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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS implies that we "might"(famous last words) get some help from the Atlantic with AN heights showing up over Greenland. What is encouraging is that heights have lowered(not hugely) over the SE in response to that. Something to keep an eye on, and continues the odd trend of afternoon modeling being more conducive to winter than 0z.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is picking-up on some sleet/ZR in the higher elevations north of I-40 on Friday morning in SW VA(edit...sorry), NE TN and Plateau. Looks like it hangs on for several hours, especially in CAD prone valleys and western NC. Tnweathernut mentioned that high would not be easily moved if real. Looks like a good observation there. If the onset of rain is earlier, I wouldn't rule out some mischief in the valley. Not saying anything serious, but nuisance type stuff west of the Apps.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS looks remarkably like the 0z EPS. Not that a cave means much in the LR...but that is pretty much that.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Just glancing at storm tracks for the next 2-3 weeks. Looks like we have the front Tuesday night. Then, this weekend looks like an slp from the GOM with a low in the Lakes. Then, it looks like cutters OR systems running along the OH river valley. I did read some stuff this AM about the PV tightening up for a time. I doubt that continues for long given the ENSO state. ...And I do hold loosely to the idea that winters tend to balance out in NA relative to the current state. The West has had some fantastic winters during the last five years. I think it likely that shifts this direction at some point. This winter? IDK. We are also due a winter where we get a broad North American tough that is cold coast-to-coast. That type of winter may be due around the time the AMO goes negative. Again, it is very rare that winters don't have some type of warm-up. It is also fairly normal for Nino winters to get going around mid-Jan or even late Jan.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS gives us some hope with its high latitude looks this AM in the LR. The EPS looks very warm during the d10-15 range and is locked-in it appears. Now, this week is a good example of something modeling missed. That said, JB mentioned that the EPS is doing very well for temps this week and likely next...meaning it has settled-in and has to be taken seriously. Let's see if the GEFS actually begins to roll that d14-16 look forward. If it doesn't, just a mirage. The actual warm pattern is now within ten days and approaching incrementally with each model run, meaning it's not being pushed back. How long will it be warm? I think a wide range is wise...my hope is that it is just a couple of weeks. My hunch(though not set in stone as these past few weeks have had much variability) is that we are looking a 3-5 weeks with the start date next week. So, maybe the cold returns consistently around mid-late January. Not saying that is the gospel...just what it looks like on modeling this AM. The GEFS would imply a temporary and shorter period of AN temps. The EPS would imply a locked-in, repeating western trough. Need to see the EPS begin to shake that look soon as what it is depicting will take time to actually break down. The convection in the eastern Indian Ocean combined with a recently positive SOI(daily)(*edit...dipped back to -4 today) is a strong signal for a western trough similar to last winter. Obviously this is not last winter and the convection is probably 2/3 of last year's event...So, looks like we will have to weather some December warmth which is expected, but I really don't like it coming mid-month. Likely means that warmth presses into January. We will see. Hopefully this will be just a winter of strong variability and no pattern locks-in.
  6. Carvers Gap
    ....and even the 12z Euro operational is cold with very little sign of warmth. So, definitely some conflicting signals. The 12z Euro is quite cold around d10.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS has a textbook winter pattern with blocking in both oceans. I don't like the ensembles...they get better at this time of the year. But the operational run cannot be discounted due to its recent ability to sniff out blocking...
  8. Carvers Gap
    Of particular intrigue just tagging onto my most current post(besides this one), the 18z GFS looks nothing like the 18zGEFS for days 10-15. They could not be more different over the Western Hemisphere. Also, as noted above, the operational runs have often (IMHO) been out-doing the ensembles in the d10-15 range. So interesting test coming up as the operational has not really agreed with the ensemble at 12z and 18z of the GEFS. That said, the MJO might be about to get more active as evidenced by a more active eastern Indian Ocean. That might be something to watch as an MJO which is in the COD...might work its way around.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS and 12z GEPS...that is a significant pattern change being advertised. As Bob Chill mentioned(and I also alluded to this earlier today), that is warm pattern. Hopefully, models whittle this down to nothing as they have done with this upcoming week's. But what is depicted doesn't look like a passing ridge in the East...it locks in. If this "warm up" fizzles...have to think that any warm air forecasted for winter in the LR has to be viewed suspiciously. Stinks that is over the holidays, but the tendency so far is for those long term patterns to fizzle. Man, I hopes so...cause that is an ugly, ugly look and if it verifies...a pattern that is very stubborn to uproot. Maybe the strat split comes to pass and bails us out. I could happen. That said, what is being shown is pretty much torch city. Need that look to go away fairly soon. Either way, need this week's storm to perform...might be the last for a decent bit IF the ensembles are true. I suspect they are correct this time...they have been trying to flip for about two weeks on LR modeling. Sometimes, models just get ahead of themselves or sometimes they constantly portray a change that never comes like last year. I lean warm...
  10. Carvers Gap
    What do you all think about firing up a thread for the Tuesday event? I don't mind discussing it here either. Just thinking that it might be thread worthy at this point.
  11. Carvers Gap
    ...and I said cold chasing rain? I am batting .1000 today!
  12. Carvers Gap
    No problems with a cold source on those maps. I have been kicking this around...how many of you feel like the operational have been sniffing out cold in the LR compared to ensembles. The GFS operational was the first operational to catch the flip from extreme heat to record cold during the four week progression of October to November. The CMC was next if I remember correctly. Do you have the actually surface temps for the CMC(not just the departures)?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Man, I am about out of memory on my account. Tropical Tidbits has it. If you don't have access...let me know and I will post it here. It is almost post worthy anyway. That was extreme stuff.
  14. Carvers Gap
    If you all get a chance, take a look at the surface temps on the last few frames of the CMC. -45F air coming down the Plains. GFS has that to some extent as well. May or may not verify, but that type of cold never ceases to amaze me.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS and CMC very poised to unleash bitterly, bitterly cold air around d10. 4 hours ago...I warned about a warm-up. You can thank me later - like washing my car in the middle of a drought. LOL. We will see what the ensembles say...but I think the operationals since October have actually led the way in finding cold after d10. The ensembles in that range have been playing catch-up for about two months.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12 NAM snowfall amounts are true statistical outliers compared to other guidance. Either it scores an VERY unlikely coup or is just further evidence that it amps systems up far too much. I have seen it amped...but this is even a bit much in relation to itself. We will need to tread carefully with that model this season.
  17. Carvers Gap
    LR...tough call. Yet again, LR models are depicting a fairly strong ridge to return to the East during the third week of December. Why do I say "tough call?" Well, interestingly ensembles also showing AN heights over Greenland during the same time frame. Way out there...it looks like the Aleutians trough returns(that we lose around d10 and replace with an eastern Pacific ridge starts to push inward) - meaning that may not be a permanent feature. I do know one thing, ridges that get established in the East are tough to move once there. On a sour note, the CFSv2 has flipped to a warm January after weeks on end of depicting that month cold. It could easily flip back as it is a "flavor of the month" type model anyway. Just thought I would give a heads-up that it appears that the warmth that was shown for mid-month has re-appeared on ensembles, just one week later. Will it hold? No idea. It hasn't for a few weeks. But anytime models are in "lock step" probably best to at least throw some shade their way. It is possible that the trough out West could correct eastward, but we will see. Finally, there was a lot of talk yesterday about a potential PV split - maybe at 50 mb? If that happens...modeling should start to really jump around. Maybe that is why we are seeing blocking showing up out of the blue in Greenland. As for Tuesday, tough call yet again...probably cold chasing rain but we had a similar set-up in mid-November that worked out quite well.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I wake up and find 21 new posts...
  19. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the trick is just getting the big high since we don't have blocking. Otherwise, those systems are going to zip right along. On a positive note, there is some potential for over-running in terms of snowfall. That cold will be stubborn to move. Like John said, 14-15(could have been 13-14) had a winter with lousy blocking teleconnections besides the Pacific. I have been thinking about the +AO data that you mentioned(great stuff BTW). I just wonder if this is a year where the +AO might be a bit deceiving. With a big EPO block, we essentially have blocking with cold air coming straight off the pole. Now, a +AO most winters is a big problem...and I am not sure we will ever over-achieve like 14-15(to paraphrase Bob Chill I think), but I do think John has a point. John and I used to argue back and forth at times(not really argue...just teasing really) about how important the Atlantic is in terms of blocking. Problem, is until the AO flips negative...the Pacific is the driver right now with marginal help from the Pacific. So, he has sort of sold me on that, but I do like a good old fashioned -NAO....sort of like owning a Ferrari. Nice to look at on modeling, but when the time comes...pretty much not something achievable by the common man. I will also so, if we lose the Pacific...gonna get warm! I do hold out hope that we actually do see some blocking over Greenland as we lose the Pacific. That type of blocking might show up in mid-Jan per Nino climatology and this SSW stuff. If we are able to steal December from the throws of warmth, we have achieved something in my book. Pretty overwhelming how warm Nino Decembers have gotten in the past. That said, there are some colder clusters though smaller in number.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Pretty amazing how different the pattern looks with those big highs showing up in the Northern Plains. Basically flattens the pattern out and prevents cutters on modeling...On the GFS, there are now three events to track inside of 10 days. They are small but better than what we typically get at this time of year.
  21. Carvers Gap
    It appears the 12z GFS has rediscovered the potent slp next weekend...amazing how that happens over and over again. Now, it is a warmer system as their is a low in the Lakes. But plenty of time for that to change. For a progressive model like the GFS to have that. My guess would be(if real) a more wound-up system further inland.
  22. Carvers Gap
    As Holston mentioned...going to have to keep an eye on that the system Tuesday into Wednesday. Both the 12z ICON and the GFS are touting 1040+ highs. Reminds me of the system a couple of weeks ago. Probably cold chasing rain...but that is big cold chasing rain. Also, will it develop a wave along the front per the icon?
  23. Carvers Gap
    ...And the 0z Euro w a tease way out there. Interesting to see the models really looking to bring a system nearly due north out of the GOM at that d8-10 range. That threat has never really materialized inside of d6 or 7. With the sharp EPO ridge out West, it does make sense. Would not be surprised to see one of those materialize in the d5-6 range sort of out of the blue OR just a thread that was "rediscovered." Again, it is not uncommon for global models to lose storms around d7 and then find them again.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, I am not as worried about timing(maybe I should be)...just want that big high. The two ingredients in a set-up without Atlantic blocking are an active jet and a good source of cold. The GFS and CMS have those...and both have energy in the pattern at about the right time given the range we are at which is a week+.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And sure enough, the GFS finally finds its storm. The key is whether that big high is real. I think the southern stream is going to be active. The CMC has a 1044 high on it...let's see where it goes. Those big highs, for example, are similar to what caused the snow a few weeks ago. The are potent.
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