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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    @jaxjagman, can you see the day 8-10 10mb/30mb/50mb temps on your site? Those layers look pretty warm to me. What do you think?
  2. Carvers Gap
    Good graph there... would be interesting to see where it is in a couple of weeks. The 12z Euro and GFS have some pretty strong warming between days 8-10 at 10mb, 30mb, and 50mb. If the Euro/GFS combo is right, PV is going to take a decent beating - no idea if it results in a PV split. Also, with the MJO flirting with phases 3-5, that does correlate to a pretty good jostling of the PV at all levels of the atmosphere. Going to be fairly interesting. I prefer for the PV to be weak...those SSWs are not always money. That said, looks like some things are being set into motion which will rough it up pretty good.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Good find. I hadn't read anything in detail, but I saw that it was mentioned. If you get a time, let me know. Hopefully, they will leave the video up. Even better, maybe she will give us some current SSW snippets.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Pretty impressive cold to begin November at TRI. We are -7.2F through November 16th. Not a single day AN so far. That will change, but still impressive.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Amy Butler is my go to for SSW events(thanks to Jax for sharing about her expertise a while back). She had this to say last Thursday. Pretty interesting to see that big ridge along the EC at 500 sending a bunch of warm air northward in conjunction with potential polar vortex disturbance at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Probably going to be some tropospheric disturbance at the least.
  6. Carvers Gap
    So I went back and looked at the run-up to last year's PV split which occurred in early January I think. I also looked at the time around the Feb 2018 split. Here is the 500mb map from December 28, 2018. This occurred right before the SSW last winter and is referenced in the referenced post above. It is not in that post. I have had to clear my memory cache since then. But here is the actual reanalysis of that date.... Here is the 500mb pattern about a week after the SSW which occurred in mid-Feb of 2018.... Here is the GEFS at 258.... Here is the 12z EPS at 258 I wanted to show above that sometimes these big ridges that hook into Greenland block at 500mb seem to show up just before or just after a significant disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex higher-up in the atmosphere. Their duration is relatively short in natured(edit). I have been saving this in the back of my mind. We in the forum have kicked this around some, I think Jeff included. The big ridge along the EC has occurred just before or just after the last two strat splits. It tends to feed a ton of warm air at lower-mid levels of the atmosphere into the higher latitudes. Also, not sure I am a huge fan of the SSW. It doesn't always equate to cold here. This is just wx talk and not really so much about if it is going to get cold here...though the EPS would indicate as such. So, let's see if the PV doesn't get bumped around pretty good here in 10-20 days. (BTW...the 12z EPS is still a textbook -NAO evolution into an eastern trough. The EPS dumps that trough into the East and flattens it a bit into a nice, stormy pattern typical of a Greenland block.)
  7. Carvers Gap
    And here is last year's discussion...I will see if I can go find the pic in my files. When the SER or WAR hooks into a forming Greenland block..the PV (at the tropospheric and stratospheric level) has been split just after or during this event. So, let's see if this actually happens again. If it does, it would make three times this pattern of a mega-ridge(WAR/Greenland Block) presented itself and three times an SSW was occurring or about to occur.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Knew I had filed that away for a reason...plenty of discussion about the SER hooking up with the Greenland block around the time of an SSW in mid February of 2018.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Seeing some consternation on other sub-forums about the ridge around d10 that rolls through on the GEFS. That is definitely a break in continuity. Given the amount of change in the higher latitudes, not unsurprising. We have seen this pop up on run in the past on several runs - I was complaining about this look last week as a matter of fact. And this is my observation....this 500 setup has proceeded strat splits in the past. Yeah, it is not the stratosphere...but when the WAR hooks into a Greenland block better look out. All kinds of craziness bout to get unlocked if that holds into place for very long. That is a crap ton of heat getting unleashed into a block. Like winding up a top and then letting it loose. Maybe we should call that a Tasmanian Devil Ridge(TDR), cause what happens next is going to be significant (in terms of cold) and nearly random in terms of where it goes. I am going to go back and see if I can find a post on that WAR/Greenland Block ridge.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Still some pretty textbook NAO looks on both the GEFS and EPS. Ridge rolls through the East quickly and the trough deepens behind it. The block may actually mute warm MJO phases and also mute what would have been a very warm pattern as our source regions for cold are pretty much on empty - cold is in Asia. Hopefully the block lasts long enough for the MJO to rotate into colder phases. I think if this happens, colder air finds its way over the pole and into the East. Interesting LR pattern for sure. The GFS has some solutions yesterday where it appeared systems were beginning to feel the block and were partially suppressed. edit: There are systems in the 6z GFS already being forced south. edit: 0z Euro as well.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Look at the pattern at hour 72 of the 18z GEFS. Now, compare it to the pattern above in the first slide. What appeared to be a problem in modeling is just the first step in the -NAO process.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Fascinating look at the NAO. I encourage to find and read all three tweets about the evolution of a -NAO(500 and surface) and its antecedent pattern. Good stuff. Here is my favorite. Look at the patterns(be sure to read the labels and to click each pic...some have more photos than the Twitter thumbnail) and think about what the ensembles have been trying to work out for the end of the month. Looks very similar to many runs.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Pretty solid move to the GEFS over the past two runs by the EPS. Good to see. Not a frigid pattern, but pretty much seasonal to BN. If November has a good correlation to the winter base pattern...November needs to have cold and blocking.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS is much more in line with the GEFS now in the LR. The run-to-run change corrected much more to a trough in the East for d10-15. That was not a warm run! Really not much more to add...we will see if that holds. Models can and do flip in the LR...but the door is cracked for a cold "open" to December, especially if one believes the 6z GEFS.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Man...if the Weeklies had run from the 0z run....
  16. Carvers Gap
    Don't sweat the small stuff. Temp anomalies on the Euro Weeklies have had a severe warm bias for many months. The bias begins after week 2. They must have monkeyed with the algorithm. The 500 pattern doesn't look to bad to me until mid-late December which is after d28. The Weeklies have been pretty awful past week 3. Also, the Euro run from this morning was pretty awful. The Weeklies are only as good as the run they are derived from.All of that said...I do have a warm December as part of my ideas, so I probably can't complains. I don't think a warm December is a slam dunk though. The GEFS has done a much better job of recognizing cold patterns. It has flipped back cold for the past two runs. The EPS also has erroneously tried to warm the current pattern several times. I don't trust the GEFS, but the EPS has been equally bad if not worse. It seems like some sort of BN heights are going to establish for a short amount of time in the Southwest(a few days...maybe even a week or two). That said, the Euro also has a bias of not being able to get energy out of the SW - like ever. It just sits there. Need to keep an eye on the Greenland Block. If it forms...it won't go as quickly as forecasted IMHO. That said, HM has been banging the drum the Aleutian low is going to be a driver here. I think that has potential to be the most important driver early during winter. Keep in mind that the Weeklies completely missed the November cold pattern...almost a total whiff. The EPS has been playing catch-up for about four weeks. The only danger is that the GEFS is always cold....makes it tough to find the pattern change to warm if it occurs. My money for now is on the GEFS, though I never really discount the Euro - but it has really struggled to see much cold at all in NA.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Actually after reading through the MA forum...the EPS solution might be in doubt at this point. It has been pretty bad during the d10-15 range. The GEFS has had a bit of a hot hand. Need to watch the block over Greenland. If it develops...we might be in good shape. As Boone mentioned, the MJO might be causing some flip-flopping as well due to modeling trying to figure out how to handle the warm phases of the MJO while at the same time having to navigate early high-latitude blocking. Lastly, keep an eye on any weird, super-anomalous ridges over NA - especially the EC. They have been precursors to strat splits. I don't want one of those as they seem to have bad aim with cold air! LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS buries the trough in the southwest. Might be real. Might not. That has been a trend on more than one model. Suffice it to say, the EPS has flipped in its d10-15. It may flip back, but that is a flip to a ridge in the East and a trough in the southwest. It backed up the overnight run, and dug in even more. Is it up to its old tricks? Not sure, but the GEFS has a similar look, just cooler in the SE. Not good trends, but still plenty of time to switch round.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Sorry...wasn't trying to correct you. It wasn't a response to yours, because I hadn't even read your previous post. I think your comments actually fit really well based on where the GEFS was previously. I was just trying to be humorous. My apologies that it read that way...it was just coincidence that my post seemed to correct yours. I often say, "Well, that was not a warm run!" Pretty much in that context. Just hyperbole.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS is not warm...really at any point. As Bob Chill noted in the MA...really want to see this get into December. Great question, DB. Many of the wx models that we use were likely built post 1980. What would a truly blue northern winter look like on modeling? Probably a mess before and during. One area where the AI aspect of modeling has issues is with recognizing pattern changes. People catch those changes in modeling because they will see glitches in the LR modeling. It is what I actually look for. Hiccups can mean nothing or they can mean everything. Right now, the d10-15 ensemble runs are bouncing around in terms of putting the cold into the southwest or east or both. I suspect the high latitude blocking is wrecking havoc on consistency much like a big, cold high coming out of Canada would. Jeff said it earlier...not going to be an easy few months of professional or hobby forecasting.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The pattern reversal that occurred during the second week of October is still strongly in place. Yesterday, it was -19F BN at TRI and is a whopping -7.4F for the month through November 13th. The good thing, as John as noted often, is that there is a decent correlation between November wx patterns and winter wx patterns. We have yet to have a single day above normal at TRI for the month of November. We have had five double digit departure days BN. On November 12, the airport reported one of the of earlier 1" or more snowfalls on record(as John noted, there were some earlier than this week). Going to be interesting for the end of November as the GEFS and EPS definitely moved to end the current pattern. That is not surprising as the current pattern would have run about six weeks by that time. Nino climatology points towards warmer Decembers...so, we are basically trying to find a December that is one of the roughly 33% that are cold with this setup. This is the departure map for the month of November so far. This is the map for the last ten days...
  22. Carvers Gap
    LR modeling working on its best version of the flip flop last night. Will be interesting to see how quickly the -NAO can be knocked down. Traditionally, once in place, it is a fairly stubborn feature. That said, both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS find a way to build a SER in the d10-15 range and place a trough out West. Not a torch by any means...but let's see if the trend continues at 12z.
  23. Carvers Gap
    John, I am always thankful for your records. 2014 missed my back yard. I had to go check the obs thread. LOL. Fortunately I posted there. Missed on Sandy as well. Good find on the 93 obs. That turned out to be a cold winter as you have noted. That is the winter that I always forget was cold. I have been asking folks in this area if they remember getting an inch or more is snow this early...it has been a long time - I think. I was was living at Papermill in Knoxville in ‘93...so I have no idea if Kingsport cashed in. Seems like lately we have been getting more than the airport...For many years, Kingsport was always much lower than the surrounding county, partly due to the river I am sure and partly due to industry. These days we seem to be on par. Now, SW VA where @1234snow lives and @Daniel Boone and @BlunderStorm...that is a money pot up there. Carter’s Valley northward is just gold. I spent the winter of 85 in Carter’s Valley. Twenty something below zero and snow on the ground for months. I can remember sitting in Saturday snowday make-up school watching it snow!!!
  24. Carvers Gap
    Jeff hit the high points of the 12z EPS run. Really nice run in terms of potential for cold.
  25. Carvers Gap
    When I lived in JC off of Indian Ridge(might have mistakenly said Sunset earlier) up on the hill...it was crazy how much snow we would get. That little ridge(as you are going towards the hospital) on the right just after you cross Indian Ridge Rd gets some nice little upslope. It has a blue water tower on top. I think I enjoyed upslope events there about as much as any other event anywhere, because it just kept snowing. We get it here in Kingsport with enhanced flow if the system is to our south and east. I could see the really light bands on Radarscope, so figured someone was seeing something. When those NW flow bands set up perpendicular to the mountains...it is pretty fun. It takes about an hour for us to get to Roan Mountain State Park. I have driven from no snow in Kingsport to a foot there due to an upslope event. I am always on Zillow looking for a good deal up there...never enough spare change sitting around. Plus, everyone in my family would know why I wanted a house there...just to see snow. Fortunately, the rest of my crew loves snow as well!!!
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