Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,656

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    You are right. It had a cutoff in the West for days. Has had at least a couple of cutoffs over TN. With that big area of blocking over the top, it appears steering winds are minimal. Almost like a tropical storm under a big ridge. The end of the 18z GFS run had like 3 lined-up. Crazy looking stuff. And agree. Makes me think we may see a very slow mover at some point....could be rain or wintery. Not a cutoff, but just a series of systems which move very slowly. Might even be a realistic flooding threat if not snow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS mega cut-off accumulations...like four days of snow.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I have to get with the plan. The 12z GFS run had a similar cutoff as well. Do I think that happens? Likely not as other models don't have that. But with that blocking over the top in Canada, it is a good lesson on how storms cannot climb(add latitude) with AN heights over the top. Almost like bowling ball season... Might be some slow movers as steering current are lacking. edit: accumulation map is in banter since we are looking at a storm from 210-300.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Somebody gif that run. Might not see a model run like that in the history of modeling. That cutoff forms around 210 SE of Memphis and precip doesn't leave SW VA completely until 312. Pure wildness. Snow totals from that run should be pretty high.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I am all for a winter storm cutting off over our forum area!!! LOL. Long way out there, but worth a look if just for pure enjoyment.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I can see by the number of people watching this thread that they must have seen the 18z GFS. LOL. Fun run.
  7. Carvers Gap
    0z EPS moved the lower 500 heights back eastward on this run. While no ensemble has a perfect set-up, they do provide a great example of a pattern which was originally a trough in the East, then a ridge, and now a BN heights in the SE. As John noted, the Canadian is very cold. I think it gets this solution by driving a strong storm west of the area. The GFS seems to lack some organization at 6z. Seems like the Euro is similar to the GFS. I could honestly see either outcome as a reality. It does look like the Monday to Wednesday after Thanksgiving are going to have the potential to be much colder than we have been experienced of late. Again, I kind of like the GEPS right now as it caught the changes about 48 hours earlier than other global ensembles. That said, they all look pretty similar now. I will say, I am not a huge fan of the present, but temporary -NAO. Again, in the past that has been a harbinger of a head fake. In this case it may just be one which is forged by the heights over the East being forced to higher latitudes. The one signal that appears to be legit is a suppressed storm track and a stormy EC(not necessarily snow...). edit: Post has been checked for typos. I was in a hurry earlier, and some of that made zero sense. Should be fixed now.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It looks like we are going to get some sort of banana high over the top. Probably a little early for that to work outside of the mountains as Jeff notes. That said, the cold source is a big mystery. Is there a decent source or not. I tend to lean on the Candadian right now as it has done a really good job with this change in modeling....that said, I think it is likely too cold. Has the GEFS been upgraded? I know the operational was upgraded and the ensemble was to follow. It it has been upgraded since last winter, it may have some new winter biases.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks good verbatim, control looks even better. That said, we need to be wary of the trough slipping every so slightly westward as a trend during this run. The past two cold shots out West were depicted in the East, but came west with time. Not saying that is going to happen...but the -NAO is starting to show up, and that makes me very wary. Good looking 12z suite....let's see if we can get something good to verify finally.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro operational also is quite cold after day 8. Almost hate even talking about cold after the last head fakes, but it is there on modeling. So worth a mention to quote a friend.
  11. Carvers Gap
    CMC was an extreme run for sure. The GFS at 12z also amplifies but later in the run. We have been here before....could easily be a head fake as the CMC operational develops a massive block(and I mean massive) over the top. Those types of runs have tended to not materialize. So proceed with caution. That said...have to think that stable vortex would be jostled severely if anything even close to those two operationals occurred.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC is sharply colder with middle teens(for lows) in E TN during its d8-10 run and single digits in the western forum areas. It also has snow showers deep in Dixie as well. If Holston's powerhouse storm develops, going to feel sharply colder after the nice temps of the past weeks.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the pattern after d5... Looking briefly at teleconnections this morning, looks like the initial ridge out West will be +PNA driven with the potential for it to shift to an -EPO rigdge after that. The one think I am wary of is that modeling during the fall advertised big cool downs in the East and verified out West. A silver lining is that they did "see" the NA shake-up. This has a different look than those false alarms. Those involved really cold anomalous air masses and (as noted prior), they often had a very erroneous -NAO. Now, a -NAO is showing up on ensembles right now but thankfully it is no overly strong AND the pattern appears to be driven by ridging out West and not changes over Greenland. In fact, the changes over Greenland are a result of the ridge popping out West and changing down stream wavelengths. One constant is that the Aleutian's low is back on modeling. Last winter, massive ridging in that area resulted in winter ending in the East...it just never left it felt like. Something to watch for, and it is important, is weather we can get cold air transported into NA with the Alaskan BN heights leaving that area. Overall, the pattern to begin December looks quite stormy. The last two days of the Euro operational are quite cold(winter type cold). If we can get 10-15 days of winter in December followed by a thaw...might be able to fit-in one more cold shot after that - but that is getting ahead of myself. On a side note, this is kind of opposite the last two years as John has noted. When we hit Thanksgiving during those years, we could see modeling beginning to show the storms which would end the November cold. This time, we may be tracking the onset of cold weather(unspecified length). I do want to be super clear that I am very unsure of the duration of this potential western ridge. During the past two winters, they have not stuck around for long. We will see if that changes. The warmth in the NE PAC might work to offset the La Nina - we hope.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is on the boat now with the 18z GEFS and 12z GEPS. Beginning around 156, trough slides into the SE and holds. Fingers crossed, we are not tracking a d10+ change now. The post Thanksgiving trough is the beginning of however long this lasts - I refuse to say pattern change any more. LOL.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS has that red herring -NAO at the end of its run. But yeah, the GEFS and GEPS have trended nicely for the SE. Cold source is lacking but the GFS at 6z shows repeated storms with just enough cold air. Almost all cut just enough West to put E TN out of the game, but long way to go. The Canadian has been leading the way on this. Their operational got an upgrade I think last winter. Did the ensemble? Again, we sit in a very similar position to last winter...two respected ensembles showing change. The EPS is almost there. At some point we have to reel in a winter pattern, right? Great discussion above. Was nice to get up and read it.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Probably time for a December thread OR just a winter thread (part I) as the LR discussions are taking us there now. Who feels like they have the mojo? You could be a legend if it is good.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Couple of interesting Tweets From Webber... In the category of every year is its own analog:
  18. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll not only can I work my way around Wx maps and their many uses, but I have been honing my skills in Google Classroom, Canvas, Kahoot, ClassLink, and Aspen. 12z EPS now rolling. Let's see if the positive trends continue.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I am completely throwing all rules aside today as it is Friday, and virtual school for the day is over(we are on hybrid...today is the virtual part of that formula for us). If you have been doing virtual school with your kids, you will completely understand the need to enjoy the d10 Euro operational. I love my kids, but man...it is work. Anyway, as I wonder around to make my point....upslope snow potential at the end of that run. I don't care if it is there at midnight, but going to enjoy it now. No final drafts, no music submission stuff, no modules to complete...just LR weather. On a lighter note, we all realize that these great virtual platforms are about to turn our snow days into just more virtual learning.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS after 300, I will take it. Yeah, I know it is frowned upon to talk 300+ stuff for obvious reasons, especially with an operational run. But going to enjoy that for six more hours.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Seeing continued changes in modeling today, especially ensembles. The Canadian operational and ensemble are most aggressive. Why do I mention the Canadian model? It "seemed" to be the first model to catch some changes that are now showing-up on other ensembles. Honestly, there are more changes than I have time to describe. If it continues at lunch, I will try to spend some more time discussing those changes. At this point the Euro Weeklies yesterday are almost on an island. Often we will see a great weeklies run, and then get abandoned by the 12z run - opposite for once. Note on Holston's animations above that one of the really big changes is in Alaska. IF that area of cold vacates that areas, that allows for an EPO ridge to build or maybe the EPO ridge just pushes it out of the way. I don't think this is a precursor to months of cold weather. What is being shown is typical Nina pattern stuff...cold start and very warm after that. Let's hope it verifies. I suspect this window(likely will be quite narrow from a time standpoint), might be our shot at winter. No idea if any of this holds. Been plenty of head fakes. Maybe one thing that gives me a bit more encouragement this time is that we aren't seeing a -NAO sig which initiates all of this. The -NAO has rarely verified. This time it is the western ridge that holds, and that is more realistic IMHO. Again, to be clear, going to need more cold air than what is being shown. Also, highly doubt the changes are over in modeling.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Definitely need wavelengths to shorten up. The EPS control seemed a bit better in that respect off the top of my head.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS quite a bit different than the Weeklies and their derived 0z run. Ensembles are blouncing around a bit where they had been locked. I do agree I don’t see a ton of cold delivery. That said, a well placed storm with the 12z EPS look(especially the control) might work.
  24. Carvers Gap
    To me that run of the 12 GFS is feeding back on that cutoff - for like six days! When have I said that before? LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC will work. Man, feels like deja vu all over again watching the GEFS close off a low in the southwest with a MONSTER ridge over the top. One would think the CMC with the more progressive look is more likely right. Those runs really look like they could pop a -EPO.
×
×
  • Create New...