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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Been quiet in here of late, so I will throw in some recent model observations and thoughts.... Looks like the expected ridge in the middle and eastern areas of NA(as the Euro Weeklies have shown) is likely by the second week of October and indeed fits Nina climatology. Seems like it will be at peak strength by mid-month. The really question is whether it holds or not. Lows in the GOA can be stubborn to move, but the Euro Weeklies do imply that a trough may re-emerge by the end of the month or the beginning of November. Again, it should be noted that the EPS and Euro Weeklies have struggled during the last few fall shoulder seasons. So, take with a HUGE grain of salt. Still, some nice weather on tap. Looks like Jeff may get his wishes with some beautiful weather for the leaf season. Wild card....As that ridge rolls eastward, that might open the door for tropical development. And we know that tropical development during October has yielded some crazy weather here. I would not be shocked if that occurred yet again. Seems to be a pattern of late.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Been in the mid 50s all day here. Around midnight it was 67, so the record for today will make it seem warmer than what it actually was. Drizzle, rain, mist....regular rain fest.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Great post! Wouldn't bother me a bit if it was in the winter thread or pattern thread.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, not really talking winter in my comments above. Just really looking at Oct and early Nov. Interestingly the 12z EPS AO/NAO couplet is negative for most of the run with not a lot of let-up. That said, it is really important to note(for newcomers) that EPS modeling is notoriously fickle at this time of year, even when there is consensus. What I do see is a GOA low which is going to have to "battle it out" with the AO/NAO couplet on modeling during mid October in order to see the primary driver. If the Nina is moderate, I don't disagree at all on a warm generally warm winter. My thoughts on winter are in the winter thread(I have a warm winter as well), and I don't have many changes at all up to this point. Now, if the Nina is weak AND cools MJO regions just west of the equatorial dateline...that might allow for periods of extreme cold to make it into our forum area. My theme is cold(even severe cold) 2-3 times this winter with long periods of AN temps in between. 1989 was a Nina year that was incredibly cold in December, and broke warm in Jan. It never let up. It can snow like crazy during weak La Nina winters in NE TN with lots of upslope snow. Moderate to strong La Nina's are generally busts.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I actually wasn't discouraged in regards to the Euro Weeklies, but I am only a hobbiest so maybe ignorant is bliss! LOL. Looks like the western ridge indeed rolls eastward around the 12th and then ridge gradually rebuilds out West around the 24th with the Aleutian low re-establishing itself after a period of AN heights which coincide with the warmth mid-month in the East. I don't look at Euro temps after week 3...they are nearly always warm. I just look at the 500 pattern. I did notice an area of blocking beginning to re-develop and was centered just north of HB late in the run. Honestly, looks like the high latitude pattern tries to roll forward mid-month and actually retrogrades back to a cooler look at 500 for the East. After listening to Jeff for many years, I have learned that the Weeklies give us a pretty good look at week 3 and have some skill during week 4. After that, just very broad generalizations. So take the reforming Aleutians low and HB block with a huge grain. With shoulder season now in full swing, the Euro Weeklies might struggle. All of that said, a warm time frame during Fall and during La Nina is well within the wheelhouse of climatology. I am actually pretty happy to see summer end on time for once. I will gladly take AN temps during October vs September.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Vol football Saturday and basketball season just around the corner. VERY excited about basketball this year. We have some legitimate depth at guard this year, and we all know that is a good mix for the post season.
  7. Carvers Gap
    For sure...And going back to last winter, it failed even more than that. Plus it is shoulder season, so plenty of reason for some solid skepticism...see that alliteration? But yeah, looks like it might verify at least in the short term anyway. Each run I am just expecting a correction which means the trough to head into the Mountain West. Sooooo, looks like a period of tough-i-ness followed by a near certain +NAO and SER for winter? Total speculation and just spitballing....If we hold to six week weather cycles which I do as a very rough rule....That gives us a trough until late October, then a ridge for six weeks, and a trough back by the end of December. I mean that kind of looks like what some LR modeling has, especially the Euro seasonal. But I still think we better score by mid-Jan. Looks very shaky after that if one is using both modeling and Nina climatology. That said, I wouldn't be surprised for a pattern with an eastern trough to hang around for some time, and then flip warm right as winter begins. 1989 will forever be remembered for that lesson. Great start...then torch city.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Posted this in the obs thread on accident...moved it to here. If you like a -AO, the Euro Weeklies are your huckleberry. Nice amplification still being depicted next week w an eastern trough. Hope that solution holds!!!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Especially after the September torch from last year!!!!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, there have been some wild looking solutions on modeling since the middle of the week last week. Odds are it dumps West like it did last time. LOL. Models seem to really like an eastern trough, only to back off as we get closer. That said, there is a pretty strong signal for very cold air to dump into the Lower 48 yet again this fall - already been significant cold into the northern Rockies. Right now, models are showing a strong amplification of the western ridge nearly into the Arctic on some models. Now, that sometimes allows the cold to buckle right underneath it into Montana and Wyoming. For now, modeling is sending it eastward. Then the fun begins as the pattern seems to hold with a deep eastern trough. The Euro/EPS are pretty much at the time of year where I don't trust them as much. However, what the EPS and operational are doing(and have been doing for a few days...weeklies caught it Thursday) is depicting a blocky pattern which does not want to budge. They did nearly the same thing a couple of weeks ago, only for it to revert to a western trough that buckled into the Rockies. That said, it is impressive what is being depicted nonetheless.
  11. Carvers Gap
    That is some pretty strong, high latitude blocking being shown by the operational Euro and EPS. Catches my attention for sure around the d10 range.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The Weeklies can easily fool me at this time of the year...but that is some crazy blocking in the HB and Greenland area at times during that run. Looks like the eastern trough amplifies fairly regularly with a few bouts of a ridge rolling through, but popping again out West. Jeff, feel free to add or subtract from those brief comments....I always look forward to the "Jeff update" on the Weeklies!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Some beautiful weekend wx upcoming once this tropical system exits. TRI is forecasting highs in the 70s with lows in the 40s. Much different than last Sept where we hit 90+ for roughly 14 days with multiple record highs. We have hit 90 only one time during this Sept. We are four degrees above normal right now, but that number should come down quickly after today.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, coastal states in the West are getting torched, literally. The recent snows and rain really helped the intermountain West. It was within about 48-72 hours of getting scary bad there. The snow storm put a dent in that danger. Now, does that threat come back in the intermountain West as that ridge rebuilds? IDK - maybe. The good things is that the days are getting shorter and temps at high elevation will start to cool off. For places like California and Oregon, not good at all with very little relief in sight.
  15. Carvers Gap
    We have been fooled once already this season, but the EPS is showing what I consider to be a significant pattern shift over NA with a big ridge holding out West with a low over the Aleutians. Not wasting much time going into the details. Pattern change is now within seven days though. Maybe those CPC maps are on the money. If so, we have MUCH cooler temps on the way and soon.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Worth a read from the MA forum regarding the +QBO in relation to Nina winters which follow a Nino.
  17. Carvers Gap
    CPC maps made today depict BN temps in the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week experimental forecast ranges. Not often one sees that. I will even settle for seasonal.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Whew! It was warm yesterday. Starting to get flashbacks of last September. Looks like a cool down is on the way for the latter third of the month. That said, we hit 90(or above) fourteen times last September. We have hit it zero times so far during this September at TRI. We may very well hit it today though, but still much improved! Watching cross country runners fight the heat yesterday afternoon....glad I was a spectator and glad there was some shade on the course!!! I have much respect for young people who can traverse a course in that heat and humidity.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Time to wake this place up after a few days nap. Looks like LR models are again signaling a cool-off in the East just after ten days(we know the drill when we hear "ten days"). Anyway, I suspect modeling is on to another shot of BN air entering the Lower 48 in the d10-16 time frame - maybe even a bit earlier. edit: Euro OP has it inside of d10.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Completely missed that last paragraph. My deepest apologies for not seeing that. How is it going Jax? Also, thanks for the consistent ENSO updates.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Hey, I actually like one big storm to take all of the leaves down!!!! LOL. I don't like getting nickel and dimed with leaf work. I like seeing howlers come through and just strip every leaf.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Nah...no jinx. Yeah, noticed those trends yesterday morning. They are very similar to last winter. Models dump cold west after an original false push eastward. But hey, it is not winter and I like seeing anomalous cold in the pattern early. Last September, the entire country was baking during Sept and Oct. Changing wavelengths will shake up the pattern...and those changing wavelengths appear to be occurring a bit early. It is possible that modeling just jumped the gun a bit. Wouldn't be surprised to see the cooler air dump eastward at some point shortly after the head fake time frame.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Rains have definitely increased IMBY. It looks like spring here with all of the green. So far this is the antithesis of September last year. Leaves should look awesome this year.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The seasonal CANSIPS which was released today looks much improved for Dec/Jan at 500. My interpretation is that model is touting a seasonal start to winter and then backing West sometime in early to mid January. Also, I would interpret that a flip to cold begins sometime in mid-late November. The model also implies there may be periodic pushes of cold during January before a full retreat to torch city for February. Very classic Nina pattern. Here is the Dec look which is not half bad with a. nice EPO/PNA ridge(more EPO than PNA for sure):
  25. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, I am game for a nice September and then a warmish Oct through mid-Nov. That might give us a colder start to winter, allow for a thaw, and then maybe steal a cold shot in late Jan/early Feb in the middle of warm wx.
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