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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, very possible. Grit is really good. I kind of think the pattern at 500 holds(with maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time), but not saying that definitively - just spitballing. The trick is can we get true cold into the pattern before it changes up - not cold front cold but cold that has 1-2 weeks duration? Think it is very possible that we have a very good pattern from Jan 15 to Feb 5. I just don't want folks to get their hopes up like the past few winters! It is very possible we thread the needle prior to that. GFS is way too progressive. I think the Euro and CMC hold some promise late during week 2.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just took a look at the 12z EPS snow mean - looks very elevation dependent IMBY. Now, the 12z GEPS ensemble snow mean is a different story, It implies a very good pattern(north of I-40) after the 10th. That pattern would be absolute money. The one thing about Canadian modeling is that it has done really well with the past two snows IMBY.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Definitely cold in northern Canada right now, that is not what I am saying. What I am noting is that nearly all of it rotates over the pole between d3-10 - see FRD's gif which I shared. So, that is basically going to delay the eastern trough having cold until maybe weeks 3-4 unless we can do what the Euro op does between d8-10 with cold draining alone eastern Canada. And as noted, the GFS(not the para) is struggling. The problem in valley areas, is we can't depend on elevation to get snow. We usually have to have a decent cold source. The past two snows are great examples of that. Both had incoming cold sources which fueled the changeover. I do agree (for now) that this appears to be a temporary problem or Canada which is solved by mid-month in regards to cold refueling Canada. So the message is this...Cold is in northern Canada now...the coldest air is going to leave quickly due to the Aleutians low and head over the pole to Siberia...and then very gradually return after mid-month into NA. Now, I am not making the claim that(when it returns) the cold comes into the East as the 500 pattern could change by then - not getting in a foxhole with a week 3 500 forecast from any model. LOL. Assuming the Weeklies are correct, the cold should feed into an eastern trough. But memories of the November head fakes temper my expectations just enough, and that is not without minor model support. The past two runs of the CFSv2 actually place a ridge(WAR) in the East after the 10th, but that model is swinging wildly. 0z was completely opposite for it. Likely the CFSv2 is handling the MJO differently(maybe incorrectly). Again, there are some big differences in the MJO between American and Euro modeling. We essentially need the 500 pattern which will be in place around Jan 5th to hold until the cold from Canada can reload the eastern trough mid-month. I do think we need to watch any cold front that manages to form as the last two snows have been been along those fronts.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Found it Holston....Watch the cold just get lifted out of Canada by the Bering Sea cyclones. Also, watch a bit of cold slide down through eastern Canada. Just click on "FRD replied to topic." That might hold us over until Canada can become more favorable from a temp stand point later in Jan.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Are you able to do a gif of the Euro operational of just 850 temps (no anomalies) from the same pole view. That would really show what is happening over western/central Canada.
  6. Carvers Gap
    What we need is what the Euro op is advertising is that we can get just enough feed in eastern Canada that sneaks into the eastern trough - essentially gets pinched off(yeah, I know! LOL) as the cold air evacuates. Would give us enough cold for storms until maybe Canada is re-seeded mid to late month. One positive note is that the NCEP MJO models "appear" to be moving to the colder Euro MJO. The EMON yesterday goes into 2 and then rotates back through the colder areas of the COD and back towards colder phase - much different than the GEFS. So, for me I am riding with the EPS almost completely in the LR. The GEFS/GFS has really struggled of late.
  7. Carvers Gap
    One thing I am also noticing is that the strong cyclones over the Bering Sea/Aleutians are acting like a pump which turns counter clockwise and just evacuates the cold from central and western Canada back into Siberia during the next week. So, we are left with marginally cold air in the SE of Pacific origins in order to get the job done. That can happen, but just makes the job that much tougher. And admittedly, some great snow patterns have occurred when cold sources were marginal.
  8. Carvers Gap
    That said, there are a couple of windows for storms, but the track is going to have to be perfect. See one window around the 8th and another about 5-6 days later.
  9. Carvers Gap
    One thing I am noticing at 12z...the cold air source is very lacking. Growing concern. Pattern at 500 is as advertised and even forecast to occur just a few days earlier than what was modeled just a few days ago - just very little cold air in Canada to pull from. The 12z EPS actually has the cold in Canada rotating back to Siberia over the next several days. Source for cold is the Pacific on modeling at 12z. I think by later this month that improves, but waiting on a pattern is an all to familiar practice and risks losing the 500 pattern by the time the cold air gets here. Looks like a reload on the EPS is modeled to BEGIN mid-month for Canada. Unless something major changes, think we are waiting until after the 20th for enough cold without having to thread the needle. It can still snow with this block, but it is going to be finesse stuff. Don't think we see a truly cold North American pattern until later this month at best - all of the cold is bottled up in Siberia and barely moving by the end of the EPS run which is Jan 16th. Again, good pattern...cold air severely lacking.
  10. Carvers Gap
    46 day snow mean. Notice how far south it has snow. That tells us there is some decent cold embedded in that run. Looks like sliders, hybrid, and inland Miller As for that run as evidenced by the snow map.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have a that look(above) until they break during the second week of February and stick the trough back West. We take - if real.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies from Jan 9 - Feb 9 are normal for surface temps(minor miracle considering the warm bias of the Weeklies) and the 30 day 500 pattern for the same time frame looks like this:
  13. Carvers Gap
    Some big differences between the ECMWF and American suite of modeling in terms of the MJO. Euro is much colder, and is reflected this afternoon by its ensemble. I probably lean Euro - mainly because I like its colder pattern! Yeah, I am biased in this case....
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has moved up the return to a better pattern from Jan 10th to the 7th.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC implies a couple of wintery threats beginning round the 8th.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Still having to dodge ice/snow when out running. Snow still on the north facing slopes of valleys. So, that is seven straight days with some snow on the ground here(some was still in the garden this morning).
  17. Carvers Gap
    Big thing, as Jeff noted a day or so a go(and I was privately skeptica but that was a good, little nugget!), is ridging is building back into AK. That is a much needed change. Additionally, there is a low over the Aleutians which is 100% the opposite of last year. If one was to draw-up a map for snow in this forum area, that is one of the looks.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks really good. 12z CFSv2 also does. Very positive changes at high latitudes in regards to blocking(which was already good)
  19. Carvers Gap
    Just forces everything underneath like we have had for the last month. Systems take the low road. The real question is whether we can get enough cold into the pattern. If we can get the cold, that would be a very wintery pattern. If not..cold rain and elevation snow. For now, I think we will see more events to track if the SSW works in our favor. I would actually be just fine with a PV that is knocked off center vs a total split. The only danger in this is that the trough dumps into the West and holds. That happened in 18-19 during that SSW, and also did that a couple of times during November without an SSW.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Great look.
  21. Carvers Gap
    If correct, that is an awesome winter pattern.
  22. Carvers Gap
    That forecasted temp at hour 6 is 108 degrees colder than my forecast high of 45 today.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Did some digging as well. This is from the Euro overnight. Sorry for the small thumbnail. Around hour 6, looks like eastern Russian is -52.9C which is about -63F. That is craziness. Looks like one, giant high pressure complex over Eastern Asia.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I should add that breaks in continuity are not bad. Sometimes a model will break from the pack and be right, and sometimes it will be just be an outlier which doesn't verify. Right now, the EMON MJO is an outlier. However, how many times we have seen the Euro be an outlier only to win that battle? Once the SSW (will it split?) is felt, I have seen modeling flip on a dime. That can be good(Euro Weeklies yesterday, GEFS extended last night, 0z CFSv2 overnight) or bad (6z CFSv2 which is running now). Wouldn't panic with one CFSv2 run. Bounces around often during the same four runs of a single day. The real thing to watch is the BN heights that slide through the SW and into the East beginning around the 10th. If this goes the way of the Weeklies last night(and 0z EPS), that piece of energy should slide under the eastern ridge, form a trough in the East, pop a slight ridge around Southern California. The 6z CFSv2 does show how this could go wrong. Basically, the area of BN heights simply can't break through the eastern ridge, and the trough forms out West. There is precedent for troughs being forecast in the East only to end-up out West - happened twice during November already. I lean Euro right now. The only pause I have is that the GEFS/GFS has done pretty well with previous strat splits. However, it is January and the Euro is tough to beat once shoulder season is over. Pretty exciting times to be following the weather. Sure, there is possible dud option sitting on the table(that option is always there) and there is the potential for a really good winter pattern which is probably more likely than the dud. What will be exciting is some of the wild swings possible now on modeling. The close we get to this SSW, the more modeling will feel its influence. Sure seems like some things are breaking in our favor. However, we might not be completely certain of that until say Jan 3rd or 4th.
  25. Carvers Gap
    What are the surface reports under that in terms of temps?
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