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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Just meaning I wasn't overly impressed with current SSTs or forecasted ones. I think it is good enough to get us through winter...weaker the better in my book as long as we don't dip to a nada. And yes, moisture train looks good for this month at least and prob normalish after that.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS again looks cold from about 144 to the end of the run....variability prior to that. The EPS ridge is just massive. Have to think if that verifies, it is going to be much colder than modeled. And there was really not sign of it letting up. As always, have to be careful of a trough getting tucked under that ridge - how many times have I said that? LOL. Again, I think the Nino-ish forcing mechanism will kick it out. As for the Nino, starting to look a bit putrid. This may very well be a true weak El Nino, very weak.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Pretty interesting to see ridging events appear in the East only to be muted or erased as we draw closer. Looks like we may very well have a significant cold shot right in the middle of what was supposed to be another ridging event. Definitely a trend(ridge going West after being modeled East) to keep an eye on.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think right now, there is a storm signal(maybe multiple) after December 10th. Often big storms will precede a cold outbreak. A cutter wouldn't surprise me...but if that cuts, it will deliver bitterly cold air. Then that boundary likely sets the stage for an overrunning event. Best case scenario is a Miller A followed by cold and snow. Worst case is a cutter that drives the boundary to Cuba. I like what I am seeing so far...lots of options on the table. Some are good and some are bad. The Euro also tends to over-amp systems while the GFS is progressive. At this range, just tough to know...but that is a cold, cold set of EPS/GEFS ensembles. I suspect were are nowhere close to this working itself out. Pretty impressive.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The problem with the Euro is that it messes around in the Southwest and is wrong about 2/3 of the time. And that bias causes it to be slow sometimes. The Euro has often been too warm this fall. The GFS can sometimes be too quick with cold - right idea often but a few days too fast. However, if one blends those two looks and the timing, that is a pretty good set-up for cold and snow in the East beginning about d10-12. Probably also worth pointing out that often times modeling will underestimate how far south that cold gets. I do think the ENSO set-up is going to force that trough out of the West. I would not be surprised to see a big high settle into the front range and then spread out. I don't mind seeing the core of the cold at the northern border of the US. If that cold air mass is real, it likely verifies at about the latitude of roughly Chicago IMHO. Not sure @John1122 can take another snowstorm in New Orleans. LOL!
  6. Carvers Gap
    PSU in the MA thread mentioned that if you look at the 850 temps on the Euro, it is moving towards the broad trough idea. Bob Chill and FRD talk a little (they were just throwing it out there...not a forecast and more just fun speculation...forgive me if that is wrong!) about how an overrunning event could be derived from that broad trough look on the American model. I tend to agree. Long way to go, but a fun set of model runs, especially considering that modeling looked awful several days ago. Definitely interesting.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS does offer a word of caution. The EPO ridge gets so tall on it...that the GEPS tucks a trough under the big ridge. So, that is the danger we need to be wary of in terms of the LR. This actually happened last year. Modeling went crazy for a cold East...and the trough tucked West. I don't think the Nino will let that happen now that it is coupled. However, there may be a window there for that to happen due to the IOD firing. Long term, that tough likely gets kicked out of there. Besides, park a 1050+ high over MT, and let's see what happens!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Check out the thermal profile one the US on the GEFS after that. But yeah, trouble written all over that pattern. Pretty amazing shift in modeling during the past 48 hours. I think the 12z GFS operational has a 1057 parked over western Canada on its run. To me the GEFS is more impressive than the operational.
  9. Carvers Gap
    End of the Euro run has extremely cold air entering northern Canada, spreading out, and head south. EPS should be interesting.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I should note that the Euro is not at the range where the the other models hit some extreme stuff.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z GEFS supports the operational. Now, all eyes turn to the Euro/EPS. Euro through 204 is cold but less impressive. The 12z GEFS is pretty cold for an ensemble.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC is right there with it. Wow, Canada gets cold on the GFS and CMC in a hurry.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Pretty funny to be talking about International Falls yesterday...and then the 12z GFS straight drops the hammer on the North Star State. Source regions, anyone? My favorite storm track is New Orleans/Mobile to inside Hatteras. The track(take with a huge grain of salt) on that GFS run would be a close second and an old school one at that. Again, crazy we were just talking about that yesterday.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Got a little band of snow over eastern Hawkins and western Sullivan. Super narrow, but snow nonetheless.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And today’s winner is the 18z GEFS temp anomaly map!
  16. Carvers Gap
    I am just going to ride with whichever operational or ensemble is coldest and snowiest! LOL And dern straight....that deserves a hot dog emoji.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I actually like the forecast(just referencing what Jeff has mentioned...I haven't read it yet but will) of a Plains storm track with cutters early. That is fairly normal. Then, as winter presses and El Nino sort of forces the trough eastward during January and February, I actually favor sort of what we are seeing now...cutters and coastals as a secondary track. And we know on the EC that just one or two systems along or inside the coast can make for some memorable winter weather. But yeah, I agree that we might not see a settled pattern this winter...but if we are, it would likely be a trough in the East for the second half of winter. I am guessing the GEFS is likely right but just too quick. I think we are going to have to have the Pacific in our favor as it just seems an Atlantic block during winter is difficult these days.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Also, the QBO tends to run in roughly 14 month cycles when positive. It just finished month thirteen. So, it is about on schedule if not slightly behind. Here is the index history. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
  19. Carvers Gap
    Good write-up, Jeff. Yeah, looked like the Euro Weeklies which ran from the 0z run just basically went wash/rinse/repeat for the rest of the run. It might be right as a new pattern is due and it might not be. I couldn't see much difference between week 1 and week 6. Looked like a northwest/western trough with an eastern ridge. I am not even sure the Weeklies matched with the 12z run of the EPS. Like you said, it "appears" that the low in the southwest is an error and caused the run to miss from that point on. But I have seen it nail patterns where I was certain it was in error. I tend to favor the GEFS just a bit because it seems to see eastern cold better...and it is not getting bogged down in the southwest. But I tread carefully as the GEFS is less reliable in a stable winter pattern. Not sure I would share a foxhole with either model right now. LOL. Some fairly major differences in how each are handling the MJO and that occurs fairly early in the Euro and American models. Just general comments not directed as a reply to Jeff....Also, looks like the QBO dropped from 7.27 to 5.07. That is its biggest drop since it began falling in June. Pretty steady progression which is sort of unusual as it usually has one big drop as it descends. So the trajectory is down and wind reversal is in progress at 30mb...still not there yet. Makes me think the QBO will be negative during mid to late January or sometime in early February if this consistent trajectory persists. If it drops quickly, we could be there by early January. Would be interesting to see an actually splitting of the PV about the time it goes below zero. Looks like with the QBO cross-section graph that there is usually a stall and then a drop and a stall and then a drop. The double dip into positive during the last cycle had the first drop, and then it went back up. Just look at the blue in the upper right hand corner...that is the current reversal working its way down. You can see just to the left where it failed to reverse. You can see the ones further to the left how they progressed. This current cycle looks like it has survived the stall and is progressing downward again. https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/QBO.html
  20. Carvers Gap
    I think for one thing, we have been testing the limits as to how far into the future that we can use these models...I know I have. D10-15 patterns shift a lot on ensembles anyway. That said, there have been some wild shifts lately that often resemble the operational shifts. I just like to see how far I can push the envelope. D8-15 has been a mess for about 12-13 months. Seems like when the Euro and GEFS locked into a pattern years ago, they didn't bounce around as much(but they were still prone to shifts). I also suspect that we are seeing a somewhat substantial(but slow) hemispheric pattern change. December '18 to October '19 seemed like one big, repetitive pattern. Now, I think the pattern is changing, partly due to seasonal changes and partly because the atmosphere is now coupled with the weak El Nino. I am not sure where the pattern goes. It is a bit like playing the slots...just never know what is going to come up. As Tellico said...probably best just to ride with climatology right now. It actually has been pretty good.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Nice run of the 12z GEFS. Dec 8-18 it has a nice EPO/PNA ridge. Timing would be tough for a storm, but gulf systems don't seem to a problem right now. I hesitate to say it...but nice trends over the past 3-4 runs on the GEFS. Let's see what the EPS shows.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Leconte Lodge reported 5" of snow this morning. You can see their photos on FB.
  23. Carvers Gap
    No reason to waste a favorable pattern during the first half of December. LOL. I will say that when I was little, a cold/snowy Missouri and western KY were always good signs in my book. Always seemed like if they could score early, we would get our share at some point. Paducah, KY, was always a place I would keep an eye on. If it snowed there, always seemed like we had a shot here(lived in Knoxville as a kid in the 70s). I also like to watch the temp in International Falls. It seemed like if the core of the cold went there, it would find a way here. Now, I am looking at thunderstorm activity in the Indian Ocean and 500mb levels over Greenland and the eastern Pacific. I have said this a few times...during the 70s it seemed like many of Knoxville's best snows would begin in Memphis(from a kid's perspective). We know those as sliders now of course. Would be interesting if we had one of those "old school" tracks...cutters and sliders.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Well, you might as well just go buy a new snow shovel while you are at it!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Finally had some snow showers here in Kingsport. Sure is cold. So, basically the higher elevations scored an event for the first two days of met winter. Not bad. Looks like Roan is getting hammered pretty good right now. I bet they get several inches.
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