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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I think for one thing, we have been testing the limits as to how far into the future that we can use these models...I know I have. D10-15 patterns shift a lot on ensembles anyway. That said, there have been some wild shifts lately that often resemble the operational shifts. I just like to see how far I can push the envelope. D8-15 has been a mess for about 12-13 months. Seems like when the Euro and GEFS locked into a pattern years ago, they didn't bounce around as much(but they were still prone to shifts). I also suspect that we are seeing a somewhat substantial(but slow) hemispheric pattern change. December '18 to October '19 seemed like one big, repetitive pattern. Now, I think the pattern is changing, partly due to seasonal changes and partly because the atmosphere is now coupled with the weak El Nino. I am not sure where the pattern goes. It is a bit like playing the slots...just never know what is going to come up. As Tellico said...probably best just to ride with climatology right now. It actually has been pretty good.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Nice run of the 12z GEFS. Dec 8-18 it has a nice EPO/PNA ridge. Timing would be tough for a storm, but gulf systems don't seem to a problem right now. I hesitate to say it...but nice trends over the past 3-4 runs on the GEFS. Let's see what the EPS shows.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Leconte Lodge reported 5" of snow this morning. You can see their photos on FB.
  4. Carvers Gap
    No reason to waste a favorable pattern during the first half of December. LOL. I will say that when I was little, a cold/snowy Missouri and western KY were always good signs in my book. Always seemed like if they could score early, we would get our share at some point. Paducah, KY, was always a place I would keep an eye on. If it snowed there, always seemed like we had a shot here(lived in Knoxville as a kid in the 70s). I also like to watch the temp in International Falls. It seemed like if the core of the cold went there, it would find a way here. Now, I am looking at thunderstorm activity in the Indian Ocean and 500mb levels over Greenland and the eastern Pacific. I have said this a few times...during the 70s it seemed like many of Knoxville's best snows would begin in Memphis(from a kid's perspective). We know those as sliders now of course. Would be interesting if we had one of those "old school" tracks...cutters and sliders.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Well, you might as well just go buy a new snow shovel while you are at it!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Finally had some snow showers here in Kingsport. Sure is cold. So, basically the higher elevations scored an event for the first two days of met winter. Not bad. Looks like Roan is getting hammered pretty good right now. I bet they get several inches.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That was the worst...Saturday school and losing Spring Break. Fortunately kids now go an extra 30 mins per day now in most systems and bank 14-15 days...maybe 3-4 of those get used for professional development. But I seriously hated going to school on Saturday. Teachers back then would schedule tests on those days to make sure everyone would come to school. So, on top of having to go to school on Saturday, I am having to study for a test on Friday night. In 85, we had some Saturdays even get snowed out I think. I remember sitting there taking a test on one Saturday and just watching it snow outside - like 2-3" on the ground. In '85, my dad had a business trip to St. Louis. He raced one of those storms home. There was snow on snow on snow from mid January through almost the end of February. We had drifts of 2-3'. Seemed like every storm over performed with tons of NW flow types events even in the valley.
  8. Carvers Gap
    0z EPS with yet another flip overnight to warm in the d8-15 range. The 0z and 6z GEFS OTH look much improved and more than workable. I still lean warm for December, and I do give the EPS more weight at this time of year. So, let's see if the GEFS can hold at 12z....I also think the Dec 10-15 is still a time to watch for a storm to pull sharply out of the GOM.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Think I am kidding about the warm overnight suites and afternoon? Look at the 18z 5 day C temp anomaly for days 10-15 on the GEFS. Then toggle it back to 0z from last night. Night and day differences for a five day period. And it is day10-15, so I cut the model some slack for sure. Just wanted to illustrate how different those two runs are. Now, if we can just get that 18z run to hold!
  10. Carvers Gap
    I think someone in one of the upslope areas should create an event thread or at least consider it. If it winds up being a bust, no problem. I think the Smokies are going to get sauced. Looks like Roan Mountain already has a heavy band up. I talked to someone in the foothill communities and they have rain already(prob will switch over). I will be shocked if actual valley locations get too much. That said, we could get a dusting to an inch. I never do well with upslope. Northwest facing communities on the Plateau and near the Smokies might do well enough to make a thread necessary. Heck, I will be living vicariously through you all anyway. Planning on maybe making a run up to Roan Mountain on Tuesday to see if I can get some snow pics.
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS again has positive run-to-run trends in the d8-15 range...heights are higher over Greenland, BN heights over the Aleutians. Let’s see if we can get several more runs like that. Been difficult to come by... Of note...a three wave pattern is depicted instead of four.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The oddity continues(probably coincidence)...and the 12z suite being cooler continues as the GEFS is quite a bit cooler IMHO over the lower 48 for the last half of the run. edit: I wouldn't say yet that it has broken with its recent continuity for d8-15, but its run-to-run change when compared to the 6z GEFS is pretty remarkable as it places more of a trough in the eastern half of the US. Oops!...I accidentally put that in the obs thread earlier. @TellicoWx had some great thoughts that followed. Yeah, the 12z Euro has cooled as well with favorable trends during the d8-10 rang at 500. We will see where the EPS goes...but the 12z suite is again favorable(so far) where the 0z was not as much. The run-to-run trends on the Euro are pretty good. Not sure I would say the models have flip-flopped...but if they were to hold that look for 3-4 more runs, then maybe that term might be applicable. I do agree with Tellico that climatology and ENSO are good counter balances to keep things steady. Climo does call for a warm December about 2/3 of the time for weak El Ninos...I also operate on the idea that nature tries to balance itself out as evidenced by the West having cold winters and the East some of the time. The East is due for a cold winter. While a warm December would certainly make my forecast from June look good....it wouldn't bother me one bit if it busted as being too warm. I think a warm call for December is still a good one...but the 12z suite does show a more favorable Pacific developing around the 10th. So, who knows!
  13. Carvers Gap
    The oddity continues(probably coincidence)...and the 12z suite being cooler continues as the GEFS is quite a bit cooler IMHO over the lower 48 for the last half of the run. edit: I wouldn't say yet that it has broken with its recent continuity for d8-15, but its run-to-run change when compared to the 6z GEFS is pretty remarkable as it places more of a trough in the eastern half of the US.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Was a pretty sketchy drive back from Knoxville last night as moderate rain feel most of the trip home. We fortunately hit a nice seam where only light rain was falling at one point. Lots of ponding water on the roadway. Creeks are full this morning. Pretty amazing the difference in the weather pattern from several weeks ago...seems to be no problem with nice rain totals now. Reminds me of last winter and spring. Just turn on the fire hose.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z GFS continues to advertise a potential storm period from Dec 10-15...hopefully we can get just enough of a cold source region to make that interesting.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Not a ton to add to Friday’s comments. Another less than favorable overnight run. Let’s we if the afternoon suites yet again look workable. Been an odd pattern in modeling for a couple of weeks. I don’t see a ton right now that shows cold making it this far south and holding. IMHO, going to have to wait until late December before things shake-up and maybe longer than that. As stated earlier, I do hold out hope that modeling does flip back. It could happen. The last seasonal Cansips is out today. It has flipped completely to a western winter for January and February. It has a sprawling ridge centered in the western Plains for December which encompasses most of the lower 48. Last year, winter modeling, excluding the Cansips I think, was almost universally cold in the East. So, TIFWIW. The SSW probably is going to input some chaos later this month. Seasonal modeling can be iffy at best...but has some skill if specifics are removed and one looks for general patterns.
  17. Carvers Gap
    And delay number 3...LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And second time the stadium has been cleared due by to storms. I blame the severe wx guys for this. LOL J/K!
  19. Carvers Gap
    I am too old to be sitting in the rain. In my younger days, I welcomed it. Then, I got older and smarter...well, somewhat smarter.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, bought some seats in the dry. Pays to be an AmWx regular. As soon as you all starting talking about this weekend, I knew I was going to buy them in the dry.
  21. Carvers Gap
    All of Neyland in the tunnels, folks. Doesn’t get much better than that. LOL.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Great to see so many folks talking weather on a Friday night! I generally follow a rule that the latitude that a storm enters the West coast is the generally the latitude that it exits. Get storms entering around Los Angeles and that is generally good track for the forum. Looks like we have some source region problems in terms of cold during that time of higher activity...The 18z GEFS looked workable. So, some good afternoon trends which fits a strange pattern of warm overnight model suites followed by cooler afternoon suites...least it seems that way to me.
  23. Carvers Gap
    That would be not one but two major storms during the d10-15 time frame on the 18z GFS. Now let's see if subsequent runs depict storm in that time frame...they won't be exactly the same due to it be in the LR - just a general stormy pattern will suffice. Might be we have to watch the timeframe from Dec10-15. JB mentioned it this AM, but I brushed it off as a passing comment. That said, plenty of storms parading underneath. Not a lot of cold to work with, but such are El Nino winters. El Nino winters can and do have snow during warm-ups. My thoughts on temps are not really any different...but it might be a fairly stormy period even with the 500 configuration.
  24. Carvers Gap
    ....And the 18z GFS "Happy Hour" rides again. The Miller A parade d10+...some warm, some cold.
  25. Carvers Gap
    So...it appears we are back to last year's discussion of a back-ended winter. I do think that works this year. We have kicked around some "benchmark analogs." I have no idea if we get close to those stellar winters. However, the MJO taking a very extended tour through the warm phases likely does a ton of damage to the PV. What that sets up is the PV being displaced during the second half of winter. Yeah, I know...that is (edit)four to six weeks away. However, many truly great winters didn't get going until mid-January. Do I think we go wall-to-wall warmth (for the duration of winter) after next week? No, but who knows. The weather has a way of humbling those who speak in absolutes as if they know what is coming next. I don't claim anything but my opinion...and it certainly does not have to verify as true. I like my forecast ideas that I posted back in June. If I was going to tweak them, I would bring January to normal. So, December would be AN. Jan would be normal to just above. Feb below normal. But I am not going to tweak them. Why? I still think cold(maybe very cold air) lurks during the second half of winter. Same conversation as last year...but this is not last year. The QBO should be descending instead of rising to positive. That is a big deal. Unfortunately, looks like we will have to weather 2-4 weeks of AN temps beginning around mid-Dec. If anything, I do think were are actually in a Nino pattern now as evidenced in that we are seeing highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Seems like much of the 90s had winters just like that, excluding some notable and well-discussed exceptions. So, if we are in a Nino pattern...should get Nino results which is backloaded winter and a warm December. Last winter, not sure the Nino ever coupled with the atmosphere. While it is certainly disappointing to see some warm ensembles and operational runs, it is no surprise. But who knows, maybe we flip back and what is being modeled is just a relaxation and not a pattern change...good question that we don't have an answer to just yet. Meanwhile, the SSW lurks.
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