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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Really like where the ensembles 12z GEPS and 18z GEFS are headed.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Again, have said if for days...very LOW confidence right now. Think about this, models originally had a total torch(and I mean raging torch) beginning on the 18th. As for the potential Christmas event, all of the normal model biases are in play. I do not buy the models which are holding too much energy back. Not sure I buy the models that are too quick either. Right now, this reminds me(in some ways) very much of the early December track which hammered the Midwest. One important piece is that the GFS brings a much colder (and bigger) air mass. It is an outlier in this regard. However, we know the Euro has a bias of not "seeing" cold air masses and their deepening troughs. I don't have a ton invested right now. Our last major snow was over two years ago IMBY. So, I don't hold my breath too much. If we get the Christmas storm great, if not....historically always a long shot to get big snows on Christmas at lower elevations. And right now this pattern is a good one for higher elevations, and not so much for lower elevations at this latitude. My gut tells me there will be a storm, but likely rain in the far eastern areas(low elevations) with more wintery precise the further west one goes from I75...again, just a guess. The LR is growing more uncertain with each day - after showing a promising pattern for several weeks. I think the uncertainty of the MJO is disrupting modeling. I think we are entering a time frame of great uncertainty - much more so than a normal year. I think we will have our chances during January and maybe later this month. This pattern is far more active than I thought it would be, and that is a good thing.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Guessing the Euro/UKMet are a bit slow wit the energy to our southwest and the GFS a bit too fast. Blend those solutions, and looks decent to me. I agree with tnweathernut above in this aspect, that powerhouse low is what is driving the cold front. Many a winter storm has been born on a trailing cold front - been a while since that has happened here. Will be interesting to see the ensembles for the Euro in terms of slp locations.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Low in the Lakes is no bueno. That said, a low near Brownsville with a big front incoming looks poised to make a run.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is showing powerful cold front. Would not surprise me to see a waver(even two if it slows down), run that front. That is old school right there. Might be similar to the earlier system in December but on steroids.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Man, you didn't jinx us. Right now we are living through a pandemic and one crazy year...whatever happens, this one is most definitely NOT on you if it fizzles! LOL. And thanks for the TRI numbers.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Goodbye power!
  8. Carvers Gap
    The overnight lows with snow on the ground and that air mass might get some of us below zero. Wind chills would be straight nasty. GFS depicts that scenario pretty well.
  9. Carvers Gap
    My only worry(for E TN folks) is a progressive model has us in the bullseye. The ICON is the other side of the envelope. GFS would be a 100K view thread.
  10. Carvers Gap
    KMA is a great weather model name. Dr No and then...KMA!!!...if you catch my drift. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    LOL. For sure...Basically just wanting folks to understand that we are about to enter a time where confidence is very low.
  12. Carvers Gap
    To say that LR modeling is all over the place right now...might be an understatement. Huge swings over our region from run to run. Consistent(using that term loosely) features seem to be a -NAO...man, that might be about it. LOL.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Any good trends with overnight model runs?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Low confidence. At this point today, just not seeing anything but a "thread the needle" scenario for snow. CFSv2 shows some hope after week one, but not holding my breath. Trends during the past 24 hours have been towards a big ridge building in after Christmas - surprise! Total flip. Big amplification around Christmas, and almost immediately replaced by a ridge. Better than a torch and not really hostile to snow...but not really anything that looks as awesome as a couple of days ago. Pretty sure a good church of those runs was a mirage - may come back later, but 12z looking rough.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS hammers NC with two storms. The first is nearly perfectly placed and if real, would also likely hammers E TN. There is a second right after it. If one takes the progressive GFS at its word, that is right where we want both storms. Certainly laid down the gauntlet.
  16. Carvers Gap
    D9+...12z EPS has basically a double block. EPO and Atlantic.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Quite the block showing up between d8-10 on modeling over Greenland.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think these WxBell snow algorithms are way off. Shows snow on the surface map, but no accumulations....
  19. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll falling down on the job with regard to the Euro. Is that a cold front inducing snow(and not even going to put the jinx on what day that is!)?
  20. Carvers Gap
    As a caveat, this is not a forecast, but just providing an example of what a cold air delivery system looks like. This is the very end of the CMC(GFS is very similar)...PNA/EPO ridge(kind of a hybrid), riding into Alaska, AN heights over Greenland. This opens the door for very cold air. Again, this is an example and just one option of many which are on the table.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS and CMC are really cold later in their runs.
  22. Carvers Gap
    MBY is at about 730 days - I think since the last time I have had more than 2" fall at once (off the top of my head). Not even sure I have seen a decent storm pattern in a couple of years...I may go dig back through the threads. December 2018 is my last decent storm I believe. I might have gotten 1/2" with that deal a couple of weeks ago, and that is not a winter storm in my book. I don't agree with that 13 at lower elevations where people live - nothing against you, Jax, just whoever made that map. Definite lack of Miller A tracks evident there.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I don't have a ton to add to yesterday, so I am going to bump my comments from yesterday. Bout where I am at the moment....
  24. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I enjoyed the Euro Control yesterday so much, I put my comments in the observations thread...BNA has it covered above, so here is my post from yesterday from the obs thread: Then entire control run(Weeklies) was lit...cold and pretty much built a glacier over E TN. Incredibly strong NAO signature. I think the control was pushing 20" over NE TN. The mean is less enthused...but I am riding the control - LOL. Give me the Euro Weeklies control for the 500 pattern....like the entire run.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Underrated post right there.
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