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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS and GEPS definitely showing a trough which slips back into Alaska after 300. LR guidance has been bouncing around with how far that cold can intrude into the US. Depending on where that boundary sets up (the AK trough potential nosing SE) will tell us a lot about things going forward after mid-month. As for severe, the "thunder in the mountains" saying (snow within 10-14 days) has been pretty sound in recent years.... If the MJO can make it out of the COD, will be interesting to see how long it stays in the warmer phases. Some schools of though out there that it may just keep going which would be fine by me. After the system this weekend, there may be a few shots of cold/snow showers after that...we will see if that trough lifts out with the storm or digs in for a few more days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at today's MJO forecasts...beware. The MJO has gone weak sauce(even more so than the last mention of it I had) - meaning it can barely get out of the COD. The ensemble clusters are either more COD or very weak 4-5-6. The hi-res models, which at one point propagated into warmer phases, are literally stuck in one place. I think this is likely why we are seeing the look that John noted last night which is a trough stretching from AK to the SE. Normally, one would think the SE would have a ridge blunt that cold intrusion. IF(emphasis on IF) the MJO is correct, it may be muted if today's ECMWF and NCEP modeling is accurate on the CPC site. That might ever so slightly open the door for a colder SE than once thought after Christmas. Just spitballing, it might mean we get a normal cold configuration of La Nina, but the SER might be muted enough that cold could head SE. In recent years, that cold has had trouble getting past the Plains, but that was with a very strong MJO which seemed camped out at high amplitude in the warm phases of 4-6.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The first day of meteorological winter IMBY. Had a dusting on the ground. Wind chills were in the teens for much of the day. The mountains had near blizzard conditions. Ski slopes have to be loving this. No idea if it lasts, but what a great day for winter lovers across the eastern half of the state. That is how you start winter right there.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Whole lot of energy running around on that map. Looks like a phase just east of the area to quote a good friend. That said, the trough over TN is about to go negative tilt. As we learned with this last storm, phases are finesse deals. Most modeling just "figured out" today that a storm was possible. Have to think no solution is locked in... That said, I would be feeling pretty good in the NE with that look. We really need to be pulling for that energy to go neg tilt slightly earlier. The 18z GFS was well west of the RGEM and is on the others side of the envelope. Kind of like being in the middle of two solutions at this point. LOL. Great share. Illustrates the complexity and coolness of following winter storms. Bunch of 1s and 0s make a pretty neat map and solution.
  5. Carvers Gap
    D14+...Just looking at the MJO, that is some weak sauce stuff. Maybe it trends stronger like last year, but it can barely get out of the COD. And it looks like modeling wants to get it into cooler phases quickly if it goes into the warmer phases at some point - which looks low amplitude at this point. Might be tough to get this trough out of the East...maybe we get the pattern where the cold extends from western Canada and into the nation's mid-section with bouts of cold in the East. Primary storm track is a cutter into the Ohio Valley with secondary up the coast? Are we going to go with a "Dec 1989 Lite" look with a flip to warmth for the rest of winter or maybe a "95-95 Lite" look? I have no idea. The ensembles in the LR seem sort of split on the matter. Those are cold maps around d10+ off the top of my head. Been a long time since we have seen a full latitude trough...of course we could just go zonal. Until then, we might have some more things to track for the next 2.5 - 3 weeks.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I know I sound like a broken record, but there is a load of energy about to come together this weekend on the EC.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Also beginning to see the pattern breakdown late in week 3 on both the EPS and GEPS with the trough lifting towards Alaska and the SER waiting in the winds as the EPO retrogrades into the Aleutians. Long way off and that could change, but is a very persistent signal on modeling and Weeklies runs.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Euro is a big change towards a halfway consolidated low in the Piedmont. EPS concurs. Nice 12z suite.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the 12z suite....That is now the ICON, GFS, and now GEM with systems coming out of the GOM just after hour 84. Again, cold source is lacking...but that track (SE to NE) can be snow in the NW quadrant at this time of year.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I am generally suspicious of systems following up a previous system with a similar look...but the set-up is eerily similar to yesterday.
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z GEM takes a fairly organized SLP from the panhandle. Snow is middle TN at 102. Even though that has marginal cold, that track will work - especially if that system is that organized. Trending towards something that needs to be watched closely.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, both the GFS and ICOn both wrap bring some light snow showers after that system departs.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Basically seeing the 12z ICON and 12z GFS develop a low on the front and bring a system NNE from the Panhandle of Florida. Has the potential to be a really big interior NE snowstorm(northeast of here), but will be interesting if someone can get enough marginal, cold air to wrap into the storm to get some snow early in its development.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Sure enough, by 102 the GFS has decent snow in SE KY and SW VA - think that is Boone's local. Would not surprise me to see that solution become a bit more robust in terms of scope.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just watching the 12z GFS out to 90, very similar set-up to the UKMET from this AM.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Don't sleep on the 0z GEM for this weekend....was close to a decent storm for the eastern valley. Euro was just an open wave that amounted to nothing. 6z GFS was close. More of an outside shot, but the Canadian gets a bit more weight than usual as it did decently with this last system. I mean the 0z GFS as @TellicoWx mentioned, was decent for middle TN. Last year, we kind of didn't have enough cold with the HB block. This year, we have barely enough, but as last night shows...the cold doesn't have to be overwhelming to get snow. Right now, only the Euro(and that is an important piece) is without a snow solution for someone in the TN Valley forum area. In the LR, definitely a pattern breakdown on the 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS at 500. The 0z EPS is pretty solid. Basically modeling is calling for that really deep trough mid-month to lift into Alaska. Plenty of option on the table which also include and EPO in that area. Right now, I would lean towards that trough lifting out for the last third of the month, but am not confident in that at all. I do think there is potential for cold/snow to return in January(if it indeed leaves). The Cansips this AM has flipped to a cold SE for DEC. It pulls the cold back in January, but based on its 500 look...seems like their is room for cold to move out of the Rockies into the SE...
  17. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the update and welcome back! Hope you had some great time off. We are busy switching our running gear from summer to winter. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS follows suit with the GEFS d10+....still a true threat the trough could retrograde back West. But two seasonable to cold model runs for much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies. Been a while since I have seen a full latitude trough verify during winter...so I am always suspect. That said, better than staring at what we did during much of this month(November).
  19. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, I thought I remembered that the EPO "could" mute the MJO. Definitely both scenarios(epic or spin) in play at this range IMO...Have seen some LR modeling that retrogrades the ridge a bit too far and the SER pops. Past 24 hours worth of model runs have looked better.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS d11-16 (5) day mean at 500 so TIFWIW. I like the -EPO which is showing up. We are going to need something to counter the upcoming MJO convection in warm phase regions(hoping it is low amplitude and fast if it goes into warm phases). Definitely a possibility this pattern(shown below) retrogrades/trends into the West as the EPO slips a bit westward off the coast of western NA. Scandinavian Ridge connecting ever so slightly with the EPO. That should open up the gates for cold air to head into the Lower 48. Huge caveat...this is basically what was shown during November that headed into the West - occurred twice. The MJO is a thorn here, but there are times when we do overcome the unfavorable MJO phases with a pattern similar to this if memory serves me correctly. Maybe the winter of 14-15? One of those went through the warm tour and it stayed cold. Anyway, just worth a look. Everyone knows the rules about taking LR ensemble stuff as gospel.
  21. Carvers Gap
    On a quieter(less newsworthy note), the 12z GEFS(post 300h) is not looking warm.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Looking out in time a bit. I really like the GFS extended that has been added to WxBell's model suite. Basically it show the pattern degrade around mid-month, relax for about ten days, and then return....huge grain of salt at that range please. Was looking at teleconnections this morning, the general gist is that the AO and NAO are going to be slightly negative with the EPO going slightly negative - all of that varies slightly depending on model and run. Going to be interesting as the MJO has trended towards a warm(weak) phase look. Is the MJO going to camp out in those phases or move quickly around and/or will weak(but favorable teleconnections) balance out any MJO mischief. Makes me think that the base pattern will still have a Nina look, but that cold may well move eastward from time to time, and thus, give us some chances. Lots of uncertainty right after Christmas as one might expect...but sort of we didn't expect uncertainty as I pretty much felt like January was going to be warm - not nearly as much of a certainty as once thought.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the eastward jog has stopped with the 0z suit as the NAM and GFS have either similar tracks or are slightly west and/or stronger. Time to start watching the one behind this for MBY. Maybe our folks at elevation and middle TN can score some accumulating snow.
  24. Carvers Gap
    32k 0z NAM is further south than 18z through 11 hours. Will update in this post....just hit refresh in a minute. Through 18 slp over the panhandle of Florida. Through 27, south and east of 18z. Switched back to 3k NAM as it is populating more quickly: Through 38, very similar but a hair quicker and maybe a bit more robust to the NW in Indiana. @44 down to 990mb...quite a bit stronger than 18z. Wrap around moving in.
  25. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, I am dropping my SREF plume in the main thread. LOL. 1" mean for reference after I have to delete this image later for space.
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