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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    What we need is what the Euro op is advertising is that we can get just enough feed in eastern Canada that sneaks into the eastern trough - essentially gets pinched off(yeah, I know! LOL) as the cold air evacuates. Would give us enough cold for storms until maybe Canada is re-seeded mid to late month. One positive note is that the NCEP MJO models "appear" to be moving to the colder Euro MJO. The EMON yesterday goes into 2 and then rotates back through the colder areas of the COD and back towards colder phase - much different than the GEFS. So, for me I am riding with the EPS almost completely in the LR. The GEFS/GFS has really struggled of late.
  2. Carvers Gap
    One thing I am also noticing is that the strong cyclones over the Bering Sea/Aleutians are acting like a pump which turns counter clockwise and just evacuates the cold from central and western Canada back into Siberia during the next week. So, we are left with marginally cold air in the SE of Pacific origins in order to get the job done. That can happen, but just makes the job that much tougher. And admittedly, some great snow patterns have occurred when cold sources were marginal.
  3. Carvers Gap
    That said, there are a couple of windows for storms, but the track is going to have to be perfect. See one window around the 8th and another about 5-6 days later.
  4. Carvers Gap
    One thing I am noticing at 12z...the cold air source is very lacking. Growing concern. Pattern at 500 is as advertised and even forecast to occur just a few days earlier than what was modeled just a few days ago - just very little cold air in Canada to pull from. The 12z EPS actually has the cold in Canada rotating back to Siberia over the next several days. Source for cold is the Pacific on modeling at 12z. I think by later this month that improves, but waiting on a pattern is an all to familiar practice and risks losing the 500 pattern by the time the cold air gets here. Looks like a reload on the EPS is modeled to BEGIN mid-month for Canada. Unless something major changes, think we are waiting until after the 20th for enough cold without having to thread the needle. It can still snow with this block, but it is going to be finesse stuff. Don't think we see a truly cold North American pattern until later this month at best - all of the cold is bottled up in Siberia and barely moving by the end of the EPS run which is Jan 16th. Again, good pattern...cold air severely lacking.
  5. Carvers Gap
    46 day snow mean. Notice how far south it has snow. That tells us there is some decent cold embedded in that run. Looks like sliders, hybrid, and inland Miller As for that run as evidenced by the snow map.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have a that look(above) until they break during the second week of February and stick the trough back West. We take - if real.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies from Jan 9 - Feb 9 are normal for surface temps(minor miracle considering the warm bias of the Weeklies) and the 30 day 500 pattern for the same time frame looks like this:
  8. Carvers Gap
    Some big differences between the ECMWF and American suite of modeling in terms of the MJO. Euro is much colder, and is reflected this afternoon by its ensemble. I probably lean Euro - mainly because I like its colder pattern! Yeah, I am biased in this case....
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has moved up the return to a better pattern from Jan 10th to the 7th.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC implies a couple of wintery threats beginning round the 8th.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Still having to dodge ice/snow when out running. Snow still on the north facing slopes of valleys. So, that is seven straight days with some snow on the ground here(some was still in the garden this morning).
  12. Carvers Gap
    Big thing, as Jeff noted a day or so a go(and I was privately skeptica but that was a good, little nugget!), is ridging is building back into AK. That is a much needed change. Additionally, there is a low over the Aleutians which is 100% the opposite of last year. If one was to draw-up a map for snow in this forum area, that is one of the looks.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks really good. 12z CFSv2 also does. Very positive changes at high latitudes in regards to blocking(which was already good)
  14. Carvers Gap
    Just forces everything underneath like we have had for the last month. Systems take the low road. The real question is whether we can get enough cold into the pattern. If we can get the cold, that would be a very wintery pattern. If not..cold rain and elevation snow. For now, I think we will see more events to track if the SSW works in our favor. I would actually be just fine with a PV that is knocked off center vs a total split. The only danger in this is that the trough dumps into the West and holds. That happened in 18-19 during that SSW, and also did that a couple of times during November without an SSW.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Great look.
  16. Carvers Gap
    If correct, that is an awesome winter pattern.
  17. Carvers Gap
    That forecasted temp at hour 6 is 108 degrees colder than my forecast high of 45 today.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Did some digging as well. This is from the Euro overnight. Sorry for the small thumbnail. Around hour 6, looks like eastern Russian is -52.9C which is about -63F. That is craziness. Looks like one, giant high pressure complex over Eastern Asia.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I should add that breaks in continuity are not bad. Sometimes a model will break from the pack and be right, and sometimes it will be just be an outlier which doesn't verify. Right now, the EMON MJO is an outlier. However, how many times we have seen the Euro be an outlier only to win that battle? Once the SSW (will it split?) is felt, I have seen modeling flip on a dime. That can be good(Euro Weeklies yesterday, GEFS extended last night, 0z CFSv2 overnight) or bad (6z CFSv2 which is running now). Wouldn't panic with one CFSv2 run. Bounces around often during the same four runs of a single day. The real thing to watch is the BN heights that slide through the SW and into the East beginning around the 10th. If this goes the way of the Weeklies last night(and 0z EPS), that piece of energy should slide under the eastern ridge, form a trough in the East, pop a slight ridge around Southern California. The 6z CFSv2 does show how this could go wrong. Basically, the area of BN heights simply can't break through the eastern ridge, and the trough forms out West. There is precedent for troughs being forecast in the East only to end-up out West - happened twice during November already. I lean Euro right now. The only pause I have is that the GEFS/GFS has done pretty well with previous strat splits. However, it is January and the Euro is tough to beat once shoulder season is over. Pretty exciting times to be following the weather. Sure, there is possible dud option sitting on the table(that option is always there) and there is the potential for a really good winter pattern which is probably more likely than the dud. What will be exciting is some of the wild swings possible now on modeling. The close we get to this SSW, the more modeling will feel its influence. Sure seems like some things are breaking in our favor. However, we might not be completely certain of that until say Jan 3rd or 4th.
  20. Carvers Gap
    What are the surface reports under that in terms of temps?
  21. Carvers Gap
    Two very distinct MJO camps right now. First one is the EMON which came out yesterday(Euro LR). That is a BIG break in continuity for it. This one is the NCEP GEFSBC from this morning. Pretty steady. Sorry for the different sized photos. Thought I had them resized similarly. Anyway, those two solutions would create basically two, entirely different patterns over North America. That is a massive break from continuity by the EMON.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Good trends on today's GEFS extended as well. Similar look aa the Weeklies. Really hoping that modeling is feeling the disruption of the PV.
  23. Carvers Gap
    If one looks at the last week of the 18z GEFS, it has remarkable agreement with the Euro Weeklies.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome.
  25. Carvers Gap
    There are some nice weeks like BullCity posted. The thing I find encouraging is that the actual beginning of the pattern is on ensembles. Seems like the past few winters have featured Weeklies patterns which stayed 2-3 weeks out and never got closer. If I was looking for a problem, the only concern I would have is that some good looks in November dumped into the West after first being depicted for the East. The Weeklies seem to split the difference between the November and December pattern and also fits SSW climatology in terms of blocking as you and Holston have mentioned (Jeff as well). I don't like the MJO setup right now, but the SSW and -NAO could counterbalance that. Encouraging run for sure!
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