Carvers Gap

Time will tell I guess in regards to winter. I still like my post from June regarding winter...I might change, but they still look reasonable. West gets winter early and East gets it for January and February. Definitely agree that October and September are normally poor indicators for winter...actually summers are also poor indicators of winter unless there is an ongoing drought. November can be a great indicator, but last year was definitely not. I do actually think -AOs during winter are fairly good for this area but have to be combined with some sort of forcing mechanism or the cold dumps West. Some sort of PNA/EPO ridge has generally led to some severe cold outbreaks during the past several winters with the -NAO being absent - just depends on whether there is a SER as to whether the cold dumps and holds mid-continent or rolls eastward. I didn't have access to Euro seasonal until today just before this post...of note, last winter that tool wast truly awful. This winter I have generally made a pact with myself not to give much credence to LR models past four weeks other than just to give them a passing glance as last winter they verified nearly opposite of actual weather. The Euro products are frustrating because they rarely forecast cold...not sure why that is. They have basically busted on the cold temps in the West, and they potentially may miss the Eastern trough that is forecast to develop next weekend. That said, the Euro products seem to do a better job with the 500 pattern which is good enough for me. I just filter out the AN temps under an eastern trough and know it will be seasonal to below. Indeed, the Euro seasonal does park the trough mid-continent with a lean West for DJ and then trough-ish Feb - weak Nino climo. Do I buy that this early? No. After last winter, just tough to trust any model past about three weeks. Regarding October as a benchmark, the one way one could use October to forecast December is if one can extrapolate out a pattern and know when a pattern will end. For example, if a trough does set-up shop in the East for mid-October and into part of November, one can probably guess that the much of December will likely be warm as that pattern breaks down and the SE ridge returns. Then, one might guess that the December SER pattern would break down by mid-January using the 4-6 week run for pattern cycles. That actually does fit the Euro seasonal 500 pattern, but not fall forecast. But right now, until the pattern actually re-establishes after this burst of shorter wavelengths...just tough to know much. The past few winters have not played nicely...and I expect this one to be similar. I am really neither encouraged or discouraged at this point, just glad the extreme heat is leaving and likely to stay gone regarding long stretches of 90s IMBY. I do realize that SE, middle, and west TN may have to battle the 90s a few more times. I don't ever expect much in terms of winter for October or November during any year, so no real disappointment there....just get me back close to average. Leaves...definitely a stall after some changes in August prior to these record high temps. I suspect they really get moving over the next two weeks. Probably will be a quick peak at higher elevations as fall storms will knock those leaves off quickly once they change. Looking like a Halloween peak here at TRI with oaks holding onto their leaves well into November and December. I have noticed that oaks have a real tendency to hold onto their leaves due to fall warm temps. Maples drop their leaves pretty quickly no matter what. So yeah, probably not a great year for leaves due to the ongoing drought and the extreme heat...It is possible that the extreme heat has slowed the leaves from turning and thus the cooler weather and rain will actually make for a decent change at lower elevations...just tough to tell. Definitely will be some consequence form the extreme heat. Glad it is gone. I suspect that the records set in October will be ones that might not be broken(in large numbers like this year) for many years to come thankfully. Severe heat is getting ready to hit the rearview mirror, but afraid I am going to have to sit through some bad football for a few more months. What a great September combo...high temps and bad football. At least one is likely gone. Whew! Long post...going to enjoy some TV for the rest of the day and tomorrow. Hopefully on Monday the LR hasn't gone to crap! LOL.

Plenty of conflicting signals for sure. Timing is so important to winter forecasts in terms of trough placement and whether or not cold air is available to fill the trough. Then if one wants snow, need storms included in the cold pattern with preferably no drought. If I had to list the things that I don't want to see show-up for winter they would probably be a drought and a positive AO. I don't like a positive NAO, but as John has noted, the NAO is less important if the AO can go strongly negative. Now, if we could get both to go negative, awesome. However, I think as you had noted earlier in the fall, that NAO has been negative a long time and is likely to flip positive at some point. So, a +PNA/-AO combo is probably our ticket and just tough to know if those will be in place DJF...but we do need to get out of this drought for two reasons. First, multiple rainfall chances during fall will likely equal multiple winter chances(assuming the pattern continues) if we can get cold air in place. Second, a severe drought might very well be a magnet for the SER.

18z GFS is some wildness....

Yeah, plenty of uncertainty for sure. I am not convinced that SER comes back(as a permanent feature) during the second half of October for more than a few days at a time (if that), but it has been a stubborn feature. When in doubt, bet the streak. With the MJO going into the COD, the ridge that was locked into the East might not actually stay. The GEFS and EPS and Euro Weeklies and the morning run of the the seasonal CFS(off the top of my head...check that) now show a stout ridge in the West w a decent Eastern trough during days 10-15. That has fooled many before including me, so need to see that inside of d10 before giving it credence - but some models actually have the reversal at days 8-9 now. What I am seeing certainly looks like a complete pattern flip over North America by weeks 3 or 4 of October....but just too far out to really "buy in" yet. I think the possibility of the ridge coming back is certainly on the table as it has been there for like ten months pretty consistently. However, I think maybe a more likely possibility is the the ridge might actually be gone for several weeks or more. Next couple of weeks will feature shorter wave lengths which will allow sharp warm-ups and sharp cold shots. I am starting to lean towards a trough establishing itself in the East...but the pattern has been for models to show this in the LR and then go right back to a SER in terms of actual verification. I actually like seeing that MJO go into the COD and seeing the daily SOI crash along with a falling QBO. So, if we actually have a weak El Nino...we could see a cool-ish November(a key indicator for John...and a good one) with maybe a pattern relaxation in December and back to cool wx for Jan/Feb. Right now my frame of reference is out of whack because "cool temps" are relative to this 90s stuff and even slightly AN seems to feel way better. I mean we set a record high up here today and the wx felt much better. LOL. Overall, I think we have several more warm days during the next ten days along with several seasonal or even BN days...but I think the possibility for a true pattern change is a much more realistic notion than say maybe a week ago. Honestly, I think we may see some pretty cold air masses moving in by the end of the month...but just a hunch. Would be pretty wild to have mid 90s to start the month for highs and mid 40s near the end of the month...probably more like mid 50s. Still, what a range.

TRI has officially tied the record high for today, October 4th. We are at 87 and went past the forecasted high. I suspected that might be a concern. Modeling had shown the front taking its time getting through NE TN. That along with very dry ground has likely allowed for temps to race beyond expected temps. Seven degrees cooler than yesterday, but a low hanging fruit record high...albeit from 1954. Shew. That should be the last of those posts for some time...Breeze is kicking up now. Might very well have been a downslope component this afternoon with winds out of the east. Relief is coming, but this pattern got in one more body blow today in NE TN.

The 12z CMC and GFS are not warm in the medium and LR...and that is not just d10-15 talk. Looks like a second front will come through next weekend and then a third after d10 if the GFS is to be believed...always a big "if." First frost is hinted at on both with even some fantasy flurries late in the run...though I would not be surprised if the models continue trending. Again, let's see if these trends hold...we have seen this before. So, I am just going to enjoy the purple and the blues of the anomaly parameters for now.

During the last ten years, we have seen two October snowstorms which mostly hit the mountains, but one had measurable snow on the ground in the Upstate of South Carolina! The winters that followed were total duds. We have seen a forest fire burn much of the area on both sides of Gatlinburg. And now we have seen record heat. As Windspeed noted above, we have been absolutely crushing record highs. And what is crazy, I would be a little surprised if this fall doesn't hold some more extremes...just has the feel for a pattern that is about to have some wild swings. As a kid I remember running around on Halloween in a t-shirt and burning up....and I remember running around in a heavy coat. But I want not more, ever again, of what this heat wave just did...no mas!

QBO has fallen to 8.25...if its pattern holds from previous drops, it likely drops fairly quickly at some point between now and winter. Glad to see it is still falling.

Another stellar run of both the 12z EPS and GEFS. Makes me nervous when those two are in sync, especially this far out. EPS(and GEFS) is showing more signs of a stable eastern trough in the d10-15....which actually teleconnects very well with 4 lobes of warm and 4 lobes of cold in the northern hemisphere. What is that called again? @Coach B I am ready to fire-up the wood stove.

Chattanooga is now the new king of hot. Wear your title proudly!

What is interesting in modeling is blocking up top, especially over the Hudson Bay, and a trough intermittently showing up east of Hawaii. The ridge that is portrayed sometimes over the HB is tricky. Sometimes it slides eastward and hooks up with the ridge over Greenland - not good for cold temps. However, sometimes it remains separate on some runs which is why I think there is so much dancing around by modeling. And sometimes that ridge sets up over the GL area which is not good either. Trends to watch and not a forecast. Just kicking around ideas.

6z GEFS and 0z EPS again look really decent. I did dare to peak at the CFS Monthly/Seasonal this morning and it is singing a similar tune. I am definitely gun shy as modeling across the board has signaled these changes before and totally whiffed. I also looked at the MJO and some modeling is showing it weakening into the COD. So, maybe there is something to this. I would be surprised if that ridge doesn't come back one last time, but trends right now are away from a ridge long term. Now, I am not calling for any winter like temps or anything like that, but....considering that we have been in the 90s for like forever, temps will feel much cooler even if average. So, some good signs this AM with the main emphasis being that whatever ridge pops back up...cold fronts build in the northern front range of the Rockies and barrel SE. No matter what comes after, really looking forward to next week. I am definitely aware of extracurricular HS activities that have had to be rescheduled due to the heat. So, for those folks out there practicing in this...relief should be welcome next week!

Impressive. Tomorrow will likely be worse and may set an all-time record for October that will not fall in our lifetimes and maybe not for another generation. The past couple of weeks is to heat what Jan 1985 was to cold. What is crazy is that Friday will be much cooler(by like ten degrees) than Thursday and still be within a couple of degrees of the record high for that day. Looks like next week should be awesome. Going to be 20-25 degrees cooler than tomorrow, maybe more. Shew, glad to see extended summer begin to ebb. Hoping that run of the 12z EPS holds. The 18z GEFS looked quite similar. Big trough just east of HI that should pop a -EPO. Fingers crossed.

Really nice run of the 12z EPS today as it keeps the ridge out of our area beginning Monday. Tries to establish and then gets beat down...pops back up in the nation's midsection. Cool down for NE TN beginning Friday(southern areas and mid-state see some rebound Sat and Sun of temps)...all areas with a nice cool down(in some cases the 24 hour temp change will be 25ish degrees) by Monday evening if things hold as is.

Some fairly chilly mid-day model runs by the 12z GFS and CMC with two fronts driving south next week. I did mention a bonus in banter...

So lettuce talk about the GFS after 300...this is in banter so that in itself is an acknowledgement of the situation and if that wasn't enough then I refer to "lettuce." To be clear...I don't think that is going to happen. However, both the Euro and the GFS have tried to dig a trough just far enough south that it grabs a tropical system and forms some extra-tropical something. I don't think that is out of the question. But the GFS today almost took that a step further....if that tropical system had been picked-up a shade earlier that would have likely meant yet another year with heavy, early mountain snows which we now know is the kiss of death for winter. All it will take is one powerful cold front(of which several have been shown after this weekend...no idea if any of those verify) to pick-up a rare GOM storm of which models have been hinting at for a few days. Now, I am all for it because it would rain here and we would ironically finish the summer the way that we began - wet. Anyway, this is a BIG "what if" post which is "way out there" so hence the reason for it being here.

Yeah, that ridge isn't going to get pushed down without a fight. I thought the Euro Weeklies actually looked decent for weeks 4-6(guess that would be late Oct or early Nov...I will have to go back and look as that is off the top of my head) with maybe some form of a trough over the EC developing then. Now, we all know how well those troughs have verified, but at some point it has to be right, right? LOL.. Also, seems like the AN is just AN and not much AN...more like upper 70s with averages in the low 70s. Just no more upper 80s and mid 90s please. Although, it wouldn't surprise me to see a high temp record or two set as a cold front heads SE and warming surges northeast along the front side of the front. I also thought there were actually some decent little fronts embedded within the overall daily pattern of the Weeklies this time - meaning the endless summer is over. But yeah, looks like weeks 2-3 is a return of the ridge(not a death ridge) with embedded cold fronts which periodically push it back. Overall, I am just ready to give Phoenix back its climatology - one more day!

Here you go.

....but the current heat ridge gets the W!!! LOL.

@mempho, how hot has it been in your area?

TRI is at 92 which I think officially breaks the all-time record high for October. Looking forward to this heat ridge being gone. Ridges fine. Mega ridges - no. Math/Met living large with .24" of rain! J/K

12z Euro brings some nice rain. Most of these totals, if not all for most areas, comes from the passage of the cold front early next week. I think this map gets most of the forum area. This is a ways out there so I am sure it will change. I like that the Euro has some consistency along with the GFS. And to think we were getting 1-2" minimum with every storm last spring! (I don't remember this prior, but the new upgrade allows for mass deletion of attachments.)

Much needed for sure. Really the run from Friday on has some very nice weather for E TN...though there is a slight rebound of temps over portions of the southern forum are over the weekend. Next week though...looks awesome! Pretty strong front rolled through early next week. Still a week out there...but better than looking at 16 days straight of +15F temps.

Getting back on track for pattern discussion...the latest 12z GFS has temps 20-30 degrees cooler than today. Bring it! Don't speak to me if it doesn't happen. LOL.

95 at 11:56AM... Yikes!!!!