Carvers Gap

12z Euro is rolling. Will split my commentary between two threads...the storm thread for tonight's potential even and then back here for the overrunning event. Will be interesting if the Euro finally moves to the CMC/GFS combo. Wasn't there overnight...so really looking for trends - especially if it speeds up the front next week or has more cold behind it.

Ditto that.

That is awesome and thanks. What the GEFS depicts is a glacier being built over the MidWest. The highs migrate to that cold. What folks can't see on that depiction is that the southern branch keeps attacking the base of that high. It is non-stop on that run. I am out to 270 on precip type, and it is just crazy. Basically the -NAO pushes confluence and cold over this region.

@Holston_River_Rambler, do you have the ability to make a GIF of the MSLP(not the anomaly, just MSLP) of the 12z GEFS? There is a 1054 hp on the ensemble over front range in Canada! The GEFS is just one system after another attacking cold which slowly(and I mean slowly presses eastward). The MSLP map(I know gif speed is an issue), but I think it does a good job of depicting all of this. The US or NA view should do it...just whichever one has that big high sling SE. Thank in advance if you are able and understood if you are too busy.

Need a "wow" emoji. Not a "good wow", but just "wow." That is craziness. Might be the only time I am glad to be inside of the little white circle in NE TN. Quite literally, I would be the only place in TN without ice...ya'll come on over if it gets bad!!!!

If the 12z Euro comes on board, likely time for a thread. This event literally lasts for a week on the GFS. So, looks like modeling has the cold again. As BNA notes, really tough to know where that boundary goes. Might even wait until 0z (to make a thread) to see if modeling continues to hone-in on this. But this is thread worthy if ever there was one - if it holds.

Just a nasty, nasty set-up.

The CMC reloads the ice pattern again for middle and west TN late in the run. My guess(and it is only that) is that modeling is underestimating the extend of the cold front. My gut says that cold slides along the surface for 100-150 miles further than what is shown there - if that model is even right. I can't decide right now if I want any part of that!!!!!

The Tropical Tidbits 12z GFS 258 snow accumulation map is full Euro from the other day...obviously it includes ice. But it is pretty hilarious. Nearly the entire state is green! Never seen anything like it.

Seems like TYS has been on or near that line all winter for several events.

Give me no part of the GFS at 246 - none at all. Want no part of that.

The 12z CMC now has a significant winter storm in middle and west TN at 126

12z CMC is continuing the trend of bumping up totals slightly, but especially on the Plateau.

Just glancing at the boundary, looks like the GFS has pressed it steadily southeastward since 0z. If trends hold from previous systems...it will keep pressing SE for a few more runs, then lift it back northwest, and then back SE a hair....been going on all winter.

The axis for ice has pressed about 50-100mi southeast(depending on location) on this run which surprises me as I though the initial onset was a bit warmer on the souther fringe of this. Massive hit for some areas. There are areas along the KY/TN border with 1.5+" of ice accumulation.

The axis for ice has pressed about 50-100mi southeast(depending on location) on this run which surprises me as I though the initial onset was a bit warmer on the souther fringe of this. Massive hit for some areas. There are areas along the KY/TN border with 1.5+" of ice accumulation.

Not sure. Would have to check. I just assumed it was a slight increase in the qpf.

Looks like west and middle TN are going to get hammered again on this run. As of 132, places in middle TN have 1" of ice accumulation on the 12z run of the GFS. Wow.

Yep. 12z GFS looks like it may double down on its 6z run...out to 108.

12z GFS on right and 6z on left for comparison.

12z GFS has a definite uptick in snow accumulation - both Kuchera and non-Kuchera. The 12z suite across the board has seen a slight uptick in general - so far.

For comparison, here is the 0z EPS for the 10-20th. Not a great signal but a weak signal. That does not take into account ice I don't think. So, one might wonder if the southern extent of that is indeed icy. Biggest takeaway I have is how far south the extent of frozen precipitation is....

Yeah, agree. Need it moving towards 8 or COD and then we get enough help from the Pac to push the cold eastward.

For reference, here is the 6z GEFS 10 day snow map beginning on Wednesday so as to eliminate tonight's shenanigans.

Very realistic and has occurred many times in the past....my guess it that is does bank against the Plateau(if the cold indeed pushes that far). Then a couple of fronts will likely press it onward. But the setup on modeling is a classic old school set-up for ice in western sub-forum areas. Used to happen like that when I was a kid and lived in Knoxville(70s). I share this often, but I used to think our cold came from due West, because Memphis was always coldest first w/ ice.