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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Fun deal that the 12z RGEM does(also think I noticed it on the NAM), is that there is a fairly powerful secondary low that pops around Delmarva and feeds back into the system which prolongs the snow over the Ohio Valley. Starting to see the "stalled" solutions come back vs the recent solutions which seemed quicker to get out of the way.
  2. Carvers Gap
    0z RGEM is similar to 18z but maybe a hair north of the run six hours ago. Entry might be a bit sharper as well. Will wait until the globals begin to run before commenting further. If not, the nightshift can have at it...always enjoy reading their info in the morning.
  3. Carvers Gap
    WRF-ARW is also just coming into range. It is way down there.
  4. Carvers Gap
    3k NAM tracke directly over the Apps - nearly perfectly along the spine. The NAM is just coming into range. My guess would be that it jogs a tad more eastward as it also has a tendency to be overly amped - but it should be leaving that bias quite soon as we get closer to the event.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Bham, yeah might be good, especially Monday night. The 0z 3K NAM is a mb or two deeper. Can see some mixing in west TN at about 56.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Unless it bounces north during the next couple of slides...the 3k NAM looks like it took a jog southward. Tough to tell if it is just slower or south or both.
  7. Carvers Gap
    0z 32k NAM is rolling. Bit south of 18z and maybe a bit slower.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Again, going to be an interesting test for the Euro as it is has steadfastly been on the western edge of modeling. And models like the GFS and CMC operational models have moved to it.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The shape of the storm(if one didn't see the pressure) is not all that different. The 12z GEM doesn't really do an energy handoff like the Euro. It goes into western NC and dry slots the Smokies. That puts the comma head and earlier change over for middle and parts of west TN. I would guess the Euro is probably right as it fits right with the RGEM. The GEM, the NAVGEM and the JMA are still consolidated east...and probably not a model group I would share a foxhole with, but just interesting to note.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The phase at 18z is just earlier as more energy is in the northwest quadrant of a disorganized low pulling out of Louisiana. It doesn't take much to get an earlier phase, and it doesn't take much to get a later phase(meaning spine of the Apps track). Going to depend on the exact location of the greatest amount of energy is that comes northward out of the GOM. I still think the Euro is a little over-amped, but man, it is not budging a bit.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, I don't think this is completely set in stone yet. The Euro is still trying to attempt energy handoff eastward @ 63 either into the eastern valley or western NC. Probably won't change its solution much, but it is really interesting to follow. Also, the 18z run was a lot stronger in terms acscums in Indiana and Ohio in comparison to 12z - meaning stronger system. Probably a bit of a western jog...but seems the slp center bounces around with each run. Again, if the slp gets clear of the Apps (either east or west), likely going to be much stronger. Looking very much like a westward track, and that is a good example of what happens when it gets clear of the Smokies. The operational actually has a piece of the low on the east side of the Apps. I think pretty much everyone needs to be pulling for this to get stronger. Even if the eastern valley gets dry slotted, the wrap-around could be pretty intense for NW facing slopes as it pulls northward.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Surprised nobody has mentioned the 12z GEM snow map for storm one....The GEM and its ensemble are not terrible in terms of snow or track. Maybe grasping at straws, but saw the JMA is still holding to a Piedmont track, so I tried to dig around to see if it had support, and found the GEM with still a strong solution for middle TN. I think the EURO is too far west. This will be a good test to see if it has a bias towards being too wrapped up. The 18z GFS still has a few members on the other side of the mountain. Sure, it is a long shot...but was surprised to see some models still holding out. With this being a powerful storm and also with a phase...still keeping one eye open.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, not a bad looking pattern for sure. Really hope we keep that block over HB and/or Greenland. Might be able to use that to bridge to the next trough amplification during January. I would be tickled to have a back-and-forth pattern vs just getting locked into a crap pattern like last winter.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The storm is on the 12z EPS around 180 @ 500....would be later next week.
  15. Carvers Gap
    So maybe the "big" story from the 12z suite is that both the GFS and Euro have Miller As for the second storm. Cold is marginal. Need the storm to be strong without pulling westward. Good start.
  16. Carvers Gap
    At 192, the storm wraps-up. Looks like a good deal for the Plateau at the very least.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Little disorganized by MUCH different solution than 0z. Looks like a mix of slider and Miller A....out to 180 and that looks like a Miller A/inland runner. Perfect track and cold is lacking.
  18. Carvers Gap
    SLP sitting over eastern Louisiana at 162.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Second storm on the 12z Euro is not going be that westerly cutter.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Was interesting to see the 12z GFS shift to a Miller A for the second system.
  21. Carvers Gap
    If there is one potential bias I am noticing(it seems across the board on all operational modeling), is the tendency to over amplify in the d5-7 time frame - even stalling systems for long periods of time.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Long Range Update(at least from my perspective, and as Jeff would say, certainly open for debate!).... In the LR, this morning's 0z EPS has moved a trough into EPO/PNA region after d12. Trough is still in the East as well, but looks like a retrograde to a ridge is underway. Interesting feature is a -NAO in conjunction with the western trough. That would actually work, and would create nation wide cold driven by cold invasion the West and spreading eastward. The problem is that -NAOs on modeling have rarely verified, and even if they do, just for a fraction of the time and strength originally modeled during recent winters. Euro Weeklies update (from last evening) has a similar solution though this morning's 0z run is certainly more aggressive and quicker in establishing the western trough. Interesting thing to watch will be the weak AN heights over the Davis Straits which are persistent after Dec 20 and after the -NAO from Dec 10-20. Looks like there will be temporary intrusions of cold after the 20th with the base pattern for winter beginning to take hold which is a trough in the Northwest. Will it happen? Not sure. The Euro Weeklies sure missed(like totally whiffed) on this upcoming trough amplification as recently as two weeks ago. Also of note, the last 4 runs have certainly evolved into a "less hostile" look over the East after Dec 20th.. Could it be that we finally get a -NAO during winter which will mute the upcoming warm phases of the MJO? Don't bet on it...but given how winter has started with a big surprise, I wouldn't bet against it either. On the subject of the Euro, today's run of the MJO on the NCEP site loops the MJO in the null phase and certainly looks poised to head into the warm phase tour. I would say right now that given the complete whiff by the Weeklies on the early December pattern, take it with a bit of a grain of salt. Also important to remember that the Weeklies do have a tendency to settle down and become a bit more accurate(as accurate as a 4-7 week model can be) as the winter season settles in. Of note the GEFS Extended Ensemble locks in an eastern ridge beginning around Dec. 19th and never looks back through the end of its run which is Dec 31. So, the Weeklies do have some support though LR modeling (of the variety past 3 weeks) do have a warm bias at times. Of note the 6z GEFS nor the 0z GEPS most recent runs do not have the 0z EPS look. Both still have an eastern trough. Have to think the GEFS will flip soon as its MJO from yesterday took the warm tour. An important note is that the MJO is a bit weaker than last year west of the dateline. I definitely give some increased cred to the Canadian ensemble as it has just schooled the GEFS and EPS on the upcoming pattern. No idea what the global verification scores will look like, but it appears to have nailed the short term upcoming pattern over the SE prior to other models. The GEPS has been decent of late and will hold more weight than normal for now in my book. Lastly, when I see a big mid-Atlantic ridge which sort of retrogrades into a WAR(western Atlantic ridge), makes me think that the SPV(polar vortex at 10mb) is going to get hammered. There is plenty of chatter about a SSW on Twitter for sure, and has been for a few days. However, the aforementioned ridges are also a great hint other than the Twittersphere. That might be why a -NAO is beginning to show up as the SPV is getting jostled around. I do think we need to be wary as the last two winters have featured lots of failed or less than advantageous PV splits and false -NAOs(after much wx model advertising). However, the start to winter for early Dec appears to feature an abrupt change in modeling (to cold) and would not surprise me to see that happen 1-2 more times for 10 day time frames. Also, important to remember that early winter is a very tough time to score IMBY. As some have noted though, that has been the trend of late - early season snows in various micro-climates (meaning not widespread) followed by meh winters. Still, the problem is that often cold is still marginal at this latitude in early December. Hopefully, we can get some snow showers in E TN with the first system this week and maybe middle and/or west TN can grab some low elevation snow as well. The 6z off run of the Euro certainly implied that. Next system is all over the place on modeling...so will have to watch that one closely.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Great write-up by MRX. Really applies to the entire forum area in many ways... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
  24. Carvers Gap
    In a lot of ways, these remind me of the slp bowling balls which we see during spring. Those tend to hold surprises and wonder around like a drunken sailor - terribly tough to predict. Just look at the second storm on the Euro as an example.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Trends I noticed...Euro operational looks the same. GFS and GEM are still east of the Apps and not moving much either (though their ensembles moved west...but still east of the Apps). I think the storm is getting shredded by the solutions which go directly up the Apps - similar to a hurricane hitting Cuba or the DR. The phase on this is really tricky. I think a phased system is likely. Do I think modeling has that phase molded correctly yet? Nope, but they are getting a bit better. It does look like accumulations are moving north and east with each run. If you are E TN, you want to see the storm go east of the Apps and then spin up(seems like this storm may not enough separation between us and the storm track at this juncture). If you live in middle or west TN, the entire consolidated storm needs to be strong and west of the Apps. Right now, the storm is splitting the difference between the two and getting washed out. As for overall trends, I tend to lean towards a track which sends some energy up west of the Apps but the primary going just east over Asheville. That is not wish casting by me, because that doesn't get the job done IMBY. We will see what happens...I just don't think the models have the phase down quite yet.
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