Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,656

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    If I could cash out now, I would take it. Add in the cold and winds....going to fire up the wood stove and enjoy Christmas. I am a little concerned about power if we were to get heavier snow along with wind and cold. But hey, let's roll.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Good find. Told tnweathernut he brought some good mojo this morning! LOL. If we can get any kind of ridge to pop out West, we are in business. I am not a huge fan of the 12z GEPS run, but it may just be noise at that range.
  3. Carvers Gap
    TRI Those emails are the best - little Festivus Day Miracle.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Right out of the gate, the 12z Euro seems just a hair faster with the energy over the Rockies.
  5. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is rolling.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Probably will depend on the Euro. Super tough call. This affects a ton of travel plans - they will understandably want to be as sure as possible in making the call.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS has a snow mean of 1.5-2" for NE TN. That is actually an increase....been very slowly creeping upward. Traditionally is a very conservative ensemble.
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS mean...12z on left. 6z on right.
  9. Carvers Gap
    It has been so long since we have had a -NAO (strength, duration), almost tough to remember. LOL!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Four runs ago, the UKMET had pretty much nothing over even the TRI.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z UKMET (non-Kuchera) is a bit beefier and a tick further west w/ 2-4" from MRX to TRI. East Knox Co has measurable snow depicted on this run - just an inch but better than 0z.
  12. Carvers Gap
    For those new to the forum, I like to use a side-by-side comparison(an overlay would be better...but don't have access to that) of storm totals. 12z CMC is on the left. 6z is on the right. I say "held serve" in a sense that it still has the storm, similar accumulation amounts(we know those will likely be lower or even much lower), and the storm is still vigorous as it exits. Totals are down a hair which is to be expected. What we don't want to see are large scale drop-offs as this could indicate a change in intensity, track, moisture transport(I do worry that storms along the GOM could cut off some precip into our forum area), etc. The green axis is roughly the old "purple 6" line. So, one can see that the precip axis to our north moved east slightly. The pivot in south middle TN has stayed nearly the same. Overall storm totals have been circled - a slight decrease is noted. This is upper end of the envelop as cold arrives more quickly. It definitely has a bias for cold, so that tells us changeover will likely occur further east in the forum area - so cut totals and shift east. Lastly, the ARW mesoscale model shows how none of us could get snow - again, lots of options on the table. I actually like the ARW and RGEM inside of 24 hours - so not having the ARW is of note.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The CMC indeed held serve. The west side of the snow extent shifts east just a bit. If someone wants to post the Kuchera map, have at it. My account memory is running low. Bout time to clean out some old files - which I hate to do, because they have a ton of wx history.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Skepticism and conservative calls are wise in this hobby. And we don't mind discussion or disagreement. None of that is taken then wrong way. There are a lot of new folks on the forum, so it is healthy to talk about how things are used - biases and what not.
  15. Carvers Gap
    This is an example of how I use trends. 6z is on the right. 12z is on the left. I look at the snow axis to see if it moves. While I don't "think" I am getting that much IMBY, the bump up or down and position of axis does give some hints as to how the storm developed on a particular run. For this run, totals went up(tells me cold might have gotten there sooner or a lee side low helped or both) and heavier snow accumulations trended westward - very close to the RGEM and 0z/6z Euro. And of course, we know all of this can go "poof." LOL. I have seen that movie too many times. The GFS was persistent yesterday of nearly a total whiff, so a change here is notable - but obviously never a certainty. If it were to trend westward with heavier snow totals one more time, that would be significant. The only certainty with snow storms is measuring after it is over.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Oh, I look at them. If a storm is going to fizzle, they will drop like a hot rock. I just don't take them overly seriously. Like any model, once you know the biases...they can be useful. I just don't use them, because I don't know all of the biases. MRX actually mentioned them on FB yesterday.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Right, I don't think anyone is jumping one way or another. We all know the drill. LOL. During the late 90s, we were once under a heavy snow warning(you may remember this!) at TRI for like 10-15" of snow. Nothing. So, yeah I get disappointed when snow forecasts don't verify...but I have seen enough to remain skeptical until even sometimes right in the middle of a winter storm! LOL. I have learned to enjoy different model runs if not just for entertainment and also for learning. However, trends right now are good. Let's hope they continue to hold. This a tough system as evidenced by the wide range of solutions still out there with under 36 hours to go. Glad to see the GFS trending away from the nada solution.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Great trend. Kuchera maps from Morristown to TRI should be impressive.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The RGEM(especially within 30 hours) as a general rule does well w E TN snow storms, but it is not infallible(no model is in these microclimates). And who knows...it may miss this time as it is definitely a western outlier with strong snow totals, but it has been persistent. I actually prefer the RGEM(not the CMC global) to the NAM. I really don't use SREF plumes - woefully inconsistent. For me the SREF and RGEM are world's apart in reliability. The toughest part of this storm is whether the cold reaches the back side of the precip. So, I don't really fault modeling one way or the other. In E TN, we all know the drill. Sometimes it hangs up on the Plateau and sometimes it is faster. "Low confidence" is a term I have been using lately. There are a wide range of options on the table right now ranging from a whiff to heavy snow. I do like looking at trends right now more than actual totals. Seeing models "bump up" or hold is obviously preferred.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, I know. You are long over due!
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z RGEM and 12z NAM sort of get to the same point via two paths. The RGEM is quicker with the changeover and the NAM produces a lee side low which very temporarily backs flow...but that extra thump of precip and backing was enough to up totals. For higher confidence, really would like to see modeling continue to be aggressive like the RGEM in bring in cold air. The NAM setup is finesse stuff. Now, if we got both an earlier changeover and a lee side low...you get the GFS from a few days ago.
  22. Carvers Gap
    So looks like the 12z RGEM held(beefed up a bit) and the NAM made a step towards it. Will be interesting to see the global suite in a few.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Kuchera snow totals. One thing to notice is that bigger snow totals extend a bit more on the western edge(compared to 6z). I think this is because the system is not as sharp. A couple of days ago, the system was so sharp(go back and look at the post about the buckle), that it produced a narrower swath due to the snow axis be nearly vertical. Now, the axis is "leaning" more SW to NE(over the forum area) and includes more surface area. That has been a trend on modeling since yesterday.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z RGEM is a nice run.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Though 36, the RGEM has snow in pretty much the same spots as 6z. Much quicker with the cold air and further extension west of the snow due to that.
×
×
  • Create New...