Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Snowed steadily for an hour or two here as well this AM - a trace in the grass. Reminds me of June out in Yellowstone. You kind of get the feeling that spring is waiting around the corner, but winter isn't quite giving up just yet.
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Had yet another day running in the snow. I have never seen so many days of snow with so few inches of it! LOL. -
It is crazy. We are in a pattern where we have a threat about every 7-10 days. I really like the March 3rd -15th timeframe. MJO is less hostile(unless it dives into 6). The EMON and Euro really like the MJO heading into background cooler/colder phases. US modeling is not there yet. Just get us some cold into this active weather pattern, and let's see what it can cook up! LOL.
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Looks like another system for middle and west just glancing through the 192 panels. GFS is all E TN, but it really struggled with this current system.
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So the 12z GFS and the Euro at 192 are trying to snow during the warm-up. That is a change.
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We haven't had a load of snow at TRI this winter, but I decided to see how many days in the snow we have run. Double checked it with records at TR...looks like TRI has received 17 days of a trace or more. Talk about nickel and diming. It doesn't amount to a lot as there are a ton of dustings. We do a lot of running above 2,000', and that has been out of commission due to mud and snow during the past couple of weeks. Again, I "think" one last window awaits just after March 3rd. One word of caution, some of these warm-ups have actually had chances during those time frames. Wavelengths during spring can cause abrupt swings as you all know.
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It is worth noting, and I can tell this due to my running journal, that we are getting events about every 7-10 days in NE TN. We have run in a lot of snow and slop this winter - more days than I have seen in some time. We have also run in A LOT of mud.
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An upper South skiff of sleet IMBY this AM.
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Last two windows I am looking at before we break for spring: 1. Outside shot around the 25th...Most model looks are cutters for the now. The para-GFS is close to something good. For now though, looks like a cutter. 2. Time frame after March 3rd looks like an actual significant trough amplification or a big bowling ball. Each trough amplification this year has pretty much produced somewhere in the forum. This amplification might well be more than just a 1-2 day event, but it also could just be a big storm showing up on LR 500 modeling. I "think" that last window mentioned is just a repeat of the current pattern which we have been a part of all winter. Big amplification somewhere between the Rockies and Apps, followed by significant moderation in the pattern(a reload), and wash-rinse-repeat. Think we cycle through that one more time. Even though climatology works against many at this point, I would suggest that the amplification potential in early March doesn't rule anyone out. Late winter and spring chasing is full of uncertainty, so beware. But it does snow in March sometimes. Looks like Cosgrove late month warm-up will verify. He also says the pattern will recharge. Normally, I would say we are about to break for spring. In reality, I think we are about to experience another 7-10 warm-up before yet another cold shot into the Lower 48.
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Hit my forecast high on time. Should start coming back down.
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18z RGEM has run....added more snow for TRI.
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Make sure you drink plenty of water and stay out of the sun.
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Two words for ya in regard to that...process upset.
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Sitting at 75 here in Kingsport.
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Double edged sword IMO. As Boone notes, it cuts the warm nose. However, heavier rates may well have forced the air column to cool more efficiently.
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This system is now becoming "almost" a traditional slider.
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Trend right now is for a faster system and less precip due to that. RGEM cut my qpf by half....still mostly frozen but much less precip overall. Looks like it cut precip totals across the state.
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12k NAM is absolutely terrible for TRI regarding ice. 3k NAM is better. Trend for TRI on the NAM is ice right now.
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So, who wants to talk about the 0z GFS-para?
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Hey, got two dustings today alone. My house had nothing during one of those, and drove two miles to find the rooftops covered. Made me think of Lake Effect snow bands.... Please read my post in a SNL Jack Handy voice...
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The 12K is just a nasty mess.
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18z GEFS mean is stout....
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With the NAM now coming in line, looks like most modeling is now showing a total mess for the NE Valley and potential well SE of that - even southeast of TYS. Yesterday, I kind of cast a wary eye towards such a quick flip...but it is freakin' cold out there right now. Wind chills here are in the mid to upper teens. I know we are supposed to hit the 40s tomorrow...but this is fresh, cold air...not the stagnant stuff that usually sets up most ice storms. Cold air can definitely get moved around quickly - not saying that. I have seen very cold air masses evacuated within an hour. However, as flat as this storm is trending, it may weaken the warm nose or even blunt it. It would not surprise me to see northern sections of the valley(SW VA) stay frozen most of the way with this. The flatter it gets, the more it behaves as a slider along the KY/TN/VA borders. Models since yesterday morning have signaled frozen precip, and increasingly so. Still not a ton of consistency with amounts, and I don't expect that to change. Right now, looks like sloppiest city!
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So, go check out the MJO stuff this morning. The EURO and GEFS are now both doing exactly what the EMON showed a few days ago....headfake to warm phases and then quickly heading towards colder phases. I have noted many times that actual modeling in MJO areas looks like phases 1-2 will fire and that the MJO "should" loop to cooler phases just based on the modeling themselves and not the plots. Will post the EMON with my other account.
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Interesting feature on the 0z RGEM (which the 18z NAM had) was a secondary wave showing up along the front. Not implausible, and something to watch. The 0z RGEM is just as nasty as its 18z counterpart, BUT it has about 1/3 less overall precip. I think this is because the system is being forced to slide along a bit vs just roaring up the valley. This fits a recent trend(will it continue) of the SLP being forced further east and less of its energy not being allowed to force its way up west of the Apps. Looks like modeling is feeling the cold high to the north and west of the eastern valley on this run.
