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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, I put my cover crop in the ground on Sunday and it was up on Tuesday morning!!! 36 hour germination rate....I have never seen anything like it. I think the warm ground temps and steady rain in combination were just about perfect. Some of the stuff(whatever is in the grass family in that mix) today is ~2" out to the ground.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Bout to close out the summer of 2019 and reach meteorological fall...looks like summer will return with a fury during mid-September as the nice, nice break from the hot temps will continue through next week when another heat ridge will likely return. Looks like my call for a nice football Saturday is going to go to crap as it will be get hot even though sandwiched between some really nice weather. Overall, not too excited about what I am seeing beginning in about 10-12 days...return to potentially very hot temperatures if the 12z EPS mean is to be believed. Even the GEFS with its incredibly cold bias shows some warm returning about that time frame. Pretty frustrating past ten days right now as both models have developed some nasty bias problems since I was looking more closely last spring. The EPS and Weeklies are biased very warm - more than usual. The new GFS is almost as ridiculously cold. Could be a very tough winter forecasting if those trends continue. And hey, the closer this hurricane gets without actually reaching the area...the hotter it will get. MBY has finally turned green again. I deplore hot fall temps... Either way, it is football time in Tennessee and around the country. Some nice games on TV for the next five days beginning tonight. Enjoy!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Some of the latest hurricane guidance brings Dorian int the eastern mountains of TN and western mountains of NC. Probably just need to keep an eye on it. Still far enough out there that any operational solution at that range(and knowing that tropical systems are notoriously fickly to track w that trajectory) has to be seen as one of many possible outcomes. Still, might bring some rains into the spine of the Apps, and that can be a crap shoot as to how bad it gets up there...think Opal.
  4. Carvers Gap
    We received a lot of rain last week at my house thankfully even to the point that flooding was beginning to be on the table. I think SE KY was just listed as abnormally dry. I tried to get the key to the map on the pic, but the pic was just too big. So, it likely looks worse than it is. I am not sure what the criteria is for abnormally dry either(maybe they are pulling ground moisture or foliage stress via satellite?). I know that July and early August dried out the ground quickly here. My yard went from a beautiful green to just brown in about three weeks. It looks much better this morning other than the grassy areas that died back to the heat and dry weather. My backyard is just fried...south facing slope that just was baked. I know we have had a lot of wind out of the east during the past month which might be a slight downslope that is drying things out even with rain. KTRI was BN for rainfall July, but received about 2" last week which may actually get us above normal ironically. Temps for both months are about two degrees AN which is pretty warm considering it is already the warmest time of the year. Looks like there was a 3-4 week period with very little rain from mid-July to mid-August. I think it even likely the airport received a tad more in July due to some pop-up storms in that area. I will see if I can find a Kingsport rain gauge near house. Other than this weekend, we have had a lot of sunny days, even when we received rain...so maybe that is the culprit. High temps, while warm, were not excessive - maybe even erroneously hyped via the media at times. However, there were a couple of weeks where the "Real Feel" was very warm.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Temps in the 40s...I will take them. GFS has had some fairly chilly runs in the East since that 12z run. Bringing stout cold fronts into the Rockies and then eastward. The EPS is similar but warmer. EPS has been trying to pop an eastern ridge late in the run, but having difficulty holding on to that solution. Main feature is a strong ridge in the western ridge reaching into the western GOA. If that ridge pops and holds, probably would get a solution similar to the GFS/GEFS where we get periodic cool/cold fronts which would be awesome given the perpetual heat that we have experienced during many early falls for the past few years.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Today has been pretty much awesome. Cool breeze out of the east w a nice morning to head out to church. Can't ask for much better in August.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS at 384...yes, please. Heck , sign me up for the entire run.
  8. Carvers Gap
    What is going to be a pain is that -NAO is likely going to go into a positive phase soon. Will be interesting to see the QBO at the end of this month. If it starts to fall at some point between now and December, that is a very good sign.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Great post, Jax. What is crazy is how wet that the year started...some places were close to near records as John noted earlier by mid-year...also as noted on Jax's map above. I mean we have a thread regarding concerns of full TVA reservoirs from spring. What is even crazier is how quickly things have dried out. MBY has thankfully received some decent rain this week. Maybe I need to talk about how dry the pattern looks more often(like washing my car). Here is the drought monitor map for the US. What is notable is drought developing around the TN river corridor in northern Alabama and some moderate to extreme drought developing in central Alabama. Would be great to get a report from someone in that area. Until the rain from the last couple of days, my yard was beginning to look about as bad as it has ever looked. I think it likely that the cooling SSTs in the easter equatorial Pacific along with seasonal temperance of the late summer precip pattern have likely "turned off the spigot." We really have been in a similar pattern since early December of last year with some periodic moderation. I "think" we are about to see a fairly significant shift in the atmospheric weather pattern over NA as evidenced by the reduction in precip in relation to SSTs over the SE. Obviously, part of that pattern change will simply be a response to the changing of seasons and the march towards winter. A quick note on the Euro Weeklies...I had noticed this and JB mentioned it today. They are absent of any cold air in the LR...like none over most of NA. They have missed the cool intrusions into the nation's mid-sections. They simply don't appear to be able to see cool air past about week 2 or 3. This is even more than their normal bias. The CFS is cold, and likely overly much. Anyway, the 500 pattern on the Weeklies does imply that a trough might develop over the EC by early October w a corresponding trough just east of HI. I wonder if the Labor Day "cool down" might actually be a precursor to the current pattern finally breaking, but not before rebounding for a period after Labor Day.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Impressive and thanks for the information and the share. That is A LOT of compost volume standing there.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I was worried about that vetch...I already have it in my garden anyway! LOL. 120!? Wow. I assume you are hosting the TN Valley Wx Spaghetti dinner with that much tomato action! Keep us updated on the hemp situation. How do you market that? I am assuming that is the for the oil which is a big time product right now. Hey, at least you won't have to can all that hemp. Definitely going to need a pic of 10-12 foot plants!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Still looks like a nice shot of cool air is going to be here around Labor Day weekend. Some divergence in modeling(understandably at that range) if the ridge in the East will return or be completely beat down post-Labor Day. I am probably 50/50 on that. Given our recent Fall patterns, the heat likely returns. With that big ridge(EPO?)popped over the western Pacific, it likely opens the door for at least some cool air to push periodically into the SE after Labor Day. It will depend on the amplitude of the downstream trough though. A higher amplitude trough puts the cooler air into the nation's mid-section...a broader trough at least gets seasonal to the spine of the Apps in regards to the post-Labor Day pattern. Basically, the skinny is that the ridge that has been so dominant of late is going to get pushed out to sea or at least to the coast by Labor Day. The question is whether the ridge returns to the East...sometimes modeling is correct in bringing back the original pattern and sometimes it is incorrect in trying to perpetuate the old pattern. The 0z EPS wants to have the ridge rebound while the GEFS is less enthusiastic...both within the bias of each model so who knows! Keep an eye on the ENSO thread, some good stuff in there. Also, Joe D'Aleo is definitely kicking around the idea that a turn to a BN pattern for the EC may return sometime in late Sept or early October. I tend to agree just based on some digging that I have done. But with the crazy Typoon Tip gradient in the Pacific, it is literally like trying to find your way through the dark...
  13. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, my garden remained fallow this year. Going to plant a fall cover crop which I have not done prior. Going to roll with a mix and see how it works. Likely will order some garlic as well...was awesome a couple of years ago. Here is what I am using...thoughts? Hey, and how has your gradient been this summer. I am glad to not be watering through this heat! https://www.johnnyseeds.com/farm-seed/cover-crop-mixes/fall-green-manure/fall-green-manure-mix-cover-crop-seed-2613.36.html Probably going to add some fall salad stuff and definitely some garlic.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Fingers crossed that a nice little pattern change is being shown on the ensembles(GEFS, EPS) this morning. Maybe the first cold front of the season around Labor Day? Pattern change potentially arrives with that front as well. Big ridge goes up over the West and at the very least knocks down the heat over much of the East with maybe even coastal areas getting involved over time. Still 10+ days out there so everyone knows the rules(huge grain of salt). The 6z GFS would be pretty awesome for the first full football Saturday of the year. The potential for normal or slightly BN is something that a few folks have been kicking around for a week or two, so let's hope that comes to fruition...meaning fall like temps.
  15. Carvers Gap
    JB shared the Euro Weeklies through September...about as warm over NA as one can get in a LR model. Looking at Jax's Jan 2013 model and I thought it looked similar. Check out 2019 so far over the Lower 48. Pretty uncanny resemblance regarding the placement of warmth...also note that one is a 500 map and the other surface temp anomalies. In some ways, I think that pattern has been in place for about eight months already.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Try this...let me know if it works. If not, I will grab some snippets. BTW, I am not completely sure what the ENSO is up to...I have a pretty detailed post in the ENSO thread. Jax has some good stuff their recently from the JAMSTEC. Hey, I now have access to Euro seasonal stuff!
  17. Carvers Gap
    It is free if you have Facebook. Just search for WxSouth. You know me...I will write a 5,000 word essay before teasing you all. LOL. I just didn't expound since it wasn't a pay site. Skinny...Thinks that a weak La Nina will be good...mentions TN as a being in a good spot. All speculation he freely admits. D'Aleo had a great post on WxBell today regarding the 93-94 analog going into fall. Thinks that OND will be BN in terms of temps. Also thinks that the cooler temps forecast in the LR over the northern Plains will eventually build into an eastern trough that becomes a mid-late fall stable pattern. I am tired of the heat...so I am freely stating that I am wish casting for a some cool fall weather...or at least just dream about it.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Joe D'Aleo had a great post on the Pacific setup potential leading to a colder OND about a week ago. He also mentioned the flooding today. Pretty uncanny how close the setup looks compared to July. Everything is slightly displaced, but similar features. Two inches of rain in twenty minutes! Holy Moly!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Thanks. I was out of the country during that summer as I shared in the ENSO thread. I put some analog stuff over there as well. The current Pacific set-up is quite similar to the summers of 93 and 05, though not a perfect match. They are also quite similar in how the ENSO pattern unfolded during the couple of years that preceded each. Anyway, so I noticed it was very dry here during '93. However, there was a strong precip anomaly(heavy rain) centered over the mid-West and eastern Plains. The similarity is that precip area is now displaced south and east this summer...and the MS river is has run full since spring, though not sure of its current status. The winter of '94 is the one I always forget in terms of cold, because Knoxville didn't get as much snow as the Plateau. However, the winter was reasonably severe in terms of cold outbreaks. I do think that might have been the winter where I got caught in a convective snow squall near the Cherry St exit - what a mess. Just kicking around some things during late summer. Thanks again for the info. I always say that I trust your climatology information over pretty much all other sources.
  20. Carvers Gap
    So in honor of me saying that analogs are likely untrustworthy as we approach the winter season, let's look at where we are today...or close to it. Oddly, I have tried to remember the summer of '93 and can't remember it. Well, there is a reason for that. I wasn't in North America! I was in the Middle East all summer(non-military). What I do remember is news of the Mississippi flooding. Anyway, I can find a few similar times to where we are now in terms of the ENSO cycle. 93-94, 95-96, and 05-06. 95-96 had more of a La Nina raging by August than now...so I am going to discard that for the moment. However, the summers of 93 and 05 looked fairly familiar in terms of the actually look of the SST temps vs comparing graphs. August 12, 2019 August 1993 August 16, 2005 Here are the composite temps for May through July for 1993/2005... and here is the precip map. Here is 2019... Plenty of similarities on the analog composites. 2019 has surface temps in similar areas but warmer. 2019 has AN precip in the nation's heartland but displaced further south and east. Both winters were wildly different but yielded normal to slightly BN temps over the TN Valley for winter. Where they were significantly different was over the northern Plains during the following winters. I didn't include that composite of the two analogs because they are so different that the composite map actually does a misrepresents the two winters. 05-06 is wildly warm over the Norther Plains and 93-94 is cold...almost opposites in those areas. That said, again, the SE is normal/cool during both. addendum: One can also not on the SST maps that the overall look of the 2019 Pacific map is warmer and is washing out the gradient in the northern hemisphere and might render moot the downstream ENSO implications over NA. Reference to Isotherm and TyphoonTip again.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Good stuff, Jax. IDK about the JAMSTEC. That is another big change in continuity for it. I generally like that model, but it struggled last winter as did the Euro Weeklies. If I had to bet, I think the regions closer to SA will be slightly BN in terms of SST and the regions to the West will be slightly AN. That seems to be a commonality at least for Fall on modeling. So, what I can't decide is whether that has a Modoki look or if it is a week Nina. I am beginning to subscribe to the idea that Robert from WxSouth is floating, and that is that typical ENSO patterns are not producing correlating results in relation to past analogs. I think the gradient will be the issue now in terms of SST(giving a nod to TyphoonTip). Pretty much the entire Pac basin is atypically warm. Now, Isotherm just posted(maybe on the main board now) about how the over-amped Pac may likely produce a very active Pacific jet. We saw that last winter as it just hammered the northern Rockies. I have never seen so much snow in my life(visited in late March last year)....they still had snow up to the second floors of their buildings on April 1st in West Yellowstone, MT. So, I wonder if we see another year with a very active Pacific jet. What I don't know is how the cooler water near SA is going to impact that fire hose. Does it buckle the jet(if so, where?) or does it just allow a zonal flow as this winter's norm? Also the warmer temps in the GOA are going to have to be reckoned with. Even if analogs could be used, seems like very few match the warm basin look along with the very warm water in the GOA. I have seen 93-94 kicked around and maybe 14-15...but do those analogs even work as there is very little gradient in the Pacific right now. I still think the mean trough is east of the Rockies(maybe up against the foothills on its westward extent) and is west of the Apps(maybe barely). I also think this winter is going to be similar to 17-18 in that it has extremes that tend to flip back and forth during winter. Hey, and great thread as always. Thanks for sharing those maps. Definitely not a boring ENSO look as it is sort of wild looking. I suspect we are in new territory right now in terms of the ENSO. This is when I would like to have an atmospheric physics degree(without having to put in all of that work to get it...LOL).
  22. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler pretty interesting to see the storms roll off Bays tonight. Looks like the winter time snow deal that you have studied some. The animation is pretty cool. Maybe a little lift from Bays Mtn which sits at 2300’ and maybe some lift from the industrial heat dome?
  23. Carvers Gap
    @John1122 did the summer and fall of 1993 have any resemblance to the current pattern? Saw that Newman on the main board said that 93-94 looked fairly similar in terms of ENSO.
  24. Carvers Gap
    There is a bit of irony as I type this, because a line of afternoon storms is approaching my location. Anyway, some other folks mentioned the ground surface beginning to dry. Man, my yard is baked. As we begin to see the ENSO moved towards a Nada or slightly less by maybe winter...the heat, reduced rainfall(Weeklies are ugly in terms of precip), and scorching temps show some tendencies towards La Nina climatology already. Scorching hot summers that never end along with a tendency towards a dry pattern(we have had less rain than the Plateau all summer) over E TN certainly appear to depict an atmosphere depcoupling with El Nino fairly rapidly. Weak La Nina's can be fickle in that they have extremes. I suspect we are about to enter a pattern where we go 4-6 weeks of really warm followed by 4-6 weeks of really cool. Robert had a great write-up on WxSouth regarding his upcoming winter thoughts on FB. Worth a read for sure. Basically, he mentioned that La Nina winters (or even slightly negative if I remember correctly) have been more conducive towards cold than weak El Nino winters which up until recently were money. States that he feels that a lean towards La Nina might be indicative over a cooler winter vs the El Nino which now seems to(at any level) release so much heat that the SE is AN. All of that plays into the short range forecast for the next few weeks as it looks very warm and very dry....even though MBY is about to get some much needed rainfall.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Robert has a post on WXSouth FB about different scenarios regarding the upcoming fall and winter...is a good write-up I think.
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