Carvers Gap

I think a fairly good case could be made for multiple scenarios this winter. A lot of seasonal forecasting is a crap shoot as there is just too much chaos that can't be accounted for at this time from an atmospheric perspective. But there are some really good seasonal forecasters out there...Many times those seasonal forecasts have good information even during years when their forecasts don't verify. Usually the best ones pretty much spell out their ideas plainly in either a general or a meticulous format. Some of those mets work in private or government industry and can't release their detailed forecast. So, just have to read between the lines. As for why folks are going warm...bet the streak. The pattern which has led to a cold inter-mountain northwest has been tough to beat as has the SER. Until that pattern runs its course...tough to bet against it. I think probably the warmth in the NE Pacific has some influence on the warm winter outlooks. I think the ongoing NA pattern does. I think the rather wonky looking El Nino(cooler in the East) is factoring into those. I think the uncertainty with the QBO is fueling some of that along with the recent overall tendency for winters to be AN in the East. As hobbiests, we have the freedom to kick around different ideas with little or no accountability, because our jobs don't depend on it. If I was going on TV with a winter storm forecast, I doubt I would be as forthcoming with multiple models ideas as I am here. Folks get mad when forecasts bust. So many veteran mets are super careful with their words which is not a bad idea in any profession. Anyway, the new Cansips comes out tomorrow and the Euro seasonal should roll within a week. Those should be interesting, but I am especially interested in the Cansips as it has been pretty good during the past few winters.

Forgot about that. LOL. Yeah, that is really pretty wild. If that cold verifies, it would be almost a carbon copy in terms of September, October and early November for much of the forum area. I mean '54 has to run out of steam at some point, right?

Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are dropping big highs out of Canada late in their runs, into the front range of the Rockies, and then southeastward. Some of those highs are 1045s. That is significant early cold if that verifies. I normally don't talk about stuff that far out...but the 500 pattern would support a major cold outbreak for the eastern 2/3s of the country for the first half of November(edit...it did say February...LOL). There were places in Wyoming that smashed record lows this AM - not the same air mass as I am discussing...just illustrates the impressive early season cold. Both models bring a system out fo the GOM that ride the Arctic front's boundary as either a northern Miller A or a Miller B. I know it is out there in terms of time...but man, those are some big highs. If those keep showing up, they will be the antithesis of what happened to begin October and a heckuva a lot more fun to talk about. LOL.

12z operational Euro is not warm. Wow. May be a break from the cold(and we would want it after that run) by mid November according to the EPS. Who knows...d10+ has been sketchy on the EPS.

The point and click grid forecasts for the NWS, now show rain changing to snow on Thursday night for the highest elevations of the eastern mountains.

Nah, I was just joking around. We actually have decent accuracy in the forum from several folks. My “hobby specialities” are the 2-4 week time frame...and NE TN snowstorms. I enjoy the pattern recognition stuff. I got into this hobby though just wanting to know snow accumulations for my backyard. However, last November was not a good one for me. I do think we want November to have some cold shots and be BN, even if slightly. John has some very good data correlating cold Novembers to cold winters. Didn’t work last winter, but still is a generally good indicator. As for knowing what will take place, I think there is some skill involved and some good fortune. But hey, we make our own luck often times. What makes this interesting is not knowing what will happen...basically making sense of what looks like chaos. The ENSO pattern right now does tell us some important information as do some other indices such as the QBO, MJO cycle, solar, and IOD. Biggest thing is seeing where the storm track(s) sets up during November and what the 500 pattern is. We are now at the time of year where the atmosphere might give us some clues. There are some rumbles of the NAO turning strongly positive. That might be a long term problem if it flips right now. Things like that.

Just a warm, beautiful day outside. Rain eases in tomorrow evening with big temp swings predicted Thursday into Friday. And then...it feels like late fall finally. I am still trained to think it is gonna be 90F every day. Next week is gonna hurt....less sunlight in the evening and much cooler temps. High temps during the first week of November will be nearly 40 degrees cooler than they were to begin October! Honestly, this has been a fairly fun change to monitor. Seeing frost on rooftops with grass in the yard that has been fried by heat is a little surreal.

Me predicting warmth in November is the signal for the Euro/EPS to flip cold on the very next run...I am fairly sure of that.

Some very strong cold fronts depicted on the 12z Euro.

Yeah, no doubt!!! November was BN after that record stretch of temps in '54. If I remember correctly from the analog creator, the following winter was pretty average in terms of temps. Temps then might have been a little AN for that decade's norms, but BN by today's norms. At some point, that analog won't work for us anymore, but it has been a bit uncanny just how accurate it has been, even down to the return of warmth this week...and then the door slams shut on the warmth. October of '54 double dipped into record warmth twice during that month during non-consecutive weeks. I doubt we have seen the last of the SER...again, that cold pool off of SA argues for it. That said, a little bit of SER can help if the storm track is over our area. It would keep the cold from going straight to New Orleans like it has during past winters. I am just ready to fire up the wood stove!

Awesome, man! You are gonna like that upslope stuff during winter....and probably gonna hate that downslope stuff as well. LOL. Seriously, great to have you posting over here.

Just crazy how well that 1954 analog has held up...

Call would be first half BN and second half AN for November for the forum area...but we all know how my call for a warm second half of November turned out last year. LOL. So take that with a huge grain of salt. Though, the pattern did finally flip warm last year...just waited until early December after that big snow here. Let's see what happens when the cooler pattern sets up shop. Sometimes it takes some time to give it the boot. When the warm pattern last year locked-in, models tried to break it down in the 2-3 week window repeatedly. Let's see what happens with this cold stretch of days. I still think back-and-forth is likely with a warmer than normal December...cooler Jan and Feb. If we want a cold January, probably need to have the pattern break warm during late November and let that run into December.

Looks to me like the MJO is about ready to cycle around. November is a weird month for the MJO....transitioning from fall to winter analogs is tricky. That simply means the MJO, like many other teleconnections, does not necessarily behave the same way over NA during each season. November is almost winter, but still late fall. So, my guess would be some warmth during November depending on amplitude and time in each phase. Just glancing at the MJO, it seems to move quickly through each phase. The Euro seems behind again on the amplitude as it is still in the COD. I suspect it gains amplitude as we get closer to reality. Maybe mid-late November we pop AN for a bit...huge assumptions in that guess though, so take with a big grain. Seems to me if early November goes cool, looks like a warm December might be on the table with cold potentially coming back early to mid-January. We have been in the current pattern for about twenty days - that is going back to when the extreme heat broke. Add another 15 days to now, and that is about five weeks. I generally roll with 5-7 weeks as a very general rule for patterns before they expire. The current pattern is not a cold one, but more seasonal than anything. Early November might actually be slightly BN. Marching band competition season is over(some HS football still to go)...so I am good with anything. LOL. Got soaked Friday night here in Kingsport, did a couple of loads of laundry, and then turned/burned it up I-81 early Saturday. Saturday was a great day in Lynchburg both for the weather and the band. The rain held off, and didn't roll through until the last gear was being loaded onto the semi. Then drove through the early morning hours in a downpour back to TRI. If any of that commentary looks like total crap...it might be. LOL. I hadn't looked(until last night) at model or an index since last Thursday! Still pretty much looks the same with is good news if one like seasonal. Anyway, good to be back in a routine.

Take a look at the 15 day EPS...pretty much the Weeklies from tonight. I am not going to add much so if Jeff wants to deep dive into them he can. Just looked like a continuation of the current pattern of cold shots, ridging, cold shots, ridging..........I can live with the pattern depicted - not that I really have a choice unless I move to Fairbanks. Trust me, I have considered it. LOL. Then I looked at the price per pound for moving there.

It is shoulder season right now, and models are notorious for misses during this time of year. Last year, the Euro was all-in on a warm November and missed badly - me included. Then the Euro and its Weeklies(and seasonal runs) whiffed on the winter pattern. The JMA for last winter was truly bad. The GFS has done reasonably well in at least signaling cold outbreaks in NA where the Euro had none at all. Problem with the GFS and the Euro as well, is the are struggling with the MJO which is causing havoc in downstream forecasts, ie ridge and trough placement. I think the Euro has been a little more consistent though it did a huge flip over the weekend with the ridge/trough alignment over North America. The good thing is that if each model's bias is taken into account...they have been serviceable. For example, the Euro was a bit too wound up with the Plains system and pulled the precip field back too far. The GFS was too progressive. The Euro moved about a 1/3 of the way to the GFS and then the GFS backed up 2/3 of the way. As for upcoming ten days, likely plenty of back-and-forth temps. The past week at TRI has been slightly BN - thankfully!!!! I think the next ten days will be similar. D10-15 seem to indicate an eastern trough with AN heights building underneath. That can create forecasting headaches if true. EPS troughs in the d10-15 seems to actually verify much stronger. Conversely, ridging is much stronger. I think once we get into the second week of November, we might see temps move to tolerable AN values with cold shots building in the Rockies and surging eastward. Still looks like the same pattern that we are in, but slightly warmer - that is not set in stone! Honestly, the current October and November pattern reminds of the spring pattern with the SER present just enough which allows for precip to come into play - not talking flooding, just the pattern. Thankfully, Virginia looks rain free for Saturday!!! Last marching band competition of the season. These temps have been a welcome relief to all of the HS and college sports teams who have had to practice outside. It has been truly pleasant. Lastly, the leaves are now changing in earnest in this area. These cool nights and plentiful precip of late have really hurried things along. Not sure my garden will ever produce again at the level it has this fall regarding cool season crops. The shorter days combined with warm weather has made for nearly perfect conditions to grow some of those crops. My scallions and garlic are just coming up. They really don't like to poke through the soil until the cooler temps of fall show up. Over the next three weeks, the early season cool crops will die back and the late season cold crops of garlic and scallions will take over. Interesting fact....Scallions are multiplier onions. This means that you can put one in the ground and it will form a large clump of onions similar to planting just a single potato. Garlic will be harvested late next spring or early summer. Scallions will likely be ready during spring. I have heard that cold winters make garlic have more flavor, as if it needed it! Honestly, garlic is one of the few things in my garden that doesn't taste much different than what is purchased in the store. I grow it because, it looks cool and I also know that it has been grown in mostly organic soil. Most things from the garden taste much better than store-bought, because one can pick them while ripe thus preserving the sugars found in them. Things that taste notably better than store-bought: carrots, salad greens, tomatoes, squashes, beans, potatoes(all varieties), onions, and herbs to name a few. Best thing about garden food is that you know how they were grown.

Just when we think it is time to go back in the water...the 12z Euro operational flips much cooler. The handling of the weekend system does seem to be a lynchpin to the short range pattern that occurs after. One can definitely see that big EPO ridge. It certainly plays a key roll as Jeff spoke about in his earlier post. The EPS tamps it down a bit. Even the control has changed the configuration a tad, ie weakens it w vortices rolling into it and strengthens it at other times when compared to the previous run. Still is a big, big ridge that seems semi-constant. I really have no idea if the Euro continues by kicking out the undercutting trough, splitting the troughs rolling down the front range, or if it returns to the Southwest during subsequent runs. None of those would be a surprise and well within the norm of energy diving into the West. That tuck has been a stubborn feature of for many months/years. In a year not named 2018 or 2019, I would say it is normally an error by the Euro, but sometimes verifies as cutoff lows in the Southwest are not that rare. That said, Euro guidance did surprisingly move towards the GFS at 12z. If that trough tucks in under that EPO ridge intermittently during the next few months, going to be nearly impossible to know when it tucks and or when it is in error. Do I believe any particular model at this point? Nope. Though it would be interesting if the GFS is actually correct about the energy coming through TX over the weekend...

I think we are still OK for Friday night football in E TN as is...maybe not west. UT game is OK as is...but the rain trending more quickly eastward I don't like. LOL. Hey, I posted without looking at the 12z Euro either. I was like...maybe I better go look. I don't think the slp track is that much different which is basically eastern Oklahoma to Chicago. However, the precip on the east side is much more robust and moving more quickly eastward. The Euro still looks much different than the GFS, but not so sure it didn't blink just a tad. Besides, a rainy game Saturday might be in the Vols' best interest with our QB situation, just not great for the fans!

And sure as heck...the Euro trended eastward for the weekend system. LOL. Not quite in Virginia yet, though.....

Definitely watching the weekend system as the marching band is heading to Virginia for another big regional competition. Pretty amazing to see the GFS is handling that system totally different. Lots of rain on Saturday w the GFS where the non-GFS models take the same system into the Plains. Hoping the non-GFS suite wins this battle, even if it means dealing with a SE ridge for few more days!!! Watching the 12z suite closely.

Weather this AM is gnarly. The weather in this trailer is gnarly as well. The Star Wars theme/score in the middle of this trailer is just sick. I saw the first one in the theaters in 1977. I was super disappointed in the last Star Wars movie. This trailer gives me hope that they will get this one right. The was the last Star Wars full trailer of my time. But wow, what a trailer it is.

Just tagging onto my earlier post. I think that 6z GEFS(10.21.19) run still looks like a good compromise. Looks like the 12z GEFS and EPS have their act back together...at least for this run. Very similar runs and placement of features. Looks like both moved towards each other. About the only thing different from a few days ago(looked super quick...so don't consider this a scientific statement with loads of rigor) is a cut-off that will dive into the southwest. "Looks" like the Euro has resolved leaving the low in the Southwest versus just dumping every subsequent cold shot there. IMHO, that is just normal bias working itself out. My main concern, is that has sort of been the actual solution(cold dumping West and staying) for about ten months so I am definitely gun shy. Basically a progressive pattern with warm and cold dispersed fairly evenly. Weeklies will run off a very warm run...bet they would have looked different if derived from the 12z.

Was a Saturday of close calls. Kansas nearly edged out Texas. The Vols were a botched fourth down play from taking the Tide down to the wire. Hey, having the number one team in the country in a one score game late was a true feat for a team that lost to Georgia State, a game which I will never fully understand.

Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now. Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Pac...as Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter. I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part. The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with. Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin. As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course. At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two. That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years. The 90s had many low water years out there. When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term. Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat. But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below. Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot. Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive. Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch. Might be we get both of each this winter.

Not a ton this AM that hasn't already been discussed. Sometimes that EPO ridge can bee too much of a good thing. Looks like the Euro is correctly placing energy into the Southwest sort of underneath that big ridge. We have seen that many times during past years. Cold is forecast for the East and the model corrects by dropping it into the West underneath a big West Coast, coastal high. Fortunately, I wasn't totally bought into the cold Eastern solution quite yet. I do think it is a situation where the trough still eventually goes into the East. The GEFS has corrected towards the EPS solution this AM which is of no surprise at all. I actually like the 6z GEFS run as I suspect that might be how it evolves at 500. Energy hangs back and then kicks out...and the eastern trough reforms for a time. My money is on a big warmup next weekend into early next week. Would not surprise me to see some record highs fall, though I have not looked at them recently. I made a mental note a few weeks ago that there were some low-hanging fruit record highs in late October. This week should be pleasant with seasonal to slightly BN. The 12z runs will be interesting to see if the the GEFS and EPS continue to move towards each other. Some say the recurving typhoon over Japan is responsible for the bouncing around of the EPS over the weekend. I think it is just fall, and well within what normally happens...which means LR ensembles are notoriously fickle at this time of year. I still think the overall pattern is one where cold builds out West and then surges eastward with big fronts. Warm surges behind those fronts on return flow. Wash, rinse, repeat. Pretty classic fall pattern. In other words, fairly progressive pattern where nothing really holds yet.