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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS again has positive run-to-run trends in the d8-15 range...heights are higher over Greenland, BN heights over the Aleutians. Let’s see if we can get several more runs like that. Been difficult to come by... Of note...a three wave pattern is depicted instead of four.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The oddity continues(probably coincidence)...and the 12z suite being cooler continues as the GEFS is quite a bit cooler IMHO over the lower 48 for the last half of the run. edit: I wouldn't say yet that it has broken with its recent continuity for d8-15, but its run-to-run change when compared to the 6z GEFS is pretty remarkable as it places more of a trough in the eastern half of the US. Oops!...I accidentally put that in the obs thread earlier. @TellicoWx had some great thoughts that followed. Yeah, the 12z Euro has cooled as well with favorable trends during the d8-10 rang at 500. We will see where the EPS goes...but the 12z suite is again favorable(so far) where the 0z was not as much. The run-to-run trends on the Euro are pretty good. Not sure I would say the models have flip-flopped...but if they were to hold that look for 3-4 more runs, then maybe that term might be applicable. I do agree with Tellico that climatology and ENSO are good counter balances to keep things steady. Climo does call for a warm December about 2/3 of the time for weak El Ninos...I also operate on the idea that nature tries to balance itself out as evidenced by the West having cold winters and the East some of the time. The East is due for a cold winter. While a warm December would certainly make my forecast from June look good....it wouldn't bother me one bit if it busted as being too warm. I think a warm call for December is still a good one...but the 12z suite does show a more favorable Pacific developing around the 10th. So, who knows!
  3. Carvers Gap
    The oddity continues(probably coincidence)...and the 12z suite being cooler continues as the GEFS is quite a bit cooler IMHO over the lower 48 for the last half of the run. edit: I wouldn't say yet that it has broken with its recent continuity for d8-15, but its run-to-run change when compared to the 6z GEFS is pretty remarkable as it places more of a trough in the eastern half of the US.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Was a pretty sketchy drive back from Knoxville last night as moderate rain feel most of the trip home. We fortunately hit a nice seam where only light rain was falling at one point. Lots of ponding water on the roadway. Creeks are full this morning. Pretty amazing the difference in the weather pattern from several weeks ago...seems to be no problem with nice rain totals now. Reminds me of last winter and spring. Just turn on the fire hose.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z GFS continues to advertise a potential storm period from Dec 10-15...hopefully we can get just enough of a cold source region to make that interesting.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Not a ton to add to Friday’s comments. Another less than favorable overnight run. Let’s we if the afternoon suites yet again look workable. Been an odd pattern in modeling for a couple of weeks. I don’t see a ton right now that shows cold making it this far south and holding. IMHO, going to have to wait until late December before things shake-up and maybe longer than that. As stated earlier, I do hold out hope that modeling does flip back. It could happen. The last seasonal Cansips is out today. It has flipped completely to a western winter for January and February. It has a sprawling ridge centered in the western Plains for December which encompasses most of the lower 48. Last year, winter modeling, excluding the Cansips I think, was almost universally cold in the East. So, TIFWIW. The SSW probably is going to input some chaos later this month. Seasonal modeling can be iffy at best...but has some skill if specifics are removed and one looks for general patterns.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And delay number 3...LOL.
  8. Carvers Gap
    And second time the stadium has been cleared due by to storms. I blame the severe wx guys for this. LOL J/K!
  9. Carvers Gap
    I am too old to be sitting in the rain. In my younger days, I welcomed it. Then, I got older and smarter...well, somewhat smarter.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Man, bought some seats in the dry. Pays to be an AmWx regular. As soon as you all starting talking about this weekend, I knew I was going to buy them in the dry.
  11. Carvers Gap
    All of Neyland in the tunnels, folks. Doesn’t get much better than that. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Great to see so many folks talking weather on a Friday night! I generally follow a rule that the latitude that a storm enters the West coast is the generally the latitude that it exits. Get storms entering around Los Angeles and that is generally good track for the forum. Looks like we have some source region problems in terms of cold during that time of higher activity...The 18z GEFS looked workable. So, some good afternoon trends which fits a strange pattern of warm overnight model suites followed by cooler afternoon suites...least it seems that way to me.
  13. Carvers Gap
    That would be not one but two major storms during the d10-15 time frame on the 18z GFS. Now let's see if subsequent runs depict storm in that time frame...they won't be exactly the same due to it be in the LR - just a general stormy pattern will suffice. Might be we have to watch the timeframe from Dec10-15. JB mentioned it this AM, but I brushed it off as a passing comment. That said, plenty of storms parading underneath. Not a lot of cold to work with, but such are El Nino winters. El Nino winters can and do have snow during warm-ups. My thoughts on temps are not really any different...but it might be a fairly stormy period even with the 500 configuration.
  14. Carvers Gap
    ....And the 18z GFS "Happy Hour" rides again. The Miller A parade d10+...some warm, some cold.
  15. Carvers Gap
    So...it appears we are back to last year's discussion of a back-ended winter. I do think that works this year. We have kicked around some "benchmark analogs." I have no idea if we get close to those stellar winters. However, the MJO taking a very extended tour through the warm phases likely does a ton of damage to the PV. What that sets up is the PV being displaced during the second half of winter. Yeah, I know...that is (edit)four to six weeks away. However, many truly great winters didn't get going until mid-January. Do I think we go wall-to-wall warmth (for the duration of winter) after next week? No, but who knows. The weather has a way of humbling those who speak in absolutes as if they know what is coming next. I don't claim anything but my opinion...and it certainly does not have to verify as true. I like my forecast ideas that I posted back in June. If I was going to tweak them, I would bring January to normal. So, December would be AN. Jan would be normal to just above. Feb below normal. But I am not going to tweak them. Why? I still think cold(maybe very cold air) lurks during the second half of winter. Same conversation as last year...but this is not last year. The QBO should be descending instead of rising to positive. That is a big deal. Unfortunately, looks like we will have to weather 2-4 weeks of AN temps beginning around mid-Dec. If anything, I do think were are actually in a Nino pattern now as evidenced in that we are seeing highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Seems like much of the 90s had winters just like that, excluding some notable and well-discussed exceptions. So, if we are in a Nino pattern...should get Nino results which is backloaded winter and a warm December. Last winter, not sure the Nino ever coupled with the atmosphere. While it is certainly disappointing to see some warm ensembles and operational runs, it is no surprise. But who knows, maybe we flip back and what is being modeled is just a relaxation and not a pattern change...good question that we don't have an answer to just yet. Meanwhile, the SSW lurks.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I lived on Papermill at the time. Definitely true that they got much less than surrounding areas. Seems like we got 4-6" there with lots of ice. I drove home to Kingsport that weekend and was shocked at how much snow other areas had received. Snow from two storms was now piled in parking lots. Great write-up John...and that is the data that was missing from MRX I think. Is it back now or did you have to use media reports?
  17. Carvers Gap
    Pretty ugly looking MJO forecast from the Euro and GEFS this morning. Must be starting to see the convection from the IO moving into MJO regions. The Euro/GEFS look like they are going to attempt to take a crawling tour of the warm phases of the MJO. That means that once we turn warm in mid-December, could be a while before the cold returns if that verifies. Not a great sign. We better hope that SSW delivers...if not, the possibility of a fairly warm December with a touch of torch at times is on the table and possibly extending well into January. It is true that there are some similarities to last year from a forecast perspective - meaning flip flops. Still, not sure many expected a cool(edit) December this year as opposed to last year's bullishly cold winter forecasts. I hadn't looked at the MJO forecast when I made my earlier comments today...I would say that(in my mind) the chances for a warm December have risen to roughly to a 70-75% chance. That is still not written in stone - the SSW likely still wrecking havoc modeling as previously noted. Then danger with that slow tour is that once the MJO cycles back to colder phases, does it skip them like last year and rotate back into warm phases? At the speed the MJO is taking...that would not be a good thing. It shouldn't do that during an El Nino and with the SOI where it is, but that would be a worst case scenario. Maybe this year we get the reverse of last year...meaning modeling that has very poor source cold on ensembles flipping back to cold and holding. A few runs of the GFS have hinted at the possibility in the LR, but those don't seem to hold. Right now if I was isotherm, I would be feeling pretty darn good about that forecast. I still hold out hope that the SSW is masking what actual hemispheric circulation patterns will be once it has run its course.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS had some fairly big shifts as well in the LR. I would lean warm for mid-Dec, but I think things are far from settled as evidenced by the flip-flopping. Maybe things will settle down as we leave the shoulder season. Not sure I like the trends...but as weathertree stated, just wait for the next run as it will be different.
  19. Carvers Gap
    ...Also, the temps under that 500 pattern are not warm. Be sure to look at temp anomalies along with the 500 pattern.
  20. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS...now that is a -NAO.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
  22. Carvers Gap
    As for severe wx, bring me some thunder in the mountains....
  23. Carvers Gap
    Also, it should be noted(heard this from JB) that we are actually dealing with two SSWs. One is going on at present and the other will begin in the d8-15 time frame...that is the one that is really going to heat things up. Looks to me like the PV gets stretched a bit at 10mb late in the GEFS run. As HM notes, would be very unwise to "swing for the fences" (with a call for cold or warm) right now with so much uncertainty at high latitudes. Also note that a brief but near record ridge in the East often precedes a PV split. Need to be on the lookout for that. That feature has preceded the last two PV splits. That much warm air surging into the Arctic is gonna leave a mark. Also, I think we have had PV splits at the tropospheric levels that were not "top down" events which were results of SSWs. Double check that...but I am pretty sure sometimes the PV can split without the stratosphere forcing it. Right now, IMHO, we are still about 15-25 days from really weakening the PV and maybe 10-15 days after that the tropospheric PV gets forced off its spot. So if we use the six week rule(see John's post above), that would actually fit the timing for a new pattern. Maybe the seeds for the pattern are being planted now. Also, for future reference, I don't think anyone is calling for major cold over E TN at this point. Just discussion SSW events. So, if one of us comes back and reads this thread later....just kicking stuff around, but not calling for an Arctic outbreak.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Great winters can definitely happen due to SSWs and they can also ruin good patterns IMHO. Notable SSW events that really enhanced and helped great winters to occur were Jan 1977, Jan 1985, and Jan 2009. IMHO, last year's SSW did actually propagate correctly to tropospheric levels. That SSW split into multiple vortices. Incredible cold and blocking did result as a trough tucked itself over the northern Rockies for months. Island Park, Idaho, set multiple snow records. As I had mentioned before, I was in MT/WY/ID during late March and early April of this year. In West Yellowstone, the snow was stacked up to second floor windows. They did not have much winter prior to the split of the PV which was a result of the SSW. February was epic. Folks couldn't even get to the river's edge on the Madison near 3$ Bridge without skis. Then, they had to find an entry point to the water. Some drifts were 10-12' high at the river's edge. For us, it screwed-up a return to a decent pattern. Remember how November was cold and that has a reasonable correlation to a cold winter. Well, the pattern changed on time to a warmer pattern last December after a massive head-fake to cold(multiple head fakes seem to be common during SSW events). The SSW lasted for much of the second half of December, and the PV split. The West, which hadn't had much winter at all, then had winter on steroids that lasted well into late June. As a note, warming at 10mb, 30mb, and 50mb can occur much earlier than the actual PV split event at the troposphere. There is great debate (on whether an SSW that does not result in a PV split at the troposphere) can result in major changes in weather at the surface. I am in the camp that the warming itself is a great indicator of blocking. What is the great unknown is where the blocking actually develops. The SSW during later winter and spring of 2018 resulted in a very cold spring with plenty of frozen precip and cold during March and early April. It took some time for the troposphere to react to that event. Last winter, the atmosphere reacted well before the event even occurred. So another variable is lag time. Those two variables, lag time in affecting the surface and where the blocking sets up, create total havoc in modeling. We don't have enough analogs to really know how that occurs. Things like ENSO, solar, and QBO also have to factored into SSW events...and that creates incredibly small analog packages. As for the great winters of '77, '85, and '09. They all had them. Again, it is important to remember that SSW events usually begin well before the PV splits. Seems like '09 had warming early in December. The winter of '85 was a pretty ho-hum winter until mid January. I don't remember much in NE TN that was overlay notable prior to that split. The second half of that month and early February would be the some of the worst winter weather(interpret "worst" act cold and snowy) that I have ever experienced. Spent many sub-zero nights in a crawl space trying to fix broken pipes with my dad. I remember how tough it was to actually get the frozen water out of the pipe so it wouldn't melt later and ruin the solder joint for the new pipe. The winter of '85 reminds me very much of what the northern Rockies experienced last winter...very average winter that suddenly flipped to extreme cold and snow. I don't remember much about '77, just that it was really snowy. It is of course, the benchmark of what many will say is winter. In conclusion, SSWs don't always result in PV splits. However, IMHO they can still impact high latitude blocking, but not always. During an SSW look for abnormally strong spikes in teleconnection indices. Big unknowns about SSWS and ensuing PV splits are where the blocking sets up and how much of a lag(time from SSW to PV split at high altitude to propagating to troposphere) there is. Those two variables IMHO can create total havoc in modeling. A small rule of thumb that I use is that when bitterly cold air is dropped into NA, weather models go haywire. I have also noticed that SSWs can cause models to flip-flop at the last minute as they did last winter. Many great winters did not have SSW events, but the many of the worst ones have them. Also, someone check and see if 14-15 had an SSW - that winter is probably the snowiest winter that we have had since 95-96(not an SSW) in Kingsport. Great discussion, everyone, and Happy Thanksgiving!
  25. Carvers Gap
    A childhood friend of mine sequences the DNA at the CDC for the flu vaccine. Crazy, huh? Some years they miss pretty badly. Some years are really good. As for basketball, going to take some lumps with the new team in Knoxville this year. With the #4 recruiting class in the country, help is on the way next year though. Hopefully, we can still grab an NCAA tourney spot this year.
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