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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro continues with a progressive pattern of cutters and low road lows(which lack cold). What is actually cool about that run is that it has the AK to SE trough(albeit temporary) which ensembles have struggled with for about a week. Some bitterly cold air in north/central Canada along the eastern shores of Hudson Bay.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That's pretty hilarious. I see that we have a few who speak our local wx microclimate dialect.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Whew. Good luck making heads or tails out of any of those runs - GEM or GFS at 12z. Lots of cutters. Maybe one or two taking the low road with cold air lacking. When models goes haywire like that, makes me wonder if we are about to see some very cold air invaded the lower 48, maybe just after the day14-16 window(basically just outside of modeling's range). Lots of chaos in those two model runs.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I have to be honest...I am not seeing a locked-in pattern on the operational runs at all. Just looks like a pattern with a lot of variability.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Inside joke for the rest of the TRI Kingsport crew. If you know what we are talking about, discuss let's not...we all need our relatives still working. LOL...downsloping is just one of the problems we have to overcome.
  6. Carvers Gap
    LOL. You know we are going to be last in Kingsport and you know why!
  7. Carvers Gap
    About 300, the 18z GEFS has a ridge now out West. Likely temporary, but illustrates the uncertainty after the 18th.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Also in the "evening" news from the MA forum(above info was from there as well), the 18z GFS does put the hammer on the SPV. Bout all I got for now.
  9. Carvers Gap
    DT is mentioning a fairly significant weakening of the La Nina (maybe in the Euro sesaononals) over the next six months. Not sure that helps us at this latitude as it might not help until March. That said, I will take a weakening Nina vs a strengthening one. It is very important to note that most ensembles, monthly model runs, and seasonal models missed the December cold snap. I will post the Euro seasonal for December if I get a chance later. That said, if the Euro is going to miss...Nov/Dec are usually excellent candidates.
  10. Carvers Gap
    That is kind of my thinking. Maybe get some truly cold air into the Rockies and let it bleed eastward at times.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Hey, man. Glad to see back posting more.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Cold shot comes through the 13th. Right now looks dry before the next system may cut right at the end of that timeframe you mentioned. IMHO, still a lot of uncertainty during that time frame. The 12z Euro operational has a really strong trough amplification then. Would not surprise me to see something along the EC. Euro pops a low off NC around the 15th.
  13. Carvers Gap
    MRX afternoon disco... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Soundings show rain changing to snow across the highest peaks of our mountains shortly after 06Z tonight. A good burst of snow is expected from 09Z to 12Z as lift is maximized due to strong vorticity moving through with the trough axis. 1 to 2 inches are expected during this time. From 09z to 12Z is also when valley areas have the best chances to see some rain, and perhaps a few snow flakes where cold enough. After the trough passes, around 12Z, the winds shift to the northwest and the mid-levels begin to dry out. When the wind shift occurs is when the northwest flow snow machine takes over across the eastern mountains. The favored upslope areas will see snow from 12Z Monday through early Tuesday morning. The bulk of the accumulating northwest flow snow occurs between 12Z Monday and 21Z Monday afternoon, then tapering off to lighter snow showers through early Tuesday morning. Total event snow, 06Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday is on the order of 1 to 3 inches above 2500 feet and 2 to 4 inches above 4000 feet. Locally higher snowfall amounts are possible across the highest peaks. Elevations below 2500 could see minor accumulations from a dusting up to half an inch near the foothills of the eastern mountains and across portions of southwest VA. The northern Cumberland Plateau may see a dusting. A winter weather advisory will be in place from Midnight tonight through Midnight Monday EST for portions of the east TN Mountains. A few flurries will remain through Tuesday morning. For Valley locations, flurries may linger after day break across the central valley and northward but will taper off through early afternoon. Clouds will be around for most of the day with temps only climbing to around 40 degrees and breezy northwest winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills around freezing. Wind chills across the highest elevations will approach single digits from late Monday afternoon and through the overnight hours.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Nah, it is LR forecasting...we all eat our words often! Great thing about our forum is we can throw ideas out there and take chances. Only way to get better is not to be afraid to be wrong, right? Definitely has a zonal look. One thing I have noted is that the LR models have missed strong trough amplifications of late. Anywhere where trends are heading BN may well be much colder as time gets closer.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The Atlantic is the wild card in modeling right now. Will it actually verify? Still think the warm water in the NW PAC makes it tough to put a trough into the West without a ridge popping there from time to time. Good trends in the LR compared to two days ago - not great but not terrible. Thing is those -NAO looks seem to be a bias and/or also seem to pop right around the time the SPV gets jostled. Definitely not bailing out on winter on December 6th. Probably going to be long bouts of warm, but have to think we see some shots of cold from time to time. If anything this year has taught me, take it a day at a time and enjoy each moment....well and 2020 has certainly proven that things can change quickly.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS AO is at -2 in places. So, looks like if we are going to have winter...the Atlantic is the ticket(think Jeff said as much in the winter thread). The MJO continues to look putrid which is a surprise to me. Would not be surprised to see it rotate over to 7, 8, 1 in a couple of weeks as some of the OLR maps show a diminishing wave over the warmer phase areas in the wester PAC and Indonesia.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The EPS ensembles are running about -1 for the NAO which is much more negative than the Weeklies from TR. Will try to post some LR pics. The EPS, if right, would provide us with some chances. I don't think anyone has been promising a big winter, but that look is not as bad as I thought it would be.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Beast of a -NAO showing up on the 12z EPS. No idea if that verifies, but seems to be a feature that has some staying power(and not just in the LR). What do you think?
  19. Carvers Gap
    Sneaky system for NE TN and SW VA tomorrow. Looks like light rain in the valley, but if this comes in over night with a period of clearing right before onset....
  20. Carvers Gap
    To echo what John said above, the 0z EPS d10+ was a significant improvement, and an example of how we stay in a colder pattern with the AK vortex. The tricky party of that is a -NAO/-AO couplet, and it has been some time since we have seen that feature stay for long periods of time during winter. Might this be that winter? I don't know. That said, the 0z EPS has a decently consistent negative AO/NAO couplet. This creates a feature which has been unusual during the past decade. That feature is BN heights in both AK and the Southeast US. That can happen, but help from the Atlantic is usually how that occurs. One final comment...as I went to pull these up, it appears the big change is the AO over the past few runs of the EPS is actually more negative.
  21. Carvers Gap
    After next week, looks like the current cooler pattern will relax or change to a new pattern from say Dec 18-Jan7. The CFSv2 implies that the trough will return early in the new year as does the GEFS extended. The GEFS holds a -AO/-NAO couplet. The GEPS/EPS lose the Pacific. The American model suites tend to have an Atlantic driven pattern - that would be unusual per the last decade's results and should be viewed with some healthy skepticism - but not discounted. The warm pool in the northern Pacific is making it tough for troughs to hold there IMO. In the days (prior to winter disappearing after early Dec), we would call what is upcoming a "thaw," and would be a very normal time frame for that to happen. So, looks like the second week in January is the fork in the road. If we are going to have winter return, looks like that is the time - and by "return" I just mean a healthy pattern where things oscillate between warm and cold (I don't think we lock into a cold pattern this winter for more than 10 days or so).
  22. Carvers Gap
    Interesting for sure and a great share. Looks like the 6z off-run of the Euro is slightly SE of 0z. Wonder if the models which over-amped the last storm are doing the same with this one? I bet the solution is somewhere in between the Euro/UKMET and GFS. Probably not good for us as that would shift the phase eastward, but probably less benign than the GFS.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Good find. Nice snow at the surface in SW VA which is a BIG change. Was fairly benign until that run.
  24. Carvers Gap
    For those new to the forum, this is what a lot of us look at(maybe not this company, but overlays or side-by-sides) of previous runs in order to see trends. This is the 12z(left) and 0z(right) of the GEPS(Canadian ensemble). You can see the trough digging much deeper with the EPO really stout. Now, it likely still lifts out...but that is a pretty significant change. This is at range and changes are to be expected. IF it were to verify, that is a very cold look. The difference at 500 is Ohio to central FL in comparison between runs at 500.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS(Canadian) starting the d10+ time frame with a much deeper trough in the East. Ridge out west is proving to be a stubborn feature. Will update in this post for the rest of its run if I get a chance. ...Not going to post much more as the run at 258 is much colder(just looking at 500) with another shot of cold air coming from upstream. It may well eventually revert to its 0z look, but that is a rally cold look.
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