Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Ninja. Was just typing this. Man, modeling is really backing west at 12z. The GFS is much closer to the coast in the NE which tells me this isn't done trending here. The western extent of the snow shield is expanding west on most modeling.
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At 0z the snow axis went from SW NC to roughly Va Beach. At 12z it goes from the Plateau to Boston and is a legit winter storm for the NE with accumulations of 1' in the big cities. So the trend is a more expansive system and moving the snow axis NW due to further backing of the system. I have no idea what the end game is on this, but I don't think the RGEM has caught up.
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The 12z RGEM is nearly 150 miles west of its 0z run with the westward expanse of its snow shield.
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Overall, take some time to look at the snow accumulation trend since 0z. At 0z, Kentucky wasn't even in the game. The storm has trended the entire state of West Virginia to the west at that latitude. They system is not done on that accumulation map above.
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Will be interesting to see if the RGEM continues to build on its solution from 6z.
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Need to call a lawyer for this storm...I think I have whiplash due to so many reversals of reversals on modeling. LOL.
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That is a consolidated SLP on the NAM. If real, that could get a lot stronger. I know what the pressure says on the coast but look at the shape of the storm. It is an expansive, comma shaped winter storm. Let’s see if any other modeling bites.
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As John noted the RGEM went from a total whiff at 0z to a more substantial solution at 6z.
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0z GEFS snow totals are impressive for the eastern half of the state. Chattanooga has a roughly 4-5" snow mean, TYS is 6-8", TRI is 8-10", Plateau is roughly 7-8", Nashville is 3-4", Memphis is almost 3", northern sections of the GOM states are 1-3", Arkansas is 3-4", and southern KY is 3.5 -8." That is through 324. -
Improved run of the Euro at 0z.
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Yep, great post and worth a read by everyone.
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Don't assume the western areas of the forum are left out of the frozen fun...mostly sleet and zr in addition to the amounts show. Tellico has already highlighted the ZR threat.
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Yeah, total mess. Fill in those blank areas in the sub-forum with either sleet or heavy snow.
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TYS also has 16" through 252.
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TRI has 16" with the Kuchera/WxBell through 252.
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Obvious at this point that modeling is struggling to find the Arctic boundary and also the strength of the cold. Still, nice look. BNA got me with the ninja! LOL edit.
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0z GFS has some foot totals on the Plateau from multiple events through 222. Pretty much the entire forum area has something. Eastern half gets hammered. We will see if that holds, but the signal for an overrunning event is still apparent on both the 0z GFS and ICON.
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Like someone turned a firehose loose on an Arctic boundary.
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0z is depicting multiple waves of wintery precip(the kitchen sink if you will) later next week. Impressive look.
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Quite similar and quite similar to the para gfs yesterday.
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Yep, 0z GFS has a significant overrunning event later next week.
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0z CMC has it now.
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0z GFS is setting up a multi-day overrunning event. Nearly impossible to know the details at this range, but not a bad look.
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Looks like the 0z suite(so far) is a slightly later phase and also a very slightly east coastal low. The 0z GFS looks similar to 18z but with maybe less precip.
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Cold air is just pouring over the pole on the 18z GFS.
