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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Let me give it a look.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Crap. Mislabeled! That is the 18z Euro!!!!
  3. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro **edit**. Decent uptick in accumulations and increase in amounts along the western edge of 12z accumulations.
  4. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro has come a bit west. Nice, nice run.
  5. Carvers Gap
    MRX updated snow map...
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS was putrid as was its ensemble. 6z was similar. So, 12z seems to be the outlier for that model during the past couple of days. Wonder if it is its progressive nature? Other modeling seems to be fairly settled.
  7. Carvers Gap
    18k NAM on board for NE TN. 3K NAM is going nuts - worth a look if you live from Knoxville or eastward.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is pretty much an awesome post right there.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Which wx office handles Dickenson Co?
  10. Carvers Gap
    If I could cash out now, I would take it. Add in the cold and winds....going to fire up the wood stove and enjoy Christmas. I am a little concerned about power if we were to get heavier snow along with wind and cold. But hey, let's roll.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Good find. Told tnweathernut he brought some good mojo this morning! LOL. If we can get any kind of ridge to pop out West, we are in business. I am not a huge fan of the 12z GEPS run, but it may just be noise at that range.
  12. Carvers Gap
    TRI Those emails are the best - little Festivus Day Miracle.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Right out of the gate, the 12z Euro seems just a hair faster with the energy over the Rockies.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is rolling.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Probably will depend on the Euro. Super tough call. This affects a ton of travel plans - they will understandably want to be as sure as possible in making the call.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS has a snow mean of 1.5-2" for NE TN. That is actually an increase....been very slowly creeping upward. Traditionally is a very conservative ensemble.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS mean...12z on left. 6z on right.
  18. Carvers Gap
    It has been so long since we have had a -NAO (strength, duration), almost tough to remember. LOL!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Four runs ago, the UKMET had pretty much nothing over even the TRI.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z UKMET (non-Kuchera) is a bit beefier and a tick further west w/ 2-4" from MRX to TRI. East Knox Co has measurable snow depicted on this run - just an inch but better than 0z.
  21. Carvers Gap
    For those new to the forum, I like to use a side-by-side comparison(an overlay would be better...but don't have access to that) of storm totals. 12z CMC is on the left. 6z is on the right. I say "held serve" in a sense that it still has the storm, similar accumulation amounts(we know those will likely be lower or even much lower), and the storm is still vigorous as it exits. Totals are down a hair which is to be expected. What we don't want to see are large scale drop-offs as this could indicate a change in intensity, track, moisture transport(I do worry that storms along the GOM could cut off some precip into our forum area), etc. The green axis is roughly the old "purple 6" line. So, one can see that the precip axis to our north moved east slightly. The pivot in south middle TN has stayed nearly the same. Overall storm totals have been circled - a slight decrease is noted. This is upper end of the envelop as cold arrives more quickly. It definitely has a bias for cold, so that tells us changeover will likely occur further east in the forum area - so cut totals and shift east. Lastly, the ARW mesoscale model shows how none of us could get snow - again, lots of options on the table. I actually like the ARW and RGEM inside of 24 hours - so not having the ARW is of note.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The CMC indeed held serve. The west side of the snow extent shifts east just a bit. If someone wants to post the Kuchera map, have at it. My account memory is running low. Bout time to clean out some old files - which I hate to do, because they have a ton of wx history.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Skepticism and conservative calls are wise in this hobby. And we don't mind discussion or disagreement. None of that is taken then wrong way. There are a lot of new folks on the forum, so it is healthy to talk about how things are used - biases and what not.
  24. Carvers Gap
    This is an example of how I use trends. 6z is on the right. 12z is on the left. I look at the snow axis to see if it moves. While I don't "think" I am getting that much IMBY, the bump up or down and position of axis does give some hints as to how the storm developed on a particular run. For this run, totals went up(tells me cold might have gotten there sooner or a lee side low helped or both) and heavier snow accumulations trended westward - very close to the RGEM and 0z/6z Euro. And of course, we know all of this can go "poof." LOL. I have seen that movie too many times. The GFS was persistent yesterday of nearly a total whiff, so a change here is notable - but obviously never a certainty. If it were to trend westward with heavier snow totals one more time, that would be significant. The only certainty with snow storms is measuring after it is over.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Oh, I look at them. If a storm is going to fizzle, they will drop like a hot rock. I just don't take them overly seriously. Like any model, once you know the biases...they can be useful. I just don't use them, because I don't know all of the biases. MRX actually mentioned them on FB yesterday.
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