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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Next two posts related to day 10+... Not great trends for sure overnight with two global ensembles. Guessing(haven’t looked) that the MJO is unfavorable. 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS have a less than ideal NAO setup which can happen. Not sure that holds but is something you might see sometimes during summer where the NAO connect to an eastern ridge. The 0z EPS is actually a very good setup. The good thing about the EPS is that this is the time of year where it is much more dependable in the LR. With the strat getting hammered...models are going to be all over the place. I do think I we may see a time of ridging just after the New Year maybe around the end of week 1 and into week 2 - but that is not a given. Nina winters tend to have very warm spells at times. But I wouldn’t sweat it at this range...models have been predicting warmups for about a month and hasn’t occurred yet. That NAO is likely going to win a lot of battles if it holds...Will check the MJO later. It has been trending poorly for a few days and will battle a favorable Atlantic.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville, TN, has scored twice during December. You all are racking up down there!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Running just north of 4" of snow. With so much blowing earlier, tough to find a spot to measure that wasn't in the lee of a big tree. Things have settled down now. Just waiting for snow showers to fire, and put a top on the new snow. Great day! Great to hear all of the observations from everyone.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Man, we put 3 min in today while it was...raining. LOL.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, snow showers should persist off and on until about lunch tomorrow. TRI may have one last batch in the morning... Pretty much perfect weather for Christmas. Rare day to see heavy rain turn to heavy snow.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we were always last to the party here. Looks like thing let up here between 9:30-10:00.
  7. Carvers Gap
    About 2.75" at the house...maybe more.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It is flat ripping flakes here in Kingsport right now.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Here you go. Bounced up by about an inch in TRI valley locations. Not sure it gets that good, but never hurts to see a model go "up" at the last minute. Future runs will likely be less as it is snowing now.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I see what you mean 5-6" totals. Think it is overdone though.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Moderate snow now. Flipped super quick. We definitely missed some bigger returns as the precip pushed ahead of the front. I think we get an inch or two if this holds. I'll take it for Christmas!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. It just blasted through.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Nothing like tracking snow for Christmas...been great to see everyone posting. I think we will get similar amounts to east Knoxville here. We had to suffer through some great returns with the liquid stuff. But just going to enjoy it. 30-40mph front passage, heavy rain, and snow. Been a great weather day.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Ice and wind driven snow...20-30mph winds. Front crashed in like a freight train. Temps dropped to snow worthy levels in about a 20-25 minute time frame.
  15. Carvers Gap
    TRI crew...looks like the 21z HRRR has bumped our totals. 18z RGEM was excellent as well. Ice and snow being wind driven currently between 20-30mph.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z RGEM is up for the Central Valley.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Awesome.
  18. Carvers Gap
    In all seriousness, the interesting thing is that the 12z Euro went up. Will be interesting to see how this all verifies. When the Euro is upping totals right up until the event...not a bad thing most times.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I am digging your radar...we are probably two hours from change over here. Think you all do well!
  20. Carvers Gap
    12kNAM has filled in/upped totals in lower elevations of NE TN. 3k NAM is slightly down. SW VA nice increase on the 12k.
  21. Carvers Gap
    For posterity.... National Weather Service Morristown TN 258 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Friday)... Obs and webcams around the Cumberland Plateau and eastern KY are showing that the change to snow is beginning. Radar shows precip is blossoming, likely in response to increasing midlevel frontogenetic forcing. Over the next few hours, cold advection will continue to strengthen across the area and the changeover line will push east, with all precip in our area expected to be snow by 00Z. Snow banding will be possible as negative EPV values will coincide with the strong frontogenesis zone over NE TN and SW VA from 23-02Z. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in that area, and snowfall rates near or above 1 inch per hour will be possible. The dynamic forcing will exit our area by midnight, but we will continue to have very steep lapse rates under the mid/upper level closed low that will keep scattered to numerous snow showers going through the night. As this low slows progresses over the area, the chance of snow showers and flurries will persist into Christmas Day for locations north of I- 40, although additional accumulations will be very light and mainly confined to the mountains. The trend of the most recent model runs has been to reduce snow amounts slightly. This forecast package will follow that trend, with just a slight reduction in snow totals for the TN Valley from the previous forecast. Expecting 1-3 inch amounts in the Advisory area, with 3-5 inches in the lower elevations of the warning area, and 5- 10 inches in the higher elevations. The Warning and Advisory areas will not be changed. Travel conditions tonight continue to look very poor as heavy snowfall rates this evening will reduce visibility, and the very cold temperatures coming in tonight will create an icy layer underneath snow-covered roads. Wind chill values tonight will be dangerously low, in the range of - 5 to -15 F, and the Wind Chill Advisory will be continued.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Radar showing that the rn/sn line is approaching the I40-75 split in west Knoxville.
  23. Carvers Gap
    LOL. 2021 saying, "Hold my beer."
  24. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Knoxville is only about 2/3 of the way done with that storm. You all might have cracked 3'.
  25. Carvers Gap
    No kidding. 12 hours straight of heavy snow for TYS. LOL...and not even close to being over. One of those times one would like to see past 240.
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