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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Man, missed you during the latter half of this week. Been too quiet on the forum. Hate to hear that about the deer. That is scary stuff. There are loads in my neighborhood. Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards. And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. LOL. That run looked like it was running for office...promised something to every region of the country, and no way it is going to deliver. 12z GEFS looked steady though.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I knew something was up. Good to have you back.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Look at the min for the region shown on this map from the 12z GFS. -77.1F!!! Looks like our source region for cold is getting a bit better.
  5. Carvers Gap
    SSWs in my opinion are like letting a bull loose in a china shop....The only thing predictable is that it is going to wreck havoc. Seemed like last January's SSW did actually propagate downward fairly effectively into two or three daughter vortices at the tropospheric level. There was extreme cold associated with and record snowfall in western Montana and western Wyoming. One might make an argument that it took nearly ten months for those effects to wear off. They had snow well into May and June at 6,000' out there. Their warm season lasted only from July to August, before winter came very early. Unpredictably severe cold is often associated with them. Plenty of SSWs do "fail." I think we just want it properly shaken...not stirred. Sorry...couldn't resist.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That -68F over Greenland at 324? Has the GFS ever gone that low on this side of the globe? Not sure I remember seeing anything remotely that cold on the GFS in that area.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Working through modeling, Twitter, JMA, and even a little JB this AM....I think the cold start to December is plausible. I have seen some 1960s analogs being tossed around. I do agree that the setup being portrayed is a bit unusual in that teleconnections favor both an eastern and western trough. Pac is favorable for the West. Atlantic is favorable for the East. There are significant differences in how the American model and Euro model are handling the MJO. The GEFS is taking the MJO through the COD and back into the cold phases. The ECMWF crawls(and I mean crawls) through the warm phases of the MJO. That might be why we are seeing some differences in modeling. The GEFS has handled things better in the d10-15 range lately. I never completely trust any model, but especially not the GFS/GEFS combo. That said, they have don really well. Here is the MJO link so you can see for yourself... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  8. Carvers Gap
    Pretty amazing to see the LR models flip-flop all over the place right now. It is not unusual for sure, but pretty much every day now in the d9-15 range - massive changes in the NA circulation pattern. The EPO ridge is so tall on the 6z GEFS that it tucks a trough underneath it. Saw that most of last winter. So, we definitely want an EPO ridge..but not on steroids where the trough can tuck under it. The -NAO helps on the GEFS. On the EPS, the ridge is far enough West that the cold dumps West. It has a weaker -NAO. I am just wary right now. Last year, many models were almost universally cold in their depiction through mid-December. After that early snowstorm in NE TN, the models flipped to a big EPO ridge with a trough tucked under it. In the middle of all of that was a big SSW event. I think until that event happens, modeling cannot be trusted during and beyond that event(minor or major). Also, can't tel much until that -NAO establishes. Once in place, very stubborn to move and models will almost always break it down too quickly.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Kind of a fun weather day on ensembles. Lots of positives to talk about(like that?). We will see if the trend continues tomorrow. As someone said in the MA forum, I am a tad bit wary after seeing such great modeling last year...only to have the rug pulled out at the last minute. Very strong block being portrayed for early December. Here's to 0z not flip-flopping back to a less favorable pattern. Today's looks were pretty awesome.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Just put in an order for gopher wood to Amazon.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And there is Boone's full latitude trough...right on time.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS as well as 6z GFS are advertising an Arctic origin air mass late in both runs. 12z is still running. That is frigid. Some -30+ stuff streaming across the pole from Siberia.
  13. Carvers Gap
    DB...you had some good thoughts in the main ENSO thread. I have considered the full latitude trough option for the U.S.....It was good to hear someone else say it. The ridge in the eastern Pac and the -NAO would argue for that pattern I think. Again, really good thoughts.
  14. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, time to jump into the fray. What ya got?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Some nice trends on modeling overnight...Both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS seemed to take steps in the right direction, mainly both found the -NAO that had been a prominent feature until the past few runs. Let's see if they hold at 12z. Again, have to think this SSW(minor or major...no idea) is causing issues understandably.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Lastly, the potential SSW is going to be fun to follow while we hit this pattern that doesn’t support snow. Usually we don’t have anything follow at this time of year.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I don’t think things are exactly like last year, but there are some strong similarities. Things that aren’t the same are the QBO trajectory, the SOI is in sync now(remember last year it was a Niña phase during a Nino), and it’s not last year. But there are definite similarities. In truth, just no idea where this goes after the SSW. I could make a pretty good case that the strat warm likely caused the eastern winter to be warm last year when the cold dumped west. Does lightning strike twice in the same cold spot? Probably not. My hope is that we pull an 09-10 rabbit out of the hat.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Don’t disagree. Like I said, if this SSW is legit...nothing is realiable until it works itself out. Now, Weeklies can give us hints...but it’s warm bias makes it unreliable right now. In this case, absent and SSW, it does make sense to have a warm December given climatology. However, if we have a cold December...you can thank me for the reverse mojo. LOL.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I'll say it. This pattern looks remarkably similar to 1954...and last year. November cold...talk of an SSW...warm December now in the works. The only difference right now is the Euro Weeklies are not showing a cold winter - pretty much a torch after week 3, but when have they not? Weeklies do not show a cold pattern and pretty much dump the cold in the northern Rockies. Looks like(once we reach late November) that the pattern will indeed revert to the base pattern from the last twelve months for at least a little while and maybe longer. The storm track and cold air placement are remarkably similar as well. I say bring on the SSW...We are going to need something to shake-up the pattern. Lastly, with the potential for an SSW...pretty much all bets are off. That is especially good if one believes the Euro Weeklies which I am not sure that I do. Glad we got some early season snow and cold...going to be a while before we see much more IMHO. Thinking late December or even January before we get into a better cycle. Pretty stark change in modeling over the past 48 hours. Again, the one possible good thing is the strat warming event. That is going to wreck any LR model run until it gets that right.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Was a ton of discussion about this yesterday. The 12z GFS today shows significant warming at high latitudes and in the stratosphere of that area. Not saying an SSW is imminent, but the foundation is being laid at least for a pretty significant disruption. Waaay out there, but look what the 12z GFS is doing. These are the 10mb temp anomalies. I normally would never post at this range, but the GFS/GEFS combo nailed the strat split(from 16 days out!) during the spring of 2018 and did pretty well last winter with this type of event. The Euro is showing signs warming late in its run. Also Typhoon Tip in the NE forum commented that this is a pretty sudden change in modeling and needs to be paid attention to...I concur. Here is a screenshot....fairly exciting stuff.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Preliminary thoughts on December. AN(maybe one torch week in weeks 2-3) weeks 1-3...transition of seasonal or cold by week 4. SSW and -NAO(how long does it last) are big wild cards.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS continues to portray the western trough establishing itself early next week. Not sure I buy that yet....but it is growing more consistent with this feature. Pretty steady evolution of a flip of its original output over the past 5-6 model runs. IMHO, I think the current cold pattern has just about run its course. Only way we can dodge a big warm-up is if the NAO can go negative and mute what is an MJO that is trending into a tour of the warm phases(maybe at a decent amplitude at that). The other wild card is the SSW. This very well maybe a run-up pattern to that as described in my post yesterday. If that occurs, later December/early January would likely have some strong cold anomalies somewhere over NA...good luck guessing where! Not great signs for December at this point, especially with the GEFS moving the pattern flip to within seven days.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro continues to show fairly strong warming at 10mb at high latitudes. Have to think that is playing some part in the flip-flopping of modeling. It has in the past. Also means the PV is really gonna get bumped around.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Some definite trends(all though not super consistent at this point...about 2/3 of the time) in placing the trough out West on most global modeling ensembles at 0z. Those trends on modeling began last week. I don't think they are set in stone yet, but frequency of AN heights(in the East) on modeling in the LR is increasing. On the 0z GEFS the Aleutian low begins to disappear though the block over Greenland is there. I do hold out hope for a full latitude trough over NA. But honestly, looks like models are trying to decide if the trough stays in the West...or rolls eastward. Seems like the lean is West. Tough to find many Decembers that are cool with this SST set-up. So, if it does get cold in December and stay cold...pulling a bit of a needle out of a haystack.
  25. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS has returned to form. Pretty chilly run.
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