, Jax. If this next winter is similar to this past one...going to be plenty of surprises(not sure good or bad)!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Went to go running this AM...my route was flooded again. The water was not even that muddy. The base state is now basically out of its banks when it rains. And now...we head into the actual heart of the spring rainy season.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the share. Great information. Please keep us updated.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the rainy pattern continues....If this winter has shown us anything, we need to question things if a "dry spell" shows up in modeling. Not sure that we get the massive amounts from last weekend, but still appears to be a steady dose for the next couple of weeks at least. Honestly, when I start to squirm would be if we somehow manage to tap a tropical feed from a tropical storm or hurricane early in the tropical season. Hopefully, we get enough time(before early summer) to allow the water management agencies to get our reservoirs down enough to withstand another healthy round of rain. Very early in the season to have this much water. I feel certain some folks are working long but productive hours to keep tabs on this. They have done a really good, commendable job so far. Just need to buy some time so that we can maintain a bit of wiggle room.
  25. Carvers Gap
    MRX with a great write-up about the event as it relates to E TN.... https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite
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