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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
  2. Carvers Gap
    Definitely an interesting time for sure. Thanks for the data. Yeah, it looks almost like the same set-up. Would be the third one this month of that type - old school right there. Used to happen way back...not as much these days. I wonder with the -NAO if it is slowing systems down enough that the cold catches the precip...have to think it has something to do with the block.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Just digging back through this thread, the GFS and Euro almost nailed this from ten days out. My big take away is that Arctic fronts bring good things(this year anyway) if they are real on modeling. So, we can’t tuck that one away in case we see a similar setup again this winter, and I would guess we might.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The Euro OP straight nailed this from 9 days out. LOL
  5. Carvers Gap
    I like this map from the CFSv2 for January. It looks a lot like the Weeklies Canadian which came out last night. I think there will be times when a trough rolls through and after that a ridge rolls through and maybe connects to the -NAO. That, in turn, will create some nice weather at time’s. However, one thing which seems like a constant is this look. Sometimes it has the small ridge out west and sometimes it doesn't. This pattern looks remarkably similar to the set-up which just produced this current storm. Going to see some cutters with that look. Likely will see some coastals if it verifies. This is the kind of pattern that has an outside chance of opening the Arctic, letting cold slide south, and then trapping it under that ridge. That happens at times. Right now, afternoon ensembles have a +PNA, -NAO,- and -AO. Get some normal temps into the SE for January, and we might have some more chances. You can pretty much see the storm track on that map. Verbatim, that wold give our folks in the western sub-forum some chances as well. Those tracks would have some cutters, sliders, and coastals. Needs some cold in that pattern for things to be really good, but that map is workable...not exceptional but workable.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS with "Cold Catching Rain Sequel" on NYE. LOL. That would make like three times that has happened in a month. Old timers around here used to tell me when I was little that often the best snows came immediately after heavy rain during the winter. This has been an "old school" month for weather: -NAO, cold catching the rain, and an early start to winter.
  7. Carvers Gap
    What would be gold would be to have the TPV split, head south, and get locked under that block right there.
  8. Carvers Gap
    That is how it should look. That is better than good. As a friend noted, a ridge may roll through from time to time...but that is how a block should look. Not sure I have a seen a block that intense last for that long. Yesterday's system of cold catching rain was old school. That look right there is old school. I think modeling is feeling that unfavorable MJO, but the very favorable -NAO is balancing this Sith/Jedi pattern in the LR - where there is one, there is another. Well, something like that...
  9. Carvers Gap
    Several snow showers today in the wake of yesterday's system. Wind chills at TRI are at 4F. I suspect they are near or below zero here. Wind has been howling off and on during the past 30 mins. Coldest day in a long time. Awesome!!!
  10. Carvers Gap
    And just like that the GEFS and GEPS are back to a workable look at 12z.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And just like that the GEFS and GEPS are back to a workable look at 12z. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Further on d10+.. The 0z EPS allows a -EPO (not strong but there) to pop. That fits with it flirting with phases 3-4 of the MJO but going back into the COD where it is now. The GEFSBC takes the MJO into 3 and 4 at low amplitude. Now the GEFS, EMON, and ECMWF don't go there while the EMOM does. The IO firing is likely causing this. Question is, does it propagate in 5-6 or goes into COD/goes quiet. Throw in an SSW along with a wicked strong -NAO and not a ton of analogs which match this setup (warm NE PAC to start winter...think I had been saying incorrectly NW PAC - sorry)...and one gets pretty crazy looking ensembles. Lots going on which might lead me to think a single pattern may not lock-in for January. Merry Christmas, everyone!
  13. Carvers Gap
    For now, I lean 0z EPS on its depiction or maybe the 0z GEPS.
  14. Carvers Gap
    LR thoughts...posted them in the Dec thread but will link them here in the new thread. Changes in global ensembles (2 posts)....
  15. Carvers Gap
    Re: d10+ Yeah, the MJO is being handled quite differently by the Euro vs American suite....That said, there is a trend to take the MJO in phases 3 and/or 4 - that is a change. The amplitude in which that might happen is the question. That means the Pacific would revert to trying to force a trough into the West. The strongly negative NAO would counterbalance that. Modeling handles those dualing signals differently. The 6z GEFS is connecting the NAO to an eastern ridge. The EPS undercuts the NAO and allows a trough in the West but also allows the storm track to stay further south east of the Mississippi. We definitely need to be pulling for the EPS. Thing is, the EPS was flirting with the GEFS scenario a few days ago. It would not surprise me to see a trough in the West as Nina winters do favor that. The real question is whether that trough buries itself deep into the West of centers itself further north and has a NW to SE orientation. Lots of questions and very low confidence after the New Year. Again again, modeling has been wrong about the eastern ridge for nearly this entire month....nothing is set in stone right now. With this strat warm stuff...modeling may be haywire for some time.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Next two posts related to day 10+... Not great trends for sure overnight with two global ensembles. Guessing(haven’t looked) that the MJO is unfavorable. 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS have a less than ideal NAO setup which can happen. Not sure that holds but is something you might see sometimes during summer where the NAO connect to an eastern ridge. The 0z EPS is actually a very good setup. The good thing about the EPS is that this is the time of year where it is much more dependable in the LR. With the strat getting hammered...models are going to be all over the place. I do think I we may see a time of ridging just after the New Year maybe around the end of week 1 and into week 2 - but that is not a given. Nina winters tend to have very warm spells at times. But I wouldn’t sweat it at this range...models have been predicting warmups for about a month and hasn’t occurred yet. That NAO is likely going to win a lot of battles if it holds...Will check the MJO later. It has been trending poorly for a few days and will battle a favorable Atlantic.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville, TN, has scored twice during December. You all are racking up down there!
  18. Carvers Gap
    Running just north of 4" of snow. With so much blowing earlier, tough to find a spot to measure that wasn't in the lee of a big tree. Things have settled down now. Just waiting for snow showers to fire, and put a top on the new snow. Great day! Great to hear all of the observations from everyone.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Man, we put 3 min in today while it was...raining. LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, snow showers should persist off and on until about lunch tomorrow. TRI may have one last batch in the morning... Pretty much perfect weather for Christmas. Rare day to see heavy rain turn to heavy snow.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we were always last to the party here. Looks like thing let up here between 9:30-10:00.
  22. Carvers Gap
    About 2.75" at the house...maybe more.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It is flat ripping flakes here in Kingsport right now.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Here you go. Bounced up by about an inch in TRI valley locations. Not sure it gets that good, but never hurts to see a model go "up" at the last minute. Future runs will likely be less as it is snowing now.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I see what you mean 5-6" totals. Think it is overdone though.
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