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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it. Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Saturday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning. Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthens slp ten out of ten times. Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up. Fun run.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That run is pretty much near perfection. Nearly a foot in middle TN at 192.
  3. Carvers Gap
    At 180, northern middle and the Plateau are getting scraped.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is an interesting run for sure. Memphis gets ~3". Storm takes so long to get its act together that much of it falls as rain in E TN...but not all of it is rain. Downsloping and scouring of temps occurs due to it crawling along the Gulf Coast. Perfect track for E TN if we can get any cold of cold to hold OR if it gets stronger. Much more wrapped up this run than last.
  5. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro @150...
  6. Carvers Gap
    Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)? Maybe I have just missed it. That should be fun. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Agree that colors pretty much changed in unison...a true testament to the duration and strength of the warm anomalies and then accompanied by a quick switch to seasonal and then below. I don't think it was much cooler at elevation. That said, our leaf change up here was super quick for maples, locusts, sweet gum, sycamore. The oaks are basically are way behind. So, it is almost like a two tier change here, and it sort of has been lately anyway. The rain and wind knocked the leaves down from the trees that had just changed...and left the oaks in tact. Also agree that fall actually turned out to be quite nice at lower elevations from a color standpoint. The wet spring helped, and I do think the recent rains helped. And rainy days IMHO are great days to photograph the leaf change. The colors are just richer. Today is beautiful. Temps are chilly. The wind chimes are singing. Going to be super cold tonight - compared to what we have been used to. I think our band is changing-up its routine as playing when it is below freezing is super tough on the instruments...especially the competition stuff. These HS band don't have the budgets of those northern marching bands who can make sure that they have good, cold weather instruments ...and instruments for the rains. A good example, is that one needs a plastic clarinet for the rain and wood for concert. The brass(while being played and warm air is in the instruments) also sweats similarly to a Coke bottle that has just come out of the fridge. . It has been a great marching season. Lots of great stories. The national championships are this weekend in Indianapolis. Our kids are heading to the Rose Bowl parade instead, and will not make the trip to Indy(too expensive to do both trips). Was a tough decision since DB won't be able to defend its 3A national title(its first) from last season. However, what a great opportunity to go to Pasadena, and be in that parade. We are really blessed to have so many kids who play in our full band - 388. Just under 20% of the kids in the high school play in the band. Crazy! Plus, DB is in the playoffs this year after a rough couple of seasons. Glad to see them bounce back. They are such an easy team to pull for. In smaller towns in NE TN(and really most areas in the state) high school football is a great community event that brings everyone together. In smaller towns, we don't have changing school zones...so some of these kids are walking on playing fields as fourth and fifth generation athletes or band members.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thursdays system next week is still interesting. 6z GFS and 12z Euro have it. Something to watch. The energy that was held back Tuesday is getting picked up as a GOM slp.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Some BIG difference between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS in the long range. GEFS quickly erodes the cold pattern by next Saturday. It has really moved up its flip to a more zonal/weak eastern ridge pattern. The EPS is stone cold through the end of its run with not even a hint of what the GEFS is cooking. Something to watch. I don't really trust either model right now. The GEFS is well...the GEFS. However, the EPS has been awful at seeing cold in the LR(which it sort of has now with the 500 pattern), but it is also has had issues with seeing pattern changes only to flip at the last moment. Something to watch in the LR. The GEFS has been showing this off/on for a couple of days. Pretty impressive differences showing up at d7. The EPS rolls a ridge through and the GEFS sticks the trough in the Southwest. Been a weird weak, so each model taking on the other's bias would fit right in. The EPS rebuilds the eastern trough and the GEFS builds in a wonky by not impossible pattern. Might be the GEFS is just ahead of things which it does sometimes.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Agree with watching the Thursday system. Also, the Euro Weeklies and the EPS look to hold the current pattern in place. TIFWIW, we know the Weeklies have been flipping around a lot. Last winter we all thought would be cold, especially the back half. After early December...went straight warm. So, I kind of think the atmosphere owes us one. LOL. The weather outside has been nasty this evening. Kind of reminds of the first Harry Potter movie when he is on the island, and Hagrid finds him on that dark and rainy night. Also, been putting out fires for the past couple of days. Great to see all of the discussion from everyone. You know when we put the Tennessee Valley forum together several years ago...that is kind of how we thought it might look. I know I post quite a bit...but my favorite days looking at the forum are when I see all of this great material to read - and I haven't posted at all. Means we are alive and well. I hope my legacy with this forum is not that I posted a bunch. I hope it is that WE built a great place to discuss weather that will carry on in some shape or form for many years. And ultimately, I hope we produce a few meteorologists because of the great discussion by all of us. The SE forum has produced a few.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And looking a little more closely at the 12z Euro, it has the wave on Tuesday in SE GA. It just lacked precip. So, just guessing the phase missed or was a weak phase. Honestly, that setup with no changes probably has more precip over the TN valley. So, really at seven days out....that is still fairly astounding agreement among many models for surface feature placements over just one small area of the globe.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z Euro held back its energy in the southern stream and buried it over west TX. Sometimes it is right with that, sometimes not. The northern stream energy did pop a coastal. The CMC had the wave continue out of SW Louisiana and continue up through the Piedmont. Pieces are there...timing on that run was not. GFS was too progressive. Euro held energy back. Both are biases. I would think there is a decent signal for an EC storm...may not help us here, but maybe for folks from West Virginia to inland NE. But who knows...that set up could yield an inland runner or just be sheered out with nothing. Interesting to see for sure.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Watching the 12z Euro roll right now...the 12z UKMET had a monster high rolling in from Canada with a sip over the TX Panhandle around the Tuesday/Weds timeframe of next week. Then the run ended. So, that is three models with some potential, but need one of the major global models on board(GFS or Euro). Still is interesting for sure. Big, cold highs our of Canada have been an ingredient in many big EC coastal storms. Just kicking things around, but interesting.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Typhoon Halong is probably factoring into East coast weather next week. BIG storm. As mentioned in the MA forum, that is the type of system that resets what would otherwise be a good pattern. Could be both a blessing(short term) and a curse type deal(long term w/ pattern reset and doing more damage than needed to the PV this earl).
  15. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Ya'll need to me to talk more about New England confluence and sliders being the main potential. The CMC has a Miller A @174.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @John1122, I think the possibilities of you getting a cold November are increasing quite a bit. I have my fingers crossed. Last November flipping on modeling has me a bit gun shy. However, looks like temps through mid-month will be well BN. Maybe some decent signs that the second half will be seasonal to BN. One could make an argument that my warm December idea is even in jeopardy. The eastern trough is looking fairly steady right now. Hopefully, that holds as we settle into early winter in a few weeks....changing wavelengths do make me nervous as the current ones are a bit short. That said, the ensembles do have more of a stable wave pattern for the northern hemisphere which look a bit more winter like in nature(meaning longer wavelengths)...I may be getting ahead of myself on that, though.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the western and middle Pacific are pretty much going to be AN SSTs for DJF. I figured the eastern regions might warm a bit. Kind of a weird set-up and why an analog package may get beat-up pretty good this winter as many(including you an I) have noted. Hey, the SOI is tanking...not sure what that is going to unleash.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I would guess that maybe the GFS and other LR modeling are possibly missing some small scale features embedded in the northern stream next week. Tuesday and Wednesday next week are super cold on the 12z GFS. I wouldn't rule out some northern stream feature slipping into the picture at the last minute. That is normally a late Dec/January flaw in modeling, but this airmass being modeled is January level cold(not severe by January norms...but severe by November standards). That type of cold is about a month and a half early. Modeling has had some frozen precip during that time frame from time to time on various runs. At this point, climatology very much frowns on valley systems that feature measurable frozen precip other than passing flurries or snow showers. However, with the GOM being slightly more active and cold roaring through....doesn't hurt to watch things. Probably the best option would be snow coming in along the Arctic front. Low probability at this point, but chances are not zero either. I will say this...anytime that much cold air gets into the forum area, has to be watched for shenanigans. Some type of upslope event would likely not be out of the question either as lake effect snow is probably going to be a part of these big, cold highs. edit: What I am looking for is of the slider variety as true confluence is probably in New England so that makes a coastal less probably.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Looks like 1/2 El Nino and 1/2 La Nina....looks much cooler than I thought it would look. What are the trends on that, Jax?
  20. Carvers Gap
    My first semester at UT. Pretty much froze. Second semester, I think the opened the outdoor pool in like January. LOL. Just seems like right now that the trough really wants to go into the East. Really pulling for that November -> winter correlation to work out. Great start here for a cold month to be realized.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Through the first three days of November, TRI is -10.2F below normal.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it backs of just a bit with the Tuesday cold shot and that particular trough is shallower...and then it delivers a second and third shot during the next couple of days that are equally impressive. The wind chills on Wednesday AM in the higher elevations are in the teens below zero. The trend was slightly warmer(I mean are lower 30s for highs really that much warmer!?) for Tuesday and trended colder over most of the eastern 2/3 of NA for the following days. The end of that run is cold...that would be cold even in January. I hope it verifies. Still about seven days out...but an impressive cold signal on the GFS and Euro for the 12z suite. Death ridge for early fall, deep freeze for late fall...and then watch us go zonal all winter just to keep it even. LOL
  23. Carvers Gap
    We'll see if this verifies...but Tuesday and Wednesday(next week) don't get above freezing at TRI on the 12z GFS. Pretty sure there are some record lows in jeopardy if that is correct. Long way to go, but another impressive run. Let's see if the Euro backs it up. FYI, I always forget that everything runs an hour earlier when we "fall back." edit: Looks like the GFS puts a bit of snow on the ground which skews that just a tad...but still looks like Tuesday would have trouble making it to freezing unless it was at midnight. Super cold air mass that is 20-30 degrees below normals for max temps.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro control run is good for some kicks and giggles. It gotta hold of what the GFS was drinkin' last night.
  25. Carvers Gap
    This is about the time frame that big high keeps making an appearance. That is a potent high. What happens after this frame is the boundary pushes over the forum area and it snows. I wanted to put this out there so the set--up is there to compare to for future runs. Jax has some great output above relating to temps in middle TN. That(central MT) is a great location for a strong high pressure. During recent winters, notably December of 2018, those highs signaled very cold weather downstream. D'Aleo referenced this year yesterday. I thought it was a good reference, but held his comment in reserve until something besides the GFS depict that. Hopefully, we see that high as a semi-permanent feature on future runs. And hey, I wouldn't discount some more high elevation snow for this Friday w even some flurries in the valleys. Feels like crazy talk after those record warm temps...but that is what makes following weather enjoyable.
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