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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS "could" evolve to something better as the lower pressures move into the Aluetians. The 0z EPS would block any cold air from coming south even into southern Canada. We have seen this false signal from the GEFS over and over again, but it is worth noting that the GEPS(Canadian ensemble) had it first. The GFS often will catch trends more quickly, and even may jump the gun a bit. IStill need a few more runs before I buy the GEFS. ...12GFS has high elevation snow for the Plateau and Smokies for the Saturday after Thanksgiving. LONG way out, but just shows that the cold is now back(even if briefly).
  2. Carvers Gap
    6z GEFS has flipped to a western ridge around 210 and holds, but we also know that model has a wicked bias as discussed last winter by John. Cold source is LACKING, so TIFWIW. Probably a window for a snowstorm in the interior NE just after Thanksgiving.
  3. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS operational is now cold again after Thanksgiving with upslope snow that Saturday for the Smokies. Not a warm look, but let's be real....head fakes have been the norm. So, bout all I am going to say.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Glad I didn't write-off December yesterday. Some hints (when have we seen that before...lots), of some changes in the LR across most ensembles if not all. Need several more runs before I comment in depth, but interesting stuff.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Grabbed this from the MA forum. The Capitol Wx Gang has released its winter outlook. I found it fairly interesting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/washington-dc-winter-outlook-2020-21/
  6. Carvers Gap
    The12z CMC is what we need to be hoping for and the 0z GEPS ensemble. Pretty much the "less bad" scenario.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think we are gonna have to be really wary of any advertised pattern flip. At some point, it will happen. That said, we are on year 3 of a very similar pattern during late fall/winter which displaces cold air into the northern Rockies. They absolutely got hammered in wester WY this past weekend. They get snow, but that was like a Sierra Nevada storm for them. I think we will get some passing cold shots. I am just about ready to write-off December through at least Dec 20th. If I do, you can thank me when the models flip cold the next day. There is a part of me that says modeling is mishandling the pattern after Dec 1 as blocking is notorious for causing snafus in modeling. That said, I just don't see many cold outbreaks on the horizon. Honestly, this is how moderate to strong LaNina's work - very few chances if any. I still think we get a window during December(maybe right before Christmas) and then another during January. But I will echo my winter forecast idea remarks, there are going to be long stretches with next to zero threats IMO. All of that said, modeling is notoriously fickle. It can change in the drop of a hat. I am not really discouraged at this point, because this is no surprise at all.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I feel certain that we have some actual farmers on this forum, even if they just lurk some. @Coach B, is this in your wheelhouse?
  9. Carvers Gap
    Man, you know TN football has gone into the crapper when I am on here talking weather during football season on a Saturday. Kind of appreciate the cancellation today so as not to have to watch sub-par football. If they take our basketball season and we deal with cloudy and 50 all winter...going to be a grumpy bunch of posters!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Welcome aboard! Yeah, great weather forum. Too many great posters to name.
  11. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Watch, we will track this pattern change and it will turn out to be only a passing front...remember that from the last two winters? But nah, I think we have a shot here at some colder weather.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS again showing some very significant blocking at high latitude. Oddly, the Euro(as John noted last night) appears to have caught some changes before the GFS. It has been my experience(that even though it has a very bad cold bias), when in shoulder season the upgraded GFS tends to catch shoulder-season pattern changes and lock on. I should also add that the GEPS has also been early on picking out this potential change. Ensembles sometimes are a little slow to catch pattern changes, because they wash them out. That said, we want to see the changes begin to show on the ensembles now as the timeframe gets closer during the next few days. The trend seems to be every so slightly towards a significant cool down after Thanksgiving or right around it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Have to hit the sack. Let's hope we see more of the runs which are similar auto the 12z EPS control and 0z GFS.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think La Nina really favors Arkansas quite a bit. I like Jeff because he doesn't Twitter hype or talk cryptically. Plus, he is a met for our region where those two don't work our area(no disrespect to them).
  15. Carvers Gap
    Agree. I trust Jeff the most. Maybe we can get the Chattanooga area some snow this winter as payment for his work!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Only because we have had next to nothing to talk about will I give the LR GFS any air time...(LOL) but what is being depicted on that run is the beginning of winter for us. No idea if it verifies. Modeling has been hinting at a flip for a few days. The GFS is world renown for jumping into the deep end a bit too quickly. One of the better runs of this early season.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Jeff hinted at a post-Thanksgiving cool down. Those are several really good sources. What happens after d10 would be a complete reversal of our current pattern(at least temporarily). That said...every, single time that has been shown this fall actual verification put the tough out West. There seems to major model bias almost universally to dumping cold eastward and reverting back westward as reality approaches. But some of the d10+ looks have been interesting to say the least.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is the GFS and yeah that is a LONG WAY out there...but that run should wake a few folks up from their long summer naps.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Lots of late night content for those early morning risers...the 0z GFS is less on board with Webber's comments from earlier today(reversal of heights in AK) BUT there does seem to be an Aleutian low showing up fairly consistently. During the past few winters, that has usually set the stage for what meager winter offerings which we have scored with...and I mean meager. That low tends to pump the EPO/PNA ridge (even if temporarily), and forces an eastern trough. One can see that pretty clearly after d10 with the 48 hour 500 trend on Tropical Tidbits. Big banana high over the top, and that would be an EC storm signal past 300. But as a friend of mine would say...but is it right? No idea! LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies certainly hinted that high latitude blocking may well form and push storms into the "low road." Lots of moving parts right now, and highly doubt any modeling has this nailed at this range. Much of what is being discussed is in week 2 and even week 3.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is definitely not there yet I should add...the 12z EPS control has the path towards a colder EC. Modeling has been slowly becoming murkier. I have generally found that when modeling goes a bit "haywire" during later fall and/or winter....really cold air is entering into NA. Again, I think it is way too early to say where it goes or even that it is a certainty that cold is coming. The very LR stuff out there right now is hinting that early to mid Dec may get cold. I would be down with that since my winter forecast would be in good shape - I actually didn't change it. Just am rolling the dice and staying with my original ideas.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Pretty reliable person on Twitter....One could probably connect what Masiello and Webb are discussing. We have seen plenty of head fakes this fall with almost every head fake resulting in a western trough and record cold there. However, the MJO in conjunction with changes in blocking at high latitudes "might" be signaling that the next outbreak will be further eastward. Whether that is in the center of the country or here in the TN Valley forum area...I don't know.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I went back and looked at his posts on this...sometimes his posts are tough for me to decipher. From what I can gather, that region has been promoting a SE ridge - that MJO area has been a thorn for a couple of winters. He made a correct call back in Oct that the SER was going to lock in. Best I can gather is that he is saying that region in the western Pacific will now begin to interfere with the signal which has produced this monster EC ridge. Lots of debate on what the MJO is about to do. Modeling has definitely trended away from a strong ridge pattern(after next week) to more of an uncertain mix of signals. I mean really we have had a standing wave over the EC for several days in the from of a ridge. I think his post is basically saying that is about to change later this month. Good find. Anyone else is free to jump right in.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Seems to be a continued attempt at reshuffling the pattern later this month - just to echo what Jeff and others have stated.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have your back on pretty much all of that. Not a terrible look after Thanksgiving. Thanks for keeping us updated. How do the clusters look on the Euro Weeklies?
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