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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Ditto. Yeah, take a look at the Canadian at 500 after d5. PNA on steroids. If that verifies, going to be tough for anything to cut after the first storm, and it may not either.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just did my leaves last night. 25mph winds on tap later today and tonight....crap.
  3. Carvers Gap
    6z GEFS snow mean (which has admittedly been a metric which has been absolutely worthless during the past two winters) has 4-6" of snow over E TN. The EPS is 2-3" with more in the mountains...and an elevation dependent look. I like to use NE TN as a benchmark, because it is easier to see if the storms are elevation dependent - and it is close. One interesting note in the LR, both the GEPS and GEFS have moved to a cleaner ridge out West which is more of a -EPO(GEPS is both PNA and EPO ridge)...but the interesting thing is they pull the trough back. The EPS pretty much holds the upcoming pattern in place. My thinking(and it could be wrong) is that if we can get the EPO ridge after the PNA(due to retrograding), that we might be able to squeeze another week or two out of the pattern. If the GFS and GEPS verity later in the run, that is a very stable look and not as wonky as the upcoming first two weeks of winter. JB has noted that he thinks the pattern flips to an eastern ridge prior to Christmas due to the MJO...well, plus that fits their seasonal forecast. The Weeklies on Monday did sort of fit that idea, but they IMHO really didn't lock that eastern ridge into place. Right now, I think LR forecasting is not for the faint of heart as this early Dec pattern resembles more of an El Nino(trough in the SE) than a Nina. I do think because we are getting this early chance, that opens the door for 1-2 more windows later this winter...but who knows.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I should sat at met85 mentioned, the system early next week is a money set-up for upslope areas.
  5. Carvers Gap
    6z GEFS is a Miller B with energy transfer east of the mountains after it cuts. 0z EPS is more of an Apps runner with equal members on each side. Still a ways to go. As others have noted the energy behind that first system is very interesting. BOTH the Euro and GEM operationals bring it up the Piedmont as a Miller A. Still a lot of options on the table. NE TN could score with the first storm even if the storm cuts as the storm has both upslope and wrap around....but it sort of has to be the same Miller B that DC scores with - meaning the energy transfers earlier. The 6z GFS operational actually develops a lee side low, and that is one scenario for E TN. Middle and western portions of the forum area have a real chance with system one. TRI picks up 2-3" of snow with each system on the operational Euro. It is a bit surreal to be tracking anything when one thinks of where modeling was (excluding the GEM) early last week. LOL..
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS is basically several waves running a boundary after the initial storm. E TN saw a fairly strong uptick in the snow mean compared to 12z, especially NE TN and SW VA. Where is @BlunderStorm?
  7. Carvers Gap
    If the Euro is a bit over-amped.....look out.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The Euro after d10 has them lined-up across the Pacific cutting and likely cutting right under that PNA ridge which gets hooked into a block over Greenland. If that d7-10 is even remotely close to being correct, then cold air from the Arctice would be released southward. The blocking on the Euro after 200 is insane. Again, that has been a huge red flag that the run was going to fail(in the past). Thing is, that look is all of the way to 200 now. For kicks and giggles look at the 500 map from the North Pole view...and just watch that block evolve.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The system early next week is probably going to have to be watched. Euro is amped more and it cuts through TN. GFS is more progressive, and jogs eastward. CMC sort of splits the difference. The pattern from d7-15 has several pieces of energy with blocking over the top. Just need to reel in one of these(and there are multiple systems) during the next couple of weeks. Would appear that major changes(to our current pattern) are potentially on the way. Great overnight discussion.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Beginning around 210...now the 0z GFS has an inland runner Miller A. Big run. Long way to go.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Autocorrect is absolutely shredding my posts today. I have to get bifocals strengthened in my glasses - actually went for an eye appointment today. So, when it autocorrects...it sort of looks right when I am on my phone. Went back and read some posts this evening on my computer(bigger print). Looked like some of the older posts were written in Old English.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Needless to say, very little ensemble support for that. 2/30 members have it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    You are right. It had a cutoff in the West for days. Has had at least a couple of cutoffs over TN. With that big area of blocking over the top, it appears steering winds are minimal. Almost like a tropical storm under a big ridge. The end of the 18z GFS run had like 3 lined-up. Crazy looking stuff. And agree. Makes me think we may see a very slow mover at some point....could be rain or wintery. Not a cutoff, but just a series of systems which move very slowly. Might even be a realistic flooding threat if not snow.
  14. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS mega cut-off accumulations...like four days of snow.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I have to get with the plan. The 12z GFS run had a similar cutoff as well. Do I think that happens? Likely not as other models don't have that. But with that blocking over the top in Canada, it is a good lesson on how storms cannot climb(add latitude) with AN heights over the top. Almost like bowling ball season... Might be some slow movers as steering current are lacking. edit: accumulation map is in banter since we are looking at a storm from 210-300.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Somebody gif that run. Might not see a model run like that in the history of modeling. That cutoff forms around 210 SE of Memphis and precip doesn't leave SW VA completely until 312. Pure wildness. Snow totals from that run should be pretty high.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I am all for a winter storm cutting off over our forum area!!! LOL. Long way out there, but worth a look if just for pure enjoyment.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I can see by the number of people watching this thread that they must have seen the 18z GFS. LOL. Fun run.
  19. Carvers Gap
    0z EPS moved the lower 500 heights back eastward on this run. While no ensemble has a perfect set-up, they do provide a great example of a pattern which was originally a trough in the East, then a ridge, and now a BN heights in the SE. As John noted, the Canadian is very cold. I think it gets this solution by driving a strong storm west of the area. The GFS seems to lack some organization at 6z. Seems like the Euro is similar to the GFS. I could honestly see either outcome as a reality. It does look like the Monday to Wednesday after Thanksgiving are going to have the potential to be much colder than we have been experienced of late. Again, I kind of like the GEPS right now as it caught the changes about 48 hours earlier than other global ensembles. That said, they all look pretty similar now. I will say, I am not a huge fan of the present, but temporary -NAO. Again, in the past that has been a harbinger of a head fake. In this case it may just be one which is forged by the heights over the East being forced to higher latitudes. The one signal that appears to be legit is a suppressed storm track and a stormy EC(not necessarily snow...). edit: Post has been checked for typos. I was in a hurry earlier, and some of that made zero sense. Should be fixed now.
  20. Carvers Gap
    It looks like we are going to get some sort of banana high over the top. Probably a little early for that to work outside of the mountains as Jeff notes. That said, the cold source is a big mystery. Is there a decent source or not. I tend to lean on the Candadian right now as it has done a really good job with this change in modeling....that said, I think it is likely too cold. Has the GEFS been upgraded? I know the operational was upgraded and the ensemble was to follow. It it has been upgraded since last winter, it may have some new winter biases.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks good verbatim, control looks even better. That said, we need to be wary of the trough slipping every so slightly westward as a trend during this run. The past two cold shots out West were depicted in the East, but came west with time. Not saying that is going to happen...but the -NAO is starting to show up, and that makes me very wary. Good looking 12z suite....let's see if we can get something good to verify finally.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro operational also is quite cold after day 8. Almost hate even talking about cold after the last head fakes, but it is there on modeling. So worth a mention to quote a friend.
  23. Carvers Gap
    CMC was an extreme run for sure. The GFS at 12z also amplifies but later in the run. We have been here before....could easily be a head fake as the CMC operational develops a massive block(and I mean massive) over the top. Those types of runs have tended to not materialize. So proceed with caution. That said...have to think that stable vortex would be jostled severely if anything even close to those two operationals occurred.
  24. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC is sharply colder with middle teens(for lows) in E TN during its d8-10 run and single digits in the western forum areas. It also has snow showers deep in Dixie as well. If Holston's powerhouse storm develops, going to feel sharply colder after the nice temps of the past weeks.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the pattern after d5... Looking briefly at teleconnections this morning, looks like the initial ridge out West will be +PNA driven with the potential for it to shift to an -EPO rigdge after that. The one think I am wary of is that modeling during the fall advertised big cool downs in the East and verified out West. A silver lining is that they did "see" the NA shake-up. This has a different look than those false alarms. Those involved really cold anomalous air masses and (as noted prior), they often had a very erroneous -NAO. Now, a -NAO is showing up on ensembles right now but thankfully it is no overly strong AND the pattern appears to be driven by ridging out West and not changes over Greenland. In fact, the changes over Greenland are a result of the ridge popping out West and changing down stream wavelengths. One constant is that the Aleutian's low is back on modeling. Last winter, massive ridging in that area resulted in winter ending in the East...it just never left it felt like. Something to watch for, and it is important, is weather we can get cold air transported into NA with the Alaskan BN heights leaving that area. Overall, the pattern to begin December looks quite stormy. The last two days of the Euro operational are quite cold(winter type cold). If we can get 10-15 days of winter in December followed by a thaw...might be able to fit-in one more cold shot after that - but that is getting ahead of myself. On a side note, this is kind of opposite the last two years as John has noted. When we hit Thanksgiving during those years, we could see modeling beginning to show the storms which would end the November cold. This time, we may be tracking the onset of cold weather(unspecified length). I do want to be super clear that I am very unsure of the duration of this potential western ridge. During the past two winters, they have not stuck around for long. We will see if that changes. The warmth in the NE PAC might work to offset the La Nina - we hope.
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