Carvers Gap

Rain and snow mix in the NE TN and SW VA(assuming SE KY as well) this AM with some warm advection type, short-lived stuff. Just looking at LR modeling, looks like we indeed might be in the middle of a pattern reshuffle. We likely see 4-6 days of AN heights upcoming followed by more a more amplified troughs rotating through. Big ridge in the West. This continues a pattern of LR modeling struggling recently, i.e. referencing the long predicted cold pattern that never came during winter. I don't think the reshuffle is a slam dunk, but it certainly appears that the ENSO state might now be coupling with the spring atmospheric pattern. I think the rainy pattern continues, but getting rid of the persistent ridging which has enhanced precip would be nice. Again, since we are out of winter, I am just talking pattern stuff and not snow. Do I think higher elevation snow is over? No. It is not uncommon for the last snows to fall well into April above 5,000'. I may be wrong...but what I am seeing after a warm week next week is a cooler pattern. We may indeed finish BN for March at TRI. Our monthly temp average so far is 36.9 which would currently be colder than the overall temp average(entire month) of any of the individual months of meteorological winter. Probably won't stay that way w a forecast of near 70 on Sunday...but interesting number to cherry pick this AM and gives a good idea of just how cold this first week of March has been.

Wind chill this AM was 7 degrees...in March! The models that kept looking for a winter storm may have been at least in the ball park - systems and cold couldn't link up. EPS looks really cold in the LR, but I am putting it in banter since it has been rather pedestrian this winter. Well, plus I wanted to talk some basketball in banter and just decided to throw in a little weather to keep this post street legal. I hit the sack at halftime. 9:00PM starts on the EC? No bueno para mi familia. Well, the Vols turned in another good defensive performance. Alexander had his best game in weeks. Admiral balled out as well. Both are seniors. Both walked off the floor last night as members of the #5 team in the country and a team hunting the school's first #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. What a difference four years makes! Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounds win championships. Pat Summit preached that on her way to hanging eight NCAA banners. The team is going to have to remember that as we head into the final stretch. An important trip to Auburn on Saturday, and then the SEC tourney. If LSU loses tonight, the Vols are guaranteed a share of the SEC title and their first back-to-back conference titles in school history. Been an excellent three game stretch w wins at OM, UK, and MSU.

Fortunately LR modeling has been undependable to say the least lately....Why would I say that? Because LR modeling is not warm right now. Keep in mind we are talking about this relative to spring temps. Not talking snow. Not talking frozen precip. Cold rain. Cold, cold rain. Maybe the Canadian will be right?

Seeding will be important and so will UT's effort on defense. When the defense is there, they are an elite team. If it is not there, tough sledding. Who they get will be important. Bruce Pearl always stated that each Thursday-Sunday week of the tourney was basically a four team tourney that you have to win. If you want to be the champs you have to win three, four team tournaments of increasing difficulty. Nice way to break it down I think. I don't think Tennessee matches up well with a team like Syracuse who could be a 6-7 seed and be a tough out for a second round game. Teams that have beaten Tennessee have decent guard play, but they have at least one elite big man and a defensive stopper. If they don't have both, I think UT advances against teams lacking one of the two. Kansas, LSU, and UK have(had in the case of KU...sorry to see them lose their big) elite post players and some talented defensive stoppers. I do agree that UT's three ball has been inconsistent. But, their game might be rounding into shape now. I think the bigger problem was going so long without playing a top 25 opponent and our game just got lax. Beating a #4 team by 19 is a sign that UT has elevated its game again. However, at this time of year it would not surprise me to see another regular season loss. Every, single game from this point forward is going to be against an opponent that has something immediate and tangible to play for. Tennessees biggest advantage is that they played four straight weeks as the number one team in the country. They are used to the target on their backs. They have gotten everyone's best. That should help come tourney time. If UT earns a one seed they definitely did not "back into it." While their game has sometimes been erratic, getting wins over two elite teams(potential one seeds) like the Zags and Cats is no accident. In order to get a one seed, they will have to defeat MSU, Auburn on the road, and likely have to defeat LSU and/or UK in the SEC tourney. That is a fairly high degree of difficultly regarding the schedule. I mean at 26-3, that is pretty consistent w only one of those losses being in regulation. And yes, UT likes to wear teams down...great teams do. Alexander definitely has to step up his game while Bone has to continue to play as an elite point guard. He is arguably one of the top 3 PGs in the nation. Grant Williams is in the running for SEC and national POY. I do think the teams remaining on the schedule and the SEC tourney should get this team ready...and that is a compliment to our upcoming opponents. There is not an easy game in the bunch. Going to be some grinders in there. What a great time of year...March Madness, baby!

Went to go running this AM...my route was flooded again. The water was not even that muddy. The base state is now basically out of its banks when it rains. And now...we head into the actual heart of the spring rainy season.

Thanks for the share. Great information. Please keep us updated.

Definitely a nice win for Tennessee yesterday. Tennessee now has wins over two top five teams this year, Gonzaga and Kentucky. Vols and Cats are now even for the regular season. Just two juggernaut teams facing off in this rivalry every time they play each other. Rubber match will likely be in the SEC tourney. UT still has a couple of formidable games left against Mississippi State and on the road at Auburn. I am glad to see the Vols working to re-elevate their game after a stretch of non-top 25 match-ups. Also, several high ranking basketball recruits were in town for the UK game. Looks like we may have landed another five star recruit. Every win from this point forward will now be have to be earned and will be increasingly difficult with each game. Have to show-up each night. At 26-3, a pretty special Tennessee team. Their only losses are to LSU(in OT), Kansas(in OT and before they lost their big man), and to UK(on the road in regulation). All of those teams are teams capable of going deep into the tourney. This Tennessee team is just an easy one to like.

Going to begin the banter thread with some quotes.... "Historically, consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled." Michael Crichton "If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go as a team." John Wooden "Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounds win championships." Pat Summitt "Baseball is 90% physical and the other half is mental." Yogi Berra "Life for me ain't been not crystal stair." Langston Hughes. When we finally tie this thread up in a bow, we will likely be able to see the first cold front of fall on LR models....

Looks like the rainy pattern continues....If this winter has shown us anything, we need to question things if a "dry spell" shows up in modeling. Not sure that we get the massive amounts from last weekend, but still appears to be a steady dose for the next couple of weeks at least. Honestly, when I start to squirm would be if we somehow manage to tap a tropical feed from a tropical storm or hurricane early in the tropical season. Hopefully, we get enough time(before early summer) to allow the water management agencies to get our reservoirs down enough to withstand another healthy round of rain. Very early in the season to have this much water. I feel certain some folks are working long but productive hours to keep tabs on this. They have done a really good, commendable job so far. Just need to buy some time so that we can maintain a bit of wiggle room.

Definitely can see model bias in they AM's model runs. Winter precip threats on the 6z GFS(progressive) and rain on the Euro(tends to be amped a bit much). Though, just looking at recent events and the trends for those, the Euro is probably more likely to be correct. The CMC also has a threat as well. If any of these slps take the low road, then they will need to be watched. Spring systems are notoriously late bloomers on modeling. Though the past two or three suites are definitely looking more liquid than frozen. An active STJ looks to persist. Speaking of model busts(I had mentioned this earlier), the Mountain West was expecting a lower than normal water year. I saw a pick of a fly shop in Montana with snow half way up the side of the building. It is going to be a good water year out there. Just a couple of years ago, much of the nation was experiencing severe drought. The Tennessee Valley has often been a place of feast/famine regarding precip...great example of this over the past five years. My least favorite event is a moderate La Nina summer....looks like we avoid that this upcoming summer.

My earlier comment was regarding tracking a snowstorm and the rain snow line...I don't think anyone wants more heavy rain. I do think we are in a tight spot now that we have had so much rain that has actually preceded Spring. I am definitely looking over my shoulder for signs that this pattern of repetitive rainfall over the forum area sets up shop again. Really, we have not had a break from precip since November. We had warm days and boring wether during the first 2/3 of fall. Since then, the precip has been plentiful. We really need to settle in to just a normal frequency for precip soon.

Something else that I have noticed over the years, we want the system fairly suppressed at five to six days out. March systems are notoriously underdone and tend to jog well north of early modeling. So, some of these suppressed systems are a good sign. If we are right on the edge, it is likely pulling north of our area. Just something to watch. Again...really want to emphasize that it is important to just enjoy the ride and tracking at this point. I pretty much take everything w a dose of salt right now until within four days. Window still looks good. Seem like there are 3-4 pieces of energy rolling through beginning around Sunday. Modeling is still trying to "figure out" which system to emphasize. Looks like some of that energy takes the low road. Going to need cooperation w temps and time of day. The next three suites(meaning 0z and 12z) are fairly important IMHO. A bit of a long shot...but at least we have something to track.

All three operationals are showing a decent window from d6-10. Again, nice big highs in the northern Plains w a portion of those highs spreading eastward - banana high type stuff. It is unlikely that any model has the details correct at this point, but the setup might actually be there for one, final legit window(famous last words). Looks remarkably similar to early winter. 30 day SOI is now around -12. MJO is about to cycle through phase 2-3 which is decent for winter weather. NAO, PNA, AO are not super favorable. However, the EPO is forecast to be negative for the next ten days. The EPO has been a key driver this winter. The other thing is that we may be catching it right before it pops positive...rising or falling signals are good indicators for a stormy pattern.

The 0z EPS has a great late winter/early spring(I count every snowflake in my winter count FTR) look. Big, cold highs pressing south into the front range of the Rockies and then pressing eastward. There looks to be 2-3 systems in the day 7-10 range that might have to be watched. Everyone knows the rules about this time of year...even though I count it on my winter totals, it is all bonus stuff. So, I don't get overly invested at this time of year because climatology is working against us in the valleys and for those at lower latitudes in the forum area. However, with those big highs...latitude might actually be less of an issue. Do we finish winter the we way started it? Certainly looks like we have a shot at doing that. I also like this time of year, because it is usually the last time(before next winter) that our weather community gets to track winter events. Feast or famine. Throw everything out the window in early March. Anything can happen. And for once, some of these threats are inside of d7 and inside of d10. Not constantly having to wait for a d10-15 pattern.

Some good looks on the operational runs of the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC. The good thing is that some of these threats are now under 200h. Not going to add much as it looks like folks above have covered the threat. Looks like those strong HPs are still in play for early March. Give me those and an active STJ and let's see what happens. Reminds me a lot of late November and early December.

MRX with a great write-up about the event as it relates to E TN.... https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite

Byron Begley of Little River Outfitters writes a fantastic fly fishing blog for GSMNP. He also does a great job in talking about river flows. Here is a link to his discussion about where river levels are currently compared to historical averages in the Smokies. He also notes which roads(and why) certain roads are closed in the Park. This article was written this morning. Also, check out that 1994 flood stage for Little River in 1994. I remember that one. Just incredible. They had to rebuild the road from the Y to Elkmont. Reinforcement boulders the size of vans were washed away that year. https://littleriveroutfitters.com/pages/fishing/report.htm

Thanks, Holston. Radarscope showing heavy rain southwest of Knoxville.

Anyone have a nice, hi-def rainfall map(won't include future amounts over E TN) for the past seven days to the present for the forum area?

I watch the levels for Little River and the Doe during spring so as to know when to safely fish(wade) those early season hatches at either Roan Mountain State Park or in GSMNP. Two things...it will take some time for that to settle back to median flow with no rain at all(likely a couple of weeks). The other, it won't take much rainfall at all in order to bump that right back up to flood stage. One time I fished the Doe and the graph looked good when I left the house, but there had been some showers on the mountain a few hours earlier. I noticed an uptick similar to the Feb 11th one where it spiked up and looked like it was coming back down....just that little downward hitch on that blue line above as it soars upward. Well, I though it was coming back down and had peaked. So, we hopped in the car and headed for the state park. Nope. It was a torrent. We tried throwing some streamers, but it was just too much. Got home and the graph was rolling. For that entire spring, the river was very susceptible to any rain. Great share, Tellico. Great illustration of a river "stepping up" over time.

I am all for those totals being backed-down. 3-4" is about the max that we can handle here before it gets ugly. My area that I jog is now under water and seems like the "base state" for that current area - meaning it is out of its banks and not receding quickly. We can probably handle 3-4" over the period of a week, though there will likely be urban flooding etc. The bigger numbers in SE TN and west of that are trouble for the TN River system. I was commenting earlier that the absolute thing that we don't want in the LR is a big snowstorm in the mountains followed by another active STJ firehose that melts it all at once. Folks in the foothills communities know that is bad business.

Man, forgot about that. Everything here is really high. The mountain streams and rivers were out of their banks on Friday afternoon. The were barely back in by Saturday AM.

That is a nasty looking line. Really pulling up the warm air in front of it on SSW/SW winds....

Good call, @jaxjagman! You all keep us updated. We are nearing record highs in the eastern valley. TRI is just four degrees from it and TYS is just one degree from it. Should be plenty of warmth for those storms to work with over here.

@Stovepipe, been waiting on the end-of-the-year season wrap up. No worries as I know that you mentioned that you have been working like crazy. Just wondering how your garden did this year? Another great year for sweet potatoes here. Bell peppers did really well as did okra. My watermelons did ok, but I think they are heavy feeders...and I need to feed them more. Carrot crop was good. Tomato crop was good. I got less cucumbers this year, but I think that was "gardener error" on my part. First seed catalogs for 2019 have begun to arrive.