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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Goodbye power!
  2. Carvers Gap
    The overnight lows with snow on the ground and that air mass might get some of us below zero. Wind chills would be straight nasty. GFS depicts that scenario pretty well.
  3. Carvers Gap
    My only worry(for E TN folks) is a progressive model has us in the bullseye. The ICON is the other side of the envelope. GFS would be a 100K view thread.
  4. Carvers Gap
    KMA is a great weather model name. Dr No and then...KMA!!!...if you catch my drift. LOL.
  5. Carvers Gap
    LOL. For sure...Basically just wanting folks to understand that we are about to enter a time where confidence is very low.
  6. Carvers Gap
    To say that LR modeling is all over the place right now...might be an understatement. Huge swings over our region from run to run. Consistent(using that term loosely) features seem to be a -NAO...man, that might be about it. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Any good trends with overnight model runs?
  8. Carvers Gap
    Low confidence. At this point today, just not seeing anything but a "thread the needle" scenario for snow. CFSv2 shows some hope after week one, but not holding my breath. Trends during the past 24 hours have been towards a big ridge building in after Christmas - surprise! Total flip. Big amplification around Christmas, and almost immediately replaced by a ridge. Better than a torch and not really hostile to snow...but not really anything that looks as awesome as a couple of days ago. Pretty sure a good church of those runs was a mirage - may come back later, but 12z looking rough.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS hammers NC with two storms. The first is nearly perfectly placed and if real, would also likely hammers E TN. There is a second right after it. If one takes the progressive GFS at its word, that is right where we want both storms. Certainly laid down the gauntlet.
  10. Carvers Gap
    D9+...12z EPS has basically a double block. EPO and Atlantic.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Quite the block showing up between d8-10 on modeling over Greenland.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I think these WxBell snow algorithms are way off. Shows snow on the surface map, but no accumulations....
  13. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll falling down on the job with regard to the Euro. Is that a cold front inducing snow(and not even going to put the jinx on what day that is!)?
  14. Carvers Gap
    As a caveat, this is not a forecast, but just providing an example of what a cold air delivery system looks like. This is the very end of the CMC(GFS is very similar)...PNA/EPO ridge(kind of a hybrid), riding into Alaska, AN heights over Greenland. This opens the door for very cold air. Again, this is an example and just one option of many which are on the table.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS and CMC are really cold later in their runs.
  16. Carvers Gap
    MBY is at about 730 days - I think since the last time I have had more than 2" fall at once (off the top of my head). Not even sure I have seen a decent storm pattern in a couple of years...I may go dig back through the threads. December 2018 is my last decent storm I believe. I might have gotten 1/2" with that deal a couple of weeks ago, and that is not a winter storm in my book. I don't agree with that 13 at lower elevations where people live - nothing against you, Jax, just whoever made that map. Definite lack of Miller A tracks evident there.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I don't have a ton to add to yesterday, so I am going to bump my comments from yesterday. Bout where I am at the moment....
  18. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I enjoyed the Euro Control yesterday so much, I put my comments in the observations thread...BNA has it covered above, so here is my post from yesterday from the obs thread: Then entire control run(Weeklies) was lit...cold and pretty much built a glacier over E TN. Incredibly strong NAO signature. I think the control was pushing 20" over NE TN. The mean is less enthused...but I am riding the control - LOL. Give me the Euro Weeklies control for the 500 pattern....like the entire run.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Underrated post right there.
  20. Carvers Gap
    There are continued hints right now of a strong amplification of an eastern trough between Christmas and Elvis's birthday - that has been discussed by many including Jeff.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The only thing that makes me wary, is at one point we had winter storm after winter storm lined-up on modeling through the 18th - poof. The good thing is that the 18th appeared at one time to be the demarcation point when winter would flip warm. Looks like that window will potentially quite brief. All of that said, I have low confidence going forward with really any ideas. As noted in an earlier post, the MJO might eventually work in our favor. However, if it takes the tour...it is going to come back to 4-6 eventually. That said, some empirical wave proportions charts and OLR stuff looks quite good in the LR. I can see where some are starting to see cold on the horizon. I just don't have confidence about duration - would lean cold through mid-Jan with a thaw...and then maybe one last ride in Feb. I think we could all live with that. Of note the Weeklies look good for 3-4 weeks before flipping decidedly warm in the East....take with a grain of salt as they have been pushing pack the warm-up.
  22. Carvers Gap
    There have also been signs of the NAO and EPO being negative at the same time later this month. I think one thing we may have to contend with is the MJO going high amplitude into warm phases in mid-late Jan - but that is way, way out there. I like Jeff's potential window later this month into early January. Great comments by John as well.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Definitely been seeing PNA and/or EPO combos after Christmas in LR modeling. They may be just a one or two week event, but that would fit what you have read. I don't know a ton about mountain torque(makes me wonder what our own mountains do downstream after high wind events?), but had read a little as well over the weekend about that.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, modeling seems to hint at a trough amplification around or after Christmas.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Potential recipe for trouble where cold air banks up against the western side of the Valley against the Plateau. Both the 12z RGEM and 3K NAM show this to some extent, which to me is amazing that modeling can do that. When a low sits to our SE and we have marginal air masses that dip below freezing overnight, sometimes precip can lock the cold against the valley floor. Then the winds out of the east push that cold into pools against the mountains. Doesn't happen often, but it does happen. Very difficult to forecast. MRX does have a mention for extreme NE TN and SW VA. My point and click this AM, had me with a mix for much of the morning on Weds. Just have to wait and see. Tricky forecast. I don't expect any significant ice accumulation, but ANY ice accumulation on roadways is a royal pain in the butt.
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