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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Think it is slightly too early to be using SREF plums and the NAM right now. Might me right, but looks suspicious....
  2. Carvers Gap
    Have seen little model support for that solution today. Maybe there is some new data which supports that...but the NAM just looks over the top amped.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 500 vort map stuff, looks like the front on the GFS/NAM combo is a lot stronger than most of the other models. It is pulling the storm well west...just not sure how believable that is, but also illustrates just how difficult this is to get right. "Low confidence" has been my phrase all week. Yep...pretty much.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 0z 12k NAM at 39 is well west of the 18z run. Just looks overly amped - like way over the top stuff. It might be right...but it might not.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Was a hair east of 12z(barely) in both snow axis and slp. Slightly more snow in NE TN is reflected by the shift. Overall, very similar.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Man, the NAM is just amped on that run. Nice run for NE TN in terms of Kuchera totals, but wouldn't trust that model as far as I could throw it at this range! LOL. As tnweathernut said...thunder, lightning, and snow all in the same day. 2020 for ya right there.
  7. Carvers Gap
    EPS mean...some improvement from 6z. I don't think ensembles have caught up to this.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I don't think so. I think this is more like the base of that trough forms two waves. One runs up through western NC and then another forms right along the coast. These powerhouse cold fronts have all kinds of energy. Short story...I don't see energy transfer to the coast. Now, there may be some energy transfer from one side of the apps to another at some point, especially further north.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Looks too weak and the system is moving quite quickly. But...it might be enough to back the flow.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Which it "should" trend towards(the NAM).
  11. Carvers Gap
    Just browsing the Euro...weak slp pressure forms in east-central Alabama. It moves NNE to extreme NE TN. Meanwhile a very weak area of slp forms near Charleston, SC, and moves along the coast. That feature is not on the GFS which I can find.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yes, and the one thing about the Euro is that is pretty consistent right now.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think the potential is there for a big thump for somebody. Timing a strong cold front which is chasing into a line of precip from the West is tough. Ideally, we would want the slp to slow as it forms.
  14. Carvers Gap
    For sure!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z operational scorecard: UKMET: NE TN scraper but otherwise a whiff. GFS: Plateau and elevation dependent in TN. Eastern half of KY scores but less than previous runs. Euro: Consistent and beefs up numbers. CMC: Ohio...wow. High end of probability and a bit of an outlier. Trends: Westward jog on GFS and NAM. Others are fairly similar including RGEM.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Remember, new is on the left. 12z GFS operational compared to 6z. Looking back, the GFS "should" have been stronger. Low placement was decent, but precip was lacking once the changeover occurred. That is a legit option.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 12z Canadian Kuchera compared to 0z
  18. Carvers Gap
    Side-by-side of 12z and 0z Kuchera amounts. New run is on the left. 6z was a slight improvement from 0z. 12z was a slight improvement from 6z.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Kuchera from the 12z Euro has nearly identical placement of snow axis in our sub-forum but beefier.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro barely budges...impressive to see back-to-back runs from 6z and 12z hold that steady after the other models moved.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Through 39, looks very similar to 6z...slower than the GFS.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at 500 vort maps...the 12z Euro looks very similar to its off-run at 6z through 27
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is rolling.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Shew. There are literally all options on the table from a whiff to a major winter storm.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z UKMET is well east of the 12z GFS and most models. 12z CMC/GDPS is like right in the middle of the two tracks. There is a westward trend to the 12z suite for sure, but the UKMET slp is quite a bit east. This is not settled I don't think. So the eastern envelope is still a miss to the east for everyone but extreme NE TN. The western envelop is a slp slightly west of the Apps. The eastern envelop is a slop tracking just east of Asheville. UKMET looks too weak FWIW.
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