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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if the eventual solution is the low gets cut off in the Southwest and then meanders through the SE. Ninja to Holston. FTR, I had not read Chill's comments. But if that is the eventual solution, ALL BETS are off down stream. At that point, it becomes a bowling ball.
  2. Carvers Gap
    At 96, this is not a weak vortex over Utah. This is different than the last two runs.
  3. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is rolling.
  4. Carvers Gap
    So the 12z CMC has it this go around.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Both the 0z CMC and 6z GFS have the storm in almost the same spot they have had it for days, just weaker. The phase is different with almost each run. Modeling has trended away from a stronger phase of late, but let's see where this goes during the next couple of days. We are kind of at the point where modeling loses storms only to regain that look 4-5 days out. But with a slp reflection in the near the exact place as found yesterday, the potential still exists for a significant storm along the EC. The GDPS ensemble is probably most aggressive as it very close mimics some of the stronger operational runs from the past two days. The biggest trend is a later phase. We need an earlier phase. For NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA...the northern stream system is on most modeling. This could potentially result in 1-3" of snow over the area, even the valleys. With that strong of an impulse in the northern stream....that alone bears some watching. I also wouldn't rule out 1-2 threats immediately after the weekend system. As John notes, a pattern shake-up is plausible/ highly likely as the trough retrogrades into the West. At that point, we will likely see some nice February days with intermittent cold as it is very likely the cold will push at times with that type of pattern. Still, we have gotten much more winter than I would have envisioned for this winter. Plus, the Vols got a hard fought and much needed win last night on the hard court.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Uros.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Here is what is odd...If this was a rogue run, that is now three rogue runs out of the last nine. Seems like an off-run would not be repeated without some support at some level. It is worth noting as well that this type of solution isn’t just showing up on the GFS. We are seeing this setup across modeling along with hit or miss big runs. I tend to think models might be honing-in on a big storm. The 12z Euro had a nice storm right after the one the GFS has had. The ingredients are there for a big storm. Whether it happens, no idea. Obviously, nothing is a certainty at this range.
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I ended up doing what I said I wasn't going to do anyway. The model might be feeding back along the coast, but if that storms slows/stalls it is going to gain strength. That is the track sequence of a big storm - slp originates in the GOM and the northern stream punches the turbo boost.
  9. Carvers Gap
    60+mph winds long the coast at 10m. The tide in Chesapeake Bay would be ripping. Just one run, but incredibly impressive to see that look now 3x out of 9 runs. Obviously not set in stone, but the wildest run yet. Model mayhem for sure.
  10. Carvers Gap
    IF it verifies that strong, we may only need that slp track to move just a smidge. That is hurricane level stuff on that run. I need to go look at the winds.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I would take that run verbatim in terms of low placement and run with it! LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That was a MONSTER run to our east and not bad for E TN. It snowed from Destin to Maine with that run. It was more impressive than yesterday IMHO.
  13. Carvers Gap
    968mb slp over Hatteras at 177 and stalled out. Wow. edit: 966 just after that at 180.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is very similar to the wild 12z run from yesterday. Big storm.
  15. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is a nice run out to 156.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is rolling. At hour 90, more spacing between the front-running vortex and the main system. That front running vortex normally sheers out. Extra spacing may allow that main system to climb in latitude. Not going to fill up the thread with an off-run PBP, but interesting.
  17. Carvers Gap
    All I know is I couldn't feel my fingers after running this morning. It is 37 out there right now and it feels like a heat wave!
  18. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, both the 12z GFS, CMC, and Euro have a trailing system which could be a second storm or the main storm. This may be modeling finding a "caboose" system. Now, that is fun and games for hobby folks - not. If that is the case, modeling will have trouble sorting through which to accentuate. In reality, could be one big storm or the spacing could wash-out both storms due to spacing. The 12z Euro verbatim is two events within about 48-60 hours(or less). Storm signal is still there for next weekend.
  19. Carvers Gap
    This may well become a northern stream dominant winter storm. The Euro and GFS/CMC are about ~750 apart in their phasing solutions right now.
  20. Carvers Gap
    To me the Euro is on an island at 12z. It is completely missing the southern stream energy which is on both the GFS and CMC. It looked like the various pieces of energy were nailed down yesterday. Nope. To sum up the 12z suite and a nod to Jax for the quote....Like a person blindfolded and throwing darts!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. One of the cool things about the SE forum several years ago...some of their younger posters went on to become meteorologists I think. I took one meteorology class at UT many years ago and really enjoyed it. I don't think I realized how much I enjoyed the science of it until I was out of school.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, agree with Jax. They are just all over the place right now. I think there is a plausible/even likely chance, that we see an EC storm sometime next weekend. The CMC jumps on a piece of energy that wasn't there or was very week on the 0z run, and that does not allow for enough space between it and the actually system we are watching. The GFS pops a slp and then has another right after that. To me, we are looking at lots of energy in the northern stream and southern stream right now. Chances of a phase are high due to that and also the confluence along the EC being likely. Bout all we can say right now. Models are generally showing some type of storm on each run, but are having trouble dialing in. I suspect this circles back to a coastal storm. The GEFS slp placement for 12z shows a cluster of lows near Hatteras, a couple of inland runners, and even a cutter west of the Apps. Without a big high over the top, this storm is free to come northward and free to trend westward IMHO....if it doesn't get strung out.
  23. Carvers Gap
    But the 12z GFS for those who live in E TN is a look which we take 10/10 times at this range. Nice low, albeit a bit strung out, slides underneath and then gains latitude and strength along the EC. Details are not the key for me right now. Just wanting to see if a storm is going to be there. If it is, good deal.
  24. Carvers Gap
    By 165, the phase will be a bit too late for us. As is, a nice front with snow along it for most in the forum area. Honestly, this is not a bad look for those in Chattanooga.
  25. Carvers Gap
    By 156, looks a little strung out. This is another variation of this system. That said, light snow is present over the forum area with this look.
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