Carvers Gap

I think what is happening is the SER is going to fight east of the Apps. To me, this looks like cold moving across the entire forum area and banking up against the Apps in reality. As BNA noted(think that is right) having a front draped SW to NE is a recipe for winter weather.

Big 1057 high in WY at 186.

1054 hp rolling in around 168. That is a nasty, nasty setup.

There may be 1" of liquid equivalent falling in the form of ice, sleet and snow in west TN. Also working into middle TN as well...

Middle and western forum folks might want to turn their attention to what is going on just after 100. I am keeping that conversation in the main thread, but that is an impressive mess!

That is a major overrunning event in middle and west TN which is being portrayed on the 12z GFS. Wave three of ice now inbound.

The 12z GFS has a light wintery mix over middle and western forum areas just after hour 100. There are at least two waves of this. Very icy look.

Agree.

Not to change the subject, but the GFS is much more impactful with the second system...will jump over to the other thread for that.

Additionally, we may be seeing the system experience some "sheer" from the Smokies. If it continues to back west, we get a better system and the sheer is reduced. Right now, the spine of the Smokies is just shredding the moisture transport into the region. One more shift, and I "think" that would improve.

The 12z CMC is going to be a good test. It has a very sharp snow axis gradient on its westward side. If it shifts, we should easily be able to see it.

I think we want a more consolidated system and better phase. Not sure if that happens, but that would overcome the downslope IMO. TYS and TRI really need the slp tracking more west of where it is. I don't think the backing will hurt us, but having a strung out system which is in two parts will cause all sorts of problems not the least of which is getting dry slotted.

Northerly component meaning the axis of snow has shifted more to a "due north" look than sliding to the NE. So, NNE vs just NE if that makes any sense.

The storm itself has a more northerly(vs east) component to it than it has had during the previous two runs on most modeling. In my book, a storm which is backing(and on the coast) is a good thing. Obviously we don't want it backing if it was in the Piedmont. Someone had suggested downscoping might be a factor, and that might be what we are seeing in the Central Valley. Not sure. A really consolidated storm like the NAM is what we need. These sort of strung out solutions where the phases is late or partial don't cut it. I think the trend is for a strengthening storm. Again, very little runway left as this begins tomorrow. Pretty big move west.

Both

Ninja. Was just typing this. Man, modeling is really backing west at 12z. The GFS is much closer to the coast in the NE which tells me this isn't done trending here. The western extent of the snow shield is expanding west on most modeling.

At 0z the snow axis went from SW NC to roughly Va Beach. At 12z it goes from the Plateau to Boston and is a legit winter storm for the NE with accumulations of 1' in the big cities. So the trend is a more expansive system and moving the snow axis NW due to further backing of the system. I have no idea what the end game is on this, but I don't think the RGEM has caught up.

The 12z RGEM is nearly 150 miles west of its 0z run with the westward expanse of its snow shield.

Overall, take some time to look at the snow accumulation trend since 0z. At 0z, Kentucky wasn't even in the game. The storm has trended the entire state of West Virginia to the west at that latitude. They system is not done on that accumulation map above.

Will be interesting to see if the RGEM continues to build on its solution from 6z.

Need to call a lawyer for this storm...I think I have whiplash due to so many reversals of reversals on modeling. LOL.

That is a consolidated SLP on the NAM. If real, that could get a lot stronger. I know what the pressure says on the coast but look at the shape of the storm. It is an expansive, comma shaped winter storm. Let’s see if any other modeling bites.

As John noted the RGEM went from a total whiff at 0z to a more substantial solution at 6z.

0z GEFS snow totals are impressive for the eastern half of the state. Chattanooga has a roughly 4-5" snow mean, TYS is 6-8", TRI is 8-10", Plateau is roughly 7-8", Nashville is 3-4", Memphis is almost 3", northern sections of the GOM states are 1-3", Arkansas is 3-4", and southern KY is 3.5 -8." That is through 324.

Improved run of the Euro at 0z.