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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Found this to be a really interesting Tweet(saw this in the MA forum)...
  2. Carvers Gap
    MRX has released a hazardous wx outlook for two events, freezing fog this morning and the storm which we are tracking on Christmas Eve. Here is the morning disco... A trough will be dropping SE out of the Canadian Rockies to the northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, and deepen as a strong jet moves around the base of it. A dual jet structure develops on Wednesday night with a streak over KY/OH and another aligned W-E across the deep South, which produces strong upper divergence and QG forcing over our area in the 09-15Z Thu time frame. Heavy rainfall may be a concern during this time. Another concern will be how quickly cold air moves in behind the frontogenesis zone and whether it will happen quickly enough for a change to snow before moisture and deep lift exit. The forecast will have some changeover to snow only in the mountains Thursday morning. With strong cold advection through the day, temperatures will be falling through the afternoon. Precip chances will also be falling as drier air aloft builds in, but with steepening lapse rates, some scattered rain or snow showers will be possible. The upper trough axis will move over the area Thursday night, bringing extremely cold air aloft that will further steepen lapse rates and increase the coverage of snow showers in the evening, continuing into Friday. GEFS shows an 850 mb temperature anomaly that is 20 degrees below normal, so highs on Friday are only expected to be in the 20s for northern sections, with lower 30s central and south and possibly in the teens in the mountains. A 30 kt W-NW 850 mb flow will enhance snow accumulations in the higher elevations of East TN and SW VA. The coverage of snow showers will gradually taper off Friday night as the upper trough axis allows for some stabilization. Snow accumulations at this time continue to be uncertain, but given the extremely cold air mass and steep lapse rates, some snow showers are possible across the entire area, mainly Thursday night. Highest chances for an inch or more accumulation will be in the mountains, SW VA, and NE TN. As mentioned above, an earlier onset of cold air while precip rates are high on Thursday morning could result in greater accumulations.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Overall, I feel like the precip was further out in front of the actual cold air. Was super close to a cold chasing rain event. That said, I think the lift once this system hits the Plateau may give the backside of this a chance to change over to snow. Very similar run to 18z. Also, very good chance the Euro is dragging its heels a bit. See you all tomorrow.
  4. Carvers Gap
    At 90, cold air is lagging behind the precip band compared to 18z.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Out to 84, looks like convection over Louisiana is cutting off some of the moisture transport northward. Likely is a result of a much more organized low over the GL area.
  6. Carvers Gap
    At 78, the GL low is at 986 compared to 993 at 18z. Front is a tad quicker and more robust as it enters western TN.
  7. Carvers Gap
    At 72, the low in the GL area is 3mb deeper than 18z.
  8. Carvers Gap
    At 66, the system/front coming out of the NW looks slightly more compact and organized at 500
  9. Carvers Gap
    Through 51, again just a tick quicker. Will be interesting to see what if any impact it has down stream.
  10. Carvers Gap
    At 42, the Euro looks slightly quicker but otherwise pretty much the same one 500 vort maps.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Will be interesting to see if this trends stronger. A powerful front like this "should" have the potential to tap the GOM and form a low. The front is moving so fast, it might limit slp formation until it gets past our latitude though...
  12. Carvers Gap
    That'll do right there. And yeah, the CMC almost went to a weak Miller A. Weak impulse moved from GC states up through the Piedmont. As MRX noted, with such a strong front, climatology supports the genesis of a slp along that front.
  13. Carvers Gap
    What site do you use for the UKMET? I can see it on the MeteoCentre website. Increments are too far apart for me to make any kind of inferences.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Today's GEFS extended 35 day snow totals below. Also, take a look at the 18z CFSv2. It(CFSv2) bounces around quite a bit, but nice run for January. Anyway, the GEFS extended has snow all of the way to the Gulf Coast. I think that means a trace(or more) of snow would fall in all of the lower 48 by late January. If the advertised pattern verifies, there is a chance this has some merit. Huge grain of salt though as always at this range! Also, I do like this as it gives a good idea of where the storm tracks might be.....
  15. Carvers Gap
    I will politely leave that to John - I may chime in if it is good. He has been doing a great job for the past few nights and has brought the good mojo. Since, I don't have to handle virtual school duties tomorrow, I may try to stay up - but I am out of shape(meaning I am not used to late night model shenanigans!). @Holston_River_Rambler, has the UKMET run yet?
  16. Carvers Gap
    All right, what time does the Euro begin to roll?
  17. Carvers Gap
    I really don't like seeing the global models(admittedly at range) not on board at all - in some cases not even a flake. However, the GEFS ensemble held steady if not upped its amounts just a bit. Need to see those short range models make a move at some point(other than just a frontal passage).
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I would say the 0z CMC hopped on this shaky bandwagon.
  19. Carvers Gap
    CMC has a fairly significant uptick of snow west of the Apps.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Was talking about the Dandridge dollop and the Chattanooga 84 year Christmas snow drought comments. And yeah, as I have said for days...low confidence.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Pretty epic first page for a storm thread. LOL.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Well, it surely looks like it is going to be ridiculously cold. LOL
  23. Carvers Gap
    MRX with an excellent write-up... The most uncertain part of the extended forecast will be the potential for snow across portions of the forecast area. Again as noted previously, there remains large disagreement with regards to how quick the cold front moves through the area, and how quickly the cold air is able to move into the region. The more progressive GFS suggests most of the precipitation will be out of the area by Thursday morning with snow showers from northwest flow aloft into Thursday night. The ECMWF and CMC are slower with a frontal passage late Thursday, but have trended a bit quicker than previous runs. Previous runs of the ECMWF depicted wrap around moisture and precipitation but the 12Z runs have backed off on this solution, and are in good agreement with the 12Z CMC. Climatologically speaking, such a deep trough should promote surface cyclogenesis somewhere across the southeast or mid Atlantic during this time. The 20.00 and 20.12 suite of guidance is suggestive of this solution but again there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding where this low sets up and how strong the low will be. All of this will play an integral role in how much moisture will be left over for potential wintry precipitation. The official forecast as of this afternoon suggests temperatures will fall behind the front late Thursday and into Thursday night. Rain will change over to snow from west to east late Thursday with light snow showers or flurries lingering across northern portions of the forecast area through Friday. It is still too early to forecast snow amounts with any amount of certainty. What is more certain is that temperatures will plummet behind the front with deep troughing expected. Temperatures as much as 10-20 degrees below average is a good probability at this point. An increasing pressure gradient immediately behind the front will create gusty gradient winds across most of the area. These winds will obviously bring cold wind chills to the area Friday morning and Saturday morning. Surface high pressure settles into the region Saturday and into Sunday with building heights as a ridge builds into the plains. Temperatures will begin to slightly moderate with this building ridge but will continue to be below climatology.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Will keep it quick...Seems like models are narrowing down to a solution which will involve a wave running along a very strong cold front on Christmas Eve. I have been using the term "low confidence" during the past few days. Sometimes waves/weak slp along a front a money and sometimes not. Super difficult to predict due to timing and location of the disturbance along the boundary in relation to our location. For now, looks to me like a strengthening area of slp will slide through western North Carolina. Normally, that track is bad mojo for E TN. With the cold air modeled to quickly rush into the region, there is a chance that this might involve accumulating snow north of I40 in the eastern Valley. Any amount of snow is a bonus on Christmas! After last winter, tracking a potential winter event this year is pretty awesome. Either way, cold air will quickly spread into the region on Thursday night. My "lean" is that this could strengthen over time as models now seem to have the synoptics of the storm within their grasp. Lots of speculation in that last sentence, so take with a huge grain! As for a second wave which accentuates the snow on the back side, big question mark. If it does not feed into the front, it likely could keep snow in the air on Christmas days with intermittent snow showers. The next 24 hours of modeling will likely tell us if this storm will be a nuisance or something bigger. If anyone is traveling through the Appalachian Mountains on Christmas Eve(specifically I--26, I-40, or I-81), they need to stay up-to-date regarding local weather forecasts.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Liking that the Euro and GFS are back with a storm....Bigger deal is they are both now showing a stronger push of cold air. The Euro was missing that a few runs ago. The 0z Euro had some anomalies of -25 below normal(not an actual temp) over the eastern valley with highs in the mid 20s north of I40 and from points east of Nashville. Chattanooga may not get out of the low to mid 30s according to the 0z Euro on Christmas Day - unless their highs at midnight are warm(temps rapidly dropping throughout the day). The 6z GFS is much colder with temps in the single digits to lower teens on Christmas morning in NE TN with temps not getting out of the teens during the day. Christmas night is very gold on the Canadian and American models. It seemed yesterday that the storm was weaker when the cold was not as expansive or severe. Something to watch.
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