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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    One last little note...it appears that the PV which was forecast to tighten-up may actually get split. That is another change. I had 3-5 weeks for the warm-up, and I still like that time range(which began yesterday). Today, it looks like the three week time frame looks correct...but I wouldn't be surprised if models are rushing that a bit. Some epic winters have seen flips after warm Decembers and which were followed by warm starts to January. But who knows? That is what makes this interesting.
  2. Carvers Gap
    No way. We are stronger than that in the TN Valley forum. Warm Decembers during an El Nino winter is par for the course. Keep an eye on the that SOI. That drop means there is about to be a ton of movement within the atmospheric circulation pattern. That drop is exactly what we did not have last year. Sitting around -15 today. It the SOI was positive, I would be done...but it is not. Way, way out there the Weeklies do hint another cold shot later in January(no way I trust that...just saying). I could see a deal where we get one really good cold shot in early January that sort of lingers, warms up a bit, and then get another shot during late January and early February. I agree with tnweathernut...no way I would throw in the towel in mid-December. January could be AN for temps because the first week of January might tilt the scales a bit. The rest of the month might be seasonal or even slightly BN. I still take Nino climatology FTW from mid Jan through February. January is a tough month to forecast during a Nino winter, because it depends on when the transition to winter occurs. Again, this is not last year, but it is remarkable the comparison. Also, remember the tucked-in trough that we are seeing occurred during February last winter and not December. When that thing went into place last February, there was not time for a shake-up. The coupled Nino pattern this year will really fight any trough staying for months on end in the northwest, especially during the second half of winter. We had a winter with Nina and Nino characteristics last winter...not this winter as evidenced by the copious amounts of rain. All of that said, the warm Pacific does favor a really amped jet which does favor a northwest trough...I think we get our share of winter, but that will have to be heard from. Last year was a weird year. And these three years are not the same in relation to each other though there are some similarities. Many forget that most of December 2017 was very cold. It spilled into the following January. December itself finished AN because of a warm spell mid-month. From the last week of December to early January, we had a stretch of 7 days where we didn't event get above freezing. It was just bone dry due to a La Nina. Lastly, warm winters do not always equate to bad snowfall years. Cold helps for sure, but some of our biggest snows happen in relation to warm patterns(just prior, just after, or even right in the middle). Warm air means extra juice! And we always need to remember that our latitude wants it to rain most months....we live in the sub-tropics.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, just looked at the Euro Weeklies. The trough lifts out of the West and opens the door for very cold temps during the second week of January on the EC for about a week. That is short-lived as the western trough reloads. If the Weeklies are to be believed(big if), the eastern ridge is around most of winter with some cold shots breaking it down from time to time. The good thing is that the Weeklies show a window for very cold air by the second week of January with the first week being a transition.
  4. Carvers Gap
    What is on the ensembles d10-15 is nearly the exact same setup that the West had which produced record snows last February. Pretty uncanny. I do think the trough gets kicked out by the second week of January, but that is just an educated guess. Christmas week looks very warm in the East. I will add that I don’t really see the “somewhat less crappy” pattern moving up in time on modeling either. Pretty much stuck at d14-15. That trough that tucked into the northern Rockies last winter was there from February to June. Hopefully the eastern Indian Ocean convection dies down as some have predicted. Otherwise, Isotherm’s toasty forecast looks like money. I do think it is growing more likely that January might be above normal for temps.
  5. Carvers Gap
    For those who harken back to last winter, both the 0zEPS and 6zGEFS have a quickly eroding(or even absent?) NAO in the LR with an EPO ridge that is far enough west that a western trough tucks under the EPO ridge...allowing for it to snow in the mountains outside of Los Angeles. That may very well correct eastward at some point. Normally, I don't keep an eye on the weather in Los Angeles...but the band is headed to Pasadena. Within the next week or so, I might be asking you all to see what you think about the weather out that way regarding the Rose Bowl parade.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I waffle back and forth on the EPS MJO...it has been less than stellar this year. However, it was much better than the GEFS last year as winter settled in. I lean EPS right now. GEFS has whiffed on the cold December it has had depicted in the LR. Hopefully things change soon. Every day that pattern in the Pacific holds is a problem that just gets that much bigger.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The dropping SOI likely means the MJO hustles through any warm phases as well. The SOI drop, if it maintains, is a big deal.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Also, the GEFS/GFS is trying to push into cold phases. IMHO, the EPS/Euro is handling the MJO better though they did miss badly a few weeks ago. However, now that we are leaving shoulder season, the EPS will often run circles around the American model. And a good rule of thumb about the MJO...if we are talking about it, the pattern is not great. LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    And?
  10. Carvers Gap
    He has not been hyping cold this past week - been pretty warm. He basically said the MJO is a major problem right now. The IOD is a good indicator, but looking at the actual satellite is even better. If there is a bunch of convection over there...it likely gets into MJO regions 4-6.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I will add that my most hated winter patterns are super Ninos and moderate to strong La Ninas. The 90s had some very strong Nino winters that were warm and rainy end to end. Three winters ago I think was a solid La Nina - very warm. And I forgot one thing...the QBO is likely going to be in a position to help in the Atlantic very soon. I have a feeling that has already begun with a few pseudo bouts of blocking over Greenland - pseudo meaning short- lived. In my mind a true block locks and holds and not transient like has been modeled. The number one predictor of bad winters...latitude. We can actually have very different drivers each winter and still get to the same destination which is a dud winter. We live about as close to the equator as one can get and still get snow at this elevation. It wants to rain here for most of the year no matter what the condition. We get about a 4-6 week period most years where rain is not a given but still probable.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Again, I have been fairly detailed about the Pacific problems. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific are non Nino-ish and have a slight Nina characteristic. The Typhoon Tip discussion about having poor gradients between the Modoki Nino and the rest of the Pacific ocean is not good. Normally, the rest of the Pacific needs to be cool enough so that the warmer SST temps in ENSO regions don't wash out. The warmer temps in the NW Pacific are also an issue. The convection in the eastern Indian Ocean are problems. Also, we can't fail to mention the AMO in the Atlantic is positive. Those are a lot of warm signals. The only thing that I can find that points to cold is the Modoki look in the Pacific. But those cooler temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific have a direct correlation to a SER. What could change? If the eastern Indian Ocean settles down, the MJO will likely move into favorable phases - not even close right now. IMHO, if that one thing happens...we get a decent stretch of winter. That single area was likely responsible to last winter's dud. The SOI seems to indicate that the atmosphere is coupled with the Nino - it was largely not last year. I get that we are saying this is three straight winters. It is not, but that argument tempts me often as well. There are definitely a lot of similarities to last winter which was a weak Nina. Two years ago is a totally different ballgame. I think most folks this season have said, "December is gonna be warm. January will be a transition." The snowistas among us(me included) will always hope against a warm month and look for a way out. After all, many are here to hunt snowstorms. That is exactly how I got started. I am beginning to wonder if the "cold November analog"(equating to cold winters) package does not work right now with a warmer than normal Pacific. Seems like cold in November has become a signal for a very warm December. All of that said, I still think we get plenty of winter. The SOI was a major warning last winter as it was positive. The winter behaved as a La Nina. Right now, this December is straight out of the Nino playbook - warmish and rainy. The very things that drive the pattern to be warm in December will force it to turn cold during the second half of winter. I warned in my winter ideas last June(just look in the summer thread) that the West would likely be cold in December. But make no mistake, we are going to have to go through some warm weeks to get to the heart of winter. The SOI right now is our friend. If it was positive...I would be very pessimistic. Sometimes, if one watches certain indexes you can get a jump on modeling. It is one of the reasons I have been saying it is going to get warm. Just one look at the eastern Indian Ocean on satellite...one pretty much knew a warm pattern was inbound. That is forecast I think to begin to settle down.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The LR ensembles are are pretty much terrible if one likes snow. Now, the SOI tanking needs to be watched....that usually means something is afoot. I do think we are in a new pattern with a trough in the West and ridge in the East for an undetermined amount of time. The SOI was positive last year. I wonder if the models start feeling that SOI if it continues to tank...it will really not want a trough in the West as that is Nina territory and that is not what the SOI is showing. But if one just took the models from today(and didn't look at the SOI or anything else)...that pattern probably doesn't break until mid to late January if that. The SOI today is -14. If it dips further...just toss the LR maps.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At this point, one could make a great argument that the pattern has already changed...TRI is +1.7. TYS is 2.5. CHA is +2.8. Indeed, it can and does snow during warm patterns. Looks to me like all three E TN locations will very likely finish AN or much AN regarding temps...and all three have received measurable snow. I do think the pattern becomes quite hostile to snow after this weekend. The 12z GFS has already backed-off the weekend system event...we will see if the Euro continues with the suppressed look. I noticed that highs in the 70s could reach as far as Memphis with highs in the mid 60s in middle and west TN during Christmas week on the 12z GF. I do think the cold returns in January. I have mixed thoughts as to when it returns. I have said that beginning tomorrow, we likely will have a 3-5 week window of warm weather. I still lean around three weeks, but could easily see a path towards this warm weather lasting well into the third week of January(or even longer) as we are in a new pattern that is more warm than cold...but not absent of cold. I think the next two weeks will see building warmth over ares of the GC, especially Florida. We really need to see the EPS ensemble break ranks at some point from its previous runs as it seems locked-in now to a warm pattern and when it sniffs out a warm pattern....that dog usually hunts. And the pattern the EPS is depicting is not easily broken down. I have little to no confidence in the GFS as it is pushing the MJO into cold phases and the satellite date in the eastern Indian Ocean seems to indicate that the MJO would likely at some point move the MJO at least temporarily into warm phases - big edge to the EPS. Lastly, it is indeed remarkable how similar the temp anomalies are to last year. Cool November...warm-up in December...Nina like conditions in the eastern Pacific. That said...I think the QBO will likely give us a shot at blocking in the Atlantic. I have no idea when the Pacific comes back on line. When we lost it last winter...it did not come back. I am still banking on the Nino card and falling SOI to bring back cold after the New Year, but that is less certain than it was a few days ago. Warm Decembers are calling cards for Ninos...so no surprise. What does concern me is that the warm got started a bit late, and likely means it gets very close to the heart of winter. Time will tell. Hoping for a flip.
  15. Carvers Gap
    JB had a brief, but good post this AM. How the EPS and GEFS are handling the MJO are worlds apart. EPS is headed(crawling) towards 6 while the GEFS is headed for 8. I give very little weight to the GEFS as hit has settled back into whiffing as we hit winter. This is the time of year that I don't like being in the same boat as the GEFS. As for seasonal change, I am leaning towards the western trough becoming the new and stable pattern for the next 3-5 weeks as mentioned earlier. JB did mention that the SOI is now in negative double digit land. If one wanted to find a glimmer of hope, the SOI tanked in November right before the big cold snap. We really need models to begin changing the look over AK and the NW...the Pacific is about as bad as it can look. If we lose blocking over Greenland, it is going to get very warm. What I don't like is that a warm EC is now becoming more and more prevalent on modeling, but things can and will change. That doesn't mean wall-to-wall warmth, more like a 65/35 combo as mentioned earlier. Maybe our biggest hope is that ensembles have been fairly bad after d10, but this hostile Pacific look just seems like it may have staying power...and I could easily be wrong. edit: Make sure to know these comments reference the pattern after 150.
  16. Carvers Gap
    OTH, the Euro and GEM barely even have that storm. The EPS with yet another warm 0z overnight run. What I am seeing is modeling having trouble getting rid of the warm pattern now which is not surprising. That setup over AK and the eastern Pacific is a pain to break down and will take some time to do so. The biggest problem will be the scouring of cold air from NA. Definitely not a look one wants to see mid-winter. The EPS is not moving up in time the return to an eastern trough. Pretty much stuck at d15-16 and even that looks is pretty dicey. Most operational models and their ensembles look warm after next Saturday - 65% AN and 35% BN type look. . The warm looks are no longer being pushed back and the cold looks are quickly becoming less numerous after d7.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I do think the system at 150 on the GFS probably needs to be watched. The GFS is progressive which means that storm may get more wound-up. It is an outside shot, but has some characteristics of a major snow storm. I think places like NE TN and SW VA would have the best shot due to their prxomity to the Atlantic.
  18. Carvers Gap
    But I think we connect a couple of times (on the low road systems) this winter as it gets colder. I will take Nino climatology for the win...mid Jan to mid Feb.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Seems like we have had some cutters well West along with a combo of lows taking the low road(but little cold air to support snow). I think those storm tracks continue but with Pacific air as the source region.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are worlds apart....maybe light years. They eventually get to the same point...but those roads diverge mightily before reconverting in the LR. I think their handling of the MJO is crucial. While I like the GEFS in finding cold, when the EPS gets inside of d10 it outperforms the GEFS. One models is going to be left looking pretty bad after this bout...If one can scrounge up some commonalities: 1. EPO ridge returns late in each run. NAO weakens quickly just like last time. I do wonder if it eventually fires once Nino climatology is a little less hostile. 2. Ridge comes east with wildly different depictions of its duration(I lean longer than the GEFS...) 3. Lots of rain and Pacific air. Lots of sloppy whether which is a hallmark of El Ninos in this area. 4. Lots of whiplash with a wide range of outcomes possible even during the mid-range.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, agree. Just the look in the eastern Indian Ocean...plenty of convection. I think the IOD index had been falling as of yesterday. That said, the actual satellite photo is pretty steam in that area. That is part of the reason that I think we get consistent(winter type stuff) during the just prior to mid-January.
  22. Carvers Gap
    If is crazy how the overnight run of the EPS is warm and the 12z is cold. This oddity has been going on for weeks. Looked like the NAO might be lost but the EPO reforms. I think we have seen this movie before. The run wasn't cold, but if it continues to correct...even normal temps in late December are formidable as Jeff noted. EPS and GEFS look good at 12z. I wonder how many times I have typed that during December...only to type that the overnight ensembles took a step back. LOL.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Does not appear this is going to be one of those winters where we a bored...lots to figure out. Also, seems to be one of those winters where events can sneak up on us...especially cold fronts. Great discussion by everyone. And I do think we get a nice period of winter weather eventuall. Lots of cold running around and poor model verification after about d8, even with generalities.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Just now getting caught up on model runs since 12z yesterday...been painting most of the week. The GEFS and EPS are worlds apart regarding the ridge placement and duration in the East in the LR. Just when I think they have their act together...the 0z suite happens. A couple of folks have asked what the scientific argument for warm would be(not saying this will happen), but here they are: 1. Ninos have clusters of warm Decembers. 2. The MJO on the JAMSTEC yesterday showed rain in the MJO regions of 4, 5, and 6 in the LR. 3. The Pacific(if the modeling is correct) is about to be less than favorable for at least ten days - hostile is an appropriate word. For the NAO to really work its magic and produce a memorable pattern, those two need to be in sync. 4. The PV might(if the models are correct) indeed tighten up after this minor/moderate PV split. Those four aforementioned reasons are solid reasons. Reasons to think that the LR pattern will be good(wintry)... 1. November...was a great month in terms of weather patterns. What happens in November, the winter will remember. 2. Blocking is showing up on global ensembles. The GEFS and GEPS this morning do indeed depict a workable eastern pattern. The EPS shows how the pattern could go poorly, even with Atlantic blocking - the EPS has played catch-up since October when blocking begins to show-up. 3. The NAO is turning suddenly negative. That often happens. Many have noted on various sub-forums that the NAO doesn't give a lot of notice when it flips negative. It is likely models don't have this worked out yet if real. That said, modeling showed a great -NAO just a few weeks ago that looked golden...and lasted less than a week. 4. The QBO is dropping which should enhance blocking. 6. The pattern should turn colder due to climatology during January/February. Wild Cards... 1. IOD...dropping sharply but will it maintain that? 2. The SOI has been flirting with positive at times. A few very negative days back in November are keeping the 30 day average more negative than it probably is. The big cold snap during November coincided with a sharp drop in the SOI. 3. Storm track. Hate to say waisted...but we have indeed waisted a great storm track of SLPs from the GOM that have been rainers. Will that great storm track continue? Have to think if it does continue...one of those big cold highs will be money. The frequency of precip events will definitely help our odds of snow. 4. Does the GEFS stay on its hot streak of finding cold...or does its remarkable cold bias make it unusable during all but early and late winter? 5. What in the world has happened to LR/seasonal modeling during the past couple of years? Seems like they used to be much more accurate. I am sure there is a statistic that say they are accurate....but the Weeklies are a shadow of their former selves IMHO. Will they improve as the season settles down? Where do we go from here? TRI sits at +1.2F for the month. With a sixty degree high forecast for next week, have to think that holds strong. I think December finishes AN for temps. It is an outside possibility that TRI could get in the mix for the storm around the 22nd. Right now looks like a Miller B. I have noticed over the years, that when DC gets that set-up, often TRI is where the snow axis begins. Right now, just looks too warm. I still feel that beginning Monday, the pattern is 3-5 weeks weeks from getting into a true winter pattern that is both cold and snowy. Again, it can and does snow during a warm pattern. I probably lean towards the three week end of that window. I think the GEFS is likely correct this morning, but just too fast. So, late in the first week of January or second week of January would be a guess as to when we see the a true winter time pattern - not that this week was a bad one. And that is worth stating again, the weather pattern has been decent. Definitely looking forward to see how modeling works out things during the next couple of weeks.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Had a post on in the queue about how warm the models looked this morning. Got busy and forgot to post it! It would have looked something like this about now.
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