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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    3K NAM is much more robust over NE TN and maybe even back to MRX. Pops a lee side low - finally seeing that dynamic. Doubt it is done correcting.
  2. Carvers Gap
    MRX mentioned that wind chill values could range from -5 to 5 above at their worst. That is COLD!
  3. Carvers Gap
    I have seen snow roll in out West one time which was similar to this - on June 14th!!! Got 5-6" of snow at 6,000'. Was an incredible day of fishing to boot. Motion is sped up a bit, but the wall of snow is what is impressive.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 for this date is much colder than other modeling for January, but its MJO is also much different(and maybe wrong?) as it is an outlier. But it certainly shows how to have a cold-ish pattern.
  5. Carvers Gap
    LR after the New Year is full of uncertainty. MJO is showing some signs of heading to low amplitude warm phases or COD areas of the warm phases. Will the -NAO connect into a ridge over the EC? Will a western ridge form and couple with the NAO, and thus create a very wintry pattern? What about the SSW? I am less and less of an SSW person. We had a great one during a spring a few years back. However, we had a super pattern upended by one since then. As I watch modeling become more uncertain in the LR(even more so than it has been), makes me wonder if the SSW is wrecking havoc. One constant on nearly all modeling is a very persistent NAO. I think that feature has probably saved us from a torch after the first week of December when we lost the PNA. Would be awesome to see the PNA and NAO both in favorable phases. We may have a chance of that briefly at times. So what do I "think" about January. I think the NAO is going to be there through at least mid-month. I think there are times that block will be so expansive that it will connect with the eastern ridge. I think there will be times when it retracts and forces most storms underneath like we are seeing now. I think there are times when we will see brief windows of a western and/or east Pacific ridge coupled with that NAO. Right now the cold source region for air is going be much above normal re temps with the exception of Alaska. It is entirely possible that we see a pattern where Alaska is cold and areas of BN heights stretch SE into the lower 48(northern Plains into the Mid-West). I am not as encourage by that pattern as I was a few days ago. I think a potential SSW is going to make, and is currently making, any LR modeling solution extremely suspicious right now. Let's just hope it doesn't take a favorable pattern and squash it. OTH, if it is possible the SSW could funnel cold into NA, add in the NAO..and it could get interesting. About the only things that I have marginal confidence about are the NAO being a constant, a persistent southern storm track in conjunction with an equal or greater number of cutters, poor cold air sources, and the MJO working back into the COD areas(at least) of the warm phases - not all of those at the same time. Right now it is like a great pattern is competing with a really lousy pattern....some of each will likely show. I lean AN for temps in January with normal snowfall. The great looking pattern from a week ago seems far less certain today. I do think a western trough is in play now for January.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro did move the snow axis over the GL ever so slightly eastward. Have seen similar trends on most modeling tonight. That finite detail might help areas to the southwest of the current cutoff if the trend continues. Think the overall trend has been more neutral tilt which prevents the slp over western NC and/or the spine of the Apps to pull further westward. Been good. See you all tomorrow.
  7. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro accumulation map is almost identical to 18z in E TN w a slight tweak upward over western Knox Co.
  8. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro is rolling. The 0z UKMET has somewhat upped totals east and north of Knoxville for pretty much the totality of the storm. It has been the weakest of all solutions for the past several runs. Since last night, it has slowly inched upward into a formidable storm to our north.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Even after time stamp on the map above, there is an upslope component that adds more to the NE TN and SW VA areas. Absolute best case scenario for sure...Cold rushes into the storm earlier and the angle of approach is improved. Chattanooga, portions of Alabama, and even northern Georgia get into the action. Western NC can score one of two ways...change-over and/or upslope afterwards.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC is a pretty massive winter storm.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Seems like the trend at 0z is to lower the angle of entry into the forum area. We saw the runs all day sharpen up the trough. The trough at 0z (absent the NAM) looks more neutral. Also, take a look at the top of the snow axis over the GL region. Toggle back a run, and you can see it "lean" to the east. That allows more snowfall on the SW side of the storm and into more of the forum area to the west.
  12. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC. Nice run.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Track is good...just need more precip. Seems like models have shifted slightly SE - minus the NAM which is way on the western periphery.
  14. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS at 42. Low is nearly in Upstate SC. Flow is flatter.
  15. Carvers Gap
    0z GEFS is rolling.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Heaviest snow axis has shifted slightly SE on the RGEM. Good run. Held serve pretty much.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I think we are looking at a powerful front/storm which modeling just is having trouble getting a handle on...
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think we are just looking at a model that is just now getting into range. It could be a trend setter or it could be an outlier. Just seems like the NAM's really amped line of storms is cutting off moisture transport behind the front, and thus lowering totals. Is the cold front slower when diving into the front or is it a lack of moisture behind the line of storms?
  19. Carvers Gap
    3k NAM on Tropical Tidbits looks reasonable, right?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Think it is slightly too early to be using SREF plums and the NAM right now. Might me right, but looks suspicious....
  21. Carvers Gap
    Have seen little model support for that solution today. Maybe there is some new data which supports that...but the NAM just looks over the top amped.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 500 vort map stuff, looks like the front on the GFS/NAM combo is a lot stronger than most of the other models. It is pulling the storm well west...just not sure how believable that is, but also illustrates just how difficult this is to get right. "Low confidence" has been my phrase all week. Yep...pretty much.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 0z 12k NAM at 39 is well west of the 18z run. Just looks overly amped - like way over the top stuff. It might be right...but it might not.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Was a hair east of 12z(barely) in both snow axis and slp. Slightly more snow in NE TN is reflected by the shift. Overall, very similar.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Man, the NAM is just amped on that run. Nice run for NE TN in terms of Kuchera totals, but wouldn't trust that model as far as I could throw it at this range! LOL. As tnweathernut said...thunder, lightning, and snow all in the same day. 2020 for ya right there.
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