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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Here is a nugget from the CANSIP monthly forecasts(BTW, it is usually blind to cold outbreaks so TIFWIW). It develops a -PDO(DJF) in conjunction with what looks like a La Nina which is displaced westward. That is torch city for our area IMO. Now, it could be wrong. ENSO forecasts have some skill at this range, but I have been burned many times in early to mid summer by an ENSO forecast that flopped. -PDO combined with La Nina is pretty much a ridge over the E and SE. No idea if the CANSIPS is correct. It does say that if we get winter Nov/Dec are our best options IMHO. Hopefully I don't have any of that backwards. @nrgjeff, does that seem right or am I oversimplifying this?
  2. Carvers Gap
    @Blue Moon, new forecasts(for each month) should begin to roll tomorrow with the CANSIPS being first and the Euro a few days later. Whew, been like a hair dryer in NE TN for the past couple of days. Steady winds and hot temps. It is drying everything out. Crazy that we are actually under a flash flood watch tomorrow!!! Need some rain big time here. We have been flirting with "abnormally dry" on the drought monitor for about a month(off and on). Everyone east of 81 got a great dousing of water a couple of days. Nada IMBY.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Man, just be glad you weren't in Eugene, Oregon, last week!!! The West has actually had incredible winters during the past decade in the northern Rockies and front range. The East is due, just not sure this is the year while fighting a La Nina. But who knows. I do think the IO firing in unfavorable locations of the MJO(unfavorable if one likes winter) is really throwing a wrench in things. @nrgjeff has been all over that. Bet it is a strong key this winter. I am just not sure if one can predict its frequency and intensity during the middle of summer, or I would have mentioned it.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Usually try to get my winter forecast about around this time. Will try with some quick prelim stuff: 1. Think we have another early start to winter. 2. So far on seasonal models...fall doesn't look half bad. Pretty similar to the pattern now ---> transient ridges in the East and over the top with seasonal air over TN. 3. Would not be surprised if winter had a major thaw at the end of December again. Question is, does it come back? Not sure. 4. For whatever reason, just kind of has the feel of two similar back-to-back winters. But we all know that is very rare to have similar winters like that. 5. At some point, I think the trough will tuck into southwest Canada and allow for Pacific or Gulf air to warm us up. Been a reoccurring them for several winters. Duration will decide our fate. 6. I do think we see sharp bouts of cold - I think a little bit more than last year, but similar. 7. Really hoping we get some nice fall weather this year. I am digging these cool nights that we have had for the past couple of months. I suspect we get seasonal warmth for July and August. IF we can get fall to start on time, I kind of feel like the summer might be short. But beware of extended summer with Nina patterns or even Nina hangover patterns. Snowfall: Slightly below average(but somebody may get a big thump....so we will see) Temps: Slightly AN for DJF but a potential cool start, and some severe cold shots thrown in for good measure. Again, maybe some very long stretches without winter weather. But I like our chances for a bit more cold this winter. Precip: Normal
  5. Carvers Gap
    Use any thread you want. Thanks for letting us know. Prayers for all of you.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the humidity out there is nuts. Went for a run, and it looked like someone had dumped a gatorade cooler over me once I had finished. I have run on days in the low 90s, and been more comfortable. Whew!
  7. Carvers Gap
    We have received about 1" of rainfall here in Kingsport for the month of June. Not terrible, but we have struck-out quite a bit on days where rain seemed a given. Had a lot of wind yesterday that seemed to come out of the blue.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the Euro seasonal has an extended summer look with warmth continuing into September and October. Then, it shifts the ridge out West for November. For December, it has ridging out West and over Greenland. December at 500 looks really good, though the temp map is warm over Canada as there is some hint of cold over Alaska which is a poor teleconnection for cold here - mixed signals but overall not a bad look. It is June, so take with a huge grain. Will be interesting to see if the ENSO manages to hover in the La Nada range by mid-winter. Would be nice to see a bit of La Nina this fall as that would increase chances for an earlier start to winter, and then have it switch to neutral or a bit above. Not saying that would happen, but it might decrease chances of a mid-late winter Nina induced torch. Weak Nina all winter would be optimal IMO.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Some nice rain here yesterday. Temps have been very tolerable given early summer. Looks like that continues through much of this week.
  10. Carvers Gap
    @PowellVolz, outstanding fish!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Some much needed rain this evening. Still need more, but a good start. Probably won't have to water the garden for a couple of days. You all can thank me for the pattern change. Stepped up and bought some irrigation stuff for my garden this week. Works like a champ. This guaranteed rain. I will be setting up a GoFundMe which will help fund this sacrifice.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the rainless streak ends tomorrow. Also, looks like @nrgjeff is going to nail the upcoming pattern - no surprise. He is a LR guru(and short and mid-range guru as well). The Euro Weeklies look much improved in terms of precip.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Hasn't rained here since May 12th. 1.80" BN for the month. Things can get quite dry in TRI quite quickly with even the slightest downsloping winds. Had a day recently where we watered the garden in the AM, and it was suffering by that afternoon. Looks like Friday is a good chance for rain. We need it. That Bermuda high is just parked on some modeling. The 12z EPS is BN for precip even with that event on Friday. Read where Cosgrove noted the Bermuda high may slide a little eastward around mid-July and that should provide return flow for the SE. It would also allow for a weakness between a high out West and that Bermuda high. The only downside is that this would also provide a realistic path for hurricanes to track into Gulf States then as well. Again, I am not a huge fan of watering my garden this early. During many years when that occurs, we play catch-up all summer. Now, we don't want hot and humid at the same time. Temps this week have actually been tolerable. Think John noted in the obs thread that humidity levels are allowing for comfortable overnight temps.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The peppers in my garden are hating these cold nights. Manage to coax up some beans despite the cold rains a few weeks ago. Dry summers actually work for my garden provided there is no sudden spike in humidity which summons all kinds of plant disease. I haven't planted corn yet. Will probably swap out some cool wx stuff next week and plant some sweet corn. Sweet potatoes are also due to be planted.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies almost always look warm to me. Glad to read Jeff's comments above. I just don't like seeing these ridges lock in place. Often seems like modeling will try to break them down (think -NAO this past winter) too quickly. My yard will be fried after next week. No rain and lots of heat. I always consider it an ominous sign to be watering my garden during spring. Rarely turns out well(in terms of moisture) during the following summer. We are long overdue for an extended period of dry weather.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies are hinting at developing dry with possible drought conditions developing through the next 6 weeks. The spigot, after several years of good rains, is off. TBD on when it returns. Thinking this might be the beginning of a very dry time frame measuring in months if not years - but THAT is getting far to ahead of myself.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Dodged one with a frost on the rooftops last week, but the garden was spared....Looks like summer heat is about to show-up and have some staying power. My garden needs some seasonably warm weather - and consistent rain(which may be tough to come by with the modeled Bermuda high configuration).
  18. Carvers Gap
  19. Carvers Gap
    Cold rain.....feels like spring is about to put it in reverse.
  20. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff thoughts about potential drought if La Nina double dips???
  21. Carvers Gap
    In hindsight, that was definitely the way to go. We have a hoop house for our garden that does that for us. Just need something to trap the earth's heat and leave a little bit of separation with the cover. I figured the peach would be ok since it it right next to the house, but the cold air must have dammed against the house there. It looks better than I though today. These late season freezes tax our resources - tarps, plastic, etc. Some stuff(if we didn't have covers) we were simply like...good luck! LOL. The one thing which I would have covered better were our blueberry bushes which were in full bloom.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Good thinking. We covered up our patio peach as well. Man, it is was still burned though. I think the duration of time which we were in the 20s was the problem. We will see if it survives.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Wind blown pollen, snow, wind chills in the mid 30s.....sounds just like another day in paradise.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Man, it looks rough out there. Some of our covered stuff was still hit pretty badly.
  25. Carvers Gap
    So it shall be written, so shall it be done.
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