Carvers Gap

I posted this recently in the winter thread while discussing how it seemed suspicious that the GEFS and EPS were placing long term BN heights over AK. To answer your question, if you look at the El Nino graphic, notice how the Pacific jet is working underneath the AN heights in AK and the West Coast. The cold drives down that ridge and intersects w the jet underneath the ridge, hopefully somewhere in our area. You can also see something similar during a Nina, but the confluence(joining and area of phasing) of the two jets is over the northern Rockies. The Rockies during last year's La Nina set snow records in Billings and surround areas. We like El Ninos because the confluence is over the East Coast. What we want is split flow where storms are undercutting a ridge over western North America vs a ridge over the Pacific centered just east of Hawaii. To add to that w like a -NAO over Greenland(high pressure) that causes the jet to buckle right long the EC. It slows the storms that form and forces them to turn north...also allows for easier confluence because it basically stops up the jet. Great thread idea, eastknox.

If you get a big PNA ridge out west or EPO ridge, sometimes energy will sneak under the ridge. So, basically you still get cold being sent south by the western ridge and precip cutting under that western ridge. If we are fortunate, the system(preferably entering at the latitude near Los Angeles) will slide under the ridge and connect w cold air being sent south. We hope that confluence will happen near the East Coast. That is what some might call a big dog pattern.

Realized the same thing this afternoon. Same deal here. Any updates on timing for the forum area would be great.

Nah, man. I think you all will be right. If that cold is anywhere close to being what is on the EPS, I have a difficult time seeing the back half of December getting us back to normal. Same deal with this month. As for severe, I just want some decent wind to knock these last leaves down. Today has been good for that. Right now, I still have like two more weeks of leaves thanks to this tree in my front yard! It always drops them last. Also in terms of severe(pretty much a novice on my part), but I thought today how strong this front was that brought in the cold. Seems like we are in a pattern with strong fronts and those can definitely favor storms. We are also in the time frame where I think if we see severe near the mountains that snow follows within two weeks...or something like that.

Looks like the mini blob in the north PAC has weakened some. Equatorial areas look pretty steady.

I hear you. I have learned a ton from this thread. It is a unique thread to the entire greater forum I believe. Our severe thread may be an original as well. Just dishing out a compliment to Jax and the gang for expanding our knowledge.

This continues, year after year, to be an underrated thread. Some really great info in here. Strong work!

I will be surprised if this gets to moderate before late winter....someone mentioned that in one of the threads, maybe Jeff. So, you think it looks warmish due to December? Normal for January and February will get the job done.

Seems like that has a trough east of HI and one in the SE(both good teleconnections) w marginal source regions for cold. IMHO, that is indeed a decent storm track...rainy looking but maybe we can steal a few wet snows from that look. I would be surprised if the northern Plains were warm. I think we will have a net trough w cold diving in from Canada(Canadian air and not Arctic for the most part) through the Plains w the SER fighting like crazy all winter. That really looks like that model wants a moderate Nino which I am not sure verifies...going to be a close call between good and meh.

Awesome. Thanks! I think the JAMSTEC has flipped warm due to the Nino being potentially stronger. Not a slam dunk, snow winter. However, if it is slow to get to the moderate level(assuming it gets there) then we could still see a weaker Nino reflected for seasonal wx.

Jax, can you see its corresponding temps for DJF for NA?...I noticed that at least one recent run had departed from its cold winter forecast and was very warm. If we have a moderate Nino, all bets are off here regarding winter IMO. However, I wonder if we might still feel some effects of a weak El Nino as it will just be getting started...before it goes moderate.

Been an excellent tomato, carrot, potato, bean, pepper, squash, and okra year. Probably my best tomato year in a long, long time - the copper spray as a fungicide has been more than money. Will try to post some pics, but am out of memory space for my account. During the last couple of years, I was tucking-in large portions of the garden early due to dry conditions. I still have a good part of the garden still "in play" right now.

I can handle temps in the mid 80s during the worst of summer, even upper 80s. Every day we steal from the grips of Dog Days is one less day from potentially the hottest time of the year. Kind of like the reverse of winter when we sometimes get AN temps during the middle of our coldest time frame in January. The LR models and Euro Weeklies(see also the JAMSTEC that Jax posted...) seem to be transitioning to a Nino-is pattern. Seems like they jumped the gun once...but I suspect this is a legit transition now w the amount of rain we are receiving.

Good find. The Euro Weeklies from yesterday likely support that. BN heights and AN precip over the SE, though they certainly have the coldest temps in the lee of the Rockies. That look is pretty consistent throughout its 46 day run with maybe some weakening of the cold in the lee of the central Rockies.

Flash, great share and post. I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned? I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening. But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched.

I might have missed a post about this...We were out of town last week as mentioned in the banter thread. However, because we were two hours behind in the Rockies, I saw the thunderstorm lines approaching Kingsport. I actually contacted my family to let them know that they were incoming. Colonial Heights go absolutely hammered. My house was without power for 24 hours after initially not being without power. A tree came down the next night which I assume was damaged on Friday. As of last night some homes had been without power for 48 hours. Heck, I even think the NOAA transmitter was knocked out... I would not be surprised if other posters in the area were/are without power. Cooks Valley was hit pretty hard as well. @Windspeed, how did you fair? https://www.wjhl.com/local/nws-noaa-weather-radio-transmitter-knocked-out-by-storms/1316293579 Here is the Kingsport power outage story.... https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-without-power-in-the-tri-cities/1313358631 Here are some slide shows... https://www.wjhl.com/news/viewer-photos-720-severe-thunderstorms/1315189683 https://www.wjhl.com/local/nightwatchman-pinned-inside-truck-tree-crashed-onto-camper-at-warriors-path-state-park/1314446733 https://www.timesnews.net/gallery/Friday-night-storms

As Jeff noted, not sure the North Pacific helps us....but that is a decent look if maybe on the "too warm" side for the Nino. Now, what is interesting is the EC of NA w those above normal temps. Looks like Noreaster city w a Nino in place - just a layman's opinion on my part so TIFWIW.

Blight update...been trimming out the diseased foliage, rain has eased up which slows the spread, and I am using organic Copper Fungicide by Bonide. Spreading has been reduced by about 90%. Also added fish emulsion to each plant.

GREAT info, Stovepipe. I would definitely like to buy trees from a place of similar latitude. The sites that I use currently for heirlooms are... https://www.rareseeds.com ...and I do still use Seedsavers and Southern Exposure. I get my sweet potato slips from a TN farm... https://tatorman.com

So far, this looks like it will be a good year for squash(have cool Italian and Lebanese heirlooms that I think will produce...Rigosa Friulana and Lebanese, respectfully), okra, melons, strawberries, and beans. As mentioned above, I think my tomatoes will be average in productions. Last year, I had 96 lbs of sweet potatoes pulled from a 25' row. I will gladly take half of that. Those things were massive. The sweet potatoes should do well again this year. I am trying a variety of fingerling potatoes again this year of a bit of an absence. My main crop of potatoes are Cranberry(All Red) and German Butterball.

I am definitely considering fruit trees...however, deer are a HUGE problem in my neighborhood. My garden has a 6' fence which deter them, because these deer are relatively and thankfully short. I have a standard Rio Grande fence for the yard which is barely an inconvenience for them - the aforementioned garden fence is Fort Knox w a lower level of chicken wire embedded in the ground to stop groundhogs. I suppose I could cage each tree until they are big enough - would make mowing a pain though. I want to plant plums and apples. I found some dwarf varieties that will work in terms of space. I will likely plant some in the fall if time permits. I had intended to this spring. Keep us updated. Hey, it is raining so much and w the high humidity....I can barely keep my yard mowed! LOL.

Thank you for the post and stop by often! I normally trim the yellow leaves off...sometimes I wonder if I spread it by working in the tomatoes by doing this. I usually try to make sure the plants are dry before working in them, and that my scissors are cleaned after each use. I also put diseased plant material well away from the garden. I do rotate my tomatoes. About half of my plants are hybrids that are resistant to blight. However, we have had a period of near tropical warmth and humidity....that is a killer in my garden. Now, I only have one or two plants where the yellowing has begun. I like @Stovepipe 's compost tea idea. I may have to resort to Daconil as a fungicide. I have tried to be generally organic in my garden practices over the past few years, but that can be tough at this latitude w the nightshade family. I did resort to using Sevin this year to hold off some bugs that were in my cucumbers and also in my watermelons. I think one practice that I will discontinue is using wood chips as garden path material near the tomatoes. I have read that chips sometimes can weaken tomato plants. I should get a decent crop, but late season tomatoes may be doomed in my garden - LOL. Another solution might be to plant tomatoes that are early producers? That way they can beat the blight. What I am really looking for is something to slow down the situation - compost tea and Daconil are probably the most realistic fixes. Stove, how do you make your compost tea?

I will add that the quickly warming weather has put the kibosh on my fava beans. They needed just normal temps for May....they are similar to peas in that they need it cool. I still may get a few. Ah well, such is life.

@StovepipeJust tagging on to your comment in the pattern thread...my garden has gone nuts! That said, I am worried that this humidity is going to allow tomato blight to take hold. Do you have anything that you apply to your tomatoes to keep them from getting the blight that begins as yellow leaves on the bottom of the plant and then works its way up - anti fungal spray or fertilizer?

Thanks, roll tide. Good info!