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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM looks like it is super similar...
  2. Carvers Gap
    Great catch. You can see it on the 500 vort map. Never would have noticed it on the 3k NAM.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that upped the totals over the areas some.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the NAM(3K and 12k) are a very slight tick west of their previous runs. I like that trend west, because I don't like seeing storms begin to slide eastward on modeling.
  5. Carvers Gap
    12z NAM is running. Both the 12k and 3K look good. Overall setup is still the same. 12K is slightly less. The 3k NAM is pretty amazing to watch. Some of us started doing this when pixels might be 50-100k. So seeing a storm in 3K is pretty awesome. Looks like it held for you Knoxvvile folks.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Kuchera Euro 0z...
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looking like the Euro will hold serve. Haven't seen accumulations, but evolution of the system appears very similar. Only thing of concern, the actual weather on the ground appears much quicker (as 1234 noted) than modeling is grasping.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Christmas Eve 0z Euro is rolling....
  9. Carvers Gap
    Seems much faster than predicted... UKMET...pretty good step back which might reflect that concern. UK has admittedly been consistently the weakest of most modeling.
  10. Carvers Gap
    10:45 MRX Updtate... .DISCUSSION... Showers have increased dramatically across middle Tennessee ahead of mid level trough as intense low pressure area over the western Great Lakes moves into southern Canada and the associated cold front is now moving into west Tennessee late this evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms was moving through west Tennessee at this time. Strong south to southeast winds from the pressure gradient from higher pressure over western North Carolina to the lower pressure west of the eastern mountains was producing wind gusts already above 60 mph and winds to around 35 to 40 mph have occurred in isolated spots in the valley. Have sped up timing of the higher pops slightly with update from southwest to northeast and bumped lows up a degree or two over southern and central valley. Temperatures are being held up in many places by the winds and lows may have already occurred over the northeast half of the area...or will occur around sunrise when cold front moves through western sections of the forecast area. Updated forecast sent. Will update WSW and SPS products shortly.
  11. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 0z GEFS ensemble mean is a pretty decent improvement from 18z.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Not saying this is going to happen, bu the GEFS extended which comes out each evening was really a great looking pattern for much of its run.
  13. Carvers Gap
    ...And when I say "holds serve," I generally mean the storm is still there, trends haven't completely altered the idea of where the storm was depicted during previous runs, the synoptic set-up is still pretty much the same, and accumulations are generally where they were placed during the previous runs. Looks like the CMC might have indeed shaved some off the southwest edge near south/middle TN. Overall, the look is pretty similar on the 0z CMC.
  14. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC looks like it is going to hold serve again.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just drank some Mayfield's eggnog. Man, the wind is howling here.
  16. Carvers Gap
    That little lee side low might be a bit stronger as well, and is being better depicted as we get closer.
  17. Carvers Gap
    LOL, just now saw your comment. Snowbird's comment was the one that got me to thinking, and I was referring to that. And yes, very much agree with you and snowbird. I was just thinking it is not so much an adjustment in track as it is in flow backing...and your comment is spot on as well. When a slp forms, modeling has trouble with the NW quadrant. Will be a triumph in modeling if globals and mesoscale models successfully depict a finesse situation like a lee side low. Modeling has come a long way.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The models and digital stuff that I take to with me from this point onward are these: a couple of more runs of the Euro, the RGEM, the ARW, and radar returns. I just keep it simple with those four. All we can do at this point is monitor trends. Most good storms have an uptick in good trends right up to the event as models don't seem to ever catch-up to good storms. No idea if that happens with this. Depending on a lee side low is tricky business, but most modeling has it and climatology support that on a strong front like this per MRX.
  19. Carvers Gap
    WRF-ARW now has this... had been all over the place. Good model and we needed it on board in some fashion or another. You know, I am not sure this is really trending west as much as the lee side low is backing the flow of the storm. That is causing the flow to back just enough that the cold catches the precip and then orographic lift does its thing as well.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Need to go out further on that RGEM...there is more.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Good trends so far for TYS.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Here is the video update from MRX which they did at 7:00PM. There are couple of slides which show when the changeover is in various places. Very helpful and should answer your question almost to the minute for Kingsport. Yeah, that is a high degree of difficulty with snow on it!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Meaning expanding the warning area?
  24. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro basically shifts the entire precip axis back west maybe 75 miles...even in Ohio.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like it is a bit slower, between hour 27 and 30 the line hits the valley and backs/slows down and precip depeens over the eastern valley. Overall, the line just looked a bit more robust. Lee side low drops to 999 vs 1001.
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