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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is way eastward with the slp....phase is just later. There are two lobes of precip with the southern system - one over northern MS and the other sliding along the GOM. When the lobe over norther MS is weaker, the primary low/energy shifts to the GOM. I am guessing that is due to a later phase. Pretty much can see that on all modeling. When the lobe over MS is stronger, system and slp are west which indicates an earlier phase. Finesse stuff.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is rolling now....
  3. Carvers Gap
    Some decent differences in the RGEM in SLP placement and strengthening immediately after hour 40.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Seems like the differences go back to when the storm comes north from Louisiana. Recent solutions get the storm further East before turning. The 12z RGEM pivots the bottom of the total precip shield eastward and the precip shield in Indiana and Illinois westward. Was a bit later with the turn but sharper turn north once it turned. As Holston notes, once the northern stream energy grabs it, it goes almost due northward. It is worth noting that the RGEM shifted eastward in regards to when it arrived in the TN Valley. May well be that the trend is a later phase.
  5. Carvers Gap
    There are actually two lows present at 51z on the 3K NAM for TT (national view). Either energy handoff or a lee side low develops. Not sure the slp placement changes the solution(outside chance it might) much, but really watching this for future reference. I have thought the Euro was over-amped...just wanting to see if that hypothesis is correct for this circumstance.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z WRF-ARW is southeast of its 0z run. Not a ton of difference in track, but if the storm consolidates on either side of the Apps(not as confident as yesterday that happens west of the Apps), this storm may be stronger. Right now, it may well be missing the phase until later - just guessing as I have not seen the vort maps. Just seems like there is less of a mechanism to pull it Northwest which is why some modeling is sliding it further eastward before turning it. Just giving the ARW one last look, it is now basically a Miller A.
  7. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS is now a Miller A. As John notes, the Euro operational is not budging.
  8. Carvers Gap
    0z GEFS now has a just more than half the SLPs east of the Apps with a low now coming through between Mars Hill and Asheville. That is a decent shift in the location of the slp.
  9. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS is most eastward of the last four runs with a slight eastward jog of the slp center since 0z last night. The 0z. GFS now sends a portion of the energy east of the Apps. The 0z run from last night too the center through middle TN. This run is splits the app with the designated low along the spine or just a hair west of it.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Fun deal that the 12z RGEM does(also think I noticed it on the NAM), is that there is a fairly powerful secondary low that pops around Delmarva and feeds back into the system which prolongs the snow over the Ohio Valley. Starting to see the "stalled" solutions come back vs the recent solutions which seemed quicker to get out of the way.
  11. Carvers Gap
    0z RGEM is similar to 18z but maybe a hair north of the run six hours ago. Entry might be a bit sharper as well. Will wait until the globals begin to run before commenting further. If not, the nightshift can have at it...always enjoy reading their info in the morning.
  12. Carvers Gap
    WRF-ARW is also just coming into range. It is way down there.
  13. Carvers Gap
    3k NAM tracke directly over the Apps - nearly perfectly along the spine. The NAM is just coming into range. My guess would be that it jogs a tad more eastward as it also has a tendency to be overly amped - but it should be leaving that bias quite soon as we get closer to the event.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Bham, yeah might be good, especially Monday night. The 0z 3K NAM is a mb or two deeper. Can see some mixing in west TN at about 56.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Unless it bounces north during the next couple of slides...the 3k NAM looks like it took a jog southward. Tough to tell if it is just slower or south or both.
  16. Carvers Gap
    0z 32k NAM is rolling. Bit south of 18z and maybe a bit slower.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Again, going to be an interesting test for the Euro as it is has steadfastly been on the western edge of modeling. And models like the GFS and CMC operational models have moved to it.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The shape of the storm(if one didn't see the pressure) is not all that different. The 12z GEM doesn't really do an energy handoff like the Euro. It goes into western NC and dry slots the Smokies. That puts the comma head and earlier change over for middle and parts of west TN. I would guess the Euro is probably right as it fits right with the RGEM. The GEM, the NAVGEM and the JMA are still consolidated east...and probably not a model group I would share a foxhole with, but just interesting to note.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The phase at 18z is just earlier as more energy is in the northwest quadrant of a disorganized low pulling out of Louisiana. It doesn't take much to get an earlier phase, and it doesn't take much to get a later phase(meaning spine of the Apps track). Going to depend on the exact location of the greatest amount of energy is that comes northward out of the GOM. I still think the Euro is a little over-amped, but man, it is not budging a bit.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, I don't think this is completely set in stone yet. The Euro is still trying to attempt energy handoff eastward @ 63 either into the eastern valley or western NC. Probably won't change its solution much, but it is really interesting to follow. Also, the 18z run was a lot stronger in terms acscums in Indiana and Ohio in comparison to 12z - meaning stronger system. Probably a bit of a western jog...but seems the slp center bounces around with each run. Again, if the slp gets clear of the Apps (either east or west), likely going to be much stronger. Looking very much like a westward track, and that is a good example of what happens when it gets clear of the Smokies. The operational actually has a piece of the low on the east side of the Apps. I think pretty much everyone needs to be pulling for this to get stronger. Even if the eastern valley gets dry slotted, the wrap-around could be pretty intense for NW facing slopes as it pulls northward.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Surprised nobody has mentioned the 12z GEM snow map for storm one....The GEM and its ensemble are not terrible in terms of snow or track. Maybe grasping at straws, but saw the JMA is still holding to a Piedmont track, so I tried to dig around to see if it had support, and found the GEM with still a strong solution for middle TN. I think the EURO is too far west. This will be a good test to see if it has a bias towards being too wrapped up. The 18z GFS still has a few members on the other side of the mountain. Sure, it is a long shot...but was surprised to see some models still holding out. With this being a powerful storm and also with a phase...still keeping one eye open.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, not a bad looking pattern for sure. Really hope we keep that block over HB and/or Greenland. Might be able to use that to bridge to the next trough amplification during January. I would be tickled to have a back-and-forth pattern vs just getting locked into a crap pattern like last winter.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The storm is on the 12z EPS around 180 @ 500....would be later next week.
  24. Carvers Gap
    So maybe the "big" story from the 12z suite is that both the GFS and Euro have Miller As for the second storm. Cold is marginal. Need the storm to be strong without pulling westward. Good start.
  25. Carvers Gap
    At 192, the storm wraps-up. Looks like a good deal for the Plateau at the very least.
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