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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Seriously...that is a very cold run and supports those who have been talking about the potential for extreme cold.
  2. Carvers Gap
    After looking at the 18z GFS, I think I am just going to keep posting about how warm modeling looks after d13. That approach seems to be working for us this winter.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Webb had some stuff this AM about part of the TPV potentially heading south into the lower 48. Like Jeff said we just don't want it settling into the Rockies. With that said, when I was posting earlier, I didn't realize that the BN heights diving into the nation's mid-section were potentially the TPV. If that is the case, that changes the equation pretty significantly. I am not overly confident in a cold time frame after the 25th, but can definitely see the path to that point for sure if the TPV settles into southern Canada or the Lower 48 and slowly burns itself out.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I am pretty much half-a__ing it today in regards to posting. LOL -------> If I had watched the 12z GEPS finish running, I would have noted that it did eventually did double down in its cold. Just looking at the 500 pattern(no anomalies) that block is textbook and barely moving at all on the EPS. If anything it may attempt a full latitude trough in the lower 48. Been a while since we have seen a winter with one of those! So folks maybe need to take my posts with "low confidence" today - heck, maybe you do anyway. If so, you are wise.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I think we can hold the pattern through the 20th, maybe the 25, just based upon the 12z EPS. But eventually, the retrograding ridge into the West will allow ridging to belly underneath the eastern trough. My hope is on the -NAO holding on into early Feb before it fades quickly. Maybe(big maybe) we can survive the MJO orbit with the -NAO in place and then get it into 8, 1, 2 in early February as it fades.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Back to virtual school...reel int some of this, ya'll.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And thanks for throwing-in your input even though the pattern isn't great for your area. Always welcome!
  8. Carvers Gap
    With one week out, still a long way to go...but IF the Euro has that at 0z that may only get stronger and back some westward with time. That is a big storm.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro went from no snowstorm for the second storm to basically a huge snowstorm from NE TN to past DC.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Pretty massive change on the 12z Euro as Holston mentioned - massive. SLP jogged about 200 mi west on that run. One more jog, and that gets a lot of people involved.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Been pretty much COD all winter with some slight moves into 4/5. Looks a little more active. Probably going to see a pretty good fight in modeling where the trough is going to want to retrograde as the western ridge retrogrades into the Aleutians. Best we can hope for with that outcome is for part of the PV to drop into the Plains and spread eastward(saw that on the MA...not my material there...maybe snow goose?).
  12. Carvers Gap
    So, it pays to look at the surface. We don't live at 500. The GEPS and GEFS, which look decidedly less inviting at 12z at 500, are still quite cold at the surface as the feed from the Plains is undercutting any SE ridge at 500. So, I may have spoke a hair to soon. I do think the trough will retrograde west. Almost all Weeklies stuff is showing that and that look is around 300 hours on ensembles. That said, IF the trough sets up shop over Montana...we could still see cold air bleed eastward to the Apps. INDEED, verbatim that is a great pattern for middle and west TN. MJO is not a good look though...that hasn't changed.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Agree. I am not yet convinced MBY in NE TN sees much. Models are just all over the place. And yeah, the NW trend with this block will be tougher. For that to happen, really need a storm to get wound up.
  14. Carvers Gap
    For the first time in quite some time, starting to see a clear signal that the MJO is firing and potentially taking the warm tour. As we have seen with modeling at 12z, there should be nearly an immediate reaction after d10 with models depicting that. That is a big change. If true, the MJO will definitely want to retrograde the trough west and undercut it with a ridge across the southern tier.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Taking a lunch break...In the LR, looks like the ensembles are quickly retrograding the trough into the central areas of the country after 300 on both the GEPS and GEFS - not a huge change in continuity but some.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Virtual school bogging everything down here at the house(can't get anything done at all...not work and definitely not weather) - virtual just started back for the first time since August. We have worked our schedules so both of us can be home, but still not enough hands on desk with a house full of kiddos. Whew! Keep the fires burning...will check-in when I can. On top of virtual learning for young kids being terrible - no snow days now! LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro look really robust - complete opposite of the weaker GFS solution. Could be a bias of being too wound up...only goes out to 90 on the op but looked good.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Sorry. Entire run.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS and GEFS ensembles are about as beefy as one might see for tis time of year. GEFS has 2+" for pretty much the entire state - more in many places. EPS is less but still a great signal.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looked like a reasonable chance for much E TN for storm one - not a huge snow, but 2-3" for valley locations and much higher on the Plateau and Smokies. Tough sometimes to decide if higher elevation amounts skew the lower elevations between the mountains and Plateau. Storm one is much more of a slider with backside snow. Storm two was basically snow turning to rain with WAA and a perfect track - highly doubt that happens with HP sitting over the top. Would likey be ice if that switched over from snow.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I told tnweathernut the other day that we are about to go old school. LOL!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Has it actually verified? I don't the answer to that. LOL. Sometimes systems with very little steering current will do that. Sometimes modeling just doesn't know where to put the low. It happens sometimes with systems when they hit the benchmark for NE winter storms. Hey, maybe Memphis is the new winter storm benchmark! In all seriousness, good luck to you west TN folks getting something. You all have definitely waiter your turn!
  23. Carvers Gap
    And let me say, some GREAT trends on modeling at 12z! I just don't trust the GFS right now. Toggle(back in time) the first system as it goes through North Carolina - just all over the place. That said, the GFS has not been terrible until last week. Certainly looks like modeling wants to produce a Miller A for system two. Just with seven days to go, going to be tough to nail down a system while modeling is still adjusting to the block. Again though, good trends. As expected at this range...details are still up for grabs.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC actually cuts the second system through middle TN. Would be a great track for west TN. While I am unsure about NE TN, does look like the somebody in the subform may score with one or both of the next two systems.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Again, I think we need to be very careful with the GFS. It trended a system from WV to nearly Colorado last week. Right now, the trend could be the opposite. I don't think it is handling the block well. The 12z GFS Para on Pivotal looks a lot more reasonable. As soon as one see the loop to loop(GFS regular) in Arkansas for the first system...have to think that solution is less likely.
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