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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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12z Euro is rolling. Will split my commentary between two threads...the storm thread for tonight's potential even and then back here for the overrunning event. Will be interesting if the Euro finally moves to the CMC/GFS combo. Wasn't there overnight...so really looking for trends - especially if it speeds up the front next week or has more cold behind it.
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That is awesome and thanks. What the GEFS depicts is a glacier being built over the MidWest. The highs migrate to that cold. What folks can't see on that depiction is that the southern branch keeps attacking the base of that high. It is non-stop on that run. I am out to 270 on precip type, and it is just crazy. Basically the -NAO pushes confluence and cold over this region.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, do you have the ability to make a GIF of the MSLP(not the anomaly, just MSLP) of the 12z GEFS? There is a 1054 hp on the ensemble over front range in Canada! The GEFS is just one system after another attacking cold which slowly(and I mean slowly presses eastward). The MSLP map(I know gif speed is an issue), but I think it does a good job of depicting all of this. The US or NA view should do it...just whichever one has that big high sling SE. Thank in advance if you are able and understood if you are too busy.
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If the 12z Euro comes on board, likely time for a thread. This event literally lasts for a week on the GFS. So, looks like modeling has the cold again. As BNA notes, really tough to know where that boundary goes. Might even wait until 0z (to make a thread) to see if modeling continues to hone-in on this. But this is thread worthy if ever there was one - if it holds.
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The CMC reloads the ice pattern again for middle and west TN late in the run. My guess(and it is only that) is that modeling is underestimating the extend of the cold front. My gut says that cold slides along the surface for 100-150 miles further than what is shown there - if that model is even right. I can't decide right now if I want any part of that!!!!!
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Seems like TYS has been on or near that line all winter for several events.
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12z CMC is continuing the trend of bumping up totals slightly, but especially on the Plateau.
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Not sure. Would have to check. I just assumed it was a slight increase in the qpf.
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12z GFS on right and 6z on left for comparison.
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12z GFS has a definite uptick in snow accumulation - both Kuchera and non-Kuchera. The 12z suite across the board has seen a slight uptick in general - so far.
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Very realistic and has occurred many times in the past....my guess it that is does bank against the Plateau(if the cold indeed pushes that far). Then a couple of fronts will likely press it onward. But the setup on modeling is a classic old school set-up for ice in western sub-forum areas. Used to happen like that when I was a kid and lived in Knoxville(70s). I share this often, but I used to think our cold came from due West, because Memphis was always coldest first w/ ice.