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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    TRI recorded .1" of snow yesterday. Not significant other than it is the ninth time that TRI has recored a trace or more of snow since March 1st. After a "sweltering" couple of weeks during February, that is pretty impressive. Had to go to Johnson City yesterday to purchase a water heater(why does it always get cold when plumbing jobs are needed around my house?....). Some bands were really ripping as @Blue Ridge noted in the observation thread. I had to rent a Penske truck and trek from Kingsport to JC on I-26. The wind and snow were impressive. Rivers up here are very full, especially the North Fork of the Holston. @1234snow, you all must have had a lot more rain than us or maybe points northeast of that. April has thus far been pretty chilly as it is only about half a degree above our February temps...impressive for the second month of spring. The Weeklies still depict the "hangover" that @nrgjeff has mentioned. There is some moderation during May, but still looks pretty cool to me. They again hint at a switch to warm during late May/early June. Another item of interest is how dry the Plains looked during this run. The forum area appears to be normal or slightly above for precip. Still plenty of blocking up top....but if I remember correctly, blocking over Greenland gives a different result in the SE US once summer arrives. The 6z GEFS does show moderation. I do think that outside of the mountains that we have finally seen our last snow. I am only two weeks from the date that I normally set out my "warm crops" for the garden. Hey, @Stovepipe I planted some fava beans this spring. Definitely a new favorite for me in terms of how hardy they re when it is cold. They pretty much thrive in abysmal conditions. Hopefully they taste as advertised.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Rain mixing w snow here in Kingsport. Surely this has to be it for the snow. It has to end, right?
  3. Carvers Gap
    Excluding the last half week of the modeled time period, the 46 day Weeklies are wall-to-wall BN temps w AN precip over the entire forum area. Translation: lots of cold rain. Oh happy day. The one glimmer of hope...the Weeklies can have issues w long term modeling during spring and (edit) fall. The bad thing...the Weeklies have pretty much nailed the past six weeks.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Not sure the trough actually goes into the Southwest. More like the trough retreats to over the HB and a broad ridges builds underneath it. At that range, it could easily change. Weeks 5-6.5(on the Weeklies) are really just bonus clues. Precip looks normal for the four corners during mid-May. Might actually be a pattern where much of the US turns warm w seasonal temps and precip in the Southwest. @nrgjeff can likely clear that up.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Regarding TRI...Looking forward to TR, F, and S(70s to near 80) before returning to cold and rainy(highs in the 50s).
  6. Carvers Gap
  7. Carvers Gap
    @jaxjagman. Thanks for the heads-up regarding that thread. I reported it...not sure if that will help. I recommend others do so as well....just don't click the link. edit: Thread is gone! Thank you!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Here is an interesting stat...Here are a couple of mean temp comparisons at TRI. Through April 8th, April is colder than the February norm. February: 49.4 April(through April 8th): 49.2 (edit: down to 48.4 w/ the April 9 observation.) Bonus Stat: TRI did record another trace of snow last week. That marks the eighth time since March 1st that TRI has recorded a trace or more of snow.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies show a break towards an eastern ridge by mid-May. Until then, still a mean trough in the East as modeled by the 46 day Weeklies. Then, we may see a trend towards at least seasonal or warm in relation to the temperature norms. Have to admit the cold and rain is even taking its toll on me...and I like that type of weather. Those 80 degree summer days and warm nights in February seem like a distant mirage. LOL.
  10. Carvers Gap
    One last band of snow is moving through...best returns all day.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Had to do a double take...snow is falling here. Nothing big...but snow in April. Absolute bonus.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Total amounts on the 6z GFS through about 48(sorry, I cut off the hour)....then SW VA has another system that pulls through after this. I share the skepticism of everyone above...and yet, there it is. LOL. I also attached the Euro operational. Might as well track it...even if it is gone at 12z. Again, I am not sure this is the last one of these either. Like flash said, any snow is bonus snow. Even one flake.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Looks like NE TN and SW VA now could see snow (potentially falling after dark) unless I am misreading the times. I am always suspicious of snow modeled in April...but yet, there it is. IMHO, usually snow at this time of year will fall in a narrow band. Within that band there can be surprises. I am not quite ready to unleash that as a serious idea for TRI. The models ticked south overnight and have trended that way slightly with each of the last few runs(which runs counter to my original thinking). Now, do I think it will eventually move back north. I don't know now. With the event getting closer, it is possible that the modeling is now catching "real" trends...but I still suspect a move north as a final verification. Nevertheless on April 6th...I will now be watching the 12z suite to see if MBY will get snow tomorrow. @BlunderStorm, this would mark the seventh straight month of a trace or more, right? That is far more commentary than I originally meant to add...thanks to everyone for their discussion.
  14. Carvers Gap
    When the Nina hit the max low during the past two cycles....it was very, very dry (on the extreme end of things) here in the eastern Valley. Look at when the Gatlinburg fires occurred and when we hit that extraordinary dry spell during the winter that just passed. I think one thing that we can say is that a Nina coming after a super Nino will likely be warm. However, if it arrives after a weaker ENSO state, extremes will occur. Some good lessons likely to be learned from that graph. Was the winter of 10-11 warm or cold? Just wondering because that was a strong Nina after a strong Nino.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 240 hour nationwide, snow total maps on both the CMC and the GFS are crazy for April. They look like the dead of winter. As expected the GFS has ticked north with each run though the 12z CMC is now straddling the TN/KY border w 5" snow totals. What is crazy....I am not sure that is the last threat as it gets very cold. Would not be surprised to see snow flurries in the Valley and accumulations in the mountains at some point this month - maybe on multiple occasions. This is putting a serious glitch in my spring fishing. I was planning on going this weekend...but cold rain and 40ish temps may stop that.
  16. Carvers Gap
    MRX w/ a small comment on the early April event later this week...Pretty brave. I am not sure I would have had the courage to mention snow, even though the models indicated that there is some evidence to support it. 12z Euro had the snow axis in the same spot. The EPS had 2" of snow for NE TN. Surreal. Another front should move through Friday, then a wave may form on the front and keep significant chances for precipitation going through Saturday. Models indicate it may be cold enough for the rain to mix with snow later Friday night/early Saturday across northern areas especially higher terrain. Sunday looks to be between systems so should be drier, then another frontal system is forecast to approach by Monday.
  17. Carvers Gap
    We want this south of us and let it come back north...these spring storms almost always come back north. Has been a reliable trend this spring and for most springs. It really, really does not want to snow at this time of year....but if nature was throwing strikes, this one is trying to clip the high, outside corner. This storm is on the 0z/6z GFS, 0z CMC, 0z Euro, 0z GEFS, w the EPS still very light(but increased). Absolutely any snow is bonus snow from this point onward.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Have to think that the Canadian solution is about as far south as this can make it....and that it is more likely to see this system work north over time until it gets to northern KY or the Ohio river. Mountain snow and cold valley rain is likely.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I have my doubts considering we are basically talking about a snow mean for the first half of April! Anyway, here is the 16 day snow mean from the 18z GEFS. I truly doubt it verifies, but this is for posterity. Someday, when we are old geezers, we can say that we used to track snowstorms well into April back in the day. Weeklies....mainly cold w some moderation and then cold again. Viva la spring? Not often you get a 1-3" snow mean over a sizable portions of the forum area for April.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The average temp(lows and highs averaged together) for February at TRI was 49.4. The average through March 24th is 42.8 and is 3.0F below normal. KTRI recorded its 7th T or more of snow yesterday. We have nickel and dimed our way to 2.2" of snow in the NE Valley(more in Morristown areas) with some much bigger totals in the mountains and in southwest Virginia. In many cases, March had more snow than the rest of winter combined. At some point this spring, I will try to write a post-mortem on this winter and try to record what worked and didn't work. Right now, the ENSO state, MJO, QBO, strat warm, -EPO and -NAO were very good indicators....One thing that I want to delve into is whether the extreme warmth(which skewed an otherwise cold winter) during mid February is actually an antecedent indicator to the PV split. Hopefully, we will see more mountain snow before this is done. I really need to buy a cabin above 3000'.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Am I reading your snow totals correctly that you have had 9.7" of snow during March alone w nine days of a trace or more? Awesome.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The Weeklies are again about as cold I have seen them....below is the d11-18 time frame. The hangover from the strat warming and subsequent block is going to be tough to shake. Jeff had some great analogies in an earlier post regarding mountain beverages. It is really, really difficult to get it to snow in meaningful amounts from this point forward for lower elevations anywhere in the forum area. That said, I can't rule it out. I think climo just does not support it, and it usually wins. But seeing cold still on the map and also seeing models spit-out some big hitters from time to time...I just can't shake the idea that the pattern might have one more surprise. At minimum, the mountains look poised to potentially score more snow between now and late April. Today was just raw at times when the wind was blowing. I think lower elevation snows are done at this point...but again, that look(if it verifies) would likely have some close calls. While I certainly don't think snow chances continue into late April, the Weeklies are BN until almost May.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Just an observation...the 0z Euro and 6z GFS 500vort progression w the energy entering Northern California beginning in about 72 hours is interesting. Much different animal....no idea if true, but will watch with just slightly more than passing interest.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome. My inlaws live in the area...they have done pretty well this month.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Sugar Mountain has been open for most of the month of March and is open today. Pretty awesome.
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