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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I don't think so. I think this is more like the base of that trough forms two waves. One runs up through western NC and then another forms right along the coast. These powerhouse cold fronts have all kinds of energy. Short story...I don't see energy transfer to the coast. Now, there may be some energy transfer from one side of the apps to another at some point, especially further north.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Looks too weak and the system is moving quite quickly. But...it might be enough to back the flow.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Which it "should" trend towards(the NAM).
  4. Carvers Gap
    Just browsing the Euro...weak slp pressure forms in east-central Alabama. It moves NNE to extreme NE TN. Meanwhile a very weak area of slp forms near Charleston, SC, and moves along the coast. That feature is not on the GFS which I can find.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yes, and the one thing about the Euro is that is pretty consistent right now.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I think the potential is there for a big thump for somebody. Timing a strong cold front which is chasing into a line of precip from the West is tough. Ideally, we would want the slp to slow as it forms.
  7. Carvers Gap
    For sure!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z operational scorecard: UKMET: NE TN scraper but otherwise a whiff. GFS: Plateau and elevation dependent in TN. Eastern half of KY scores but less than previous runs. Euro: Consistent and beefs up numbers. CMC: Ohio...wow. High end of probability and a bit of an outlier. Trends: Westward jog on GFS and NAM. Others are fairly similar including RGEM.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Remember, new is on the left. 12z GFS operational compared to 6z. Looking back, the GFS "should" have been stronger. Low placement was decent, but precip was lacking once the changeover occurred. That is a legit option.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 12z Canadian Kuchera compared to 0z
  11. Carvers Gap
    Side-by-side of 12z and 0z Kuchera amounts. New run is on the left. 6z was a slight improvement from 0z. 12z was a slight improvement from 6z.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Kuchera from the 12z Euro has nearly identical placement of snow axis in our sub-forum but beefier.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro barely budges...impressive to see back-to-back runs from 6z and 12z hold that steady after the other models moved.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Through 39, looks very similar to 6z...slower than the GFS.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at 500 vort maps...the 12z Euro looks very similar to its off-run at 6z through 27
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is rolling.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Shew. There are literally all options on the table from a whiff to a major winter storm.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z UKMET is well east of the 12z GFS and most models. 12z CMC/GDPS is like right in the middle of the two tracks. There is a westward trend to the 12z suite for sure, but the UKMET slp is quite a bit east. This is not settled I don't think. So the eastern envelope is still a miss to the east for everyone but extreme NE TN. The western envelop is a slp slightly west of the Apps. The eastern envelop is a slop tracking just east of Asheville. UKMET looks too weak FWIW.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Holding off my run until after the 12z Euro....might be interesting.
  20. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, the UKMET looks decent...but I only have it in 12 hour increments. What do you have?
  21. Carvers Gap
    For folks who are new...Go to Tropical Tidbits, select the CMC from global models, choose 500 vort map from upper air dynamics tab, toggle to hour 66, and then use the previous run arrows to look at the last four runs. Look at the changes in that trough axis. GFS is similar but not nearly as pronounced.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The buckle/indentation on the eastern side of the 500 vort trough(you can see it around MI/IN) is not nearly as pronounced on earlier runs. That same feature is on both the GFS and CMC. That is pulling the base of that trough a bit more eastward and pulling that lee side slp northwest. That feature should give us a clue on future runs.
  23. Carvers Gap
    That is the sign of a pretty powerful signature for storm to do that. I simple neutral tilt trough will do the trick, and the system basically returns to that after it passes our longitude.
  24. Carvers Gap
    12 CMC is west with its axis and on the eastern side of the envelop. The 500 vort map evolution is interesting. @Holston_River_Rambler was on to something earlier when he mentioned the axis of this trough needed to be watched. At 60, there is a portion of that trough that tightens up, goes slightly negative for a time(before returning to neutral). This pulls the slp north and west. Powerhouse of a system. That buckle(near MI/IN) on the approaching side of the trough is pulling the system west on both the CMC and GFS. That is why we are seeing slp pop in areas along the Big Sandy River.
  25. Carvers Gap
    But man, the CMC just went freakin' bonkers.
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