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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS and GEPS continue a very quick pivot of the pattern after d10. The 12z GEFS(very late in the run so beware) has a ridge in the West and a block over Greenland. GEPS has something similar with more ridging along the EC. These are fairly significant changes compared to the what has been advertised for many days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Temp is 34 in Kingsport with a slight breeze. WC is probably below 32. Pretty raw day.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Biggest thing I notice is that it is a real pain to get it to snow in Tennessee prior to the 15th of December. We have seen some early season, low-elevation snows during recent years...but really as a kid I never really expected it to snow until around or just after Christmas. Getting some great tracks with marginal or no cold. If we can keep that track(or have it re-develop) later this month or in early January, we would likely be in business. I would not rule out accumulating snow north of I-40 during the next couple of weeks across the forum area. Someone would have to thread the needle, but anytime a storm goes "under" us in terms of latitude during the winter months, it probably should be watched.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z suite rolling. Taking a quick break from the virtual school grind.... Looks like the GFS, ICON, and CMC have low-road storm threats. The ICON(nice middle and west snow) and CMC both have something between 120-140h. GFS looks slightly too progressive. VERY active pattern - mostly rainers but some mix/snow stuff.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Major changes on the GEFS extended for early January. Fairly massive shift. This is the daily run of the extended GEFS which rolls about this time each evening for the model suite I subscribe to. @Holston_River_Rambler, do you have access to it? Check that...shift begins Dec 28
  6. Carvers Gap
    Spitting some salt and pepper size flakes here. Had some flurries and very light snow showers for about an hour or so. You can see the banding of those on the RadarScope image below.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, modeling seems to be feeling the presence of the NAO for sure. I am not ready to buy that feature quite yet as there has been a wicked bias towards that. However, we are long over due for a -NAO. Seems lately that the disruption of the SPV and -NAO go hand in hand...but seems like the NAO flashes and then disappears. So, we will see what happens. I was honestly surprised the Weeklies didn't look worse at 500. If they had run from 12z, likely would have looked even better. Again, lots of cutters and maybe some storms passing underneath if the block verifies. Seems like when the NAO shows up, it is often a fixture for most of winter...but ready to see it verify for a week or two before really believing staying power. IF(stress) that is a real feature, that should begin to create a feed(with the unfavorable PAC) into the norther Rockies which bleeds eastward at times. Not an exceptional winter pattern, but probably has the potential to be better than the last few winters. AN temps in January(provided they are slightly AN), can do the trick if timing is right. The NAO would provide for more confluence along the EC. Anyway, way out there...but worth a mention. Hey, it is early Dec...most years(prior to the last five winters) I really wouldn't expect winter wx until later this month or Jan.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The Weeklies seem to imply that the cold is going to push after initially going West. And that is extremely cold air in Alaska. When operationals start to bounce around usually some very cold air in NA...noticed both of those characteristics at 12z today.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I personally didn't think the Euro Weeklies looked terrible for 850temps(I never uses its surface temps...terrible warm bias) and 500 maps. The 12z EPS was quite a bit different. In the past few runs it has eliminated the ridging under neath and was quite close to opening the door for the air mass in AK to drop into the nation's mid-section. Will try to post more later.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro continues with a progressive pattern of cutters and low road lows(which lack cold). What is actually cool about that run is that it has the AK to SE trough(albeit temporary) which ensembles have struggled with for about a week. Some bitterly cold air in north/central Canada along the eastern shores of Hudson Bay.
  11. Carvers Gap
    That's pretty hilarious. I see that we have a few who speak our local wx microclimate dialect.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Whew. Good luck making heads or tails out of any of those runs - GEM or GFS at 12z. Lots of cutters. Maybe one or two taking the low road with cold air lacking. When models goes haywire like that, makes me wonder if we are about to see some very cold air invaded the lower 48, maybe just after the day14-16 window(basically just outside of modeling's range). Lots of chaos in those two model runs.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I have to be honest...I am not seeing a locked-in pattern on the operational runs at all. Just looks like a pattern with a lot of variability.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Inside joke for the rest of the TRI Kingsport crew. If you know what we are talking about, discuss let's not...we all need our relatives still working. LOL...downsloping is just one of the problems we have to overcome.
  15. Carvers Gap
    LOL. You know we are going to be last in Kingsport and you know why!
  16. Carvers Gap
    About 300, the 18z GEFS has a ridge now out West. Likely temporary, but illustrates the uncertainty after the 18th.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Also in the "evening" news from the MA forum(above info was from there as well), the 18z GFS does put the hammer on the SPV. Bout all I got for now.
  18. Carvers Gap
    DT is mentioning a fairly significant weakening of the La Nina (maybe in the Euro sesaononals) over the next six months. Not sure that helps us at this latitude as it might not help until March. That said, I will take a weakening Nina vs a strengthening one. It is very important to note that most ensembles, monthly model runs, and seasonal models missed the December cold snap. I will post the Euro seasonal for December if I get a chance later. That said, if the Euro is going to miss...Nov/Dec are usually excellent candidates.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That is kind of my thinking. Maybe get some truly cold air into the Rockies and let it bleed eastward at times.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Hey, man. Glad to see back posting more.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Cold shot comes through the 13th. Right now looks dry before the next system may cut right at the end of that timeframe you mentioned. IMHO, still a lot of uncertainty during that time frame. The 12z Euro operational has a really strong trough amplification then. Would not surprise me to see something along the EC. Euro pops a low off NC around the 15th.
  22. Carvers Gap
    MRX afternoon disco... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Soundings show rain changing to snow across the highest peaks of our mountains shortly after 06Z tonight. A good burst of snow is expected from 09Z to 12Z as lift is maximized due to strong vorticity moving through with the trough axis. 1 to 2 inches are expected during this time. From 09z to 12Z is also when valley areas have the best chances to see some rain, and perhaps a few snow flakes where cold enough. After the trough passes, around 12Z, the winds shift to the northwest and the mid-levels begin to dry out. When the wind shift occurs is when the northwest flow snow machine takes over across the eastern mountains. The favored upslope areas will see snow from 12Z Monday through early Tuesday morning. The bulk of the accumulating northwest flow snow occurs between 12Z Monday and 21Z Monday afternoon, then tapering off to lighter snow showers through early Tuesday morning. Total event snow, 06Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday is on the order of 1 to 3 inches above 2500 feet and 2 to 4 inches above 4000 feet. Locally higher snowfall amounts are possible across the highest peaks. Elevations below 2500 could see minor accumulations from a dusting up to half an inch near the foothills of the eastern mountains and across portions of southwest VA. The northern Cumberland Plateau may see a dusting. A winter weather advisory will be in place from Midnight tonight through Midnight Monday EST for portions of the east TN Mountains. A few flurries will remain through Tuesday morning. For Valley locations, flurries may linger after day break across the central valley and northward but will taper off through early afternoon. Clouds will be around for most of the day with temps only climbing to around 40 degrees and breezy northwest winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills around freezing. Wind chills across the highest elevations will approach single digits from late Monday afternoon and through the overnight hours.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Nah, it is LR forecasting...we all eat our words often! Great thing about our forum is we can throw ideas out there and take chances. Only way to get better is not to be afraid to be wrong, right? Definitely has a zonal look. One thing I have noted is that the LR models have missed strong trough amplifications of late. Anywhere where trends are heading BN may well be much colder as time gets closer.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The Atlantic is the wild card in modeling right now. Will it actually verify? Still think the warm water in the NW PAC makes it tough to put a trough into the West without a ridge popping there from time to time. Good trends in the LR compared to two days ago - not great but not terrible. Thing is those -NAO looks seem to be a bias and/or also seem to pop right around the time the SPV gets jostled. Definitely not bailing out on winter on December 6th. Probably going to be long bouts of warm, but have to think we see some shots of cold from time to time. If anything this year has taught me, take it a day at a time and enjoy each moment....well and 2020 has certainly proven that things can change quickly.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS AO is at -2 in places. So, looks like if we are going to have winter...the Atlantic is the ticket(think Jeff said as much in the winter thread). The MJO continues to look putrid which is a surprise to me. Would not be surprised to see it rotate over to 7, 8, 1 in a couple of weeks as some of the OLR maps show a diminishing wave over the warmer phase areas in the wester PAC and Indonesia.
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