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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Couple of interesting Tweets From Webber... In the category of every year is its own analog:
  2. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll not only can I work my way around Wx maps and their many uses, but I have been honing my skills in Google Classroom, Canvas, Kahoot, ClassLink, and Aspen. 12z EPS now rolling. Let's see if the positive trends continue.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I am completely throwing all rules aside today as it is Friday, and virtual school for the day is over(we are on hybrid...today is the virtual part of that formula for us). If you have been doing virtual school with your kids, you will completely understand the need to enjoy the d10 Euro operational. I love my kids, but man...it is work. Anyway, as I wonder around to make my point....upslope snow potential at the end of that run. I don't care if it is there at midnight, but going to enjoy it now. No final drafts, no music submission stuff, no modules to complete...just LR weather. On a lighter note, we all realize that these great virtual platforms are about to turn our snow days into just more virtual learning.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS after 300, I will take it. Yeah, I know it is frowned upon to talk 300+ stuff for obvious reasons, especially with an operational run. But going to enjoy that for six more hours.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Seeing continued changes in modeling today, especially ensembles. The Canadian operational and ensemble are most aggressive. Why do I mention the Canadian model? It "seemed" to be the first model to catch some changes that are now showing-up on other ensembles. Honestly, there are more changes than I have time to describe. If it continues at lunch, I will try to spend some more time discussing those changes. At this point the Euro Weeklies yesterday are almost on an island. Often we will see a great weeklies run, and then get abandoned by the 12z run - opposite for once. Note on Holston's animations above that one of the really big changes is in Alaska. IF that area of cold vacates that areas, that allows for an EPO ridge to build or maybe the EPO ridge just pushes it out of the way. I don't think this is a precursor to months of cold weather. What is being shown is typical Nina pattern stuff...cold start and very warm after that. Let's hope it verifies. I suspect this window(likely will be quite narrow from a time standpoint), might be our shot at winter. No idea if any of this holds. Been plenty of head fakes. Maybe one thing that gives me a bit more encouragement this time is that we aren't seeing a -NAO sig which initiates all of this. The -NAO has rarely verified. This time it is the western ridge that holds, and that is more realistic IMHO. Again, to be clear, going to need more cold air than what is being shown. Also, highly doubt the changes are over in modeling.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Definitely need wavelengths to shorten up. The EPS control seemed a bit better in that respect off the top of my head.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS quite a bit different than the Weeklies and their derived 0z run. Ensembles are blouncing around a bit where they had been locked. I do agree I don’t see a ton of cold delivery. That said, a well placed storm with the 12z EPS look(especially the control) might work.
  8. Carvers Gap
    To me that run of the 12 GFS is feeding back on that cutoff - for like six days! When have I said that before? LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC will work. Man, feels like deja vu all over again watching the GEFS close off a low in the southwest with a MONSTER ridge over the top. One would think the CMC with the more progressive look is more likely right. Those runs really look like they could pop a -EPO.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS "could" evolve to something better as the lower pressures move into the Aluetians. The 0z EPS would block any cold air from coming south even into southern Canada. We have seen this false signal from the GEFS over and over again, but it is worth noting that the GEPS(Canadian ensemble) had it first. The GFS often will catch trends more quickly, and even may jump the gun a bit. IStill need a few more runs before I buy the GEFS. ...12GFS has high elevation snow for the Plateau and Smokies for the Saturday after Thanksgiving. LONG way out, but just shows that the cold is now back(even if briefly).
  11. Carvers Gap
    6z GEFS has flipped to a western ridge around 210 and holds, but we also know that model has a wicked bias as discussed last winter by John. Cold source is LACKING, so TIFWIW. Probably a window for a snowstorm in the interior NE just after Thanksgiving.
  12. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS operational is now cold again after Thanksgiving with upslope snow that Saturday for the Smokies. Not a warm look, but let's be real....head fakes have been the norm. So, bout all I am going to say.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Glad I didn't write-off December yesterday. Some hints (when have we seen that before...lots), of some changes in the LR across most ensembles if not all. Need several more runs before I comment in depth, but interesting stuff.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Grabbed this from the MA forum. The Capitol Wx Gang has released its winter outlook. I found it fairly interesting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/washington-dc-winter-outlook-2020-21/
  15. Carvers Gap
    The12z CMC is what we need to be hoping for and the 0z GEPS ensemble. Pretty much the "less bad" scenario.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think we are gonna have to be really wary of any advertised pattern flip. At some point, it will happen. That said, we are on year 3 of a very similar pattern during late fall/winter which displaces cold air into the northern Rockies. They absolutely got hammered in wester WY this past weekend. They get snow, but that was like a Sierra Nevada storm for them. I think we will get some passing cold shots. I am just about ready to write-off December through at least Dec 20th. If I do, you can thank me when the models flip cold the next day. There is a part of me that says modeling is mishandling the pattern after Dec 1 as blocking is notorious for causing snafus in modeling. That said, I just don't see many cold outbreaks on the horizon. Honestly, this is how moderate to strong LaNina's work - very few chances if any. I still think we get a window during December(maybe right before Christmas) and then another during January. But I will echo my winter forecast idea remarks, there are going to be long stretches with next to zero threats IMO. All of that said, modeling is notoriously fickle. It can change in the drop of a hat. I am not really discouraged at this point, because this is no surprise at all.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I feel certain that we have some actual farmers on this forum, even if they just lurk some. @Coach B, is this in your wheelhouse?
  18. Carvers Gap
    Man, you know TN football has gone into the crapper when I am on here talking weather during football season on a Saturday. Kind of appreciate the cancellation today so as not to have to watch sub-par football. If they take our basketball season and we deal with cloudy and 50 all winter...going to be a grumpy bunch of posters!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Welcome aboard! Yeah, great weather forum. Too many great posters to name.
  20. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Watch, we will track this pattern change and it will turn out to be only a passing front...remember that from the last two winters? But nah, I think we have a shot here at some colder weather.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS again showing some very significant blocking at high latitude. Oddly, the Euro(as John noted last night) appears to have caught some changes before the GFS. It has been my experience(that even though it has a very bad cold bias), when in shoulder season the upgraded GFS tends to catch shoulder-season pattern changes and lock on. I should also add that the GEPS has also been early on picking out this potential change. Ensembles sometimes are a little slow to catch pattern changes, because they wash them out. That said, we want to see the changes begin to show on the ensembles now as the timeframe gets closer during the next few days. The trend seems to be every so slightly towards a significant cool down after Thanksgiving or right around it.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Have to hit the sack. Let's hope we see more of the runs which are similar auto the 12z EPS control and 0z GFS.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think La Nina really favors Arkansas quite a bit. I like Jeff because he doesn't Twitter hype or talk cryptically. Plus, he is a met for our region where those two don't work our area(no disrespect to them).
  24. Carvers Gap
    Agree. I trust Jeff the most. Maybe we can get the Chattanooga area some snow this winter as payment for his work!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Only because we have had next to nothing to talk about will I give the LR GFS any air time...(LOL) but what is being depicted on that run is the beginning of winter for us. No idea if it verifies. Modeling has been hinting at a flip for a few days. The GFS is world renown for jumping into the deep end a bit too quickly. One of the better runs of this early season.
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