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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    D9+...12z EPS has basically a double block. EPO and Atlantic.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Quite the block showing up between d8-10 on modeling over Greenland.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I think these WxBell snow algorithms are way off. Shows snow on the surface map, but no accumulations....
  4. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll falling down on the job with regard to the Euro. Is that a cold front inducing snow(and not even going to put the jinx on what day that is!)?
  5. Carvers Gap
    As a caveat, this is not a forecast, but just providing an example of what a cold air delivery system looks like. This is the very end of the CMC(GFS is very similar)...PNA/EPO ridge(kind of a hybrid), riding into Alaska, AN heights over Greenland. This opens the door for very cold air. Again, this is an example and just one option of many which are on the table.
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS and CMC are really cold later in their runs.
  7. Carvers Gap
    MBY is at about 730 days - I think since the last time I have had more than 2" fall at once (off the top of my head). Not even sure I have seen a decent storm pattern in a couple of years...I may go dig back through the threads. December 2018 is my last decent storm I believe. I might have gotten 1/2" with that deal a couple of weeks ago, and that is not a winter storm in my book. I don't agree with that 13 at lower elevations where people live - nothing against you, Jax, just whoever made that map. Definite lack of Miller A tracks evident there.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I don't have a ton to add to yesterday, so I am going to bump my comments from yesterday. Bout where I am at the moment....
  9. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I enjoyed the Euro Control yesterday so much, I put my comments in the observations thread...BNA has it covered above, so here is my post from yesterday from the obs thread: Then entire control run(Weeklies) was lit...cold and pretty much built a glacier over E TN. Incredibly strong NAO signature. I think the control was pushing 20" over NE TN. The mean is less enthused...but I am riding the control - LOL. Give me the Euro Weeklies control for the 500 pattern....like the entire run.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Underrated post right there.
  11. Carvers Gap
    There are continued hints right now of a strong amplification of an eastern trough between Christmas and Elvis's birthday - that has been discussed by many including Jeff.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The only thing that makes me wary, is at one point we had winter storm after winter storm lined-up on modeling through the 18th - poof. The good thing is that the 18th appeared at one time to be the demarcation point when winter would flip warm. Looks like that window will potentially quite brief. All of that said, I have low confidence going forward with really any ideas. As noted in an earlier post, the MJO might eventually work in our favor. However, if it takes the tour...it is going to come back to 4-6 eventually. That said, some empirical wave proportions charts and OLR stuff looks quite good in the LR. I can see where some are starting to see cold on the horizon. I just don't have confidence about duration - would lean cold through mid-Jan with a thaw...and then maybe one last ride in Feb. I think we could all live with that. Of note the Weeklies look good for 3-4 weeks before flipping decidedly warm in the East....take with a grain of salt as they have been pushing pack the warm-up.
  13. Carvers Gap
    There have also been signs of the NAO and EPO being negative at the same time later this month. I think one thing we may have to contend with is the MJO going high amplitude into warm phases in mid-late Jan - but that is way, way out there. I like Jeff's potential window later this month into early January. Great comments by John as well.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Definitely been seeing PNA and/or EPO combos after Christmas in LR modeling. They may be just a one or two week event, but that would fit what you have read. I don't know a ton about mountain torque(makes me wonder what our own mountains do downstream after high wind events?), but had read a little as well over the weekend about that.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, modeling seems to hint at a trough amplification around or after Christmas.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Potential recipe for trouble where cold air banks up against the western side of the Valley against the Plateau. Both the 12z RGEM and 3K NAM show this to some extent, which to me is amazing that modeling can do that. When a low sits to our SE and we have marginal air masses that dip below freezing overnight, sometimes precip can lock the cold against the valley floor. Then the winds out of the east push that cold into pools against the mountains. Doesn't happen often, but it does happen. Very difficult to forecast. MRX does have a mention for extreme NE TN and SW VA. My point and click this AM, had me with a mix for much of the morning on Weds. Just have to wait and see. Tricky forecast. I don't expect any significant ice accumulation, but ANY ice accumulation on roadways is a royal pain in the butt.
  17. Carvers Gap
    It has been a good seven years. Happy Birthday, TN Valley Sub-Forum!!!!! In honor of this, I am bumping a seven year old thread!!!! LOL. May there be many more. Truly one of the best places on the internet.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 18z RGEM(beginning at hour 60) implies that there may be some slick spots during storm #2 in valley locations. Not sure I buy it, but is definitely on the model. Cold is quickly scoured out, but it does imply that there may be initial ice or mix north of 40 and along the I-81 corridor. I am absolutely not calling for that, but just wanted to give it a mention. Don't see a lot of evidence on other modeling, but the RGEM has been decent in recent years.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I do think WxBell is a bit generous with its snow algorithms on the 3hr and 6hr maps. Here you go for middle and west areas of the subform...Also, nice look for areas of SE KY and SW VA.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Euro 12z WxBell snow algorithm definitely showing snow showers for much of west and middle TN for storm one. Storm two - rainer...though extreme NE TN/SW VA is not written in stone for this one yet I don't think. If DC is getting a good track, sometimes TRI can get in on that. Anyway, storm one has anywhere between. .5 - 2" from a line from Memphis to the northern Plateau.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I normally like seeing storms underneath. Always think the NW shield delivers, even if marginally. I was wondering why that wasn't showing up. Looks like the slp is a bit deeper.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Saw the same thing and laughed. Bout the only positive from that which I see, is that it must be cold for it to snow that far south....plenty of time for that to trend NW, right?
  23. Carvers Gap
    CFSv2 heads to colder phases which is likely why it is so cold. Definitely was a bias of this model last year, BUT it is not an unreasonable option. It also illustrates where the pattern "could" go if the MJO were to head to 7, 8, and 1.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Bout the only thing I have tonight after looking at a very boring set of ensembles and operationals going out to two weeks...the MJO has surged into phase 4. The CA OLR map really looks like the MJO is heading for phases 7 and 8 after that. So, this may sound weird, but I sort of want the MJO to gain a bit of amplitude and rotate on around - looks like a real possibility. That would imply the PNA(which we are seeing return on some LR modeling) might be a factor in a couple of weeks - when it is great climo for cold.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Now, what the EPS is cooking up at lunch will play. PNA ridge after 300.
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